ICT 2024 Mentorship \ Lecture #12 August 19, 2024(Wizard Version)
Summary
TLDRIn this episode, the speaker discusses trading strategies focusing on the Jackson Hall Symposium and its impact on market behavior, especially on TGIF days. They emphasize the importance of recognizing market patterns like the P3, institutional order flow, and the lunch macro for effective trading. The speaker also highlights the significance of observing these patterns over time to build confidence before executing trades, aiming for long-term bullish outcomes.
Takeaways
- đ Jackson Hall Symposium: The speaker suggests keeping an eye on the calendar for news around Wednesday, Thursday, or Friday, which can affect market behavior, completing the 'TGIF' cycle.
- đ Subscribe Reminder: The speaker reminds viewers to subscribe to their channel and give a thumbs up if they are new to the series.
- đ Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Week: The speaker mentions that if the market has shown TGIF on any of those days, it's considered a 'nonform Peril' week with low trading probability.
- đ ICT's Long-Term Bullish Outlook: The speaker states that ICT is long-term bullish and is not looking for sell opportunities unless there are unexpected geopolitical events.
- đ Trading Strategy: The speaker explains that ICT uses different contract sizes for buy and sell positions, with larger contracts for buys and smaller for sells.
- đ Price Action Analysis: The speaker discusses the importance of understanding price action, specifically targeting the minimum of a water block as the first target for trades.
- đ Volume Imbalance: The speaker highlights the significance of recognizing volume imbalances on the daily chart as part of the long-term target for trades.
- đ Trading Timeframes: The speaker emphasizes the importance of trading within specific timeframes, such as holding trades until 3 p.m. for optimal results.
- đ Lunch Macro: The speaker introduces the concept of the 'lunch macro', a period between 11:30 a.m. and 1:30 p.m. where the market may create a low to stop out profitable traders.
- đ Algorithmic Price Action: The speaker mentions that the market may use algorithmic trading to reach certain highs or lows, especially around 3:45 p.m. to close business for the day.
- đ Building Confidence: The speaker advises viewers to observe the market patterns month after month to build confidence before executing trades based on the discussed strategies.
Q & A
What is the main topic of the video?
-The main topic of the video is the explanation of the presenter's understanding of certain trading concepts and strategies, specifically focusing on the Jackson Hall Symposium and the TGIF market pattern.
What is the Jackson Hall Symposium mentioned in the video?
-The Jackson Hall Symposium is an event that the presenter suggests provides important market news, which can be found on the calendar and influences the market's TGIF pattern.
What does TGIF stand for in the context of the video?
-In the context of the video, TGIF stands for Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday, which are the days the presenter suggests to watch for market completion of certain patterns.
What is the significance of the TGF in the video?
-TGF is a term that the presenter mentions but does not explain in the video, indicating it is important for identifying nonform Peril weeks and for trading strategies, with a fuller explanation to be given in a future video.
Why does the presenter suggest focusing on Mondays for trading?
-The presenter suggests focusing on Mondays because they believe that is when the highest probability of significant price action will occur, especially in nonform Peril weeks.
What does the presenter mean by 'long-term bullish' in the context of ICT?
-The presenter means that ICT has a positive long-term outlook on the market, implying that they are generally looking for buying opportunities rather than selling.
What is the significance of the extreme contract size for buy and the lowest contract size for sell in the video?
-The presenter explains that when ICT is looking to buy, they use the extreme contract size, but when looking to sell, they use the lowest contract size, indicating a difference in the level of commitment to the trade based on market direction.
What is the P3 that the presenter refers to in the video?
-P3, as referred to in the video, seems to be a specific price action pattern or strategy that the presenter uses to predict market movements, which involves observing the market's opening and subsequent behavior.
What is the importance of the 9:30 candle in the trading strategy discussed in the video?
-The 9:30 candle is significant in the presenter's trading strategy as it represents the opening price of the market after 9:30 AM, which is used to identify entry points for trades.
What does the presenter mean by 'institutional order flow' and 'buy side liquidity'?
-The presenter refers to 'institutional order flow' as the market movement driven by large institutional trades, and 'buy side liquidity' as the point at which the market has enough buying pressure to reverse a downward trend.
What is the 'lunch macro' mentioned in the video, and how does it affect trading?
-The 'lunch macro' refers to the market behavior between 11:30 AM and 1:30 PM, during which the presenter suggests that the market may create a downward movement to stop out profitable buyers, allowing for a potential reversal.
What is the significance of the 3 p.m. and 3:45 p.m. time frames in the video?
-The 3 p.m. and 3:45 p.m. time frames are significant as they are presented as key times for the market to complete its business for the day, with the potential for significant price movements or reversals.
How does the presenter suggest building confidence in trading strategies?
-The presenter suggests observing the trading patterns month after month to build confidence before executing trades, rather than blindly following strategies without understanding.
Outlines
đ Trading Strategies and Market Analysis
The speaker introduces Episode 12 of the ICT mentorship series, focusing on trading strategies and market analysis. They mention the importance of subscribing and engaging with the channel. A clarification on 'Jackson Hall Symposium' is given, suggesting it's a significant event that traders should be aware of, as it may affect market behavior. The speaker emphasizes the 'TGIF' concept, indicating specific days when trading is less probable. They also discuss the long-term bullish stance of ICT and the strategy of using different contract sizes for buy and sell positions. The speaker provides a detailed explanation of price action, volume balance, and the significance of the P3 (Plan 3) in trading, suggesting that understanding these concepts can lead to successful trading outcomes.
đ Market Behavior and Entry Points
This paragraph delves into the specifics of market behavior, mentioning the importance of observing the 9:30 a.m. candlestick as a potential entry point for trades. The speaker explains the concept of institutional water flow and how it can be used to identify profitable trades. They also discuss the work of Larry Williams and ICT's interpretation of his trading philosophy, emphasizing the importance of buying below the opening price when the daily target is known. The speaker provides a detailed analysis of how to identify and capitalize on market manipulation and distribution patterns, concluding with the advice to observe these patterns over time to build trading confidence.
â° Trading Timing and Macro Patterns
The final paragraph discusses the importance of timing in trading, particularly focusing on the lunch macro between 11:30 a.m. and 1:30 p.m. The speaker explains how the market uses this period to stop out profitable traders, creating a new bias for the afternoon. They detail the process of identifying swing lows before 11:30 a.m. and how the market algorithm refers to these patterns post-lunch. The speaker also touches on the final algorithmic run around 3:45 p.m., which is used to close any remaining market imbalances. The paragraph concludes with a reminder to observe and understand these patterns before engaging in trades, and an invitation for feedback and questions from the audience.
Mindmap
Keywords
đĄICT
đĄJackson Hall Symposium
đĄTGIF
đĄPrice Action
đĄVolume Balance
đĄP3
đĄLiquidity
đĄManipulation
đĄDistribution
đĄ3 p.m. Candle
đĄLunch Macro
đĄEntry Point
đĄWilliams %R
đĄMacro
Highlights
Introduction to Episode 12 of ICT mentorship focusing on Jackson Hall Symposium and its impact on market behavior.
Explanation of 'TGIF' and its significance in identifying nonform Peril weeks for trading.
ICT's long-term bullish stance and trading strategy differences between buy and sell positions.
Importance of understanding market volume balance as a long-term target for ICT.
Concept of P3 and its role in market opening and trading patterns.
Use of 9:30 candlestick to determine market direction and entry points.
Larry Williams' approach to buying and its contrast with ICT's strategy.
The significance of observing institutional order flow and building trading confidence.
Lunch macro's effect on the market between 11:30 to 1:30 and its impact on stop-loss triggers.
Market behavior post-lunch macro and the algorithmic reference to bullish bias after 1:30 PM.
The final algorithmic run around 3:45 PM and its purpose in closing market imbalances.
Identification of key high and low points in market patterns for trading decisions.
The process of observing market patterns month over month to validate trading strategies.
Importance of not rushing to trade but observing and building confidence in strategies.
Summary of the episode's learnings and an invitation for feedback and questions from viewers.
Transcripts
hey folks welcome back to episode 12 ICT
2024 mentorship in this video I'm going
to explain my understanding as the way I
have already explained in previous
episodes so don't forget to give me the
thumbs up and don't forget to subscribe
to my channel if you are new before
starting this video I would love to
clear one word and that is Jackson Hall
Symposium you will get this information
from your calendar where you will see
some kind of news around Wednesday
Thursday or Friday by using those news
Mar Market is going to complete the
TGIF if you see that market has done
this TGIF uh in any of these days that
means Wednesday Thursday and Friday any
of these days then you you will treat
that specific week as a nonform Peril
week where trading is the low
probability where is the highest
probability is going to happen in Monday
okay so this is the information you
should write it down and you will look
for that TGF what is TGF I'm not going
to explain this by this specific video
maybe in another video I'll talk about
that TG so in that specific moment you
will actually look for Monday for a
better price action i' would love to
complete one more things just before
going to the price action and that is
ICT is long-term bullish so from your
his longer term he is bullish he's not
looking for sale if there is something
happen that is not expected in the
Middle East you know the Israel then
Iran Arab I mean all those countries
some kind of or or something that is not
expected in that type of situation IC
will start to look for sale for this
relatively equal Lo or S side liquidity
until then I will look for the buy and
when you will take a long he will use
his extreme contract size for buy but if
he wants to look for sell then he will
use the lowest contract size to take
sell I hope that it's clear to all of
you now let's go to the price action
those information please write it down
because it's important
over here when Market was around that
are then my I told that his first Target
is the Min of that specific water block
if it can go through this Min short then
this high and finally that specific
volume balance let me show you this
volume balance this candle close and
this candle close see this is a volume
imbalance from daily chart a perfect
nice volume balance that was ict's
long-term Target okay so he was looking
for that volume balance
at the same
time when I will be in uh lower time
frame I will talk about little bit about
the P3 that was explained by that
specific video one more time with the
live execution I mean the live examp
example okay this is the low see this is
the that line that is the low of that
candle and this candle high this is the
sell side imbalance by side inefficiency
keep that in your mind this is the S
side imbalance byy side inefficiency
from daily CH so this this is that that
like high of that bearish bar Gap I'm
going to my lower time
frame so this my lower time frame and
let me just make it fixed okay so over
here now what is P3 Market will open
here somewhere then it will trade little
lower this is the opening sorry uh let
me actually Market I'm not a good artist
so I don't I'm not good in marketing so
opening Market went lower that is the
manipulation then the distribution after
the distribution Market will go a little
lower and it will close over here this
is ict's P3 if you understand this P3 if
you already got the I that specific word
Jackson ho Symposium then you know in
Monday you are going to get a huge run
and you if you have already marked your
daily daily bias okay not daily bias
actually daily Target where Market can
reach for as per ICT he was looking for
that one volume balance so that was his
bias that market can reach until that
area if you have that in your mind then
you will be able to catch a huge run a
long run that buy is going to occur
below the opening price and you are
going to hold it until 3 p.m. so you can
see this is the 3 p.m. so where is 3
here this is the 3 p.m. okay 3 p.m.
candle so until that area you will be
able to hold your trade and after three
okay around three that is the time to
pay the Traders so you will actually try
to take the partial or you will try to
close your trade after three because
after three Market actually try to make
this type of lower move and then close
somewhere here so that high you will
expect is going to create around 300
p.m. sometimes you can see that market
actually went high that is also the
algorithmic price done because Market
was seeing this High look at this High
remember the uh daily bearish Fab high
that was the liquidity level so Market
actually went over there by using the
algorithm around 345 I'll talk about
that later when I'll be in one but until
3 p.m. you will hold your trade below
the opening then until 3 p.m. you will
hold it then you will start to pay
yourself so I hope that this P3 concept
is clear but I would love clear it
little bit more from 5 CH I would love
to show you that you will look for 9:30
candle okay so this is the 9:30 candle
the ex ex opening price The Tick of the
opening price around 930 before this 930
no prices uh you should not focus on
this price action so after po3 if you
know Market is going higher then after 9
U 9:30 Market went lower see it went
lower take that low and that low they
are relatively equal low see over there
they are relative equal L Market has
taken that relative equal loss Market
went higher there was the institutional
water flow in real I'll show it when
I'll be in one minute Che that is your
entry point you are going to hold it
until 3 p.m. then you will start to pay
yourself or maybe you will take some
partial then you will hold until that
line see this line that that was the
liquidity line okay and this liquid line
obviously this is the volume balance
which is which was I's last Target so P3
9:30 open you will start to look for
your opening not before 9:30 after that
if you are bullish you will expect this
type of lower move and that lower move
is the actually the manipulation it will
take some kind of liquidity as you can
see this low and that low there are
exactly clean lows Market has taken that
relatively equal L liquidity has taken
then Market went high up so you will try
to catch the Buy around that area ICT
actually refer Williams and Larry
Williams and as per ICT he Larry
Williams doesn't feel confident to buy
below the opening price he actually wait
for the expansion then he
uh he's confident to take the buy after
seeing the Run okay but ICT told us that
below the opening price that is the best
place to buy if you know that where is
your daily uh Target so where Market is
actually reaching for now I'm going to
remove this one I hope that until now
everything is clear to you because I'm
just telling the point just only the
point then nothing else so over here
this is that uh one minute check and as
you can see this is the the 930 open or
where is that 9:30 here this is that
specific 9:30 open okay then Market went
lower went higher this is the you know
uh whatever it is uh Market is Jagged
the liquidity all of the people who was
trying to buy they got stropped out then
finally Market went higher and I told in
his live that he wanted to see this will
close above the new day opening Gap so
this is your new opening Gap it went
above the new opening Gap closed over
there used this new opening Gap as a
support after that it has made this
parabol
cap little bigger so it has made this
parab cap around that area this portion
he wanted to see unfill that means some
portion of this parab cap will be
unfilled and as you can see this yellow
box this portion is absolutely open over
there Market trade that fair value cap
this called institutional order flow in
you are going to take your buy from
there and you are looking for this buy
side liquidity see this buy side
liquidity around that area that is your
buy side liquidity
a perfect setup over there and if you
really know where Market is reaching for
then you are going to hold it until 3
p.m. so this is actually your 3 p.m.
where is that uh here so until 3 p.m.
you are going to hold it and maybe you
will give take some partial over there
or you will close your trade it's up to
you that was the thinking of icts now
you are not going to Simply uh go to
your chart and push your button to that
institutional entry FL uh ENT sorry
Institution order flow ENT what you are
going to do in month and month you are
you should observe this type of Entry
then you will bu build your confidence
then you will push your button don't
just go to your chart and push your
button because IC told it is going to
work please don't do that first observe
it month and month then build your
confidence no this is going to work
every single time it's uh it's happening
again and again and again then push your
button over there okay otherwise please
don't push your button now I would love
to talk about the hour as you know that
market is going higher by anyhow you
know that your daily daily limit you
know that market is reaching for that
area from daily chart then around the
lunch hour where is the lunch hour is
going to create at 11:30 so from 11:30
to 1:30 is your lunch macro not before
that not after that that is your lunch
macro 11:30 to 1:30 okay so around 11:30
you will look this is the 11:30 candle
okay you will look be just before 11:30
the obvious swing low that should be
created after 10:30 so sorry not 10:30
after 10 so as you can see this is the
10 candle okay so here is the 10 this is
the 10 candle after that candle this
there is a low there is a low there is a
low you don't care about them you will
look for the low has created just before
11:30 which is obvious so as you can see
this is that look why you should look
for that and why you should think that
market is going to take that on whoever
who is going to be profitable by that
specific area sellers or buyers you can
see that simply who actually took the
buy they are the profitable Trader so
what they will do they will put their
stop- loss below that low which is just
before the
11:30 they will put their stop loss over
there so what Market will do by using
the lunch macro Market will stop them
out so whoever is profitable by taking
Buy and they trade their stops over
there they will be stopped out over
there by that lunch macro okay so lunch
macro is going to fall if you know
Market is going higher okay then Market
will take this stop them out whoever was
buying they will get stopped out at the
same time it has traded this new week
opening Gap and you can see that it has
traded this specific buy buy side
imbalance s side inefficiency it has
traded that buide imbalance s side
inefficiency then it is waiting for 130
so around that 130 so let me around that
130 this that 130 Market will refer back
what was going what was happening around
11:30 so until 11:30 what was the bias
bullish so Market is going to I the
algorithm is going to refer that same
same bias after 130 so as you can see
around 130 Market started to go higher
again and until 3 p.m. so where is 3
p.m. here uh until 3 p.m. Market went
higher okay perfectly it went
High the last macro the last algorithmic
run is going to create around 3:45 p.m.
that is the time where Market will
finish its business if something is
still untacked that means it was trying
to close that in sell side in imbalance
buy side inefficiency and Market didn't
close that liquidity all of this I mean
Gap Market didn't close until 345
so Market will use that 345 macro to
until the last of the day to close its
business over there so as you can see
around 345 Market went lower then boom
where did it came to this high of that s
side imbalance by side inefficiency this
is the highest high and remember this
the highest high this is the lowest low
show you the low there is the low okay
so open
manipulation hold distribution until
that high then Market went lower and
then close around that
area stopped there closed all of the
saleside imbalance by side inefficiency
then closed over here the very next day
Market open and trade that volume
balance I just didn't uh show it to you
but if you go to your chart you will see
that around 6 p.m. when the market open
uh around 6 p.m. it ex expand higher and
trade that volume balance so that was
the theme I have learned from IC episode
12 uh if it is helpful or if if it is uh
actually understandable for you guys
don't forget to give me the thumbs up
and don't forget to let me know if you
have any question regarding this episode
so until the next video cheers
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