Yuval Harari | Inteligencia artificial | Charlas del Futuro
Summary
TLDREl presente guion de video aborda la revolución de la inteligencia artificial y su impacto en la sociedad y la economía. Se destaca la 'gran desacoplación' entre inteligencia y conciencia, y cómo la IA avanza sin progreso en conciencia artificial. Plantea preguntas sobre el futuro de los humanos en un mundo donde las computadoras y los robots podrían superarlos en tareas relevantes, generando un debate sobre el rol de los seres conscientes y su utilidad en una economía dominada por la inteligencia artificial.
Takeaways
- 🧠 La revolución más importante en la historia podría ser la 'gran desacoplación' entre inteligencia y conciencia, algo que siempre antes se asociaba.
- 🤖 La inteligencia artificial avanza rápidamente, pero la conciencia artificial no ha progresado, manteniendo la diferencia entre lo que un ordenador puede hacer y lo que puede sentir.
- 🐙 La conciencia, difícil de definir, se asocia con la capacidad de sufrir, algo que los ordenadores y robots no experimentan a pesar de su inteligencia.
- 🔄 La naturaleza ha vinculado siempre la inteligencia con la conciencia, lo que plantea preguntas sobre la relevancia de cada una en el futuro.
- ⚔️ Los ejércitos, al ser pioneros en tecnología, muestran cómo la inteligencia es más valiosa que la conciencia en el desempeño de tareas militares.
- 🏥 La inteligencia artificial tiene el potencial de superar los límites de los médicos humanos, proporcionando diagnósticos más precisos basándose en una cantidad abrumadora de datos.
- 🚀 La IA puede superar los obstáculos técnicos una vez, lo que podría resultar en una mejora continua y sin límites en comparación con la formación de un médico humano.
- 🏭 La economía civil podría seguir el ejemplo del ejército, reemplazando a los humanos en tareas que la IA puede hacer mejor.
- 🕊️ La pregunta subyacente es si los humanos o la mayoría de ellos se volverán obsoletos si la IA supera su capacidad en trabajos relevantes para el sistema político, económico y militar.
- 🔮 No existe un campo de habilidades desconocido para la ciencia que pueda garantizar un rol único e inderogable para los humanos más allá de la inteligencia artificial.
- 🤔 La conciencia sigue siendo un misterio, y su papel en el procesamiento de información no está claro, lo que impide la integración de conciencia en máquinas.
- 🌐 La gran pregunta del siglo XXI es qué hacer con las masas humanas 'inútiles' en un futuro donde la IA podría superar a los humanos en todas las tareas relevantes.
Q & A
¿Qué revolución es probable que veamos en el próximo siglo según el discurso?
-Según el discurso, la revolución más importante que probablemente veremos en el próximo siglo es la 'gran desacoplación' entre inteligencia y conciencia, lo que podría ser la más significativa no solo en la historia sino también en la biología y la historia de la vida en la Tierra.
¿Cuál es la diferencia fundamental entre la inteligencia artificial y la conciencia artificial según el guion?
-La inteligencia artificial se refiere a la capacidad de las máquinas para realizar tareas que requieren inteligencia, mientras que la conciencia artificial implicaría la creación de una experiencia subjetiva, la habilidad de sufrir, algo que aún no se ha logrado.
¿Por qué la conciencia es difícil de explicar en palabras según el discurso?
-La conciencia es difícil de explicar porque se trata de experiencias subjetivas personales, como la habilidad de sufrir, que no se pueden transmitir de manera objetiva o cuantificada.
¿Cuál es la relación histórica entre inteligencia y conciencia según lo que se menciona en el guion?
-Hasta el momento, la inteligencia y la conciencia siempre han ido de la mano en la naturaleza; las cosas altamente inteligentes también eran conscientes.
¿Qué es lo que necesitan más, la inteligencia o la conciencia, según las necesidades del sistema, el ejército o la economía?
-Según el discurso, lo que se necesita para el sistema, el ejército y la economía es la inteligencia, ya que no requieren la capacidad de sufrir o la conciencia.
¿Cómo está cambiando la composición del ejército en la actualidad según el guion?
-El ejército está volviéndose más pequeño y dependiendo cada vez más de la tecnología avanzada para reemplazar a los soldados humanos, lo que hace que los humanos se vuelvan menos útiles en este contexto.
¿En qué áreas el discurso sugiere que la inteligencia artificial podría reemplazar a los humanos?
-El discurso menciona áreas como el diagnóstico médico y el manejo de vehículos, donde la inteligencia artificial podría ofrecer soluciones más precisas y eficientes que los humanos.
¿Por qué la inteligencia artificial podría ser un diagnóstico mejor que los médicos humanos según el guion?
-La inteligencia artificial tiene el potencial de conocer y actualizarse constantemente con toda la historia médica, la historia genética y los avances en investigación y medicamentos, lo que podría llevar a un diagnóstico más preciso.
¿Qué desafío económico y político se presenta con el desarrollo de la inteligencia artificial según el discurso?
-El desafío es cómo manejar la situación en la que la mayoría de los humanos podría volverse 'inútiles' en el mercado laboral debido a que la inteligencia artificial puede desempeñar tareas mejor que ellos.
¿Qué papel ha jugado la revolución industrial en la creación de una nueva clase social y cómo se relaciona esto con el futuro de la inteligencia artificial?
-La revolución industrial creó una nueva clase de proletariado urbano, y el discurso sugiere que la era de la inteligencia artificial podría crear una clase de humanos 'inútiles', lo que plantea un gran desafío político y económico similar.
¿Qué cuestiones abiertas deja el discurso sobre la conciencia y su relación con la inteligencia artificial?
-El discurso deja abierta la cuestión de si la conciencia tiene un propósito en el procesamiento de información y cómo podría integrarse en máquinas si se llega a entender su rol y naturaleza.
¿Cuál es la perspectiva del discurso sobre la posibilidad de que los humanos tengan habilidades únicas que la inteligencia artificial no pueda reemplazar?
-El discurso sugiere que, a partir de la visión científica actual, no hay razones para creer que los humanos tengan habilidades únicas que la inteligencia artificial no pueda eventualmente comprender o superar.
Outlines
🧠 La gran desacoplación entre inteligencia y conciencia
En este primer párrafo, se discute la revolución que se avecina en el siglo XXI, que implica una separación histórica entre la inteligencia y la conciencia. Se enfatiza la diferencia entre ambas, con la inteligencia asociada a la capacidad de realizar tareas y la conciencia a la experiencia subjetiva de sufrimiento. La charla señala que, a pesar del avance en la inteligencia artificial, no ha habido progreso en la conciencia artificial. La importancia de esta distinción surge cuando se considera la utilidad de la inteligencia en contextos militares, económicos y políticos, donde la conciencia no es necesaria, y se cuestiona el futuro de los seres conscientes en un mundo cada vez más inteligente pero no consciente.
🤖 El potencial de la inteligencia artificial en la medicina y el ejército
El segundo párrafo explora cómo la inteligencia artificial puede superar las limitaciones de los médicos humanos y los soldados, al tener acceso a una cantidad ilimitada de información y la capacidad de procesarla de manera más eficiente. Se compara el proceso de diagnóstico de una enfermedad por parte de un médico humano con las capacidades de un sistema de inteligencia artificial, que podría tener una precisión y conocimiento mucho mayores. Además, se menciona que, a diferencia de los humanos, la inteligencia artificial puede ser actualizada y corregida de manera colectiva, sin tener que pasar por el proceso de educación y entrenamiento de cada individuo.
🔧 La superación de las capacidades cognitivas humanas por la IA
Este tercer párrafo profundiza en la posibilidad de que la inteligencia artificial reemplace a los humanos en sus habilidades cognitivas. Se argumenta que, históricamente, los humanos han sido reemplazados en trabajos manuales por máquinas, y ahora podrían ser superados en tareas que requieren habilidades cognitivas por la IA. Se cuestiona si existen habilidades únicas del ser humano que la IA no podrá igualar, y se sugiere que, desde el punto de vista científico, no hay razones para creer que los seres humanos tengan una ventaja insuperable en el ámbito cognitivo.
🕊️ La conciencia y el futuro de la humanidad en la era de la IA
El último párrafo cuestiona el papel de la conciencia en la vida y su relación con las capacidades de procesamiento de la información. Aunque actualmente no se entiende completamente el origen o el propósito de la conciencia, se sugiere que, si la ciencia logra desentrañar su misterio, es posible que la inteligencia artificial eventualmente supere a los humanos en todos los aspectos relevantes para la sociedad. Se plantea la preocupante perspectiva de un futuro donde los humanos podrían ser considerados 'inútiles', y se compara esta situación con la creación de la clase proletaria durante la Revolución Industrial.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Revolución tecnológica
💡Inteligencia artificial
💡Conciencia artificial
💡Conciencia
💡Desacoplamiento
💡Economía
💡Militar
💡Médico
💡Trabajo
💡Humanidad
💡Algoritmos
Highlights
The coming century may witness the most significant revolution in history and biology, characterized by the 'great decoupling' of intelligence and consciousness.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is a hot topic, but artificial consciousness is not discussed as much, despite the two being fundamentally different.
Consciousness is challenging to define but can be understood as the ability to suffer, distinguishing it from mere intelligence.
There has been no progress in artificial consciousness despite advancements in AI, with computers remaining non-conscious.
Historically, intelligence and consciousness evolved together, but we are now seeing a separation in artificial systems.
The importance of intelligence over consciousness is becoming evident in practical applications such as the military and economy.
Armies are becoming less reliant on human soldiers, instead favoring advanced technology and AI for their intelligence.
The civilian economy may follow the military's lead, with AI and robots taking over tasks traditionally done by humans.
AI has the potential to outperform human doctors in diagnosing diseases by processing vast amounts of medical data and history.
The limitations of human doctors, such as time constraints and physical states, can be overcome by AI's consistent data processing.
AI can provide a level of diagnosis and medical advice that is not limited by human cognitive biases or errors.
The potential of AI to replace humans in the job market raises questions about the future usefulness of human labor.
The historical shift from manual to cognitive jobs may be followed by a shift away from human labor altogether as AI advances.
The uniqueness of human abilities is being challenged by the possibility that AI could eventually match or exceed human cognitive functions.
Science suggests that all organisms, including humans, are algorithms, which challenges the idea of inherent human superiority over AI.
The future may see humans becoming 'useless' in the context of work and economic contribution if AI outperforms them in all relevant tasks.
The lack of understanding of consciousness presents a significant challenge to replicating it in AI, despite progress in other areas.
The 21st century may need to address the socio-economic and political implications of a 'useless' human class, similar to historical shifts in labor dynamics.
Transcripts
okay so in contrast to the previous two
presentations I'm going to focus indeed
on more political and social and
economic questions and not on the
technical questions and what we are
about to see in the coming century is
probably maybe the most important
revolution not only in history but
actually in biology also in the history
of life on Earth we are facing what can
be called a great decoupling between two
things that always up till now went
together that is intelligence and
consciousness we have a lot of talk
about artificial intelligence but not
about artificial consciousness and
intelligence and consciousness are
completely different things and what is
consciousness very difficult to explain
in words it's our subjective experiences
to make a long story short consciousness
means the ability to suffer if you ask
yourself whether something is conscious
or not the easiest question to ask is
can this suffer this computer is very
intelligent it can do a lot of things
but it cannot suffer robots can do a lot
of things but they cannot suffer humans
suffer animals can suffer they have
consciousness and when we speak about
artificial intelligence and the amazing
development of artificial intelligence
and computers and robots over the last
few generations we need to remind
ourselves that there has been exactly
zero progress in artificial
consciousness computers today are not
even one iota more conscious than they
were thirty or sixty years ago as far as
we know they've absolutely zero
consciousness now the interesting thing
is
until today intelligence and
consciousness always went in
hand-in-hand in nature the only highly
intelligent things were also conscious
things so the question which of the two
is more important or how they relate to
one another
was maybe a pastime for philosophers but
it had no practical implications
whatsoever please none that we can think
about what we are seeing today and we
will see more and more as the 20th
century gathers momentum is that
intelligence is decoupling from
consciousness and we are learning to
create highly intelligent things which
are not conscious at all and then the
big question comes what is really
important for the system for the
military for the state for the economy
what do they need
do they need intelligence or
consciousness and the answer is obvious
they all need intelligence they don't
need consciousness armies don't need
consciousness they need just
intelligence and then the big question
comes what to do with conscious human
beings and conscious animals in a world
where you have far more intelligent but
none conscious computers and robots that
can do most things better than us to
take two examples from two important
fields first of all if you look at
armies today as in many previous cases
in history armies are leading the way
they are ahead of the pack they are
ahead of the civilian economy and in
armies we see that the human worries in
the 20th century armies were based
mainly on the recruitment of masses of
humans think about the large armies
millions of people in the armies of that
of the two world wars today humans at
least most humans are becoming
completely useless the armies are
becoming smaller and smaller
they still need highly qualified humans
in certain fields but they rely more and
more on advanced technology to replace
humans
soldiers the same thing we may see
happening in the civilian economy as
robots and computers and artificial
intelligence replaces humans in tasks
such as driving cars or in tasks such as
diagnosing diseases if you think what do
we need from doctors then one of the
main thing most doctors do is to
diagnose the disease diagnose your
disease and offer the best treatment and
come up with the best treatment the best
medicine now a human doctor when it
tries to diagnose your disease relies on
a few questions he or she is asking you
say you you woke up feeling bad and you
go to the clinic and you meet your
personal physician so the physician will
ask a few questions he or she may
remember if they're your personal
physician for many years they might
remember a few details about your
personal medical history
they might look up in their computer for
all kinds of previous diseases you may
have and they they try to correlate this
information with what your doctor knows
about different diseases and different
medicines no human doctor is able to
remember your entire medical history
no human doctor has the time especially
under the constraint of current
economics no human doctor has the time
unless you are very rich and there is
the doctor just for you but the ordinary
person the doctor usually have maybe
five minutes maybe 10 minutes to ask you
questions and to do some initial
examination no human doctor can be
familiar with all the diseases in the
world
no human good doctor can read every new
article published in every journal in
the world about every disease and every
new drug so there are lots of
limitations and of course the human
doctor is sometimes sick he sometimes
tired he or she may be a hungry or angry
now if you think about artificial
intelligence it's potentially can
overcome all these problems and
artificial intelligence can in principle
be familiar with your entire method
call history with your DNA scan with all
the blood pressure tests you ever do
you've ever taken it can be familiar at
the same time with the medical history
of all your family members all your
neighbors all the people in your city
all the people in the world it can be
familiar with all the diseases in the
world can be updated with all the new
information about every new research
about every new drug based on such
abilities it can provide much better
diagnosis for your disease than any
human doctor now we of course we are
still not there we're getting close
without official intelligence like IBM
Watson Watson but if you heard about it
we are not there yet
there are still many technical obstacles
but what we need to remind ourselves is
that we need to overcome these technical
obstacles only one incase of a human
doctor if you want to train a new doctor
you need to start to start from scratch
they learn many they go to medical
school for 10 years or 12 years and have
all kinds of further training and in the
end you get just one doctor in the case
of artificial intelligence even if it
costs a hundred billion dollar to solve
the current technical problem that still
prevent artificial intelligence from
replacing your doctor you just need to
solve it once and you get an infinite
number of doctors because the same
solution will apply to all cases so we
see that the potential of artificial
intelligence in in many fields is to
replace or to outperform and to replace
human beings in the job market and the
big economic and political question this
raises which we go to the 20th century
is whether humans or at least most
humans will become useless the usual
answer is that we've been here before
also a hundred years ago people were
afraid that industrialization and
mechanization will push humans out of
the job market and indeed
jobs that were performed by humans a
hundred or two hundred years ago in
agricultural industry out today
performed by robots and by computers but
it doesn't mean that humans are now
useless because humans just move to new
jobs especially in the services sectors
a jobs that require less manual
abilities physical abilities and more
cognitive abilities the really big
question is not whether there will be
new jobs in the 21st century obviously
there will be new jobs the question is
whether humans will be able to perform
the new jobs better than computers than
artificial intelligence and here the
answer is not so obvious it's not
obvious that we will always find
something that humans human intelligence
can do better than artificial
intelligence basically humans have just
two kinds of capabilities we know about
they have physical abilities and they
have cognitive abilities what happened
in the Industrial Revolution in the 19th
and 20th century is that robots and
machines replace outperformed humans in
physical abilities and replace them in
that field and then most humans moved at
least in advanced economies they moved
to work in jobs that require more
cognitive abilities
now when artificial intelligence might
outperform humans in cognitive abilities
we don't know of any third field of
ability that humans have and that will
enable them to find new jobs that
computers and artificial intelligence
cannot take from them very often in
science fiction movies when humans
compete against the robot or against the
computers and the computers seem
invincible but then in the final
climatic scene of a science fiction
movie
the humans almost always prevail because
it turns out that the humans have
something that the computer cannot even
stand usually it's love or something
like that but this is completely
divorced from what science is now
telling us about human beings in and
about human biology as far as at least
scientists concerned if we put science
fiction aside and if we put mythology
else' aside there is nothing that
science knows about human beings that
will forever remain beyond in principle
beyond the reach of artificial
intelligence of computer algorithms
because what science is telling us about
human beings about human biology the
great discovery of by of the biological
sciences over the last hundred and fifty
years since Darwin you can summarize the
whole of biology perhaps since Darwin in
three words organisms are algorithms the
every organism including Homo sapiens is
simply a collection of biochemical
algorithms shaped by natural selection
to maximize chances of survival and
reproduction we are now learning to
develop better and better
electronic algorithms and so we see the
the merger of the biological view of
existence of life with the mechanical
view of existence and of life and if
indeed organisms are simply a collection
of algorithms there is no reason why
there must be something that a
biochemical the biological organism that
bio biochemical algorithm can do and
that an electronic algorithm will never
be able to understand to decipher and to
outperform we are still quite far away
from there it will take several decades
if not several centuries but the writing
is already on the wall the question is
already staring us in the face the big
question of what will we do with all the
useless humans if and when electronic
algorithms even when robots and
computers with
artificial intelligence will indeed be
able to outperform humans in all the
tasks which are relevant to the
political and economic and military
system now there is a huge question mark
hanging over this entire discussion
which is the issue with which I began
this talk with and this is the issue of
consciousness at present we don't have
any algorithmic or biological
explanation for consciousness we don't
understand what might be the role of
consciousness in the in the data
processing of information and this is
why we can't implant consciousness so
far into computers or into robots it's
the one big hole in our understanding of
life the current scientific dogma says
that consciousness is some product or
by-product of biochemical and by an
electrochemical algorithms in the brain
but at present this is just a dogma
nobody can show how the firing of
millions of neurons in the brain can
actually create subjective experiences
of love or hate or anger or boredom and
more than that nobody really has an
explanation of what could be the use of
having such subjective experiences for
the survival and reproduction of a of
organisms but if the scientific dogma of
today is correct and eventually in 20
years or 50 years we will find the
explanation also for this riddle of
consciousness then it seems quite likely
that humans as we know them will in the
longer or shorter term will be
completely outperformed by artificial
intelligence in which case again the big
question the big economic and political
question of the 21st century with which
I will end this this talk is what to do
with all the useless humans just as in
the 19th century the Industrial
Revolution
created a massive new class of the urban
proletariat and much of the politics of
the 19th and 20th century evolve around
the question what to do with this
massive new class of the urban
proletariat so in the 21st century again
you will see the creation of a massive
new class of millions of useless humans
and the big political and economic
question will be what to do with these
useless masses thank you very much
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