Step by Step Averaging Down Saham Saat Harganya Lagi Turun yang Bikin Cuan Optimal

Mikirduit

3 Apr 202408:08

Summary

TLDRIn this video, Surya discusses the recent trend of foreign investors selling nearly Rp5 trillion worth of Indonesian stocks, causing the rupiah to weaken. He explains how this situation presents an opportunity for investors to average down their stock purchases. Surya outlines step-by-step strategies for averaging down, emphasizing the importance of technical analysis, identifying support levels, and proper allocation of investment funds. He also advises on avoiding common mistakes and provides guidelines tailored for different types of stocks. Viewers are encouraged to subscribe and join Mikir Dividen for more investment tips.

Takeaways

📉 Foreign investors sold nearly Rp5 trillion of Indonesian stocks from late March to early April 2024, causing a rise in the dollar and a fall in the rupiah to almost Rp16,000 per US dollar.
📈 The stock market decline presents an opportunity to average down, buying stocks at lower prices.
⚠️ Common mistakes in averaging down include investing too much at once and not considering further price drops.
🔍 Using technical analysis, such as identifying support levels, can help determine optimal points for averaging down.
📊 For example, if TLKM stock drops to Rp3,500 and shows signs of a rebound, this could be a good point to buy.
💡 Allocate only a portion of the investment capital at each support level to avoid running out of funds if prices drop further.
🛑 Avoid buying during a continuous price drop (catching a falling knife); wait for signs of stabilization.
👍 Averaging down is suitable for stocks with strong fundamentals and growth potential.
🧩 Different strategies, such as percentage-based buying or using a pyramid method, can help manage risk and optimize average costs.
📈 Mikir Dividen provides guidelines and plans for averaging down and up, tailored to different stock types and market conditions.

Q & A

What is the main topic discussed in the video script?
-The main topic discussed is the strategy of averaging down in stock investments, particularly in the context of the recent drop in Indonesian stock prices and foreign investors' net sales.
Why have foreign investors been selling Indonesian stocks recently?
-Foreign investors have sold nearly Rp5 trillion worth of Indonesian stocks from late March to early April 2024, causing a drop in demand for the Indonesian rupiah and leading to its depreciation.
What is the effect of foreign investors selling Indonesian stocks?
-The effect of foreign investors selling Indonesian stocks includes a rise in demand for the US dollar, leading to the weakening of the rupiah, and a significant drop in the Indonesian stock market.
What is 'averaging down' in stock investments?
-Averaging down is a strategy where an investor buys additional shares of a stock at a lower price than the original purchase price to reduce the average cost per share.
What are some common mistakes investors make when averaging down?
-Common mistakes include averaging down indiscriminately, using all available funds at once, and not considering the potential for further price drops.
Why is technical analysis important for averaging down?
-Technical analysis is important because it helps investors identify key support and resistance levels, making it possible to determine optimal points for buying more shares and minimizing risk.
What is the suggested strategy for buying shares when using technical analysis?
-The suggested strategy is to buy shares at support levels, but only after a green candle (indicating a potential rebound) appears, and to avoid buying during a downtrend without confirmation.
What is the 'support' in technical analysis?
-In technical analysis, 'support' refers to a price level where a stock tends to find buying interest as it falls, which could potentially lead to a price rebound.
What is a recommended approach for averaging down in Telkom shares?
-For Telkom shares, the recommended approach includes averaging down at the support level of 3,500, then again at 3,390 if prices fall further, but only buying when a green candle appears.
Why is it important to allocate funds strategically when averaging down?
-It's important to allocate funds strategically to ensure that you have enough capital to continue buying at lower levels if the price keeps dropping, rather than using all funds at once and missing out on better opportunities.
What is the 'pyramid' method in averaging down?
-The 'pyramid' method involves increasing the amount of investment as the stock price falls, starting with a smaller purchase and gradually increasing the investment amount to lower the average purchase price effectively.
What should investors consider about the fundamentals of a stock before averaging down?
-Investors should ensure that the stock has strong fundamentals, including solid growth prospects and good corporate governance, to minimize the risk of prolonged price declines.
How can the averaging down strategy differ for cyclical stocks like commodities?
-For cyclical stocks, the strategy involves making smaller initial purchases and increasing the investment more significantly at lower price levels, keeping in mind the potential for significant price fluctuations.
What is the benefit of leaving some cash reserve when averaging down?
-Leaving a cash reserve allows for flexibility in case of unforeseen price drops, ensuring that there is still capital available to take advantage of lower prices.
What is the 'averaging up' strategy and when is it used?
-The 'averaging up' strategy involves buying more shares as the stock price rises, which is used when the stock's price is increasing due to strong fundamentals and positive market conditions.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Foreign Investors' Net Sales and Rupiah Depreciation

Surya discusses the recent net sales by foreign investors in Indonesian stocks, amounting to nearly IDR 5 trillion from late March to early April 2024. This exodus has led to a surge in the demand for dollars, causing the rupiah to weaken to almost 16,000 per USD. He explains that despite the scary situation, this could be an opportunity for investors to average down or buy stocks at lower prices.

05:00

📊 Step-by-Step Guide to Averaging Down

Surya introduces the episode's focus: a step-by-step guide to averaging down without incurring significant losses. He emphasizes the importance of inviting friends and family to subscribe to his YouTube channel, Mikir Duit. He explains that while averaging down might seem simple, investors often make mistakes such as blindly buying more shares as prices drop without considering the potential for further declines.

📉 Common Mistakes in Averaging Down

Surya highlights common mistakes investors make when averaging down. These include going all-in at a single price point, which can be risky if the stock continues to fall. He explains that if the stock has strong fundamentals, it's usually safe to wait out the downturn. However, for stocks that are only temporarily popular, this can lead to long-term losses. Additionally, traders should avoid averaging down as their focus is on short-term gains.

🔍 Using Technical Analysis for Averaging Down

Surya recommends using technical analysis to determine the best points to average down. He explains that technical analysis isn't just for traders but is a tool for investors to identify optimal buy and sell points. Key concepts include support and resistance levels, which indicate potential buying opportunities when the price reaches these points. He advises spreading out buy points to manage risk better.

📈 Practical Example of Averaging Down with Telkom

Using Telkom stock as an example, Surya illustrates how to apply the averaging down strategy. He suggests buying in at specific support levels rather than all at once. For instance, if Telkom's price drops to 3,500 and shows signs of an uptick, investors should buy a portion of their planned investment. He advises against going all-in and recommends waiting for further support levels to buy more if necessary.

📉 Strategy for Averaging Down by Percentage Drop

Surya discusses an alternative method of averaging down by targeting specific percentage drops. For example, buying more shares of Telkom each time the price drops by 15%. He explains how to allocate investment capital proportionally across multiple buy points to manage risk effectively.

📊 Pyramiding Strategy for Averaging Down

Surya introduces the pyramiding strategy, where initial buy-ins are smaller, and subsequent purchases increase in size as the stock price drops. This approach aims to lower the average purchase price more effectively. He explains the benefits of this method, including better capital management and potential lower average costs.

📉 Averaging Down with Dividend Stocks

Surya explains how to average down with dividend-paying stocks. He advises determining buy points based on the stock's fair value and subsequent drops to cheaper levels. Using BBri as an example, he outlines how to allocate capital across different price points to maximize investment efficiency.

📈 Strategy for Cyclical Stocks

For cyclical stocks like those in the commodities sector, Surya suggests a different strategy. He explains how to allocate investment capital in stages, starting with a smaller percentage at fair value and increasing buy-ins as prices drop to cheaper levels. This method helps manage risk and allows for better average pricing.

💰 Averaging Up and Subscription Invitation

Surya concludes with a plan for averaging up, considering the reasons behind a stock's price increase. He encourages viewers to subscribe to Mikir Dividen for detailed guidelines on capital allocation and both averaging down and up strategies. He provides a link for viewers to join the subscription service.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Net sale

Net sale refers to the total sales after deducting returns, allowances, and discounts. In the video, it is mentioned that foreign investors have engaged in a net sale of Indonesian stocks worth nearly Rp5 trillion, indicating a significant withdrawal from the market.

💡Averaging down

Averaging down is an investment strategy where an investor buys more shares of a stock as its price declines, reducing the average cost per share. The video explains this strategy in detail, highlighting how it can be a good opportunity to buy stocks at lower prices but also warns of the risks involved.

💡Support and Resistance

Support and Resistance are key concepts in technical analysis. Support is a price level where a stock tends to find buying interest as it falls, while Resistance is a level where selling pressure might appear. The video discusses using these levels to identify buying opportunities during averaging down.

💡Fundamental analysis

Fundamental analysis involves evaluating a company's financial statements, health, competitors, and markets to determine its stock's intrinsic value. The video advises ensuring that the stocks chosen for averaging down have strong fundamentals to mitigate risks.

💡Candle

In technical analysis, a candle or candlestick represents price movement within a specific period. A green (or white) candle indicates a price increase, while a red (or black) candle shows a decrease. The video advises buying when a green candle appears after a stock hits a support level.

💡Floating loss

Floating loss refers to the current, unrealized loss on an investment still held in a portfolio. The video mentions using floating loss percentages as triggers for averaging down, suggesting buying more shares when the stock price drops by a certain percentage.

💡Technical analysis

Technical analysis involves using past market data, primarily price and volume, to forecast future price movements. The video discusses the importance of using technical analysis, even for long-term investors, to identify optimal entry points for averaging down.

💡Buy on weakness

Buy on weakness is a strategy where investors purchase shares when prices decline, betting that the lower prices will soon rise. The video suggests this approach as part of the averaging down strategy, particularly when a stock hits a support level and shows signs of recovery.

💡Pyramid method

The pyramid method is a strategy where an investor gradually increases their investment in a stock as its price declines, allocating more funds at lower prices. The video explains how this method can help in averaging down by lowering the average cost per share more effectively.

💡Dividend

A dividend is a payment made by a corporation to its shareholders, usually as a distribution of profits. The video mentions the importance of considering dividends when planning an averaging down strategy, as dividend-paying stocks might provide returns even when their prices fall.

Highlights

Investor asing net sale saham Indonesia hampir Rp5 triliun dari akhir Maret hingga awal April 2024.

Demand dolar naik menyebabkan rupiah melemah mendekati Rp.900 per dolar AS.

Strategi averaging down bisa menjadi peluang saat saham turun.

Kesalahan umum dalam averaging down adalah melakukan pembelian berlebihan terlalu cepat.

Penting untuk tidak all-in saat melakukan averaging down untuk mengelola risiko.

Analisis teknikal dapat membantu menemukan titik-titik support untuk averaging down.

Support merupakan titik terbawah yang potensial untuk membeli saham.

Breakdown support bisa menjadi sinyal untuk menunggu titik beli yang lebih jauh.

Contoh strategi averaging down untuk saham TLKM dengan menunggu di level support 3.390.

Pentingnya memilih saham dengan fundamental yang baik dan tidak terpengaruh oleh gejolak pasar.

Ketidakpastian psikologis bisa terjadi saat melakukan averaging down jika tidak terencana dengan baik.

Metode averaging down bisa menggunakan pendekatan piramida untuk mengurangi rata-rata harga beli.

Pola averaging down berbeda tergantung karakteristik saham, seperti cyclical atau growth.

Pentingnya memiliki alokasi modal yang terencana untuk setiap langkah averaging down.

Alokasi modal per saham bisa disesuaikan dengan fair value dan potensi penurunan harga lebih lanjut.