Michael Saylor Bitcoin 2024 Keynote Speech w/ Presentation Slides

Bitcoin Magazine
2 Aug 202437:08

Summary

TLDRIn this engaging talk, the speaker discusses the Bitcoin Revolution and its potential to transform the global economy. Highlighting the limitations of traditional financial and physical assets, he presents Bitcoin as a digital capital with an unparalleled lifespan and resistance to inflation and decay. The speaker advocates for a strategic shift towards Bitcoin, illustrating its value through historical trades and forecasting its significant impact on wealth accumulation by 2045, emphasizing the importance of embracing this technology for economic prosperity.

Takeaways

  • 🎙️ The speaker emphasizes the importance of embracing Bitcoin and new technology to revolutionize the global economy and overcome 20th-century limitations.
  • 🌐 The current global wealth is based on outdated ideas and technology, with Bitcoin offering a modern, digital alternative to traditional assets.
  • 📈 The speaker presents Bitcoin as a long-duration asset with an almost infinite lifespan, contrasting it with the limited lifespans of financial and physical assets.
  • 💰 The concept of 'useful life' of money is introduced, highlighting the cost of maintaining assets and how Bitcoin significantly reduces these costs.
  • 📊 A comparison of asset lifespans shows Bitcoin's potential to last thousands of years compared to traditional assets that may only last decades.
  • 🚀 The speaker forecasts Bitcoin's value to reach $13 million per coin by 2045, based on its current growth trajectory and adoption.
  • 🤖 The potential impact of AI and technology on the economy is discussed, suggesting that digital capital like Bitcoin will be favored over physical assets.
  • 💼 Strategies for individuals, corporations, and nations to leverage Bitcoin are suggested, including converting assets to Bitcoin and utilizing it as a store of value.
  • 🏦 The speaker advises against financial practices that dilute capital, such as high management fees and short-term assets, advocating for Bitcoin as a superior option.
  • 🌍 The potential for Bitcoin to be a game-changer for both wealthy and indebted nations is discussed, with strategies for each to maximize benefits.
  • 🔮 The script concludes with a call to action, urging the audience to consider Bitcoin seriously as a part of their financial strategy, as it has already proven its value and potential for growth.

Q & A

  • What is the main theme of the speaker's presentation?

    -The main theme of the speaker's presentation is the Bitcoin Revolution and the concept of rebuilding the global economy with digital capital.

  • What does the speaker suggest is the current state of the global economy?

    -The speaker suggests that the global economy is currently based on 20th-century ideas and technology, which is slow, expensive, and not conducive to prosperity in the 21st century.

  • What is the significance of the $900 trillion global wealth figure mentioned in the script?

    -The $900 trillion figure represents the total value of global wealth, which includes both physical and financial assets. The speaker uses this figure to highlight the relatively small proportion that Bitcoin currently represents within this wealth.

  • What is the 'useful life' equation presented by the speaker?

    -The 'useful life' equation presented by the speaker is 'Useful Life = Value of an asset / Cost to maintain that asset'. It is used to determine how long an asset can maintain its value before depreciation or decay.

  • How does the speaker relate Tesla's quote about the universe to the concept of money?

    -The speaker relates Tesla's quote by translating it into the 'physics of money', where energy equates to capital or wealth, frequency refers to the duration or lifespan of an asset, and vibration is associated with the trading or transformation of assets.

  • What challenges does the speaker identify with financial assets in terms of preserving capital?

    -The speaker identifies challenges such as inflation, tariffs, taxes, and other forms of dilution that reduce the value of financial assets over time, making them less effective for long-term capital preservation.

  • What is the speaker's view on physical assets as a means of preserving capital?

    -The speaker views physical assets as being subject to entropy, depreciation, and various forms of taxation and political interference, which limit their effectiveness as long-term stores of value.

  • What is the speaker's forecast for Bitcoin's role in the global economy by 2045?

    -The speaker forecasts that Bitcoin will become a significant part of the global economy, with a gradual deceleration of its growth rate until it is growing about twice as fast as the S&P index, predicting a value of $13 million per Bitcoin by 2045.

  • What strategies does the speaker recommend for individuals, corporations, and nations regarding Bitcoin?

    -The speaker recommends making Bitcoin a primary treasury asset, converting cash flows to Bitcoin, and using favorable laws and tax strategies to invest in Bitcoin. For corporations, this includes issuing equity or debt to buy Bitcoin when accretive. For nations, it involves reallocating treasury assets to Bitcoin and supporting its integration into the financial system.

  • What is the potential outcome if an individual or a nation adopts a 'triple Maxi' Bitcoin strategy according to the speaker?

    -Adopting a 'triple Maxi' Bitcoin strategy could lead to substantial wealth accumulation. For individuals, it could result in millions or even billions of dollars in wealth. For nations, it could transform a heavily indebted country into one with significant financial reserves, strengthening national security and financial stability.

Outlines

00:00

🚀 Introduction to the Bitcoin Revolution

The speaker expresses excitement about the gathering of Bitcoin enthusiasts in Nashville, a city known for music and freedom. They introduce the topic of the Bitcoin Revolution and the potential of digital capital to rebuild the global economy. The current financial system, based on 20th-century ideas and technology, is criticized for its inefficiencies and high costs. A chart is presented to illustrate the small proportion of global wealth held in Bitcoin, which is positioned as a significant yet undervalued asset. The speaker also introduces the concept of the 'physics of money,' relating energy, frequency, and vibration to the useful life and maintenance costs of assets.

05:02

💵 The Challenges of Financial and Physical Assets

The speaker discusses the limitations of financial assets like currencies and funds, which are subject to inflation, taxes, and management fees that erode their value over time. Examples are given, such as the Argentinian peso with its high inflation rate, and the costs associated with maintaining assets like hedge funds and mutual funds. Physical assets are also critiqued for their maintenance costs and vulnerability to depreciation, with the useful life of various assets ranging from years to decades. The speaker emphasizes the need for a better system to preserve capital against these forces.

10:05

🌐 The Emergence of Digital Capital

Bitcoin is introduced as a form of digital capital that is immune to the issues plaguing financial and physical assets. It is described as having an infinite lifespan, free from the effects of weather, entropy, and inflation. The speaker argues that Bitcoin is the solution to the economic dilemma of capital preservation, offering a transformative shift from traditional assets to digital ones. The potential lifespan of Bitcoin, when maintained through institutional-grade custodians or self-custody, is estimated to be in the thousands to hundreds of thousands of years, making it a revolutionary asset for capital preservation.

15:06

📈 Historical Trades and the Value of Bitcoin

The speaker recounts historical trades that resulted in significant wealth generation, such as the Dutch purchase of Manhattan and the Louisiana Purchase, to illustrate the potential of strategic asset acquisition. They then apply this concept to Bitcoin, suggesting that its value as a digital asset could be immense. The speaker provides a macro forecast for Bitcoin's growth, predicting its value in the coming decades and the impact it could have on global wealth distribution.

20:07

💼 Strategies for Individuals and Corporations

The speaker outlines various Bitcoin investment strategies for individuals and corporations, ranging from conservative to aggressive. They discuss the potential outcomes of these strategies, emphasizing the significant financial gains that can be achieved by allocating a large portion of assets to Bitcoin. The speaker also warns against risky practices such as margin trading and encourages maintaining a strong capital structure.

25:07

🏛️ Institutional and National Bitcoin Strategies

The speaker extends the discussion to institutions and nations, suggesting that they should modify their charters to invest in Bitcoin and reallocate from short-term to long-term assets. They also propose that nations should consider Bitcoin as part of their treasury strategy, offering various scenarios for how different levels of Bitcoin investment could impact national debt and wealth.

30:08

🌍 Global Implications and the Future of Bitcoin

The speaker contemplates the global implications of widespread Bitcoin adoption, predicting a shift in the value of various asset classes and the potential for Bitcoin to become a significant part of national and international financial strategies. They also consider the unique positions of wealthy and indebted nations in relation to Bitcoin and the potential for Bitcoin to enhance national security through its digital nature.

35:09

🏆 The Triple Maxi Strategy and the Future of Wealth

The speaker concludes by emphasizing the potential of the 'triple Maxi' strategy for individuals, corporations, and nations, suggesting that a full commitment to Bitcoin could lead to unprecedented wealth and financial security. They highlight the simplicity of the strategy and the transformative potential of Bitcoin, urging the audience to consider its long-term implications and the opportunities it presents.

🎉 Closing Remarks and the Bitcoin Conference

In the closing segment, the speaker quotes Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin, and reflects on the prophetic nature of his words regarding the potential of Bitcoin. The speaker then promotes an upcoming Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas, inviting the audience to participate in what is positioned as a significant event in the Bitcoin community.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that operates without a central bank or single administrator. It is the primary focus of the video, which discusses its role in the future of capital and its potential to revolutionize the global economy. The script mentions Bitcoin's current market share and its potential to grow to a significant portion of global wealth.

💡Digital Capital

Digital Capital refers to capital or assets that exist in digital form, such as cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. The video emphasizes the transition from traditional physical and financial assets to digital assets, highlighting the benefits of digital capital in terms of longevity, immutability, and resistance to inflation and physical decay.

💡Stock to Flow

Stock to Flow is a financial model used to estimate the value of commodities, including Bitcoin, based on their current supply (stock) and the rate at which new supply is created (flow). The video script uses this concept to discuss the lifespan and value maintenance of assets, particularly in the context of Bitcoin's scarcity and long-term potential.

💡Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, the purchasing power of currency is falling. The script discusses how inflation erodes the value of traditional financial assets and contrasts this with Bitcoin's potential as a store of value that is not subject to inflationary pressures.

💡Physical Assets

Physical assets are tangible properties such as real estate, vehicles, and commodities. The video script contrasts these with digital assets, pointing out the maintenance costs, depreciation, and other challenges associated with physical assets as stores of value, suggesting that they are less efficient compared to digital assets like Bitcoin.

💡Financial Assets

Financial assets include stocks, bonds, and other investment vehicles that derive value from their ability to generate cash flows or appreciate over time. The script argues that financial assets are subject to various forms of decay, such as inflation and taxation, which can significantly reduce their value over time.

💡Scarcity

Scarcity refers to the state where the demand for a resource exceeds its availability. In the context of the video, Bitcoin's scarcity is highlighted as a key attribute that could drive its value higher due to its capped supply of 21 million coins, unlike traditional currencies which can be printed in unlimited quantities.

💡Self-Custody

Self-custody in the context of Bitcoin refers to individuals managing and securing their own private keys, thereby having full control over their digital assets. The script promotes self-custody as a means to maintain control and security over one's Bitcoin holdings, as opposed to entrusting them to third-party custodians.

💡Macro Bitcoin Forecast

A macro Bitcoin forecast involves predicting the future performance and adoption of Bitcoin on a large scale, often considering economic trends and market dynamics. The video presents a forecast for Bitcoin's growth over the next two decades, suggesting that it could become a significant component of global wealth.

💡Triple Maxi Strategy

The Triple Maxi Strategy, as mentioned in the script, refers to an aggressive investment approach where an individual or entity allocates a large portion of their capital into Bitcoin, potentially using leverage. The video suggests that such a strategy could lead to substantial wealth accumulation if Bitcoin's value increases significantly over time.

💡National Bitcoin Strategy

A National Bitcoin Strategy would involve a country's approach to integrating Bitcoin into its economic and financial systems. The script suggests that countries should consider allocating a portion of their treasuries to Bitcoin and encouraging its adoption among citizens, which could potentially strengthen their financial security and economic growth.

Highlights

The speaker discusses the Bitcoin Revolution and the potential of digital capital to rebuild the global economy.

The world's economy is based on 20th-century ideas and technology, which are slow and expensive, hindering prosperity in the 21st century.

A chart is presented showing $900 trillion in global wealth, with Bitcoin as a small but significant asset.

The concept of energy, frequency, and vibration is applied to the physics of money, relating to the lifespan and maintenance of assets.

Financial assets like the Argentine peso and US dollar have limited lifespans due to inflation and other economic factors.

Physical assets, such as real estate and precious metals, also have a limited lifespan due to various forms of decay and taxes.

Bitcoin is presented as a solution with its immortal, immutable, and immaterial nature, offering an infinite lifespan for capital preservation.

The cost of maintaining Bitcoin is significantly lower than traditional assets, suggesting a 10,000-year lifespan for self-custodied Bitcoin.

A strategy for wealth accumulation is proposed, emphasizing the trade of temporary for permanent assets, such as Bitcoin.

Historical examples of great trades are given, such as the Dutch buying the best port in the new world for trinkets.

The value of digital capital is calculated, suggesting it could be worth hundreds of trillions of dollars.

A macro Bitcoin forecast is presented, predicting Bitcoin's value in the year 2045, ranging from $13 million to $49 million per coin.

Individual, corporate, and national Bitcoin strategies are discussed, with various levels of investment and commitment to Bitcoin.

The implications of adopting a Bitcoin strategy are explored, including potential wealth accumulation and national security benefits.

A call to action is made, encouraging the audience to consider Bitcoin as a significant part of their financial future.

The speaker concludes with a quote from Satoshi Nakamoto, emphasizing the potential of Bitcoin if it catches on widely.

Transcripts

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thank

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you thank

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[Music]

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[Applause]

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you what

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a what an awesome Gathering of

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bitcoiners I am delighted to be here in

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Nashville i c know for music a city

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known for freedom and uh I'm honored to

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to follow Senator Hagerty and uh address

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you

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today uh today I've decided to use

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slides and for those of you seen my

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presentations some are with slides some

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are without

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slides I got a lot of a lot of good

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comments on the ones with slides and so

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I figured the best way to make this

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presentation better was more

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slides so number go

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up and with uh with no no more delay I

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want to talk about the Bitcoin

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Revolution and I also want to talk about

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rebuilding our global economy with

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digital

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Capital the world as we know it it's

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based on 20th century ideas and 20th

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Century technology stocks trade 9:30 to

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4: unless there's a bank holiday you

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can't do things on the weekend

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everything is slow everything is

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expensive if we want to prosper in the

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21st century we need new ideas and they

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need to be based on new

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technology this chart you've seen before

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I popped it up it's $900 trillion do of

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global

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wealth it's that 900 trillion it's

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spread across physical assets and

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financial assets that are 20th century

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ideas 20th century technology and in the

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upper left corner is a little orange

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blip the little orange asset that could

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what we call Bitcoin it's one

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trillion it seems like a lot if you

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started with zero but when you look at

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it against the greater scheme of things

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in the world it's

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.1% here's another way to see that same

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chart it's not 900 trillion of assets

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it's a bunch of assets held for their

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utility value and a bunch of assets held

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as a store of value long-term capital

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when I buy a house I want to live in it

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but when I buy a bunch of bonds I just

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put my money there because I didn't know

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what else to do with the money and when

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you start to see the world as a big a

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big chunk of long-term capital

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$450 trillion or more of capital and you

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start to think about the way we store

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that Capital you see you see the engine

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for the

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revolution the global economy struggles

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because we're relying upon imperfect

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assets and imperfect systems to store

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that Capital it's crippling our Capital

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preservation so how do we engineer a

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better

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system well this is Tesla and Tesla had

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a quote he said you want understand the

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universe think in terms of energy

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frequency and

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vibration I'm going to translate that

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I'm going to talk about the physics of

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money now what are the physics of money

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energy is money or capital or wealth you

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could use them interchangeably for this

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speech frequency is about the duration

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or the lifespan how long will it take a

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minute an hour a year a century and and

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we vibrate money every time we trade

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with each other or we transfer from one

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local to another or we

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transform a a property into another type

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of

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asset and so here is an important uh

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important

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equation this is uh useful life is equal

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to the value of an

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asset divided by the cost to maintain

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Ain that asset um if you're looking for

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the useful life of your money in an

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asset then the way to figure it out is

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ask how much does it cost every year to

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maintain that asset in pristine

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condition what do I have to spend in

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order to avoid depreciation or

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Decay it turns out that that L that

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useful life is very close to something

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we know in the Bitcoin Community as

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stock to flow they're very related if

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you're measuring them in

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years many individuals and most

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corporations they use Financial assets

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to preserve

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capital and this is the source of a

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challenge for us let's talk about

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financial assets I want to keep my money

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for a long period of Time start with a

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billion dollars put it in the peso and

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the money is decaying in two years right

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a 98% inflation rate strips you of your

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eon ecomic energy or your Capital this

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is not a good long duration asset the

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Turkish lra your Capital last three

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years the US dollar under under

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traditional monetary inflation for the

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past Century might last 14 years but

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it's not like you have it for 14 years

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the life is being sucked out of you

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linearly over the 14

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years put your money in a head hedge

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fund what's the annual cost it's 2%

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management fee and then 20% of The

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Upside about 4% a year if you're

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investing in normal assets that means

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it's a 25-year

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asset

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treasuries you're going to get a yield

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but the 3 and a half% after tax yield

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goes against the 7% monetary inflation

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maybe your money last 30

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years capital and a mutual fund where

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you pay a 1% fee years that's about the

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best you're going to get if you manage

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to buy a diversified portfolio at 10

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basis points the counterparty risk is

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going to drive you to a 1% cost so those

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are your financial assets we're running

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the world on a 20th century set of ideas

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and on average a financial assets going

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to last you 30

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years we all know inflation dilutes the

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value of financial

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assets but inflation is just the tip of

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the iceberg

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you're also going to get diluted by

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tariffs and tolls and torts and

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transfers taxes we got all sorts of

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taxes income tax capital gains tax every

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time you vibrate and move the money you

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get taxed on the

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money and then if the taxes don't take

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you and and and the torch don't undo you

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you've got weather and competition and

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obsolesence and politics

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catastrophe those are the things that

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dilute the value of your capital over

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time and if if you want to maintain

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economic energy you have to fight

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against that

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friction well most people realize that's

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a frustrating Endeavor and it's a no win

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Endeavor so they give up on financial

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assets and they start turning to

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physical assets to preserve Capital well

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here's the physical asset of Ferrari not

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a good way to keep your money forever

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though because after 5 years you've

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spent as much on the insurance and the

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upkeep and the depreciation is it's

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worth Yachts aren't much better if you

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spend 10% of your money operating it you

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also get hit with depreciation don't

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store your money in

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Yachts a home in Miami Beach if you buy

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a $10 million house you better come up

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with $10 million to maintain the house

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over 17 years now you've got no money

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left silver 22 years a warehouse 40

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years maybe 50 years

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bar of gold 62 years a painting 72 years

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land the average property tax in the

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United States is

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1.1% that means your money is going to

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last 91 years unless the government

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reassesses the value of your property

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then it's going to last less than 91

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years the oldest family ranch in the

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United States is King Ranch they made it

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173 years every other family and the

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country

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failed and here's the here's the longest

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held property the crown estate in the

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United Kingdom you could say the royal

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family held it since

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1066 but on the other hand it passed

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from the

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plantagenets to the stewards through the

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lancasters and the Yorks and eventually

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found its way to the Handover family and

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so maybe seven different families split

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that none of them got to take it with

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them so physical assets you might think

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might last a thousand years probably

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about 50 to 75 years is the best you're

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going to do

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entropy is deluding the value of your

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physical assets it's sucking the capital

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the energy out of them there's a reason

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it's called Earth and not

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heaven because politicians are very

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creative they got a city tax a county

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tax a state tax a federal tax a transfer

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tax a Usage Tax on the property and if

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that doesn't get you there's rent

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control price control or a culture shock

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then you got competition you might get

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discriminated against there's recession

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the currency can collapse your tenants

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won't pay you someone will slip and fall

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on the front sidewalk and sue you

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there's weather War crime and

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catastrophe and if Energy prices go

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through the roof it's going to be hard

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for you to make a go of

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it physical cap capital is not a simple

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solution something I learned at

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MIT the three laws of

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thermodynamics you can't

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win you can't break

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even but you can't get out of the

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game so you could stop right here and be

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a little bit

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depressed but then again we don't want

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to lose

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so you start thinking what if we could

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find a way out of the

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game then we could break

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even then you could

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win Satoshi found a

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[Applause]

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way he gave it

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away and he went

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away and that's Bitcoin Bitcoin is

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digital Capital that's what he

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created bitcoin's Immortal immutable and

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immaterial capital and I use that in

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this sense it's it's got an infinite

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lifespan it's not being attacked by the

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forces of weather and entropy and

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inflation it's immaterial in the sense

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that it's not in the physical world it's

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not it's not suffering from all of those

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parade of horribles that the scourge of

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Financial and physical

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assets and it is the solution to our

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economic

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dilemma the transformation of our

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capital from financial and physical

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assets to digital assets it solves the

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problem that we're all

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facing now how long lived is Bitcoin

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well take your Bitcoin and put it at

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scale with a custodian an Institutional

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grade custodian you pay 10 basis points

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you know by the you know first law

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money that means you're going to last a

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thousand years the custodian might not

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last a thousand years but that doesn't

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matter because you can move the Bitcoin

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every year or every decade and you can

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stay one step ahead of the custodians

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failing you can't teleport a building

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you can't teleport to King Ranch you

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know and so Bitcoin is that is that

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thing that you can

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move say you custody your Bitcoin you

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can self- custody your Bitcoin for about

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one basis point a year assuming you buy

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good Hardware wallets and signing

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devices and spend a day a year to keep

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track of it now you've got a 10,000 year

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asset and what happens if you give it to

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the

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AI well the AI or a computer program can

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maintain those private keys for the cost

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of

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electricity you've got a 100,000 year

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asset the AIS are going to want the

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Bitcoin if they have a choice between

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owning the Bitcoin and owning The Ranch

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in Texas or owning the bar of gold or

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owning the Argentine peso it's pretty

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obvious what they're going to want and

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you can see here why they're going to

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want it digital assets are in a class

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all their own

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when you compare them to all the other

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assets that you can use for Capital

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preservation you can see they're off the

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scale everything else is living in the

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domain of 30 40 50 years and and you're

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in the domain of a thousand to 100,000

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years it's a breakthrough in capital

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preservation but it makes it a

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revolution in

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economics if you would be W if you would

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be rich trade wisely

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and here's very simple principle trade

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temporary for permanent trade s you know

play14:36

trade your ice cream cone that's melting

play14:39

for the peso the peso for the dollar the

play14:41

dollar for the land and the land for the

play14:44

Bitcoin trade the currency for Capital

play14:47

trade something fragile for something

play14:49

resilient trade something local for

play14:52

something global trade something

play14:54

physical for something digital trade the

play14:57

security for the commodity

play15:00

trade the commodity for the scarcity you

play15:03

can't go wrong moving in that direction

play15:05

so let's talk about some great trades in

play15:07

history some trillion dollar

play15:11

trades the Dutch understood Naval power

play15:14

they they understood ships they had

play15:16

thousands of them they bought the best

play15:18

port in the new world for a couple

play15:21

hundred dollars in plastic and textile

play15:26

Trinkets and that's worth two and a half

play15:29

trillion dollar

play15:30

today okay it's it was an investment

play15:33

that's returned 6% for 398 years

play15:36

straight it it's a

play15:38

10.5 billion

play15:40

x return and if you think about it

play15:43

you're like why why would I actually

play15:45

give up the best port in America for a

play15:48

bunch of textiles and plastic and glass

play15:51

but the people that sold the thing to

play15:53

them didn't understand Naval

play15:55

power if you don't appreciate the reason

play15:59

you're going to want the property you

play16:00

won't value the

play16:02

property Napoleon wanted to gallivant

play16:05

Across the old world and Jefferson

play16:07

wanted to expand in the new world so

play16:09

France sells Louisiana to the US for $15

play16:12

million in

play16:14

1803 the $15 million probably lasted a

play16:17

few months fueling the French army it's

play16:21

gone Jefferson got that he got 27% of

play16:25

the United

play16:26

States it's at 800 ,000 X return wor 12

play16:32

trillion or more it'll be worth more

play16:35

Jefferson had some Vision as did this

play16:38

man seart pays $7 million for Alaska two

play16:42

years after the country is decimated by

play16:44

the Civil

play16:46

War John D Rockefeller was trying to

play16:49

start an oil company today there's a

play16:51

trillion dollars of oil underneath

play16:54

Alaska it's a massive

play16:56

return for a piece of paper

play17:00

how much is digital Capital

play17:02

worth take the $450 trillion multiply by

play17:06

3% that's your entropy cost or your

play17:09

inflation cost it costs the world 13.5

play17:13

billion dollar a year to take to take

play17:16

all of those parade of horribles when

play17:18

they're trying to preserve their wealth

play17:20

if you put a 20 pte on it like you value

play17:23

a company or a long duration Bond that's

play17:25

worth $270

play17:27

trillion so digital capital is worth 10

play17:31

20 15 trillion a year and it's worth

play17:34

hundreds of trillions of

play17:36

dollars reality

play17:38

check is he full of

play17:40

BS well digital capital is returning 55%

play17:45

for the past four years Financial

play17:47

Capital the best in the world is the

play17:49

bond it's minus

play17:51

5% imagine capitalizing your company or

play17:55

your country on a minus 5% instead of a

play17:58

plus 50

play17:59

55% it's obviously

play18:02

working and now let's come back to my

play18:04

chart

play18:05

here Global wealth we can look at it

play18:08

like this and we see the little Bitcoin

play18:11

you know Square in the left

play18:15

corner but what's

play18:17

happening here's my macro Bitcoin

play18:20

forecast it's 21 years goes out to the

play18:24

year

play18:25

2045 what do I think will happen well

play18:27

I've got a barricade in a bull case but

play18:29

what I think will happen is that 55% AR

play18:33

goes to 50% 45 40 35 30 2520 it's

play18:39

between 50 and 20 it'll gradually

play18:42

decelerate till it's growing about twice

play18:44

as fast as the S&P

play18:46

index and at that rate bitcoin's $13

play18:50

million a coin in the year

play18:53

2045 13 million it could be it could be

play18:56

a 3 million barri case it could be a 49

play18:58

million bull case but what is bitcoin 7%

play19:02

of the world's assets

play19:04

then what about the rest of the

play19:07

assets well I actually think that Ai and

play19:11

Technology going to revolutionize Tech

play19:13

we had no companies worth the trillion

play19:15

then we had a bunch of trillion dollar

play19:16

companies you're going to see more

play19:19

because you're going to see companies

play19:20

with a 100,000 AIS and no employees and

play19:23

they're going to do the work of

play19:24

companies that used to have 100,000

play19:26

employees you're going to see Mega

play19:29

corpse develop you know shipping robots

play19:32

and self-driving cars and a company that

play19:35

gives a personal physician to a billion

play19:37

people without any doctors on the

play19:39

payroll so clearly Equity is going to

play19:41

grow fast Gold's going to get

play19:44

demonetized land will be less

play19:47

monetized but look here's the future in

play19:50

2045 doesn't look that revolutionary it

play19:52

looks like today it's just that Bitcoin

play19:55

is visible on the chart to you when

play19:58

Bitcoin is

play20:00

visible that's going to be the base case

play20:02

now what are the implications of

play20:06

this how do you make money well let's

play20:09

talk about individual Bitcoin strategy

play20:12

what should you do uh make Bitcoin your

play20:15

primary treasury asset convert your

play20:19

excess earnings to

play20:20

bitcoin utilize subsidized credit if the

play20:24

if the government will loan you money

play20:26

borrow the money at cheap rates and buy

play20:28

Bitcoin and find a tax efficient way to

play20:32

invest the Bitcoin what shouldn't you do

play20:35

don't quit your day

play20:37

job don't lose your focus on

play20:40

bitcoin don't use margin loans and trade

play20:43

with leverage you get wiped out while

play20:45

you're asleep on a Saturday night that's

play20:46

not good good 30-year loan for 3% back

play20:51

by the government on your land bad

play20:54

overnight 10x

play20:56

leverage so what's typical person well

play21:00

we actually model an individual and we

play21:03

said what if you had 750,000 in net

play21:06

assets and you made 200 Grand a year and

play21:09

you're going to make 5% more every year

play21:12

and you got a savings rate of

play21:14

25% and you can invest 50,000 a

play21:19

year well there's a lot of

play21:22

strategies you could be the Normie and

play21:24

do a normal strategy Diversified

play21:26

portfolio

play21:29

you can be a 10center and you can put

play21:31

10% of your assets into

play21:33

Bitcoin you can be a BTC Maxi and put

play21:36

80% of your assets and put 80% of your

play21:38

earnings into

play21:40

Bitcoin you could be a double Maxi and

play21:44

that's when you basically take an extra

play21:46

$250,000 loan against the

play21:49

house and then the triple Maxi is you

play21:51

finance the house for Bitcoin you buy

play21:54

Bitcoin you flip all your assets to

play21:57

bitcoin and then you move to a cheap tax

play21:59

jurisdiction where you actually can

play22:02

avoid some taxes and invest an extra 50

play22:04

Grand in Bitcoin maybe a Singapore UAE

play22:07

or

play22:08

something what's the

play22:11

result well this is the result the Normy

play22:13

ends up with 8 million in 21

play22:17

years the BT the 10center will more than

play22:20

double that the Maxi ins up with 100

play22:23

million the double Maxi 150 the triple

play22:26

Maxi 214 million

play22:29

you can see the power of Leverage and

play22:31

the choice is

play22:34

yours and you can also see you know it

play22:38

takes 15.9 Bitcoin to be a triple

play22:41

Maxi you know 6.25 Bitcoin will make you

play22:44

a wealthy

play22:47

person let's talk about

play22:51

corporations dues convert your Capital

play22:54

to BTC convert your cash flows to BTC

play22:58

issue Equity to buy BTC when it's

play23:00

accretive issue debt to buy BTC when

play23:03

it's accretive don't don't bleed your

play23:07

Capital with taxable dividends don't

play23:10

surrender your Capital with stock

play23:13

BuyBacks don't dilute your shareholders

play23:16

with risky overpriced m&a

play23:20

activity here's our typical Corporation

play23:23

$100 million of cash flow a billion

play23:25

dollars of Enterprise Value it's grow

play23:29

it's generating a lot of cash flow it

play23:31

share price is 100 bucks and now the

play23:34

issue is what's your strategy Normie

play23:38

Maxi double Maxi triple

play23:41

Maxi well the Normie is going to be okay

play23:43

you'll make you'll be have a $1,200

play23:45

stock price but just 10% allocation

play23:49

doubles it the Maxi is going to nearly 8

play23:53

exit the double Maxi

play23:56

$177,000 stock the triple Max ma he

play23:59

28,000 what kind of company do you want

play24:01

to

play24:03

run reality

play24:06

check this is a triple Maxi strategy at

play24:10

work right now this is micro

play24:20

strategy it will be it will be 48 months

play24:24

on August 10th of this year since we

play24:27

started down this road 48

play24:30

months and uh you know if you're running

play24:34

a company and there's 300 million

play24:36

companies out there if you're running a

play24:38

company and you think you can do what

play24:39

Microsoft and Apple and Google

play24:42

do then good for you you can get to a 20

play24:46

to 25%

play24:47

ARR if you want to copy

play24:50

Nvidia you will beat

play24:53

everybody but I think that right now in

play24:55

the boardrooms of Microsoft and Apple

play24:58

and Google and Tesla they're stressed

play25:00

out about copying

play25:03

Nvidia and the irony is it's easy to

play25:06

copy micro strategy I just gave you the

play25:09

Playbook it's

play25:19

simple this is how it compounds over

play25:21

four

play25:22

years right four years of doing that

play25:25

gets you to 1300%

play25:30

Improvement

play25:32

so bottom line build a strong capital

play25:36

structure avoid dilutive Financial

play25:39

practices let's talk about an

play25:41

institution you got a church a charity

play25:43

an endowment of Harvard you know any

play25:47

nonprofit what should you do modify your

play25:50

Charter to invest in

play25:53

BTC reallocate from short-term duration

play25:56

assets to long duration

play25:58

assets you know you wouldn't invest in

play26:01

ice cream cones don't invest in the peso

play26:04

but why are you holding 20-year

play26:05

financial instruments don't own 50y year

play26:09

physical land instruments buy a

play26:11

Thousand-Year instrument use BTC BTC is

play26:15

the cost of capital not the S&P the S&P

play26:19

is 133% BTC is

play26:23

55% right think of 55% that's your cost

play26:26

of capital and then use intelligence

play26:30

leverage okay here's our model a billion

play26:33

doll

play26:34

portfolio you want to be a Normy a maxi

play26:37

a triple Maxi here at the at the Maxi we

play26:41

just said put 100% in at the Double Maxi

play26:43

and triple Maxi is take 10% leverage and

play26:48

that's what happens you start with a

play26:50

billion dollars and in 21 years you'll

play26:52

have 5 billion of your enormi and you'll

play26:54

be patting yourself on the back talking

play26:56

about what a good job you've done

play26:57

managing the

play26:59

endowment but it could have been 300

play27:03

billion it could have been

play27:06

100x not that hard very

play27:11

straightforward now let's talk about

play27:13

Wealth of

play27:14

Nations this is the interesting one

play27:17

what's the national Bitcoin strategy dos

play27:20

and don'ts

play27:22

well reallocate your treasury from gold

play27:25

and bonds their short duration assets

play27:28

to a 10,000-year asset issue currency to

play27:33

buy Bitcoin issue debt to buy the

play27:35

Bitcoin encourage Bitcoin ownership with

play27:38

favorable laws protect self- custody for

play27:42

individuals and

play27:44

corporations and support integration

play27:46

with the banking system of your country

play27:49

those are all dues the don't don't

play27:51

pursue policies hostile to bitcoin and

play27:55

Bitcoin holders

play28:04

this one's not

play28:06

complicated now let's say you're an

play28:08

indebted country you're actually in debt

play28:10

you're running a a deficit I could name

play28:13

these countries but I won't I'm just

play28:15

going to say you owe a lot of money and

play28:18

you're struggling your interest rates

play28:19

are high and you don't know what to

play28:22

do well here's your strategies are you a

play28:25

normie or a 10center or a maxi double

play28:28

Maxi or triple

play28:30

Maxi the Maxi is you put a third of your

play28:33

treasury into this a double Maxi is

play28:37

65% and a triple Max is put all your

play28:39

treasury into it and start issuing

play28:43

debt for those of you who can actually

play28:45

read right the sub the sub text of this

play28:49

is the first country to buy Bitcoin by

play28:52

issuing its own currency

play28:55

wins this is simple you print

play29:01

paper remember that sewer check you

play29:04

issue the check you be like well you

play29:07

know you could whine oh we couldn't

play29:08

afford it you know it was two years

play29:11

after the Civil War the country was

play29:13

bankrupt millions of people are dead the

play29:17

south is in disrepair the north is angry

play29:20

and this guy Seward comes up with an

play29:22

idea to buy frozen tundra a lot of it

play29:25

from a bunch of Russians that wanted the

play29:27

paper

play29:29

okay so people have done things under

play29:33

worse situations but you can see here

play29:35

the Normy strategy is you owe $3

play29:37

trillion you're not getting anywhere the

play29:40

Maxi strategy pays off your

play29:42

debt the double Maxi strategy makes you

play29:45

rich the triple Maxi strategy makes you

play29:48

very

play29:49

rich why because you're buying the

play29:52

property that everybody is running to in

play29:54

a hundred years and you just go buy it

play29:57

now

play29:58

like Standard Oil was nothing there was

play30:01

no gasoline there were no automobiles we

play30:04

had no diesel locomotives in

play30:08

1867 we invented all that stuff but

play30:12

common sense says oh I can buy something

play30:14

that's equal to about 1 of the size of

play30:17

the nation for a few dollars why don't I

play30:18

just grab

play30:20

it Bitcoin strategy for wealthy foreign

play30:24

countries let's say you have a lot of

play30:25

money you know maybe you're Saudi Arabia

play30:28

Norway and you make a lot of

play30:31

money well what's your strategy you want

play30:33

to be a normie a maxi a double Maxi a

play30:37

maxi puts 25% of their money into

play30:39

Bitcoin a triple Maxi goes 75% and

play30:43

converts their surpluses into

play30:47

Bitcoin here's what happens you just get

play30:50

insanely

play30:51

Rich $58 trillion of rich but you know

play30:55

more than that this strengthens your

play30:57

National security because you end up

play30:59

with 50 trillion doll or more of digital

play31:04

Capital nobody can take you know they

play31:07

can't steal it right they bomb your

play31:08

country they invade your border they're

play31:11

not getting the

play31:12

Bitcoin right so this is good for your

play31:14

financial security and your National

play31:18

Security but note if you are Saudi

play31:21

Arabia or Norway and if you pursue the

play31:24

triple Maxi

play31:26

strategy sailor says it's very easy to

play31:29

do but it's 4.2 million Bitcoin you end

play31:34

up with at the end of that line that

play31:36

means there's not a lot of room for

play31:38

triple Maxis not at the nation state

play31:41

level right there's going to be one

play31:44

there might be two at some point right

play31:47

this is an opportunity for an aggressive

play31:50

mover you can have a lot of triple Maxi

play31:53

families and a lot of triple Maxi

play31:55

corporations not a lot of room for

play31:57

triple Ma Mai

play32:00

Nations and let's look at the US US is a

play32:03

special case well the rules are still

play32:06

the same right buy

play32:08

Bitcoin sell the paper get rid of your

play32:12

gold go long range and the don'ts are

play32:15

still the same don't harass the

play32:18

bitcoiners don't send the industry

play32:21

overseas don't send the capital overseas

play32:23

but what's our base case here well we

play32:26

you know we think that a I and new

play32:28

technology is going to drive growth I

play32:30

mean you know I'm going to assume that

play32:33

the United States is going to be run by

play32:35

competent Executives and they're going

play32:37

to harness technology and we're going to

play32:39

actually take advantage of AI and we're

play32:40

going to we're going to uh create robot

play32:43

cars and robots and you know billion

play32:47

person websites that give you free

play32:49

accounting and legal and medical advice

play32:52

and all that's going to grow our

play32:54

revenues faster than our grows our

play32:55

expenses and we'll eventually get to the

play32:57

point where interest rates come

play33:01

down but the question is what's the

play33:04

United States Bitcoin

play33:06

strategy and we could be normies you

play33:09

could be a 10center that's kind of like

play33:11

buying 500,000 Bitcoin you could buy a

play33:15

million Bitcoin a double Maxi is 2

play33:18

million Bitcoin a triple Maxi is by4

play33:22

million Bitcoin and then start sweeping

play33:25

the surplus of the nation when it comes

play33:27

into Bitcoin and the

play33:31

consequences well if you're a normie you

play33:33

know if you're a normie and you have

play33:35

great productivity growth and Brilliant

play33:37

technology and the robots do all the

play33:39

work for us you're still going to be in

play33:41

debt it just won't get much worse I mean

play33:44

that'll save us we need

play33:46

that if you're a maxi you'll pay off

play33:49

half the debt if you're a double Maxi

play33:52

you got a surplus and if you're a triple

play33:54

Maxi instead of owing 30 trillion the

play33:56

nation has 30 trillion right bit Bitcoin

play34:00

is not the solution to all our

play34:04

problems it is the solution to half our

play34:08

problems and the important point is the

play34:11

other half are very complicated they'll

play34:13

take a lot of people in energy this half

play34:16

is simple this is a very simple thing to

play34:18

solve half our

play34:20

problems so Bitcoin is cyber in

play34:23

Manhattan hundreds of trillions of

play34:26

dollars of capital going to go there

play34:28

we're going to demonetize Russian Tundra

play34:31

and Chinese real estate and everything

play34:33

in Africa and all of the crappy

play34:36

buildings everything anybody bought that

play34:38

they didn't need it's getting

play34:39

demonetized you buy a Bitcoin you oil

play34:42

building otherwise a Boulevard otherwise

play34:45

the entire neighborhood it's only 276 to

play34:49

the3 that's what you're looking at right

play34:51

now and I'm going to leave you with one

play34:55

quote Satoshi

play34:59

Nakamoto kicked off the Bitcoin Network

play35:01

January 3rd

play35:03

2009 on January 17th of 2009 14 days

play35:09

later 16 months before Pizza day when

play35:12

Bitcoin was worth nothing and it was not

play35:15

going to be worth anything for

play35:18

year Satoshi Nakamoto said it might make

play35:21

sense just to get some in case it

play35:23

catches on if enough people think the

play35:26

same way it becomes a self filling

play35:28

prophecy and never has have wiser words

play35:32

been spoken you're staring at a trillion

play35:35

dollars of

play35:36

proof but there's still thousand X to

play35:40

come and you have a lot more information

play35:43

in your fingertips the writing is on the

play35:46

wall Bitcoin is the future of capital

play35:49

it's the future of money it might make

play35:52

sense to get some because it has caught

play35:55

on thank you

play35:58

love you

play35:59

[Applause]

play36:25

Michael next year we are bringing the

play36:27

Bitcoin conference to the American West

play36:31

Las

play36:34

Vegas the brightest mines in the world

play36:38

will converge to deliver Bitcoin

play36:48

history buy your tickets now at B.T

play36:53

ccon

play36:56

sl202 for

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