Is Success Luck or Hard Work?

Summary

The video script explores the concept of egocentric bias, where individuals tend to overestimate their contributions and underestimate the role of luck in success. Using examples from sports, academics, and societal roles, it illustrates how this bias can distort our perception of fairness and generosity. The speaker suggests that acknowledging our fortunate circumstances can lead to a more accurate understanding of reality, increased likability, and gratitude, while also encouraging us to share our luck with others to level the playing field.

Takeaways

• 😀 The concept of egocentric bias is highlighted, where individuals often overestimate their own contributions and underestimate others', leading to a sum exceeding 100% when estimating collective efforts.
• 🏠 The example of housework distribution illustrates egocentric bias, where the total estimated work done by individuals within a couple often surpasses 100%.
• 🤔 The bias is not due to a desire to appear more helpful but stems from the vivid recollection of one's own actions compared to the less-noticed contributions of others.
• 🎖 The role of luck in success is often underestimated, as illustrated by the disproportionate number of professional hockey players born in the first quarter of the year.
• 📅 The advantage of being born early in the year for hockey players is due to the age cutoff date for leagues, which gives older, typically larger and stronger children an advantage that compounds over time.
• 🌐 Being born in a prosperous country is a significant form of luck, as it explains around half the variance in global income distribution.
• 💼 Successful individuals often attribute their achievements to skill and hard work, neglecting the role of luck, which can lead to a distorted view of reality and a lack of generosity.
• 🚀 The selection process for NASA astronauts exemplifies how even a small element of luck can significantly impact outcomes in highly competitive scenarios.
• 🤝 Acknowledging the role of luck can improve one's likability and foster a sense of gratitude, as people tend to appreciate those who recognize and give credit to fortunate circumstances.
• 💡 The video suggests a paradoxical approach to success: believing in one's control over destiny while also understanding the significant role of luck in achieving it.
• 🎁 The creator's initiative to give away snatoms kits to those who cannot afford them is an example of using one's good fortune to increase the luck of others.

Q & A

What is the concept of egocentric bias as discussed in the script?

Egocentric bias is the tendency for individuals to overestimate their own contributions to a task or situation and underestimate the contributions of others. It's the belief that one does more of the work or causes more of the problems, which is often not the case.

Why do people tend to think they do more work than they actually do?

People tend to think they do more work because they vividly experience and remember their own actions, but not necessarily those of others. This leads to an overestimation of one's own contributions and an underestimation of others'.

How does the script illustrate the role of luck in success using the example of hockey players?

The script points out that hockey players born in the first quarter of the year are more likely to become professionals due to being older and physically more developed than their peers in youth leagues. This advantage compounds over time, despite the initial difference diminishing as they grow older.

What is the significance of being born in January for hockey players in the context of the script?

Being born in January is significant because it means hockey players are older and typically larger and faster than their peers born later in the year, giving them an advantage in youth leagues, which can lead to more opportunities and a higher likelihood of professional success.

How does the script suggest that luck plays a role in the success of astronauts?

The script uses a hypothetical model where astronauts are selected based on a combination of skill and luck. Even with luck accounting for only 5% of the outcome, the simulation shows that the selected astronauts were very lucky, and their selection would have been different without the element of luck.

What is the paradoxical advice given for achieving success in the script?

The paradoxical advice is to believe that you are in complete control of your destiny and that success is due to your talent and hard work, while also acknowledging that this is not entirely true for anyone, including yourself, and that luck plays a significant role.

Why might downplaying the importance of chance events improve one's probability of success?

Downplaying the importance of chance events may improve one's probability of success because if an outcome is perceived as uncertain, one is less likely to invest effort in it, which can further decrease the chances of success. Believing in control can motivate greater effort.

How does the script relate the role of luck to the perception of inequality and societal status?

The script suggests that successful individuals who attribute their success to their own efforts may overlook the role of luck, leading them to justify societal inequality and their own privileged status, and potentially contributing less to societal support systems.

What is the 'snatoms' product mentioned in the script, and what is its purpose?

Snatoms is a molecular modeling kit invented by the script's author, where atoms snap together magnetically. It was created to address misconceptions about chemical bonds and energy, allowing users to feel the energy required to break bonds.

What is the initiative proposed by the script's author to increase the luck of others?

The author proposes a campaign where for each snatoms kit sold using a discount code, another kit will be given to someone who can't afford one, up to a limit of a hundred kits, as a way to share good fortune and potentially increase the luck of others.

Outlines

00:00

🤔 Egocentric Bias and Its Impact on Success Perception

This paragraph discusses the concept of egocentric bias, where individuals overestimate their contributions to shared tasks and underestimate the contributions of others. It uses examples from research, such as multi-author papers and housework distribution among couples, to illustrate how this bias can lead to a sum of contributions exceeding 100%. The speaker also touches on how this bias extends to problems and conflicts within relationships. The paragraph further explores the role of luck in success, using professional hockey players as an example to show how being born in the first quarter of the year can significantly increase the chances of becoming a professional due to age-related advantages in youth leagues. The speaker suggests that successful individuals often overlook the role of luck in their achievements, which can lead to a skewed perception of their own abilities and the influence of external factors.

05:01

🍀 The Role of Luck in Success and Its Psychological Implications

The second paragraph delves into the psychological aspects of success and the tendency to undervalue the role of luck. It suggests that downplaying chance events might paradoxically increase one's chances of success by maintaining motivation in the face of uncertainty. The speaker shares personal anecdotes about his YouTube journey and the unexpected benefits of not fully understanding the scope of one's challenges at the outset. The paragraph also examines societal implications, such as the justification of personal status and wealth based on perceived personal attributes, rather than acknowledging the influence of external factors. It discusses experiments that show how attributing success to personal qualities can lead to less generosity towards charitable causes. The speaker critiques the 'survivor bias' among successful individuals, who may not recognize the extent of their luck, leading to a distorted view of the world and a lack of empathy towards those less fortunate.

10:05

🎁 Embracing Luck and Fostering Generosity

In the final paragraph, the speaker reflects on the importance of acknowledging one's luck in achieving success and the responsibility that comes with it. He emphasizes the paradoxical advice of believing in one's control over destiny while recognizing the significant role of luck. The speaker proposes a plan to increase the luck of others by offering snatoms kits—a molecular modeling product he invented—to those who cannot afford them. He announces a promotional campaign where each snatoms kit purchased will result in a kit being donated, up to a limit of a hundred kits. The paragraph concludes with a heartfelt thanks to the audience for their support and the speaker's awareness of his good fortune.

Keywords

💡Egocentric bias

Egocentric bias refers to the tendency of individuals to overestimate their own contributions and underestimate those of others. In the video, this is illustrated through examples such as authors of multi-author papers claiming they did more work than the actual percentage of the work would allow, and couples overestimating their share of housework. This bias is relevant to the video's theme as it sets the stage for discussing how people often fail to recognize the role of luck in their success.

💡Luck

Luck, in the context of the video, is the element of chance or fortunate circumstances that can significantly influence outcomes, such as success in sports or careers. The video discusses how professional hockey players are more likely to be born in the first quarter of the year due to age-related advantages in youth leagues, which is a form of luck. Luck is a central theme of the video, emphasizing that success is not solely determined by skill or hard work.

💡Survivor bias

Survivor bias is the tendency to focus on the successful outcomes and overlook the failures. The video uses this concept to explain how successful people, such as business leaders and politicians, may have a distorted view of reality, believing that their success is solely due to their own efforts, rather than acknowledging the role of luck. This bias is crucial to understanding the video's message about the importance of recognizing the role of luck in success.

💡Hockey players

Hockey players are used in the video as an example to illustrate the impact of luck on success. The video points out that many hockey players selected into top-tier leagues are born in the first quarter of the year, which gives them a physical advantage in youth leagues. This example is used to demonstrate how early advantages, influenced by luck, can compound over time and lead to success.

💡Country of residence

The country of residence is highlighted in the video as a significant factor in determining one's economic success. The video mentions that around half the variance in income received by people worldwide is explained by their country of residence and its income distribution. This concept is used to show that being born in a prosperous country is a form of luck that can greatly influence one's financial success.

💡Skill score

In the video, a 'skill score' is a hypothetical measure used in a simulation to represent the abilities and qualifications of astronaut applicants. The video uses this concept to discuss how even with luck accounting for just 5% of the outcome, the selection of astronauts would be significantly different if luck were not a factor. This illustrates the video's broader point about the interplay between skill and luck in achieving success.

💡Astronaut selection

Astronaut selection is used as a case study in the video to demonstrate the role of luck in competitive scenarios. The video describes a simulation where astronauts are chosen based on a combination of skill and luck, showing that even a small percentage of luck can have a significant impact on the final selection. This example underscores the video's theme of the importance of acknowledging luck in success.

💡Inequality

Inequality is discussed in the video in relation to how people perceive their success and the success of others. The video suggests that those who are successful may be more inclined to attribute their achievements to their own abilities rather than external factors, which can lead to a justification of societal inequality. This concept is tied to the video's overall message about the need to recognize the role of luck in success.

💡Gratitude

Gratitude is emphasized in the video as a positive outcome of acknowledging the role of luck in one's success. The video suggests that recognizing the fortunate events that contribute to success can lead to feelings of gratitude and happiness. This concept is used to argue that acknowledging luck can not only bring individuals more in line with reality but also make them more likable and appreciative of their circumstances.

💡Snatoms

Snatoms is a molecular modeling kit invented by the video's host, which is used as an example of a product that can be used to increase the luck of others. The video proposes a campaign where for every snatoms kit purchased, another will be given to someone who cannot afford one. This initiative is presented as a way to spread good fortune and is related to the video's theme of the importance of acknowledging and sharing luck.

Highlights

Egocentric bias causes people to overestimate their own contributions and underestimate others', as seen in homeschooling and housework studies.

People also tend to attribute more problems and fights to themselves, not just work.

This bias can lead to underestimating the role of luck in success, such as being born in January increasing the chances of becoming a professional hockey player.

The cutoff date for youth hockey leagues creates a lasting advantage for those born earlier in the year.

Many successful people are unaware of the fortunate events that contributed to their success, like being born in a prosperous country.

Being born in a low-income country greatly limits one's earning potential, no matter how smart or hard-working they are.

Success requires both skill and luck, as seen in world record athletes benefiting from tailwinds.

In the NASA astronaut selection process, luck played a significant role even when accounting for only 5% of the outcome.

Downplaying the importance of luck may improve one's chances of success by increasing effort and perseverance.

Overlooking one's lucky breaks makes it easier to justify one's place in society and accept inequality.

People in positions of power often have a distorted view of reality, attributing their success solely to their own efforts.

Successful people may contribute less to maintaining the circumstances that enabled their success, due to survivor bias.

Acknowledging one's fortunate circumstances can make a person more likeable and foster gratitude.

Raising awareness of fortunate events can lead to increased happiness by allowing people to feel grateful.

The paradoxical advice for success is to believe in complete control of one's destiny while knowing that luck plays a significant role.

To increase the luck of others, the creator of snatoms offers a promotion where each kit sold provides one to someone in need.

Transcripts

During the COVID lockdown, this headline went viral:

"Nearly half of men say they do most of the homeschooling...

...three percent of women agree."

I bring this up not to debate who's right, but because it's a great example of something called egocentric bias:

Most people think they do most of the work.

For example, researchers have asked authors of multi-author papers

what percentage of the work they personally did,

and when they add up those percentages, the sum is on average

140 percent.

When couples are asked to estimate how much of the housework they do,

the combined total is almost always over 100%.

Now you might think this is because people want to appear more helpful than they actually are,

but that's not it.

When couples are asked what fraction of the fights they start or how much of the mess is theirs,

the total is again over a hundred. People think they do more of the work,

but they also think they cause more of the problems. So why is this?

I think it's simply because you experience and remember vividly all of what you do,

but not all of what everyone else does,

so naturally you overestimate your own contributions and underestimate others.

And I think this bias leads us to underestimate the influence of other things on our lives

like the role luck plays in our success.

Take hockey players, for example.

If you ask a professional hockey player how they managed to reach the NHL,

they might mention their hard work, determination, great coaches, their parents willingness to get up at 5 AM, and so on,

but they probably won't acknowledge how lucky they were to be born in January. And yet, in many years 40%

of hockey players selected into top tier leagues are born in the first quarter of the year, compared to just 10%

in the fourth quarter; an early birthday can make you up to four times as likely to be a pro hockey player.

And the reason for this disparity is presumably because the cutoff date for kids hockey leagues is January 1st.

Those born in the first part of the year are a little older and so on average bigger and faster than kids in their league born late in the year.

Now as they grow up, this difference should eventually shrink to nothing, but it doesn't.

Because the young kids who share the most promise are given more time on the ice and enter more tournaments, where they receive better coaching

and improve their skills. And these advantages compound year after year,

so by the time you get to the pros, birthdays are heavily skewed towards the start of the year.

But does any professional hockey player feel thankful for their birthday?

Probably not. And we are all like that, largely oblivious to the fortunate events that support our success.

Probably the most significant bit of luck many of us enjoy is being born into a prosperous country;

around half the variance in income received by people around the world is explained by their country of residence

and that country's income distribution.

If you were born in Burundi, for example, which has the world's lowest gross national income per capita of just 730 dollars a year,

it doesn't matter how smart or hard-working you are; you're unlikely to earn much as an adult.

Now many people get offended if you point out how big a role chance plays in their success

and I get it. If we are just a product of our circumstances,

then our hard work and our talent seem to count for nothing.

People think it has to be either skill or luck that explains success, but the truth is you need both.

Take these eight track and field world records: all the athletes who achieve these records are obviously

world class, extremely dedicated, and talented and yet, when they achieved their world records, seven out of eight had a tailwind.

Now these athletes all had the ability to win a gold medal, but to set the world record required a bit of luck as well.

The importance of luck increases the greater the number of applicants applying for just a few spaces.

Consider the most recent class of NASA astronauts.

From over 18,300 applicants in 2017,

only 11 were selected and went on to graduate from the astronaut training program.

Now we can make a toy model of the selection process.

Let's assume that astronauts are selected mostly based on skill,

experience, and hard work, but also say five percent as a result of luck — fortunate circumstances.

For each applicant, I randomly generated a skill score out of a hundred,

and I also randomly generated a luck score out of a hundred.

Then I added those numbers together, weighted in the 95-to-5 ratio to get an overall score.

This score represents the selector's judgments, meaning the top 11 by this metric would become astronauts.

And I repeated this simulation a thousand times representing a thousand different astronaut selections.

And what I found was the astronauts who were picked were very lucky; they had an average luck score of 94.7.

So how many of the selected astronauts would have been in the top 11 based on skill alone?

The answer was, on average, only 1.6.

That means, even with luck accounting for just 5% of the outcome, 9 or maybe 10 of the 11 applicants selected

would have been different if luck played no role at all.

When competition is fierce, being talented and hard-working is important, but it's not enough to guarantee success.

You also need to catch a break.

Largely, I think we're unaware of our good luck because, by definition, it's not something we did.

Like the housework done by your significant other, it goes unappreciated.

And here's the crazy thing:

Downplaying the importance of chance events may actually improve your probability of success because

if you perceive an outcome to be uncertain, you're less likely to invest effort in it, which further decreases your chances of success.

So, it's a useful delusion to believe you are in full control of your destiny.

I mean, if I had known how bad I was when I started YouTube or how much work it would take, I might have given up right then.

"Welcome to Veritasium:

an online science video blog."

Now there may be another benefit to overlooking your lucky breaks,

which is it makes it easier to justify your place in society:

if you have a lot of wealth or power, you can just chalk it up to your own intelligence, effort, and perseverance.

It makes it easier to accept inequality.

In one experiment, participants were put in groups of three in small rooms to discuss a complex moral problem,

and one person in each group was randomly designated the team leader.

Half an hour later, the experimenter came by with four cookies for each team.

So who got the extra cookie? In each case, it went to the team leader. Even though they had no special aptitude,

they didn't have extra responsibilities and they'd gotten their position through chance alone.

Once you have achieved a certain status,

it seems natural to feel like you deserve it and all the other good things that come your way.

Now this is just an anecdote,

but whenever I've been upgraded to fly a business class, I've always observed the worst behavior in my fellow privileged passengers;

they just act so entitled and uncourteous. And research has found evidence for this as well.

In another experiment, participants were asked to think of a good thing that happened to them recently,

and then one group was asked to list their own personal qualities or actions that made that good thing happen,

another group was asked to list external factors beyond their control that led to the event,

and a control group was simply asked to list reasons why the good thing happened.

Now for completing this task, participants were told they would be paid a dollar,

but at the end they were offered the option to donate some or all of the money to a charity.

Results showed those who listed their own personal attributes contributed 25% less

than those who listed external factors beyond their control.

Now think of what all this means for people in our society,

specifically for people in positions of power like business leaders and politicians.

Now undoubtedly most of them are talented and hard-working,

but they have also been luckier than most, and like most of us, they don't realize just how lucky they are.

And this gives them a distorted view of reality.

They're kind of living in a form of survivor bias: all these leaders have worked hard and ultimately succeeded,

so to them the world appears fair.

In their experience, it rewards hard work,

but what they don't have is the experience of all the people who have worked hard and failed.

So what are they to make of people less successful than themselves?

Well, the natural conclusion is that they must just be less talented or less hard-working,

and this perspective makes them less inclined to be generous — to give back.

And they are the ones who set the rules for how society operates.

And this is particularly unfortunate since one of the main ways many of us are lucky is in our country of residence.

But what is a country except for the things put there by people who came before?

The roads and the schools, public transport, emergency services, clean air and water, everything like that.

It seems a cruel trick of our psychology that successful people without any malice will credit their success largely to their own hard work and ingenuity,

and therefore contribute less to maintaining the very

circumstances that made that success possible in the first place.

The good news is that acknowledging our fortunate circumstances not only brings us more in line with reality,

it also makes us more likeable.

In a study where people had to read the transcript of a fictional 60-minutes interview with a biotech entrepreneur,

experimenters tried changing just the last paragraph where the interviewee is talking about the reasons for their company's success.

In one version, the entrepreneur personally takes credit for the success they've had,

but in the other, he says luck played a significant role.

Now people who read the luck version of the transcript judged the entrepreneur as kinder,

and thought they'd be more likely to be close friends with him than those who read the other version of the transcript.

And raising our awareness of fortunate events can also make us happier because it allows us to feel gratitude.

Personally, I am grateful to Michael Stevens of Vsauce,

who on October 7th, 2012, posted the video: "How Much Does a Shadow Weigh?",

which shouts out my slow-motion slinky drop video,

and within three days my subscribers had increased by a third, and within a month,

they had doubled, leading me to quit my part-time job and work exclusively on YouTube videos.

And I'm grateful to the writer of the free newspaper

they give out on the trains in Sydney who didn't quite understand electricity,

leading me to post this picture of their article to my Instagram with the caption: "What's wrong with this picture?"

And I'm lucky that the first person to answer correctly was a beautiful woman who became my future wife.

Yep!

That is how I met your mother.

Now initially, I wanted to make this video just to say our circumstances and psychology conspire to make us oblivious to our own luck.

This leads successful people to view the world as fair,

and those less successful than them as less talented or less hard-working.

And this is before you factor in any discrimination or prejudice.

But, it also became apparent to me that I should talk about what to do if you want to be successful in such a world,

and I think the best advice is paradoxical.

First, you must believe that you are in complete control of your destiny,

and that your success comes down only to your own talent and hard work.

But second, you've got to know that's not true for you or anyone else.

So you have to remember: if you do achieve success that luck played a significant role and given your good fortune,

you should do what you can to increase the luck of others.

Hey, so I had an idea for what I could do to increase the luck of others and that is to give away a hundred

snatoms kits to people who couldn't otherwise afford them.

So, if you didn't know snatoms is a product that I invented and kick-started five years ago.

It's a molecular modeling kit where all the atoms snap together magnetically.

Now, I made it because I really wanted to tackle the misconception that bonds store energy.

They don't. It takes energy to break them, and you can feel that with snatoms.

Recently, I completely retooled snatums. So there are small holes where the magnets are

This allows them to touch directly, increasing the bonding strength, so you can form bigger more stable molecules. I call these "snatomsX".

And yes, they are backwards compatible with original snatoms. So, here's my idea:

for the next month you can buy snatoms for 10% off using the code "giveluck"

and for each one sold, I will give a kit to someone who can't afford one, up to a limit of a hundred.

So, I'll put links and more details in the description, and I really want to thank you

for watching, and thank you for all my good luck.