Perspective : Assembly Elections 2023 | 18 January, 2023
Summary
TLDRIn this episode of Sunset Television's 'Perspective', host Vishal Dahiya discusses the upcoming assembly elections in Nagaland, Meghalaya, and Tripura, scheduled for February with results in March. With 62.8 lakh electors, these elections are crucial as BJP defends its power in Tripura, facing potential opposition alliances. In Meghalaya, NPP and BJP form the ruling coalition, while Nagaland sees a stable alliance led by NDPP. The discussion includes insights from experts on the political landscape, key issues, and the role of regional parties in shaping the outcomes.
Takeaways
- 🗳️ The Election Commission of India announced the schedule for assembly elections in Nagaland, Meghalaya, and Tripura.
- 📅 Voting for Tripura will be on 16th February, and for Nagaland and Meghalaya on 27th February, with results on 2nd March.
- 🗺️ The terms of the legislative assemblies in these three states are due to expire in March 2024.
- 🧑🤝🧑 There are over 6.28 million electors combined in these three northeastern states.
- 🏛️ BJP is the ruling party in Tripura with Chief Minister Dr. Manik Saha.
- 🤝 In Meghalaya, the ruling coalition consists of NPP and BJP with Conrad Sangma as the Chief Minister.
- 🗣️ In Nagaland, the ruling United Democratic Alliance includes NDPP, BJP, and NPF with Neiphiu Rio as the Chief Minister.
- 🔍 The elections in these states are expected to be interesting due to various political dynamics, including the rise of regional parties.
- 🏟️ BJP's stronghold in Tripura will be challenged by a potential alliance of opposition parties, including the Left and Trinamool Congress.
- 📊 Meghalaya has seen significant political changes, with Congress losing its stronghold and NPP emerging as a key player.
- ⚖️ In Nagaland, the NDPP-BJP alliance is stable, but the focus remains on development and the Naga political issue.
Q & A
What is the focus of the television show 'Perspective'?
-'Perspective' focuses on detailed analysis of key national and international issues.
Which states are mentioned as having upcoming assembly elections?
-Nagaland, Meghalaya, and Tripura.
When will the assembly elections be held in Tripura, Nagaland, and Meghalaya?
-The elections will be held on February 16 in Tripura and on February 27 in Nagaland and Meghalaya.
Who is the current Chief Minister of Tripura?
-Dr. Manik Saha.
Which parties form the ruling coalition in Meghalaya?
-The ruling coalition in Meghalaya is formed by the National People's Party (NPP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
What is the United Democratic Alliance in Nagaland composed of?
-The United Democratic Alliance in Nagaland is composed of the National Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP), the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the Naga People's Front (NPF).
What are some challenges faced by the BJP in Tripura?
-The BJP faces challenges such as infighting and factionalism, and the need to defend their performance against a potential grand alliance of opposition parties.
Who is the key figure in the emerging party in Tripura fighting for greater 'Thipra land'?
-Pradyot Bikram Manikya DebBarma, a former Congressman and young leader from the royal family of Tripura.
How many legislators does the BJP have in the Meghalaya assembly?
-The BJP has only two legislators in the Meghalaya assembly.
What is the current status of the Congress party in Meghalaya?
-The Congress party has seen a significant decline, going from 21 seats to zero in the recent assembly elections.
Outlines
🗳️ Overview of Upcoming Assembly Elections in Three Northeastern States
Vishal Dahiya introduces the topic of the assembly elections in Nagaland, Meghalaya, and Tripura. The Election Commission of India has announced the voting dates: Tripura on February 16, and Nagaland and Meghalaya on February 27. The results will be declared on March 2. The legislative terms in these states are set to expire in mid-March. There are over 62.8 lakh voters in total. The BJP is the ruling party in Tripura, the NPP-BJP coalition leads in Meghalaya, and the United Democratic Alliance governs Nagaland.
🔍 Analysis of Tripura's Political Landscape
Sandeep Fukun, a senior journalist, discusses the political scenario in Tripura, where the BJP is defending its position against a possible Grand Alliance of opposition parties. The left ruled for over two decades before being ousted by the BJP. The emergence of the Trinamool Congress adds to the political complexity. Internal factionalism within the BJP and a potential alliance with regional tribal parties led by former Congressman Pradyot Manikya make the election particularly interesting.
🗺️ Role of Tribal Parties and Alliances in Tripura
The discussion continues on the significance of tribal parties in Tripura, particularly the party formed by Pradyot Manikya from the royal family. His demand for 'Greater Tripura land' could influence alliances. Dr. Sunil K. Chaudhary weighs in on the potential impact of anti-incumbency against the BJP, the developmental benefits from national policies, and the ongoing economic integration in the Northeast, which could affect the BJP's performance in the state.
🌐 Political Dynamics in Meghalaya
David Letslong, a senior journalist from Meghalaya, highlights the political actions since the last elections. Despite winning only two seats, the BJP played a key role in forming the government with the NPP. The Congress, which was the single largest party, has seen a decline, losing many of its members to the NPP and other regional parties. The NPP is confident but faces challenges from regional parties and internal dynamics. The role of the Congress and its struggle to regain ground is also examined.
🏛️ Coalition Politics and Regional Dynamics in Nagaland
Lauren Sanglao from Nagaland discusses the coalition government of NDPP and BJP. The alliance seems stable with a 20-40 seat-sharing arrangement, but internal challenges and the influence of regional parties remain. The discussion also touches on the limitations faced by the NDPP in making decisions without the BJP's central leadership's approval. The regional parties' dynamics and the political scenario leading up to the elections are explored.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Assembly elections
💡Election Commission of India
💡Nagaland
💡Meghalaya
💡Tripura
💡BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party)
💡NPP (National People's Party)
💡Coalition government
💡Anti-incumbency
💡Greater Tipraland
💡Regional parties
Highlights
Announcement of assembly election schedule for Nagaland, Meghalaya, and Tripura.
Tripura elections to be held on February 16, Nagaland and Meghalaya on February 27, with results on March 2.
BJP is the ruling party in Tripura with Dr. Manik Sarkar as Chief Minister.
NPP and BJP form the ruling coalition in Meghalaya with Conrad Sangma as Chief Minister.
Nagaland's ruling coalition is the United Democratic Alliance comprising NDPP, BJP, and NPF with Neiphiu Rio as Chief Minister.
BJP will defend its performance in Tripura against a potential Grand Alliance of opposition parties.
BJP previously breached Tripura's long-standing left rule with a significant majority.
In Tripura, the emergence of the Trinamool Congress adds complexity to the political landscape.
Greater Tipraland movement led by a former Congress leader from Tripura's royal family might play a crucial role.
In Meghalaya, NPP leads the ruling coalition with BJP support, despite BJP having only two legislators.
The Congress, despite being the single largest party in previous Meghalaya elections, has seen its strength diminish significantly.
Nagaland's political landscape features a stable coalition with the NDPP and BJP, despite some internal challenges.
Regional parties in Nagaland rely on central government support for development and funding.
Meghalaya and Nagaland reflect the strength and complexity of coalition politics in northeastern states.
These northeastern state elections are crucial for BJP's strategy to increase its national footprint beyond traditional strongholds.
Transcripts
everyone
[Music]
namaskar and welcome to Sunset
television I'm Vishal dahiya and you're
watching our show perspective where we
bring you detailed analysis of key
National and international issues today
we're going to talk about the assembly
elections in three states now the
election commission of India on
Wednesday announced the schedule for
nagaland meghalaya and tripura assembly
elections voting for assembly elections
in tripura will be held on 16th of
February and nagaland and meghalaya on
27th of February the results will be
declared on 2nd of March the term of
legislative Assemblies of these three
states nagaland meghalaya and tripura
are due to expire on 12th March 15th
March and 22nd March respectively there
are more than 62.8 lakh electors
combined in these three Northeastern
states which are going to polls BJP is
the ruling party in tripura with Dr
manik sarkar as chief minister who took
over from biblab Dev in May 2022 NPP and
BJP form the ruling Coalition in
meghalaya with Conrad sangma of NPP as
the chief minister and the ruling
Coalition in nagaland is a United
Democratic Alliance comprising of
national Democratic Progressive Party
that is ndpp the BJP and the Naga
people's front npf with nephew of ndpp
as the chief minister so today we'll
take a look at what are the major key
issues here in these three particular
states which are going to polls and also
how interesting and important are these
elections going to be and for more on
this we're joined by a distinguished
panel of experts let me first introduce
them to you beginning with Mrs Sandy
fukun here joining me uh in the studio
senior journalists from Northeastern
State Assam only and keeps a very close
watch on all the developments out there
in those states have covered elections
there also Dr Sunil K choudhary is also
with us a professor of political science
from Delhi University and we have two
more uh you know senior journalists who
are joining us David letslong who's
joining us the senior journalist from
meghalaya and laureni sanglao from
kohima in in nagaland is also with us
welcome both of you also to Sunset
television
I'll begin with you Sandeep and let's
start by asking the obvious question one
is how interesting these elections are
going to be in these three states and
let's start with tripura only
all the three states they're small
states they are very beautiful States
all three of them
and they would also be politically quite
interesting uh tripura for the simple
reason that BJP is in power and they are
defending themselves against what could
possibly be a Grand Alliance
of opposition parties remember tripura
was the other Red Fort as it were you
know the left ruled continuously for
over two decades uh but that uh was sort
of breached by the BJP in the last
elections and uh and what a breach I
mean and with a huge majority yeah so it
was just they just got the left got
swept away the Congress has been fairly
weak uh there is also emergence of
trinamul Congress there
so these factors make it quite
interesting because BJP will have to
defend themselves or defend their
performance they haven't had it easy
remember they have had in in the course
of five years they've changed their
chief minister people of day was brought
into rajya Sabha and Dr manik sahas now
the chief minister there is infighting
and factionalism there but the
opposition also isn't really in a very
strong position Congress as I said is
much weak uh he's likely to play the
younger brothers role in
tripura I would assume that the left
would play a bigger role or the Big
Brother's role meghalaya is again
interesting Mr Conrad sangma we will go
to meghalaya Sandeep but but first
staying with how about uh you know uh
the smaller tribal parties in India in
fact I'm glad you actually stopped me
there yeah so the biggest Factor would
be an emerging party uh you know this
Allah
so this is uh formed by you know it's an
alliance of tribal parties formed by
former Congress you know Congressman uh
young leader
produce
from the royal family of tripura he's
been fighting for what he calls is
greater thipra land so greater tripura
land he says that whoever is willing to
give me in writing I will align with
them with that party or that Alliance
but he's also uh on several occasions
he's sort of reached out to
his former party and the left saying
that you know they should come and
support me okay and so I think there are
issues there because the left will
perhaps not agree with uh you know
greater thibraland or may have
reservations I wouldn't know whether
they would agree at this point or not
but those are issues that they will have
to settle but yes he is going to play a
big role in terms of being a king maker
in tripura okay okay and the other
states as I said well we'll come to the
we'll come to the other states one by
one but let me first bring in Dr
Chaudhary here as well on on tripura Dr
Chaudhary do you agree that you know uh
given the kind of picture which uh
Sandeep here painted is going to be
really interesting a BJP which emerged
Victorious with a huge majority uh you
know in in previous elections and this
time around the left which was Swept
Away live you know aligning with
Congress it's uh one time uh you know
political enemy in the state yeah uh in
fact one has to see that that the
anti-bjp parties it is led by left or
the other civil society organizations or
those the tribal organizations how
effective they can just uh Place their
candidates Visa BJP candidates in this
state uh I would say that uh anti-income
one has to see because the change of
leadership in BJP might give this
feeling of Fantine compensation in the
state but keeping view the landslide
Victory with which BJP won the state
last time uh challenging this left
domain over there over a I mean left has
been dominating the state for past so
many elections so one has to see that
whether this anti-in governments is
still surviving over there or not but I
would say that this the national
policies which are actually percolated
down to the tripura besides other three
states other two states uh one could see
that this actual realization of this at
East policy where tripura was a major
beneficiary besides other states uh one
could see whether this anti-incumbency
would be there keeping you the
developmental planks of the state
government and the national politics
there
secondly I would see that
the Northeast as a whole
there is more a shift from cultural
integration to economic integration okay
and BJP has been instrumental in the
state leadership has been very
Progressive in taking those
developmental benefits to the state of
tripura so bringing that into point one
could see that
BJP would be winning the elections or
the how strong their position would be
in countering the Electoral gains so the
BJP one has to see okay indeed it's
going to be a very interesting battle
out there in tripura let's now uh shift
Focus to uh meghalaya David that's long
is with us David you know when we look
at meghalaya of course there has been a
lot of political action over the past a
few years starting from the time when
the results for the previous elections
were declared now in these elections how
do you see you know things moving ahead
the ruling Alliance NPP and BJP
um the ruling Alliance the NPP and BJP
uh if you were to call it because the
BJP has only two uh legislators and uh
yet they did manage to uh come in and
um be instrumental in forming the
government because when in 18 the
Congress was the single largest with 21
seats and uh no one actually expected uh
that it would be a non-congress
government however the carpet was swept
uh you know very swiftly and yes the BJP
was instrumental in getting the NPP to
put together a coalition
uh very uh ably supported by the UDP
which was then the largest uh the second
largest uh the largest regional party
with eight uh legislators and then
subsequently other smaller Regional
parties uh came into the fall and yes
they manage and ever since the NPP LED
uh and BJP supported uh magular
Democratic Alliance government uh held
the range of power so
if you were to say uh that from a very
clear perspective from on what uh people
have seen is that uh though the BJP uh
may not have one uh
you know many seats two out of 60 is
seriously insignificant but they did
manage to uh take charge they did manage
to keep the NPP and everybody together
and so yes uh what the people are keen
and uh the voters are actually
interested into is into seeing how
proactive and how a more uh upfront the
BJP would be because today it's always
it's just been the NPP that's been
branding itself uh the BJP hasn't done
so uh the the regional parties have also
left all The Branding of governance to
the NPP so whether it is a team
submission of the fact that uh come what
may will go uh you know to the uh to the
biggest or to the best bidder okay that
remains to be seen having said that yes
the NPP is is very confident that it
would resume power it would again come
back but at the ground it does not seem
to appear that way and like you you know
when you you started you said magler has
always been full of surprises yes indeed
uh Mega has always sprung all kinds of
surprises when it comes to political
Dynamics so looking at this I would say
oh
right now it it appears that uh the
battle is said it remains to be seen on
how the regional parties take the game
forward and take the war forward the NPP
has a game plan they're going Full
Throttle uh it remains to be seen what
the BJP will now come up and uh you know
share with the voters as to whether it
is time for them to be in the Forefront
and and and how about uh you know the
previous elections single largest party
you know Congress how are they faring
David
well frankly it looks like uh this uh uh
doesn't look too good in the sense that
it it is hard to start afresh from 21
seats to zero seats in five years in the
assembly is uh hample uh uh you know
sign that the Congress has not been able
to hold its Fort its family together in
the State uh first we had immediately in
2018 Miss Dango is a former speaker who
quit okay to joined the NPP contested
the by-elections but lost to the UDP and
then you have two deaths okay of two
legislators the by-elections were won by
the MPP
and then of course in 2021 Dr mukul
Samba the former Chief Minister a very
senior Congressman uh left the the party
with uh 12 legislators that left the
congress with just five uh with 17 and
then the the other out of the five three
have joined the UDP to have joined
Regional parties so obviously the
congress party
which actually is a household name in
Magalia widely accepted uh this time
round has to start from scratch okay
eating the front would be just the uh
the party president who is the current
Lok Sabha MP Mr Vincent Pala and a
couple of former mlas but
um really it's like a new beginning for
them okay okay we'll uh we'll we'll come
back to that uh with both of you as well
but let me first bring in uh Lorraine uh
from kohima uh Lauren's nagaland is
concerned you know uh how's the
political Battleground set there this
time around because therein also is a
coalition government uh when again BJP
is a coalition partner
um yes uh here in nagaland as you many
people know like there are Regional
parties correlation with pgp party uh
since last government and since the
previous government also but in the
since starting last government there has
been a people alliance with the pgb the
ndpb led by the president chief minister
niferio so what we see here you know
like um uh till in the coming election
also it has been declared also but um
again they have this 2040 seat sharing
that has been uh from announced from
before and even now chief minister the
President Chief Minister is also saying
that the the
Alliance is still intact and their teach
sharing is also still in Tech but again
when we look into uh you know like how
the NADA container has commended Shri
him under this was it's also commanded
that it's yet to be decided so looking
at that you know scenario because uh
ndpp also on the first uh let me come to
this NDP also if we see now you know
like they have more mlas and okay
legislators they have the fortices also
along with that we have seen we have
seen the npf MLS who has joined the NDP
so now they are floating with you know
many sitting mlas where I think they
might be finding a little difficulty and
distributing the ticket also because
they have only 40 seats so which has
been already been announced so uh maybe
in the last moment they made something
might come up also or they might go with
the intact uh 40 20 year old so she's
sharing with bjb but again on the other
hand they are again for mlas who are
left in the npf party the opposition who
did not join the ndpp and PG populations
so uh here what we see in nagaland is
that yes of course
uh in the this government uh ndpp also
has been a little handicapped because
they could not make the final decision
in making any final decision without the
consent of the higher authority which
they say like pgb incent in the center
which has the higher higher command Okay
so every time for any decision making
also they have to depend for the high
command to make the decision so what we
have seen through these uh five years of
term with the
UDA government previously it was then
government but now when the most of the
mlas from npf the opposition government
joined joined the diagram and they have
changed into the United democritical
lines okay okay so NDP has been a little
you know like crippled in a sense if I
say so they could not make any decision
for the stage development in any kind of
development developmental works or any
kind of decision okay or any issues so
there has been you know a little of a
talk of words between also
so so the regional parties uh you know
versus the national parties there and
that brings me uh to you Sandeep you
know when we look at uh both National
parties let's first uh look at uh the
Congress because you know in uh
meghalayas as David was pointing out you
know it looks like uh congress's loss
was throughout the five years despite
being the single largest party and in
five years they came down from 21 to
zero when the next elections are
announced another example of congress's
mismanagement that's one and two when we
look at BJP which is in Alliance in you
know part of the ruling Coalition in
both the states meghalaya and nagaland
despite the fact that it doesn't have
much presence
yeah I mean well you can say in a way
poor political management uh though it
was not entirely there doing as Mr David
said pointed out that eventually many of
these legislators you know saw future uh
in Regional parties and Mr mukul sangma
who was a tall leader of the Congress he
actually went to trinamool so actually
trinamol is the principal three no more
Congress is the principal opposition
party in meghalaya but to begin with I
think the fact that they were not
invited despite being the single largest
party the governor did not invite them
because the BJP there the Assam chief
minister uh Mr himanta vishwa Sharma
played a very quick role in he is also
personal friends with
Conrad sangma so he played a very
important role in bringing together all
these uh yeah and then organizing this
Coalition but going ahead I think there
are issues between the BJP as Mr David
pointed out that
um what will the BJP do because in terms
of political branding their National
People's Party NPP has been sort of is
the big big brother there but they have
had several differences of opinion with
the BJP take the example of the citizen
Amendment act they were strongly opposed
to the ACT okay so there are other
issues also and then what what about
nagaland when we look at you know the
alliance Partners there as well not
everything has always been hunky-dory in
every Alliance but you know the problem
of Plenty for uh there uh I think
nagaland Alliance is very Rock Solid I
mean they are very stable and nephew Rio
is as reliable and Ally as you can get
in any political Coalition I think there
the challenge could be you know to take
along the Naga civil society when it
comes to the naga political issue okay
that has seen a stalemate of thoughts uh
you know it hasn't really moved beyond
the framework agreement though in recent
times I've read that NSE and I am and
nationalist Naga political organization
they have all sort of extended their
support to the center
but I think that's the big issue uh
and of course development is going to be
a big issue
Regional parties in the Northeast tend
to stay with the alliance that is ruling
the center because it's also easy for
them these are small states they need
they depend on the center's largest in
terms of funds so
I wouldn't see much of a problem but in
meghalaya I understand that there are
serious issues uh actually from the side
of the BJP okay uh
Mr David can perhaps throw a better
light on it but okay apparently the BJP
in meghalaya wants to sort of break out
of that Alliance and come on their own I
don't know how far these reports are
true we'll have to wait and watch uh
till the time you know uh the candidates
are announced the entire intricacies of
the alliance partnership is announced
there and which should happen uh you
know in the next few days but before we
bring this to an end uh Dr Chaudhary you
know from the national parties and
Regional parties perspective as Sandeep
was pointing out as David and Lauren was
also referring to you know this this
combination the the rise of regional
parties out there and their relationship
with the national parties beat the BJP
which is in ruling Alliance or the
Congress uh which is on the losing side
I would say that these three
Northeastern states I mean they reflect
the second quarter final to Lok Sabha
2024. the the first preceding one was
Gujarat and uh Himachal Pradesh when I
say second quarter final like these
three important uh States Northeastern
states uh both meghalaya and uh nagaland
they reflect the strength of Coalition
system so long as BCP as a strong
partner of both these two coalitions in
nagaland and meghalaya uh we have to see
how these two coalitions sustain in
these two states and how effective their
position either from the Congress or the
other racial players challenging their
hegemony or their their dominance there
in the states as David is also rightly
pointed out developmental issues are
important local issues are going to
determine the elections results in all
these three states so we have to see how
this battle goes far ahead moving away
from these uh local and developmental
issues to the National issues and how
BJP tries to collage together with these
two strong collisions in meghalaya and
nagaland and how strongly it comes out
in tirupura the days have to be seen
okay okay Sandeep do you agree with that
second quarter final uh before 2024
because there are there are many other
assembly elections yeah I think this is
a busy election yeah we have Karnataka
we have mizoram we have Rajasthan madhya
Pradesh chhattisgarh busy uh you know
it's a busy election uh here this year
but I think for the BJP it is very
important these states are very
important uh not just because see it
breaks The Stereotype that you know BJP
has emerged as the the alternative Pan
national party to the Congress right and
these were Congress strongholds so
ideologically also BJP for BJP it is
very important to have governance or be
partner in governments that are uh you
know not the traditional Hindi Belt
states and they're not Hindi States
increasing the footprint and it is very
important for them ideologically to uh
to you know have faith in their allies
or to maintain good relations with their
allies okay uh and also if possible
retain tripura and come back to Power
okay why it is important for them
because to you know for their presence
simply because of their presence okay
okay let's let's see what uh 63 lakh old
or you know voters in these three states
uh uh come to a decision which is who
wins these elections and uh who gets to
sit in the opposition again thank you so
much uh
David and laureny as well for joining us
and sharing your views and insight we'll
keep on coming back to you guys for more
inputs uh for the next two months of uh
political uh Battle Ground which has now
been set in these three states that is
meghalaya nagaland anthropura with the
election dates announced we'll come back
again uh with more details on this and
other topics as well till then keep
watching Sunset television thank you
[Music]
thank you
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