Stock Market at New Highs? Here's What I'm Buying Part 1 of 2
Summary
TLDRIn this financial analysis, Adam discusses the S&P 500 reaching a new high, emphasizing that all-time highs are historically bullish signals, not reasons to sell. He compares the current market with historical data, highlighting the importance of earnings support for stock prices. Adam advises against buying at the peak of a wave, suggesting patience for a pullback to add positions. He also addresses sector performance, noting that while some stocks soar, others lag, creating opportunities for value investors. The video concludes with a teaser for a follow-up on identifying undervalued stocks.
Takeaways
- đ The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high of 5,500 points, marking the 31st time in 2024, and is up over 15% year to date.
- đ€ Despite new highs, there's a common fear of market downturn, with experts often warning of a bubble and potential crash, but history suggests otherwise.
- đ Historical data shows that since 1950, the S&P 500 has set 1,250 all-time highs, averaging about 16 highs per year, which doesn't indicate a bearish market.
- đ The 1990s had the most all-time highs with 310, and it was a bullish decade with a 32% market gain, while the 2000s had the least with only 13, marking a bearish decade.
- đ The fear of selling at a peak is common, but all-time highs are more of a bullish signal, reflecting market and economic strength.
- đ Companies leading the market today, like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple, are fundamentally strong with significant earnings growth, unlike the dot-com bubble.
- đĄ Earnings per share are supporting the S&P 500's rise, indicating a healthy market not driven by speculation alone.
- đ Market corrections are normal and expected; investors should look for key support levels to add to positions during retracements.
- đž Sector performance is uneven, with technology and communication services leading gains, while some sectors like real estate and basic materials lag behind.
- đ§ Diversification can lead to underperformance in the short term if certain sectors are not in market favor, but it's key for long-term outperformance.
- đ Investors should distinguish between unloved stocks that are undervalued due to temporary issues and those with long-term structural problems.
Q & A
What milestone did the S&P 500 reach on Thursday?
-The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high of 5,500 points on Thursday.
How many times has the US market set an all-time high in 2024 according to the transcript?
-According to the transcript, the US market set an all-time high 31 times in 2024.
What is the average number of all-time highs the S&P 500 has made per year since 1950?
-Since 1950, the S&P 500 has made an average of 16 all-time highs per year.
Which decade had the most all-time highs in the S&P 500, and what was the market gain during that period?
-The 1990s had the most all-time highs with 310, and the market gained 32% during that decade.
What is the difference between the market condition during the dot-com bubble and the current market, according to the speaker?
-During the dot-com bubble, stock prices were driven by hype and speculation without strong earnings, whereas today's leading stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple have strong earnings supporting their share prices.
What is the speaker's view on all-time highs as a signal for market behavior?
-The speaker believes that all-time highs are a bullish signal, indicating market and economic strength, rather than a bearish signal to sell stocks.
What is the speaker's strategy for buying stocks or ETFs?
-The speaker prefers to buy on a pullback or retracement, not during a wave up pattern, and waits for significant support levels to average in or add to positions.
What are the three key support levels the speaker identifies for the S&P 500?
-The three key support levels identified are the 20 EMA at 5173, the previous swing low coinciding with the 40 EMA at 4954, and the 50 moving average on weekly candles coinciding with the previous swing high.
Why might an investor's portfolio not be performing as well as the S&P 500, despite the market being up?
-An investor's portfolio might not be performing as well if it is not heavily weighted in the sectors or companies that are driving the market gains, such as AI-related hardware companies.
What is the speaker's approach to investing in companies that have not participated in the AI Bull Run?
-The speaker advises to evaluate these companies individually; some may be great companies down temporarily for non-fundamental reasons, while others may have long-term structural problems and should be avoided.
What does the speaker suggest for investors who are not currently outperforming the S&P 500?
-The speaker suggests that short-term underperformance is not a sign of poor investing skills, as market rotation and sector performance can vary. Instead, focusing on long-term investment in quality businesses will likely result in outperforming the S&P 500 over time.
Outlines
đ S&P 500 Reaches New High Amidst Bubble Concerns
The S&P 500 has achieved a new record, hitting 5,500 points and marking the 31st all-time high of 2024, resulting in a 15% increase year-to-date. Despite common fears of a market downturn following such highs, historical data since 1950 shows an average of 16 all-time highs annually, with the 1990s seeing the most highs and the 2000s the least, correlating with market performance. Financial experts often warn of a bubble, but the speaker argues that all-time highs are signs of strength, not reasons to sell. The current market is contrasted with the dot-com bubble, where stock prices were driven by speculation rather than earnings, unlike today's leading companies like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple, which are financially robust.
đ€ Market All-Time Highs: Bullish Signal or Cause for Concern?
This paragraph delves into the historical significance of all-time highs in the stock market, suggesting they are bullish indicators rather than warnings of an impending crash. The speaker uses the example of the 1990s, which had 310 all-time highs and a market gain of 32%, to argue that such highs are positive. The current decade has seen 104 all-time highs, indicating a strong market. The speaker also addresses concerns about market crashes, comparing the current situation favorably to the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis, emphasizing that today's market leaders are backed by strong earnings.
đ Earnings Growth and Market Valuation Analysis
The speaker discusses the importance of earnings growth in supporting market valuations, using the S&P 500 as an example. As long as the market's price trend remains close to its earnings per share, there is no bubble. The speaker anticipates that earnings estimates will continue to rise due to the benefits of AI, which can increase productivity and profit margins. However, the speaker also advises against buying during a market upswing, preferring to invest during pullbacks or retracements for better entry points.
đ Market Corrections and Investment Timing
The speaker outlines a strategy for investing during market corrections, suggesting that investors should be patient and wait for a market pullback to buy in at better prices. The speaker identifies potential support levels for the S&P 500, including the 20 EMA, previous swing lows, and moving averages, as areas to consider adding to positions. The speaker also notes that while the market is up 15%, some investors may not be experiencing similar gains due to sector-specific performance.
đ Individual Stock Performance and Portfolio Diversification
The speaker addresses the disparity between the overall market performance and individual stock performance, noting that gains in the S&P 500 are concentrated in a few sectors, particularly technology and communication services. The speaker shares their own portfolio performance, which, despite being diversified, is slightly underperforming the S&P 500 due to the underperformance of certain sectors. The speaker emphasizes that short-term underperformance does not indicate poor investment skills, as market rotation and sector performance can vary significantly.
đ Investing in Overvalued and Undervalued Stocks
The speaker provides guidance on how to approach investing in overvalued and undervalued stocks. For overvalued stocks like Nvidia and Apple, which have led the market rally, the speaker suggests holding but not buying more until prices become more attractive. For undervalued stocks that have been left out of the rally, the speaker advises caution, as some may be down for valid reasons, while others present a good buying opportunity. The speaker promises to cover more on this topic in a follow-up video.
đ Avoiding Emotional Decisions in Stock Investments
The speaker concludes by warning against making investment decisions based on emotions such as fear of missing out or fear of losing profits. Instead, investors should think logically and act like business owners, considering the long-term growth potential of their investments. The speaker also promotes their own investment program, offering live buy and sell notifications, updated intrinsic values, and portfolio reviews.
Mindmap
Keywords
đĄS&P 500
đĄAll-time High
đĄYear-to-Date (YTD)
đĄBubble
đĄBearish
đĄBullish
đĄEarnings Per Share (EPS)
đĄDollar-Cost Averaging (DCA)
đĄSector Rotation
đĄIntrinsic Value
đĄOverbought
đĄSupport Level
Highlights
The S&P 500 reached a new all-time high of 5,500 points, marking the 31st time in 2024.
Despite market highs, there's a common fear of a market downturn leading to a temptation to sell and take profits.
Financial experts often warn of a bubble and market crash when the market reaches new highs, but history shows different outcomes.
Since 1950, the S&P 500 has set 1,250 all-time highs, averaging about 16 highs per year.
The 1990s had the most all-time highs with 310, coinciding with a 32% market gain.
The 2000s had the fewest all-time highs with only 13, marking a bearish decade.
All-time highs are generally a bullish signal, indicating market and economic strength, rather than a reason to sell.
The 2020s have seen 104 all-time highs so far, making it a strong bullish decade for stocks.
Companies leading the market, like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Apple, are making significant profits, unlike the dot-com bubble era.
Stock prices are supported by earnings, which is a healthy market indicator, unlike the dot-com bubble where prices were driven by speculation.
The S&P 500's rise is currently supported by earnings per share, indicating no bubble formation.
Analysts are raising earnings estimates for companies due to the benefits of AI deployment, suggesting continued market growth.
Investors should avoid buying during a wave up pattern and instead wait for a pullback or retracement for better entry points.
Support levels for the S&P 500 have been identified for potential investment opportunities during market corrections.
Some investors may not be benefiting from the market's rise if their portfolio is not heavily weighted in the leading AI-related hardware companies.
Investors should not be discouraged by short-term underperformance compared to the S&P 500, as long-term performance is more indicative of skill.
There are still undervalued sectors and companies that have not yet participated in the AI bull run, presenting potential opportunities for investors.
Transcripts
so the S&P 500 just hit a new Milestone
on Thursday hitting 5,500 points and
making a new all-time high before
pulling back slightly on Friday and the
interesting thing is that on Thursday
this was the 31st time the US market
made an all-time high in 2024 and it's
up currently over 15% year to date now
whenever the market makes new all-time
highs people get nervous because they
think it's going to come down and
there's this overwhelming temptation to
want to sell and take profits be before
the market comes down and increasingly
more and more financial economists and
analysts and experts start to come out
and they start to scream bubble bubble
bubble the Market's going to crash right
they always do that whenever the market
reaches an all-time high but does it
mean that all-time Highs are a reason to
get bearish in the market is it a reason
to sell your stocks in the market or our
all-time highs actually less bearish
than we think well again as always we
like to go back to history and learn
from history and what is interesting is
that since 1950 this is the S&P 500 from
1950 to the present day 2024 during this
period as you know the market always
goes up in the long run and over this
journey of the market going up to its
current level the S&P 500 has set
1,250 alltime highs since 1950 and
that's an average of 6 16 all-time highs
a year that means in any given year the
market makes 16 alltime highs and if you
break it down by decades these are the
decades this is the 1950s 1960s 1970s
1980s right and if you look at the
decades with the most all-time highs
they were actually the most bullish for
example if you look at 1990s from 1990
to 1999 the market made 310 all-time
highs and during this decade which was
from right here 1990 to
1999 the market gained
32% making 300 all-time highs the decade
with the least all-time highs was the 2s
which was the year 2000 which was
somewhere uh here to 2010 which was
somewhere around there right so during
this period the market only made 13
all-time highs and it was was a bearish
decade if you can see that so in other
words all-time highs is a bullish signal
it's a signal of Market strength
economic strength and it's not a bearish
signal it's not a reason to sell your
stocks and in fact this year again we've
had uh 31 all-time highs and since the
start of the 2020s decade we've had 104
alltime highs so so far this has been a
very strong bullish decade for stocks
now of course you've got people saying
that well in 2000 made all time high and
it collapsed why is this any different
well there are couple of reasons why
this is very different from 2020 uh the
Doom crash and 2008 October the great
financial crisis if you look at a dot
bubble if you're old enough to remember
it and like me I was in the Market at
the time it was a very different Market
because at the time stock prices were
going up like crazy on companies that
were not making money the companies were
not making money but today the stocks
that are leading the market like Nvidia
Microsoft and Apple they are making a
lot of money and this chart shows you
the big difference so again in a dotom
bubble you can see
that this uh blue line over here is the
NASDAQ the the the the share price of
the NASDAQ versus the S&P 500 so the
market the the NASDAQ was going up but
the earnings of the company they were
not really making much money so we call
this a bubble stock price is going up is
driven by hype and speculation and
stories okay but it's not backed by
actual earnings of the company and sure
enough uh companies have to make money
if not eventually the Hy will collapse
that's what happened to R ETF you look
at R ETF a lot of the stocks that they
own the companies don't make money or
they make very little money and you know
the price was supported by hype back in
2021 before it collapsed right but in
today's market you can see that that
although the stock stocks have gone up
of the NASDAQ companies the one in light
blue but the earnings of the companies
have actually been supporting the share
price and I've said this before that if
you look at Nvidia for example Nvidia in
the last year also the share price went
up over 200% but the earnings grew at
600% and that's why Nvidia is actually
cheaper today than it was a year ago you
know I said that before that you know
when a stock price goes up it doesn't
mean the stock gets more expensive the
stock can actually get cheaper if the
price goes up if the earnings are going
up stronger than the price it's the same
thing with the S&P 500 so again you can
see that currently the Blue Line S&P 500
is going up and up and up and just hit
5,500 points but it is actually
supported by the earnings per share and
the black line is the forward 12 months
earnings per share so as long as the
blue line is close to the black line
there's no bubble but if the Blue Line
gets far above the black line then it's
over stretched price is way above the
earnings that's when a bubble forms and
the blue line will eventually crash back
down to the black line so as of now um
that's not the case now the question is
moving forward do we expect the earnings
of companies to continue growing or to
contract well as of now you can see that
earnings
uh per share of the S&P 500 this is
based on the calendar year 2023 which is
already over 24 this is the current year
and this is next year 2025 and then 2026
so moving forward to the next uh three
years you can see that analysts have
actually been raising the earnings
estimates of companies as they
benefit from deploying AI because if AI
it increases their productivity reduces
their cost increases their profit
margins so as long as earnings estimates
are rising the stock market can continue
to go up now although I say the S&P
remains bullish and will continue to go
up over the medium to longer term does
it mean that I'm going to jump in right
now to buy more S&P 500 ETF no okay I'm
not and I don't suggest that you know
anyone does it why because again the
market does not go up in a straight line
the market moves in wave patterns I've
said this many many times before and
what I never like to do is I never like
to buy during a wave up pattern I like
to always buy on a pullback on a
retracement on a wave down pattern that
will happen once in a while so you've
got to be patient to add on Wave Downs
then you get in at uh better prices so
again as you guys know you can just look
at the wave patterns right you've got
you know wave up wave down wave up wave
down wave up wave down wave
up wave down and right now we are on a
wave up pattern okay now again I like to
buy on a wave down so when will we start
waving down no one knows everyone tries
to guess no one can predict the absolute
future but it will wave down eventually
maybe in July maybe in August maybe in
September so usually as you guys know
August September tend to be the
seasonally weaker months is it a
guaranteed of course not but it's just a
guess right so don't be surprised that
maybe in in in July August September we
get a bit of a wave down all right if he
waves down to this red line over there
the 20 EMA on weekly candles that could
be a level to add if you're looking to
average in dollar cost average in to the
uh S&P 500 let me kind of like draw a
line there somewhere around there you
know 5173 could be a level to add shares
right and you never know sometimes you
could get an even bigger retracement
that be another uh potential level of
Support over there which was the
previous swing low let me just get rid
of this that uh so you can see clear
right previous swing low there right and
then if we get a much bigger correction
which usually remember that in a
year the market tends to drop
5% at least
two to three times a year right on
average and the market tends to drop 10%
at least once a year when it happens no
one knows all right but it will happen
so when as an investor I always like to
identify a key support levels and these
will be the key support levels first at
a 20 EMA at
5173 second support level at the
previous swing low that coincides with
the 40 EMA at
4954 and finally at the 50 moving
average on weekly candle that coincides
with the previous swing high so these
are three very very strong support
levels and again like I said as and when
the market corrects down this would be
levels where I would add I would add
into the S&P 500 if I was you know
dollar cost averaging and these are
intelligent levels to add because you
never know where the bottom is in a
correction right it could hit this level
and then go back up or this level go
back up so we can never pick the bottom
and that's why it makes sense to always
average in our position now I hear some
people saying to me that Adam the S&P
500 is at an all-time high it's up 15%
but the stops I own are are barely up in
fact some of them are even down and my
portfolio is not doing too well this
year now you are not alone the reason is
this that so far the gains in the S&P
500 are skewed to just a few companies
bringing up the entire index so if we
take a look at the the 10 sectors that
make up the index right you've got
technology communication Services
financials Healthcare and so and so
forth and of of all these sectors are
they all going up equally as much no you
can see that most of the gains are
driven by you guested technology and not
all the technology companies only some
of them which are the AI related
Hardware companies those are the ones
that are driving all the gains in the
market and there are some technology
stocks for example like IT consulting
Essentia or software companies like
sales force that are barely up this year
in fact some of them are down this year
and the other one that's up a lot would
be communication Services driven by
Google and meta the two biggest
contributors of communication Services
financials are up as well but only up 8%
Healthcare also up up 7% consumer
defense is up 6.9% it Industrials up
6.4% utilities up
5.85% energy up 4% but consumer
discretionary also known as consumer
cyclicals of which I've got quite a bit
myself is only up 3% this year and basic
materials down 1% and real estate down
5% so unless your portfolio of stocks
are heavily
weighted into Nvidia or asml or apple
those few Hardware AI related companies
chances are your portfolio is not that
exciting this year it is probably
underperforming the S&P 500 and you know
something it's fine no matter how great
you are as an
investor you can't always beat the S&P
in the short term and I can tell you
that even myself the first 6 months of
the year I'm not beating the S&P 500 I'm
not right I I always beat the S&P over
the medium the long run but short term
there are times when I underperform the
S&P why because although I have
Microsoft I've got Apple I've got asml
I've got Nvidia I I do have all these
companies but I also diversify into
other companies I've got Pepsi I've got
McDonald's I've got Hershey so because
I'm so
Diversified uh my other sectors or the
stocks that I own in other sectors like
consumer discretionary or defensives
they're not up as much and so my
portfolio is uh not beating the S&P year
to date so well let me just show you
this is my uh returns year today where
is
that ah there we are okay so year today
the S&P is up 15% my portfolio is only
up 12% so I'm slightly trailing the S&P
500 and again reason is because if you
take a look at my portfolio allocation
by the way this is my actual portfolio
I'm not going to reveal all my stocks to
you unless you become uh unless you're
in my private Community then you can see
every single position every single
allocation right but you can see that
technology makes up 31% of my portfolio
so this is the one that's driving my
portfolio all right again not all stocks
I I own Salesforce that's down uh but
it's my Nvidia that's up it's my
Microsoft that's up right and I've got V
which is technology that's down as well
so I've got quite a number of tech
companies that are down this year as
well all right I've got 24% into
consumer discretionary so I've got a
heavy weightage into this and this has
not been outperforming so far this year
as I showed you earlier on consumer
discretionary also known as consumer
cyclicals that is only up 3% year to dat
and that's why that is in a way pulling
down my portfolio
returns okay uh let's go back to that
and I've got uh my next biggest chunk
would be healthare that's up as well but
not as much I've got financials 11%
again up as well not that much I've got
10% communication so that is helping me
a lot I own meta I own Google so that's
pulling up my portfolio as well I also
own 6% of consumer staples like
McDonald's like Pepsi like Hershey's and
and and that's not been up so much this
year
okay so as an investor if you are not
outperforming the index does it mean
that oh you suck you're lousy investor
no I can tell you that in the short term
whether you outperform the index or not
in the short term in a few months or
even a year it's not skilled it's luck
it's completely luck right because it
depends on which sectors are in rotation
for example if you happen to have most
of your stocks in technology and AI
Hardware of course you beat the market
you do really well right because that
sector is what we call in
rotation so different sectors in the
market they take turns going in and out
of rotation right so when you are when
you have a diversified portfolio in
different sectors certain sectors will
outperform certain years and certain
sectors will underperform certain years
for example in
2022 it was the complete opposite right
in 2022 if you H any technology stocks
whoo that dropped significantly in 2022
but which sector was in rotation in
2022 energy if you recall in 2022 energy
did very well energy was uh double
digits right whereas technology
was uh minus you know 20% now of course
we would love to predict exactly which
sector will outperform this year which
sector will underperform
but there's no way you can predict
there's no way to know until it happens
all right but like I said if in the in
the longer term in over 1 three 5 years
it's not about luck if you hold great
companies regardless of the sectors you
will beat the S&P 500 right so for
example just in a onee time frame uh the
S&P is up let me just show
you um let's see let's bring up trading
view okay this's as
so like I said for year to date it's up
15% right so my portfolio is trailing
slightly at
12.25% but on the 12 month time frame
the SNP is up 24% for the last 12 months
but my portfolio in the last 12 months
is
up 26% right so I am
outperforming uh the S&P in a one-year
time frame and in a threeyear five 10
year I am way outperforming the S&P 500
right so like I said no matter how good
you are you can't beat the market all
the time in the short term but medium to
long term you will always beat the
market if you invest in the high quality
businesses regardless of which sectors
they in because again different sectors
will take turns going in and out of
favor of Mr Market but in the long run
great companies regardless of sectors
will do really really well now the fact
that not all sectors not all stocks have
joined this AI Bull Run so far this year
is that good news or bad news well I'm
the comp person who always says it's
good news there's always a blessing in
disguise there's always a silver lining
and the Silver Lining is that even
though the market is near all-time highs
there are still certain sectors and
certain companies that are undervalued
that are cheap and as a as an
intelligent investor instead of chasing
those stocks that are running that are
you know now overprice why not look at
the ones that are still relatively
attractive so that's my next focus in
this video and I can't cover everything
in this in this video so I'll do a part
two where I'll go into more specific
companies for you guys to consider again
not a recommendation for you guys to buy
but just to think about what kind of
companies I look for and you could also
look for your your own type of companies
that suit your investment
criteria all right so again uh the
million dollar question is what do you
do right now with markets near all-time
highs now for those of you who are just
investing in the ETF like I mentioned
earlier would I buy the SNP ETF or the
triple Q ETF right here and right now no
I won't all right so one of my
disciplines again is I never buy after a
wave up even though the wave up could
still wave up even more you can never
tell when is the exact point when the
wave up will end and you wave down
there's no way to predict for certain
there's no way to predict right so what
what I would do if I was again just
buying the ETF would be I'll just wait
for the wave down whether it comes in
July comes in August comes in September
when it comes then I'll start to um
dollar cost average and add to my ETF
positions when it hits these significant
support levels and that is if I'm buying
the ETF so how about individual
companies so I divide them into two
groups number one would be those
individual companies that are leading
the rally this year they up double
digits and they are overvalued that's
one group right then another group are
very good companies but they have been
left out of the rally for whatever
reason and they are currently
undervalued so let's talk about the the
the first category which are great
companies but they overvalued because
they are leading the AI RAR a good
example is NVIDIA so Nvidia currently is
my fourth largest position in my
portfolio and for
NVIDIA I hear half the people in my
communities uh getting nervous and say
it's got up so much it's got to come
down it's got to come down it's
overpriced and they want to get out they
say you know they want to sell right
then I've got another group who are
saying it keeps going and and I'm not in
the store and you know should I buy so
got half the people wanting to get into
Nvidia they up wanting to get out so
what to do right so again never allow
emotions to drive your decisions whether
is it for more the fear of missing out
or the fear of losing profits so always
think logically like the owner of a
business so what am I doing for my
Nvidia position the answer is I'm not
selling why am I not selling because
long run I expect it to continue to grow
and compound but neither am I buying
more right now why because although I
expect it to uh double in the next 5 to
6 years because it's a long Runway we at
the start of the AI Revolution but
shortterm Nvidia is slightly overvalued
and it is slightly overextended and so I
I won't buy until it gets a bit more
attractively priced so again
overextended basically means overbought
as you know prices move in wave patterns
which I keep saying right you've got to
wave up wave down wave up wave down wave
up wave down wave up wave down wave up
so right now it's on this wave up
pattern and it's getting a bit
overextended and eventually it's going
to wave down no one knows exactly when
it could be waving down right now it
could be waving down in in July August
September we don't know right so the
whole thing is I never like to buy I
never like to so chase the girl you know
I always like to wait for the girl to
run into my arms when there's fear in in
in the market right so for me I'm
waiting for NVIDIA to retrace at least
nearer to this red line This 20 EMA on
weekly candles before I want to add more
to my position yeah that's based on the
on the technical perspective now on the
fundamental perspective is all about
valuation so my recent valuation and
again bear in mind that valuations
change all the time every every time the
company releases its new earnings
results New I've got new free cash flow
and growth projections I have to revalue
the stock and Nvidia is a one of the
unique companies that every time they
announce their new earnings results I
have to revalue it very very fast but
based on their last report my intrinsic
value for NVIDIA which I mentioned
earlier on is between $1 and $22 my base
case valuation to my more pessimistic
valuation of $94 so this is my what my
my valuation range so my discipline as a
value investor is to never buy when it's
overpriced no matter how great it is
right I want to wait for the price to
drop below the intrinsic value which is
122 so it must get below 122 before I
would add more to my position and
ideally not only drop below the
intrinsic value but drop to a
significant
support level of which I've identified
the closest support where I may add
start adding more to my early fourth
largest position is
101 okay and then uh if it even retraces
even more to uh what's the next level uh
87 then of course you know I'll add even
more to my position so this is an
example of a stock that has let this
rally another example of a stock that
read LED this rally is of of course
apple apple is in my portfolio but it's
it's not uh a very big position I wish
it was but it's not uh because I didn't
get a chance to buy enough before it
started flying up really really fast so
in the case of Apple you can see that my
intrinsic value is 166 okay so and right
now it's 207 so you know it it's
overpriced you know so again Apple I own
Apple am I selling it no because Al
although shortterm it is overpriced
slightly it is OV extend ended slightly
but long run Apple I believe would
continue to compound and grow my wealth
because it's got such a dominant uh
position uh but would I buy more Apple
now no I won't right so again I'll only
buy Apple if it gets below my 166
intrinsic value for example right and
again if you take uh the whale investor
call you will learn how to calculate the
intrinsic value for all these kind of
companies and and if you're if you want
me to do it for you yeah subscribe to
the ultimate investors Playbook where my
subscribers they get uh my live uh uh
buy and sell notifications every day
they get my updated intrinsic values my
updated support levels you know every
single month my updated portfolio
reviews now how about the stocks that
have not participated they have been
left out of this AI buun here today for
example in the Dow Jones index that's up
this year but you know what they've got
some components like Cisco down 6% Intel
down 36% you've got Boeing down 31%
Salesforce down 5.9% United Health down
8.4% McDonald's down 12% Nike down
99.69% if you look at the NASDAQ uh over
here right this is a NASDAQ 100 index is
up tremendously this year but look at
Adobe is down 9% Tesla is down 26% over
here Lululemon down 38% year today so
should you buy these unloved stocks that
have been forgotten by Mr Market or
should you stay away from them because
something's wrong with them well it
depends some of these stocks I think are
great companies and are just down
temporarily for all kinds of stupid
reasons and it's a great opportunity to
add these stocks but on the other hand
there are some stocks that are down a
lot this year that I wouldn't touch with
a 10- foot pole because I think there
are some long-term structural problems
with these companies so how do you tell
the difference well I'll cover a lot
more in part two of this video if you're
interested to watch part two be sure to
um you know subscribe and click on the
notification button so they get notified
once the next part of this video is up
thanks for watching guys see you in the
next video May the markets be with you
if you want to catch my latest videos
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online this is Adam coup and may the
markets be with you
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