Bitcoin: Is The Bull Run Over?

Summary

The video breaks down a long-term bullish case for Bitcoin while walking viewers through the current intraday setup. The host explains why weekly fair/fill gaps are likely support zones, stresses trading market structure (bullish until the swing low is broken), and cautions against blind limit orders. He contrasts personal opinion with a proven system—highlighting past successful bottom calls and an 80% win-rate claim—and outlines intraday kill zones and key news times (10:30 a.m. and 2:00 p.m.) that could shift momentum. Viewers are invited to join the VIP for direct access and a live masterclass explaining the exact system.

Takeaways

• 😀 The market structure is still bullish until the swing low at $7,000 is broken.
• 📈 The speaker emphasizes that successful trading is about following a proven system, not personal opinions about the market.
• 🔍 Yesterday’s intraday setup was a no-trade because although the direction was correct, the timing and setup didn't align with the trading strategy.
• 📊 The current Bitcoin price level is at a key support zone, identified by a weekly FY gap, which has historically acted as a bottom for previous bull runs.
• 💡 The speaker notes that placing trades based solely on where you think the market should bottom often results in losses; it's about probability, not certainty.
• 💬 The speaker reflects on how past predictions about Bitcoin's movements proved to be correct, highlighting the importance of following a systematic approach over market sentiment.
• ⏳ Timing is crucial: trades should not be placed based on assumptions, but rather after confirming the market's movement, particularly after the New York kill zone or key news events.
• ⚖️ The speaker stresses the importance of reacting to real-time market conditions, particularly with shifting biases that can change throughout the trading day.
• 📅 The best trading periods are typically between 7:00 a.m. and 10:00 a.m. EST, but important news at 10:30 a.m. and 2:00 p.m. may impact the timing of trades for the day.
• 🔑 Even though the market feels bearish right now, the speaker prefers to wait for a bullish confirmation before making any trades, like a bullish weekly close.

Q & A

What is the primary focus of this video?

The video focuses on providing both a long-term and intraday outlook for Bitcoin, including a review of past trades and analysis of the current market structure.

What was the outcome of the intraday setup from the previous day?

The intraday setup for the previous day ended up being a no trade, despite the overall direction being correct. There was no trade because the setup either didn't trigger or occurred outside of the recommended trading window.

What key factor determines whether a trade is executed or not, according to the speaker?

The key factor is the timing and confirmation from the market. The speaker emphasizes waiting for a confirmation, such as a bullish weekly close, before entering a trade.

Why does the speaker stress the importance of market structure?

Market structure is crucial because it helps define the overall trend. The speaker emphasizes that as long as the market remains in bullish structure (i.e., higher lows and higher highs), resistance levels, like bearish order blocks, can be disregarded.

How does the speaker describe the behavior of Bitcoin during the current bull market?

Bitcoin has been following a pattern where key bottoms have been forming at weekly fair value (FY) gaps. The speaker believes this increases the likelihood of finding a bottom at current levels, although it is still too early to execute a trade.

What is the speaker's stance on setting limit orders at potential market bottoms?

The speaker advises against placing limit orders based solely on the belief that a particular level will be the bottom. Instead, they suggest using a systematic approach that involves waiting for confirmation from the market before entering trades.

What is the role of the VIP group in the speaker's trading system?

The VIP group allows members to directly interact with the speaker, ask questions, and get personalized trading advice. It offers more value than a traditional signals group by providing more in-depth support and guidance.

Why does the speaker caution against relying solely on opinions about market tops and bottoms?

The speaker points out that the market often defies predictions about tops and bottoms. Past instances, like when Bitcoin reached $69,000 and $100,000, showed that calling the top too early missed out on significant price movements.

What is the significance of the time period between 7:00 a.m. and 10:00 a.m. for trading?

The time period between 7:00 a.m. and 10:00 a.m. corresponds to the New York kill zone, a key window for trading. The speaker notes that high-impact news events can affect price movements, potentially changing the best time for entering trades.

What is the speaker's approach to managing uncertainty in the market?

The speaker emphasizes the importance of adaptability and reacting to changing market conditions in real time. They stress that trading decisions should be based on the system’s guidance, rather than personal feelings about the market's direction.