The REAL Reason Russia Hasn't Lost the War Yet

Summary

In this video, the analyst discusses Russia's fragile economic situation, emphasizing the nation's struggles due to its ongoing war in Ukraine. Despite predictions of imminent collapse, Russia has managed to sustain its war efforts using a large financial reserve built before the conflict. However, with this war chest running out, inflation rising, and economic sanctions taking their toll, Russia’s ability to continue the war is increasingly at risk. The video urges viewers to reconsider the belief that Russia's economy will not collapse, highlighting that, while it hasn't happened yet, its collapse is becoming more likely each day.

Takeaways

• 😀 Russia's economy is facing significant strain due to the war in Ukraine, with multiple reasons contributing to its fragility.
• 😀 Despite prolonged predictions about Russia's collapse, the country has yet to fall, making it increasingly likely that a collapse is inevitable in the future.
• 😀 The Russian government had initially prepared for the war with significant financial resources, particularly from a 'war chest' built after the annexation of Crimea in 2014.
• 😀 Russia's plan to use this war chest for economic recovery and prosperity for its people after a quick victory in Ukraine never materialized, as the war dragged on far longer than anticipated.
• 😀 Instead of a prosperous outcome, the war chest has been used to fund the ongoing war effort, now putting significant pressure on Russia's economy.
• 😀 The depletion of Russia's war chest is a key factor contributing to inflation, with high inflation rates signaling that the country is running out of money.
• 😀 Putin has had to promise reductions in the military budget to address inflation, indicating severe economic strain and pressure from the Russian public.
• 😀 Russia's approach of offering cash incentives to recruit soldiers, rather than conscription, is a sign of Putin's fear of public dissent and a weakening regime.
• 😀 Russia's GDP claims during the war are questionable, with much of the supposed 'growth' attributed to war spending, rather than productive economic investment.
• 😀 The Russian government is rapidly depleting its savings and economic resources, and it is becoming increasingly clear that its economy will eventually collapse under the weight of its ongoing war efforts.

Q & A

What is the primary reason the speaker believes Russia's economy could collapse?

The speaker believes Russia's economy could collapse due to a combination of factors, including severe sanctions, high inflation, a large war chest that is running out, and the ongoing costs of the war in Ukraine. The war has placed immense financial strain on Russia, depleting resources that were initially set aside to withstand sanctions.

Why do some people think Russia's collapse won't happen despite ongoing analysis?

Some people believe Russia's collapse won't happen because they think that since it hasn't happened yet despite years of warnings, it will never happen. However, the speaker argues that the situation is actually becoming more likely over time as the financial and economic pressures continue to build.

What was Russia's strategy when they invaded Ukraine in 2022?

Russia's strategy when they invaded Ukraine in 2022 was based on the belief that they would be able to quickly conquer Ukraine and win the war within a matter of weeks. They had accumulated a significant financial reserve, known as Putin's war chest, to withstand sanctions and to potentially deploy in the Russian economy after a victorious outcome.

How did Russia plan to use their war chest during the early stages of the war?

Russia planned to use their war chest to endure the sanctions they expected to face and, after a successful invasion of Ukraine, to stimulate the Russian economy by distributing funds to the population, making them feel more prosperous. This was intended to generate support for further military actions.

Why hasn't Russia deployed the war chest as planned?

Russia has not been able to deploy the war chest as planned because the war has not ended quickly as they anticipated. Instead of using the funds to boost the economy, they have had to use it to fund the ongoing war effort, which has led to economic instability and inflation.

What does the high inflation in Russia indicate about the country's financial situation?

High inflation in Russia is a sign that the government is running out of money and is resorting to printing more currency to finance the war. This is a classic indicator of an economy that is struggling to balance spending and income, which in turn creates further instability.

Why did Putin recently announce a reduction in Russia's military budget?

Putin's announcement to reduce the military budget is a response to the growing economic pressures within Russia, particularly high inflation. This suggests that the government can no longer sustain the war effort at its previous levels and is feeling pressure from the Russian people.

What impact does conscription have on Russian society, and why is it avoided by Putin?

Conscription, or the forced enlistment of people to fight, is seen as a measure that would provoke significant unrest within Russian society. Putin avoids it because he fears that large-scale conscription could lead to widespread opposition to the war and jeopardize his regime.

How does the speaker compare Russia's financial strategy to personal finance?

The speaker compares Russia’s financial strategy to a personal financial situation where someone spends all their savings in a short period to create the appearance of wealth, but once those savings run out, there is no sustainable future. Similarly, Russia has used its savings to fund the war but cannot sustain it long-term without new income or investments.

What does the speaker mean by Russia's GDP growth being nonsensical during the war?

The speaker argues that Russia's reported GDP growth during the war is nonsensical because it is based on the use of funds from their war chest, not from actual economic productivity. While they may report GDP growth, the money is being spent on military efforts rather than on sustainable economic growth.