Dampak Pemilu dan Pilpres 2024 terhadap Harapan Ekonomi

Summary

The 2024 Indonesian elections are not just a political event; they significantly impact the economy. This script explores how election-related expenditures, such as government budgets for logistics and campaign spending, stimulate sectors like food, transportation, textiles, and small businesses. With a predicted GDP contribution of up to 1.3%, elections can create a temporary economic boost. However, the challenge lies in sustaining growth post-election. Historical data reveals cyclical economic patterns during election years, with investment and consumption affected. The new government must address economic recovery, inflation, and stability post-election to ensure long-term prosperity.

Takeaways

• 😀 The 2024 Indonesian general election (Pemilu) is expected to significantly impact the economy, especially in terms of increased consumption and government spending.
• 😀 Election-related activities like campaigns and logistics procurement stimulate sectors such as food, beverage, textiles, transportation, and accommodation.
• 😀 The total budget allocated for the 2024 election is estimated at IDR 71.3 trillion, with a 57.3% increase compared to the 2019 budget.
• 😀 Large election budgets are driven by the simultaneous presidential and regional elections, an increase in political parties, and regulatory changes.
• 😀 The election period stimulates small and medium-sized enterprises through activities like printing, advertising, and merchandise production for campaigns.
• 😀 Estimated direct contributions of the election to GDP range from 0.6% to 1.3%, translating to IDR 118.9 trillion to IDR 270.3 trillion in economic activity.
• 😀 A significant impact of elections on consumption, particularly in sectors like food, logistics, and clothing, is expected, with increased spending by both candidates and the general public.
• 😀 While election years bring temporary economic acceleration, it is essential to follow up with sound policies from elected leaders to sustain long-term economic growth.
• 😀 The trend in previous elections shows a temporary economic slowdown in the quarters leading up to elections, followed by stabilization and growth post-election.
• 😀 Political campaigns, spending, and increased government expenditures lead to a short-term boost in economic activity, but the real challenge lies in maintaining stability and long-term growth.

Q & A

What are the main economic impacts of the 2024 Indonesian general election?

The 2024 Indonesian general election is expected to positively impact the economy, primarily through increased government spending on the election itself, campaign activities, and public services. This spending is expected to stimulate economic sectors like food, beverage, logistics, textiles, transportation, and small to medium-sized businesses.

How does the election budget affect the national economy?

The election budget, which in 2024 is estimated at IDR 71.3 trillion, stimulates the economy by increasing government consumption and encouraging spending in related sectors like logistics, food, and services. This spending is expected to contribute 0.6% to 1.3% to Indonesia's GDP.

Why has the election budget in 2024 increased compared to previous elections?

The election budget in 2024 has increased due to the simultaneous presidential and regional elections, requiring higher logistics costs, more personnel, and more complex coordination. Additionally, the number of political parties and voters has increased, contributing to higher costs.

What sectors are most likely to benefit from the economic activities surrounding the election?

Sectors such as food and beverage, textiles, transportation, logistics, and retail services are expected to see increased demand due to the election-related activities. Small businesses involved in printing, advertising, and campaign materials will also benefit.

What are the projected effects of the 2024 election on GDP growth and inflation?

The 2024 election is expected to stimulate GDP growth, contributing around 0.6% to 1.3% to the national economy. However, it may also result in slight inflation due to increased demand in certain sectors, although the effect is predicted to be moderate.

How does the election cycle influence foreign direct investment (FDI) in Indonesia?

Historically, FDI tends to decrease leading up to the election due to the uncertainty about the political outcome. However, after the election, FDI levels tend to stabilize and even increase as investors regain confidence in the stability and policy direction of the new government.

What role do political campaigns play in the economy during elections?

Political campaigns, especially those involving heavy spending on advertisements, rallies, and other promotional activities, can significantly boost consumption in the economy. The campaign spending increases demand in sectors like printing, media, logistics, and even food services.

How do elections affect the value of the Indonesian rupiah?

The value of the Indonesian rupiah tends to weaken in the months leading up to the election, as investors become cautious about potential political instability. However, the currency often strengthens once the election results are clear and the new government begins to implement policies.

What are the long-term economic challenges after the election period?

While the election stimulates short-term economic growth, the long-term challenge is ensuring that this momentum continues. The newly elected officials must implement effective policies to sustain growth, reduce unemployment, and address inflation. Managing the national debt, especially after the pandemic, will also be crucial.

How does the public perceive the economic priorities of presidential candidates?

Voters tend to prioritize economic stability and growth, with concerns about inflation, unemployment, and income inequality being prominent. Candidates that focus on addressing these issues, along with global concerns like climate change, are likely to gain more attention from the electorate.