How to Research Home Runs using Propfinder!

Summary

In this video, Jake from the PropFinder team explains how they research home run predictions using PropFinder. He highlights the importance of analyzing a pitcher's HR per nine stat, weather conditions, and hitter performance, specifically focusing on stats like exit velocity and barrel percentage. Jake uses O'Neal Cruz's stats against pitcher Brady Singer as an example, detailing how pitch type and arm filters help refine predictions. The video also discusses how to use the platform's filters to find the best hitters for home run bets, while factoring in game conditions like domed stadiums. Viewers are encouraged to join the community and follow PropFinder for more MLB research tips.

Takeaways

• 😀 Look for pitchers with a high HR per nine stat to identify those who give up more home runs.
• 😀 A HR per nine stat of 1.2 or higher is a good benchmark for targeting pitchers who give up home runs.
• 😀 Weather conditions play a crucial role—avoid games with high precipitation chances or strong wind blowing in.
• 😀 Check hitter stats against the opposing pitcher, specifically focusing on stats like exit velocity and barrel percentage.
• 😀 Left-handed batters, like O'Neal Cruz, are more likely to hit home runs against pitchers who struggle against lefties.
• 😀 Analyzing a hitter's performance against a pitcher’s specific pitch mix is valuable for predicting potential home runs.
• 😀 Filter pitch types and arm angles in the PropFinder tool to analyze how a batter performs against specific pitches.
• 😀 Focus on pitches thrown at least 15% of the time by the pitcher, and for major pitch types, consider filtering by just that pitch.
• 😀 A high ISO (above 200) indicates good power for hitters and increases the chances of a home run.
• 😀 Players with low stats or minimal recent performance (like Horwitz or Frasier) may not be reliable home run candidates.
• 😀 Games played in domes or stadiums with retractable roofs negate weather conditions, so they are ideal for home run predictions.

Q & A

What is the HR per nine stat, and why is it important when researching home runs?

The HR per nine stat shows how many home runs a pitcher allows in nine innings. It is important because the higher the number, the more home runs the pitcher gives up, which helps in identifying pitchers who may be more vulnerable to home runs.

What is the minimum HR per nine stat value that the PropFinder team prefers?

The PropFinder team prefers pitchers with an HR per nine stat of at least 1.2, though the higher the stat, the better.

How does weather influence home run research, and what conditions should be avoided?

Weather can greatly impact a game's outcome. The PropFinder team avoids games with high precipitation chances (above 50%) or poor wind conditions (winds over 10 mph blowing in), as these factors can hinder the likelihood of home runs.

Why is the hitter's stat against right-handed pitchers significant for research?

Hitter stats against right-handed pitchers are crucial because they help predict how well a hitter will perform against a specific pitcher, especially when the pitcher is right-handed, as shown in the script with Brady Singer.

What is the relevance of exit velocity and barrel percentage in evaluating hitters?

Exit velocity and barrel percentage are key indicators of a hitter's power. Higher exit velocity (like Cruz's 96.2 mph) and a higher barrel percentage (22%) suggest that the hitter is more likely to hit home runs.

Why is it beneficial for a left-handed hitter to face a pitcher like Brady Singer?

Brady Singer tends to give up more home runs to left-handed batters, so it's beneficial for left-handed hitters, like O'Neal Cruz, as they may have a better chance of hitting home runs.

What does the metric 'Averages' show, and how can it help research home runs?

The 'Averages' metric shows data on every ball hit into play by the batter based on the selected pitch type and pitch arm, helping to analyze how well the batter performs against a pitcher's specific pitch mix.

How should one use the filter settings for pitch types when researching home runs?

It's recommended to filter pitches that the pitcher throws at least 15% of the time, such as sinkers, sliders, and cutters for Brady Singer. If a pitcher uses a specific pitch more than 60% of the time, it's a good idea to focus on that pitch first.

What is ISO, and why is it important when evaluating a hitter's home run potential?

ISO (Isolated Power) measures a hitter's raw power. A value above 200 is considered excellent and indicates that a player has a higher potential to hit home runs.

Why is it useful to compare multiple hitters' performance when researching home runs?

Comparing multiple hitters' performance helps to identify the best options for betting or predicting home runs by highlighting players with high performance stats against specific pitchers or conditions.

What does the roof icon indicate, and why is it relevant for weather-related research?

The roof icon indicates games played in domes or stadiums with retractable roofs. This is important because, regardless of bad weather, the roof will be closed, and weather won't affect the game's conditions for home run potential.