This Is The BIGGEST Trap I've Seen In My 6 Years In Crypto..
Summary
TLDRThis video script reveals the truth about the altcoin market, debunking the misconception of a current bull run. Empirical data suggests altcoins have underperformed despite Bitcoin's rally, with a significant price action discrepancy. The presenter discusses potential reasons for this underperformance, including Bitcoin's dominance due to the spot ETF approval and a lack of retail interest in altcoins beyond select sectors like memes. The script also explores the impact of token dilution and suggests altcoins may not peak until late 2024 or 2025, encouraging viewers to stay informed and take advantage of market opportunities.
Takeaways
- đ The speaker believes we are not currently in an altcoin bull run, despite what many people think, based on empirical evidence.
- đ There is a significant price action discrepancy between altcoins and Bitcoin, indicating that Bitcoin has been leading the market rally, not altcoins.
- đ The 'Others BTC' chart shows that altcoins are underperforming and are currently trading at levels lower than in October 2023, contrary to the perception of a bull run.
- đ Only eight coins have broken their previous all-time high against Bitcoin since the fall of FTX, suggesting a lack of a broad altcoin market recovery.
- đč Crypto YouTube views have significantly dropped, indicating lower retail interest and sentiment, despite Bitcoin's high price near 70k.
- đ The altcoin index (Total 3) is significantly lagging behind Bitcoin's price recovery, being 78% away from its previous all-time high.
- đ The altcoin market has experienced a cycle of performance with a lack of sustained interest outside of specific sectors like memes and AI.
- đĄ The current market is influenced by a Bitcoin catalyst, primarily the Bitcoin spot ETF approval, which has led to a Bitcoin-led rally rather than an altcoin one.
- đ« There is a lack of interest in the general altcoin market, with retail investors gravitating towards meme coins, causing a shift away from utility coins.
- đ° The market is experiencing high levels of token dilution, with new token issuance reaching an all-time high, affecting the value of existing tokens.
- đ The speaker suggests that the altcoin market may not peak until late 2024 or 2025, based on historical market cycles, and advises viewers to monitor key indicators for market entry.
Q & A
What is the main argument presented in the video script about the altcoin market?
-The video script argues that contrary to popular belief, we are not currently in an altcoin bull run. The speaker provides empirical evidence suggesting that altcoins have underperformed compared to Bitcoin and have not seen the same level of growth or recovery.
What is the significance of the 'Others BTC' chart in the context of the video?
-The 'Others BTC' chart is significant because it represents the performance of all altcoins outside the top 10 cryptocurrencies. The speaker uses this chart to illustrate that altcoins are not performing well against Bitcoin and are actually making new lows, indicating that they are not in a bull run.
What campaign is mentioned in the video, and what does it involve?
-The video mentions a campaign in partnership with bofin, where new users who sign up for a blof account using a provided link and deposit $100 or more are eligible to receive 100,000 Pepe, 10,000 Flaky, and three Whiff tokens. Additionally, there is a lucky wheel that users can spin for a chance to win various prizes.
How many tokens are given away in the bofin campaign for new users who sign up and deposit $100?
-For new users who sign up and deposit $100, the campaign gives away 100,000 Pepe tokens, 10,000 Flaky tokens, and three Whiff tokens.
What is the purpose of the lucky wheel in the bofin campaign?
-The lucky wheel in the bofin campaign allows users to spin for a chance to win various prizes, including large amounts of different tokens. Users can earn spins by building up volume on the exchange, with one entry for every $10,000 in Futures volume.
What giveaway was mentioned in the video, and how can winners claim their prize?
-The video mentions a $100 giveaway for people who commented on the speaker's Vlogs indicating their country of origin. Winners are asked to reply to the speaker in the YouTube chain with their Solana address, which should be a native Sol wallet, to receive their prize in Solana on the Solana blockchain.
What is the current sentiment in the altcoin market according to the video?
-According to the video, the current sentiment in the altcoin market is not positive, despite Bitcoin being near 70k. Many altcoins have retraced a lot of their yearly gains, and the market is experiencing a shakeout, leading to a negative sentiment among retail investors.
What is the speaker's view on the future of the altcoin market?
-The speaker is cautiously optimistic about the future of the altcoin market. They believe that while the current situation is not indicative of a bull run, there is potential for a recovery and that the market could turn around, especially considering historical patterns and the possibility of retail investors returning.
What factors contribute to the underperformance of altcoins according to the video?
-The video suggests several factors contributing to the underperformance of altcoins, including the market being led by a Bitcoin Catalyst (the Bitcoin spot ETF approval), lack of interest in the general altcoin market except for a few select sectors, high token dilution due to new token issuance, and the rotation of retail investors into meme coins.
What is the potential bullish scenario for altcoins presented in the video?
-The bullish scenario presented in the video is based on the idea that the real altcoin rally typically happens towards the end of the bull run, once the 'Tipping Point' on total market cap is broken. If altcoins were to rally by 100% from the Tipping Point level, it could lead to a significant increase in the altcoin market cap and a potential explosion in altcoin values.
Outlines
đ Altcoin Market Misconceptions
The speaker clarifies misconceptions about the altcoin market, asserting that despite popular belief, we are not in an altcoin bull run. Empirical evidence suggests otherwise, and the speaker aims to provide data-driven insights into the current state of the altcoin cycle. The video promises to change viewers' market perspectives, investment strategies, and timing of investments. The speaker also highlights a campaign with bofin, offering token giveaways for new account sign-ups and deposits, and announces the winners of a $100 giveaway from a previous engagement campaign.
đ Bitcoin's Dominance Over Altcoins
This paragraph delves into the performance discrepancy between Bitcoin and altcoins, with Bitcoin experiencing a bull run while altcoins have not seen similar gains. Retail investors, who predominantly hold altcoins, are not benefiting as much from Bitcoin's surge. The speaker presents data showing altcoins' underperformance over the past year and emphasizes the difference in market sentiment despite Bitcoin's high valuation. The analysis includes the 'Others BTC' chart, illustrating altcoins' failure to sustain pumps and the impact of market narratives like AI and memes on altcoin performance.
đ Data Points Indicating No Altcoin Bull Run
The speaker discusses various data points that support the argument against an ongoing altcoin bull run. These include the performance of altcoins relative to Bitcoin, the number of coins breaking their all-time high post-FTX, and the decline in crypto YouTube views, which correlates with market sentiment. The data suggests that altcoins are underperforming, and the speaker challenges the viewer to reconsider their market assumptions based on this evidence.
đ€ Reasons Behind Altcoins' Underperformance
In this segment, the speaker explores the reasons behind altcoins' failure to rally, despite the overall growth in the cryptocurrency market. The primary catalyst for the market has been Bitcoin, particularly the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, which has driven significant inflows and price increases for Bitcoin but not for altcoins. The speaker also touches on the lack of interest in the general altcoin market, except for a few select sectors like meme coins and AI, and how this has contributed to the overall underperformance of altcoins.
đĄ Market Dynamics and the Impact of Meme Coins
The speaker examines the impact of meme coins on the altcoin market, noting that the retail investor's shift towards meme coins has affected the performance of utility coins and other alts. This behavior has led to a market dominated by meme coins, which are difficult to trade and carry high risks. The speaker also discusses the issue of token dilution, with new token issuance reaching an all-time high, contributing to the decrease in value per token and affecting the overall altcoin market cap.
đź Future Outlook for Altcoins
The speaker provides an optimistic outlook for the altcoin market, despite the current underperformance. They discuss the uneven distribution of returns in the market and the potential for an altcoin rally based on historical data and market cycles. The speaker suggests that the altcoin market may be a year away from a peak, taking a balanced view between the extremes of market timing. They also highlight the importance of monitoring market data and being prepared for potential opportunities in the market.
đ Preparing for the Upcoming Altcoin Rally
In the final paragraph, the speaker encourages viewers to be prepared for the potential altcoin rally, suggesting that the current market conditions may present opportunities for strategic entry. They discuss the possibility of a low chop period for altcoins and advise viewers to stay informed and engaged with the market. The speaker also mentions a campaign offering incentives for new deposits and trading volume, providing a positive note to conclude the video.
Mindmap
Keywords
đĄAltcoin Market
đĄBull Run
đĄEmpirical Evidence
đĄMarket Cycle
đĄSentiment
đĄRetracement
đĄMacro Events
đĄToken Dilution
đĄMeme Coins
đĄLiquidation Cascade
đĄCrypto YouTube Views
Highlights
Contrary to popular belief, the altcoin market is not currently in a bull run, despite what the Bitcoin price and market sentiment may suggest.
Empirical evidence will be presented to challenge the misconception that the altcoin market is thriving.
Understanding the altcoin cycle is crucial for successful investing and timing investments in the current market.
Announcement of a new campaign with bofin, offering token giveaways for new account sign-ups and deposits.
Details of a lucky wheel feature where users can win various prizes, including tokens, based on trading volume.
Revelation of the winners for a $100 giveaway based on viewer engagement in a previous video.
Discussion of the price action discrepancy between altcoins and Bitcoin, indicating that altcoins are underperforming.
Only eight coins have broken their previous all-time high against Bitcoin since the fall of FTX.
Crypto YouTube views have significantly decreased, suggesting a lack of retail interest in altcoins.
Bitcoin's price action compared to the altcoin index shows Bitcoin outperforming and leading the market.
Altcoin performance has been lackluster over the last three quarters, with a few exceptions in select sectors.
The altcoin market has been primarily driven by a Bitcoin catalyst, specifically the Bitcoin spot ETF approval.
Interest in the general altcoin market has been limited, with a focus on meme coins and select sectors.
The ease of deploying smart contracts and the low barrier to entry in crypto have led to an increase in token dilution.
New token issuance on the EVM has reached an all-time high, contributing to market dilution and affecting altcoin prices.
The potential for an altcoin rally is still present, but the market may need to break a specific tipping point first.
Market cycles and historical data suggest that the altcoin market could peak in late 2024 or early 2025.
The current market sentiment is split between those who feel the market is hot and needs to cool off, and those anticipating a greater run.
The presenter's optimistic view of the market, suggesting that the real altcoin party has not yet started.
A reminder to stay informed, keep researching, and be prepared for potential opportunities in the market.
Transcripts
today I'm going to tell you the truth
the truth about the altcoin market
despite many people getting trapped into
thinking the exact opposite I think a
lot of people have been trapped into
thinking that we're in an altcoin Bull
Run when we actually aren't we have
empirical evidence suggesting against
this which I'm going to get into in
today's video because it contextualizes
exactly where we sit in the altcoin
cycle and understanding and interpreting
this data is going to be so important if
you want to succeed this cycle because
it's going to change the way that you
view the market it's going to change the
way that you invest and it's also going
to change the way you time your
investment so I believe today's video is
going to be a very very very important
one we're going to go through all the
data relating to the altcoin market
looking at why I do not believe we're in
a bull run and a lot of people are
getting trapped as a result result of
that thinking and then I'm going to get
into what could happen next for the
altcoin market off the back of this data
when can we expect a recovery for TS
will there be a recovery for altcoins
and More in today's video so without
further Ado let's get into it as you can
see in front of you it's a little bit
nasty on the market right now for
altcoin a lot of them have retraced a
lot of their yearly gains over the last
few weeks especially over the last few
days Market a little bit shaky and
drisking into a few macro events that
are coming later this week but before we
get into the major data that I want to
take a look at because some of it is
negative data I want to give you a
little bit of joy in today's video
towards the beginning and that is
firstly the announcement of a new
campaign that I have going with bofin so
what we're going to be doing is giving
away 100,000 Pepe 10,000 flaky and three
whiff tokens to anybody that signs up to
a new blof account using the Link in the
description and deposits $100 or more so
just for signing up to a new account
you're going to get your hands on
100,000 pep Bay 10,000 flowy and three
whiff for the first 200 users only as
long as you deposit $100 and then after
you've done that you can move over to
the lucky wheel where you can spin the
wheel and win 5,000 Pepe 300,000 FY 100
whiff 5 million flaky 1 million Pepe or
any of the prizes here on the wheel you
don't need to deposit in order to spin
the wheel if you're an existing user you
can spin the wheel the way that you earn
lucky spins is via building up volume on
the exchange so you'll get one entry for
every $10,000 in Futures volume and it's
unlimited entries meaning the more you
trade the more you spin I had people in
my Discord from the last campaign that
we ran with just Pepe now we've got Pepe
whiff and Flaky spinning 40 50 times in
a month because they naturally acre
volume from from trading on the exchange
so little bit of good news to start this
video if you do want to sign up and get
access to this awesome campaign there is
a link in the description below to
blowen the second piece of good news for
today's video is I have selected the
winners for the $100 giveaway that I
discussed last week for people that
commented which country they're from on
my Vlogs to work out whether you're a
winner you want to go onto that video
and see if I've replied to your comments
you can see I've replied to team Melanie
here Jim Birdman a bunch of of people
randomly and basically all you have to
do if you are selected as a winner is
reply to me in this YouTube chain so
just click reply with your salana
address that should be a native Soul
wallet so I can send you salana on the
salana blockchain as you can see I've
selected a bunch of people here you're
each going to win $100 of salana so
congratulations to all the winners to
check if you're a winner go onto that
video and see if I've reply to your
comment in the top right of the YouTube
page on desktop there's also a little
notification bar which will let you know
if you've received a new reply so
congrats to everyone there I might run a
future giveaway for subsequent episodes
of the miles Deutsche Vlog Channel as I
start to upload more of this content but
let's get into the meat and the potatoes
of the video here there are a few
different sections the first section I
want to start with and it's the most
important for understanding where we
currently sit in the market in order to
be objective towards the market and
unbiased towards the market and that of
course is the data that suggests that
alt coin aren't in a bull run now I know
it sounds kind of weird um to sit here
and say look we aren't in a bull run
because you know you look at Bitcoin at
70k you look at Celebrities talking
about memes again coinbase in the top 10
on the app store again and all of these
typically positive signs tend to lend
towards the fact that retails back and
lend towards the fact that altcoins are
in a bull run but when you actually look
at the price action discrepancy between
alts and Bitcoin it becomes very clear
that we actually have not been in an
altcoin Bull Run we've been in a Bitcoin
Bull Run we've been in a mean coin bull
run but the majority of retail they
don't hold a large amount of Bitcoin
they aren't meme coin experts they hold
ults on centralized exchanges and then
it starts to become more obvious why
there is a major discrepancy right now
between the sentiment of retailing the
market sentiment on Twitter and even
YouTube right now is not that great
despite Bitcoin being near 70k and it
becomes much clearer when you look at
well alt coins actually haven't
performed that well this year haven't
really performed that well over the last
8 months and it's no wonder why people
do feel a little bit annoyed do feel a
little bit impatient are capitulating
just a tiny bit because a lot of them
aren't capitalized in these other assets
like Bitcoin and memec coins which have
been outperforming now there is a graph
here which contextualizes exactly what
I'm saying perfectly and this is the
others BTC chart others is the
cryptocurrency index outside of the top
10 so this should represent all of the
altcoins in the market falling outside
of the top 10 which is mostly
capitalized of things like Bitcoin e BNB
usdt usdc Etc so those are obviously
outliers when you go outside of that the
picture becomes very clear seeing that
we are currently at a lower level than
we were during October
2023 so sitting 8 months on from October
2023 where the major Bitcoin rally began
we are nowr ly lower so there was a
period during that initial rally when
Bitcoin started running up due to the
spot Bitcoin ETF where altcoins actually
outperformed this is likely by way of
the fact that ults were so oversold
during the 2022 FTX period and then
heading into 2023 so when Bitcoin
recovered SS recovered a little bit
faster because a lot of them had
aggressive repricing to do after being
smacked down into crazy lows right so
they outperformed but as the market
started to develop and we've seen some
other narrative rotations like Ai and
memes start to come to the foray of the
market the majority of the altcoin pumps
have failed to sustain and this is in
light of Bitcoin actually maintaining
its relative strength not only versus
crypto but also against the US dollar
being at 70k and a lot of other asset
classes I know Bitcoins are like 67 68k
but 65k 75 70 it's all pretty much the
same for Bitcoin obviously though within
that range where Bitcoin might move in
5K increments altcoins can do a lot of
upside or in this case a lot of damage
as they're kind of moving on a
heightened risk beta SL sentiment to the
Bitcoin price itself so this was one of
the most telling charts when I was
digging through the data to try and
understand this question of why is
sentiment so bad despite Bitcoin being
near 70k because this chart pretty much
sums it up exactly altcoins are not
performing well versus Bitcoin they're
actually making new lows now technically
we are still above the Wick low that we
made on April 14th during that
liquidation Cascade um but by and large
in terms of a consecutive period of
trading in a Range we are below that
level in October for the longest we've
been which is pretty crazy now the
second data point which I found super
interesting which also lends towards
this theory of us not actually being in
an altcoin Bull Run is the fact that
since the fall of FTX only eight coins
eight have broken their previous
all-time high versus Bitcoin now
obviously this sample size is inclusive
of coins that were around in 2022 so
it's naturally not going to include some
of the memes for example that I
mentioned earlier like Pepe with Etc
which have been performing simply
because they do not qualify under the
pretense of a coin that has been around
since FTX most Majors however have been
around since FTX when you think about
the majority of the altcoin market and
many of those coins in fact most of
those coins have not managed to break
their previous all-time high versus
Bitcoin and this is just another data
point going hand inand with the others
BTC chart which clearly demonstrates
that altcoins aren't performing that
strongly and then you have metric number
three which I find really interesting
and this is the crypto YouTube views so
you can see that Bitcoin at 70k in 2021
was yielding 4 million views a day on
crypto YouTube these are all the biggest
channels actually for some reason I
wasn't included but anyway uh Mr
Benjamin Cowan who made this indicator
uh I I do forgive you but if you want an
updated list I can give you some new
channels but basically he has listed a
lot of the major channels that were
around in the last bll and also around
now and it shows you that they were
getting 4 million views a day in 2021 in
2024 they're only getting 800,000 views
a day despite Bitcoin being near that
70k level and this is kind of the
reverse data point that I was showing
before because this is not
representative of altcoins Performing
poorly it's showing a major symptom
as to why altcoins are performing poorly
the symptom being the YouTube views
because YouTube views are
symptomatic of sentiment in the market
when retail because most retail holds
altcoins primarily and not Bitcoin when
altcoins are performing well sentiment
increases when all coins are performing
poorly sentiment decreases leading to
oscillating view counts AKA really high
views when alts are outperforming the
market in March 2021 and really low
views when altcoins are underperforming
the market
in June 2024 but it's really interesting
to look at versus the Bitcoin price
because it doesn't actually make sense
on face value and there's also this
hopium argument when you look at this
chart that you know it's only a matter
of time that retail is going to come
back and this discrepancy will
eventually be ironed out and then
there's a lot of upside during that
period that's something I'm going to get
into at the end of the video when I talk
about what I think is next for altcoins
because it is rational logic in a sense
but that's also a couple caveats uh that
I have to present when going tooo
heavily down that line of thinking the
fourth out of the fifth data point that
suggests that we are not in an allcoin
Bull Run um and I think it's becoming
quite clear by now but all of this data
is super important and interesting is
simply mapping out the Bitcoin price
action versus total 3 which is the
altcoin index you can see that Bitcoin
right now is currently sitting 9% from
its previous all-time high 67 to 73k but
if you look at total three the altcoin
index it's currently sitting 78% away
from its previous all-time high so
Bitcoin basically from the bottom has
managed to move up 315 in price whereas
the altcoin index from the bottom has
only moved up
122% in price which basically means
Bitcoin has been outperforming and
leading the market thus
far this chart actually does give me a
bit of hopium because when you purely
look at it from a price p performance
perspective you know one could consider
a potential discrepancy shortening here
resulting in altcoins catching up to
bitcoin given the fact that Bitcoin is
pushing up against its alltime high and
alts still have a long way to go but at
the end of the video I'll talk about
this in a little more depth but this
chart really does say it all if you want
a visual representation for the market
lagging and then the fifth data point
for why allcoins aren't in a bull run
and I found this really interesting is
how they've been performing cyclically
over the last three quarters I really
like this summary from Eugene which
contextualizes altcoin performance so
far and how it's transformed this cycle
so Q4 2023 everything off lows no fear
of the cycle being over many multiples
achieved on the majority of alts across
different verticals cool q1 2024 several
charts resetting but crazier moves on
select alts occur dispersion begins to
take effect with good Al still running
very hard but picking the wrong coin you
likely wouldn't have made a ton and I
did notice just anecdotally looking at
the YouTube views engagements on my post
Etc that the March period during that
final AI run was really the local top
for the market in terms of retail
sentiment there was a period of maybe
two to three weeks where retail really
quite quickly came back to the market
and then really soon left after the
market started to reverse and we got
that ShakeOut in the beginning of April
so it shows that if you want to look at
it from the positive lens retail does
have the the propensity to come back in
droves when there are catalysts and when
there is a little bit of hype but that
hype is very reflexive and shortlived
because it's highly reliant on price so
I guess when you're asking the question
of what's it going to take for retail to
get back this cycle the answer could be
as simple as higher prices and higher
prices don't necessarily have to be a
result of retail coming back higher
prices can be driven by insiders and
liquid funds Etc driving price up due to
crypto specific macro Catalyst and then
retail can come in and give it that
final push so that is one of the
positives in the market when you do look
at you know the whole when is retail
going to come back question but q1
really did show how quickly they can
come back but also how quickly they can
leave and then heading into Q2 I mean we
had that Big D leveraging event at the
start of April things started to become
choppy dispersion really increased
Bitcoin chopped within a range and most
alts blade a lot of their gains and
that's why you see the others BTC chart
bleeding during this period despite
Bitcoin being pretty stagnant in that
range here between 60k and 70k it looks
quite small when you zoom out on the
weekly but you'd be really surprised
looking at the one day 4 hour for the
alts because they've been so volatile
even though Bitcoin really is just
moving sideways in a Range so now you
have a better understanding of what's
happened in the altcoin market I think
the next really important thing to
understand before we of course get into
what's next Vol coins is wild haven't
rallied so we've talked about the data
and it gives you maybe 50% Insight but
the other really important 50% Insight
is why alts haven't rallied what are the
reasons for this underperformance
because it's easy to sit back and say
look alts have underperformed blah blah
blah but you know why why is this the
case you have to ask the way in order to
really really really understand the
inner workings of this market and thus
become a more profitable Trader the
first reason ult have significantly
underperformed is because this Market
was led by a Bitcoin Catalyst primarily
this is of course the Bitcoin spot ETF
approval and its subsequent inflows
which surprised a lot of people and we
know this is the major driver behind the
market because the real rally for
Bitcoin began in October 20123 at
27k and the most extended leg happened
during the period of a lead up into the
approval and then B the second leg
happened post approval when the inflows
surprised people for the positive and we
saw that second leg to the upside from
40K to 70k so this was largely a spot
ETF rally a Bitcoin Le rally and
although the rising tide does lift All
Ships and although we did see altcoins
still perform well during that period
don't get me wrong like if you do look
at the altcoin market uh from October it
still went up 100% it just didn't go up
300% like Bitcoin because it was a
Bitcoin Le rally and then SS were a
beneficiary but not a major beneficiary
and this is because the macro conditions
weren't really lined up for alts in this
stage of the cycle they were lined up
for a Bitcoin rally and look one can
make the argument that Bitcoin leading a
rally is actually quite positive and
healthy for the market because we want
Market structure to begin with a strong
Bitcoin pump and then we want that
siphoning effect happening when the time
is right and when the stars are lying
for an altcoin run which they haven't
yet so part of me is bearish on the fact
that altcoins have underperformed versus
Bitcoin um but pomy is also optimistic
and bullish because that is healthy
Market structure and we do need Bitcoin
to typically lead rallies otherwise
there simply a won't be enough liquidity
to sustain a pump in the General market
and B Bitcoin going up is great
marketing for crypto it lends a lot of
legitimacy to crypto I mean the spot ETF
approval for Bitcoin led to the E ETF
approval which is obviously a major
positive for crypto so these are all
positive advancements but of course in
the short to medium term not all of
these advancements are necessarily
realized in the way of price in the
market the next reason why altcoins have
underperformed is because of interest
there hasn't been interest in the
General altcoin market aside from a few
select sectors so you have mem coin
significantly out performing you have
rwa performing AI we saw some lsds
perform but apart from these very select
sectors most stuff is down nfts are down
derivatives are down options are down
real yields down l1s are down dexes are
down l2s are down gamei is down it's
basically a meme coin super cycle
because a lot of the retail that's come
into the market they haven't gravitated
towards the centralized exchange olds
they've gone straight to the meme coins
they've gone straight to the bottom of
the barrel and look this is a deep per
problem which I'll probably get into in
a future video but one of the major
reasons I believe this is the case is
because a lot of retail don't see the
moneymaking potential in the market by
holding
High fdv alts by holding you know big
utility old coins a lot of the price
Discovery by the time a lot of these new
coins list on the market has already
been realized in the early stage the VCS
have priced it at $10 billion it lists
at $10 billion getting into a coin at 10
billion even if it's the shiniest newest
most amazing piece of technology it's
not that enticing so retail that wants
to make money in crypto they've had to
jump right down the risk curve into
things like memes to have a shot at
turning $1,000 into $100,000 because
you're not going to do it on a lot of
majors and I think a lot of the issues
in the current altcoin market are
actually a symptom of what has been
happening in the pre-market the VC
Market the early stage rounds Market the
fact that price Discovery is now
happening prior to launch this is a
major issue that has resulted in
valuations that are simply too high
unsustainable an insane amount of
dilution coming into the market and and
a lot of people don't know where to turn
and they've jumped straight for memes
but this is also tricky right because a
lot of you won't be meme coin experts
most people aren't mcoin experts memes
are hard to trade like I've hit some
good memes hit a 50x on Pepe did well on
whiff maybe like a 5 10x there hit a
couple other memes like a 10x this year
but a lot of them would just luck and
there's also been five or six examples
of times where I put you know $510,000
into a meme and lost all my money so
you're kind of spraying and praying to
try and catch a couple mcoin winners but
you're going to hit eight losers along
the way and by and large that's really
the strategy behind investing in meme
coins this cycle unless you know you're
going a bit safer some have talked about
on these shows and going for the leaders
but because it's not easy to make money
in memes or at least it's harder than
some people think it's kind of created
an issue for the market because a lot of
people that are in the utility coins
have rotated out of those positions to
chase the mcoin runs like if you've been
sitting in you know madic optim M
arbitrum Etc you would be fomo because
you're seeing everyone everyone make
money in memes right and then you get
trapped into selling your quality bags
and putting it into memes and then
spraying and praying and getting wrecked
on eight coins and then it's just bad
for the market overall you're putting
your money in the hands of the Insiders
that got into the memes early these are
the big whales they're they're not
genuine holders in the market you have
real retail exiting because they've just
rotated their utility bags and gotten
wrecked on that trade and then you see
even more people leaving crypto so it's
an interesting argument because although
memes are a good attractor genuinely for
retail to come into crypto they're also
a bit of a detractor especially if
you're a fundamentalist because this
Cycle's been so frustrating to trade and
a lot of people that have moved into the
meme coins out of these utility
positions have gotten burnt and that's
people getting burnt in the market is
not great for the market and it's
probably another reason why SS haven't
rallied because people are still getting
over the PTSD from the FTX days Etc and
then of course one of the issues I was
alluding to before and this is a result
of the mem coin Mania as well is the
crazy token dilution we're getting we
can see that the new token issuance on
evm in one month in May was two times
the total amount of tokens ever created
between 2015 and 2023 so there's an
all-time high amount of dilution coming
onto the market which means although
alts might be creeping up in terms of
overall market cap a lot of major caps
simply aren't running or they're
bleeding because liquidity is rotating
into these new coins and it's just a
constant case of dilution it's it's it's
very very simple if you're going to
inflate a currency and in this case
we're looking at the token economy as a
whole if you're going to inflate that
Supply the value per unit is going to
drop it's the same thing that's happened
if you want a real world example to the
US dollar pretty much every major
Central Bank currency over the last 50
years as they continue to issue currency
so you know the US government printing
US dollars that dollar is going to go
down in value and that's why relative to
Goods the US dollar is weaker so petrol
is higher you know your iPhone costs
more they used to be $199 now they're
what $15,000 food's more expensive
shopping's more expensive rent's more
expensive that's a result in part to
inflation of money Printing and it's the
same in the crypto Market as more tokens
are created the price per token actually
decreases if you want to average it out
by the total Market C divided by the
total amount of tokens in the market to
get that number that number doesn't
matter though because we have the data
here we know that the tokens on the
blockchain being issued are pretty much
at their alltime high and it's for a few
reasons mcoin Mania obviously is one of
the major reasons but also the ease of
deploying smart contracts with things
like pump. fun the salana stats weren't
even referen here but they're crazy
they're even more crazy than this and I
excluded them because they were a bit of
an outlier but you know that's obviously
crazy um and obviously it's easier than
ever cheaper than ever to get developers
Etc and crypto is a very easy industry
to to deploy a project and raise Capital
that's a low barrier to entry compared
to tradire where it's actually really
hard to get a product off the ground
which I guess the low barrier to entry
in crypto is a good thing because it
democratizes entrepreneurship and
creativity but it's also a negative
thing because it means it's easier for
grifter to enter the space and easy for
people to extract value from the space
with less downside risk or or less
barriers and of course this new token
launch craze has also resulted in a lot
of dilution now the official number is
that there's $60 Million worth of linear
unlocks per day across the majors but I
can tell you this number is a lot higher
if you want to look into the market
that's not priced on token unlocks so
the you know top 500 top 1,000 top 2,000
tokens you'll notice that the number is
closer to $200 million of new dilution
per day so this is new Supply from
existing tokens not even new tokens
launching that was the first point the
next point is existing tokens that are
looting World coin salana avac you know
Stark arbitrum Aptos all these coins
putting Supply Supply Supply onto the
market and look what happens when you
get a bunch of new Supply on the market
and not a bunch of new retail coming in
and buying alts prices are going to go
down so it's not really hard to work out
now why prices have been going down on a
lot of vaults it's it's not hard to work
out at all it's a dilution issue it's a
sentiment issue it's everything combined
everything I've talked about to really
paint this overall picture of look we're
not in an allcoin bull run but you may
have already known that and look I hope
you found some of the data interesting
and helpful in the way that you view and
approach the market but what can you do
about it now when will things turn
around if so when I don't want this
video to be overly bearish or sound
overly scared or worried because that's
actually not how I view the market at
all I am quite bullish on the mid to
long-term prospects of the market um I
do believe things are going to turn
around around it's in the data as well
so let's discuss that even though I
think you got to be wary of these things
to actually make better decisions which
we're going to get into now part of the
reason why there's disagreement if you
ask people where we are in the cycle is
as cred points out here the sheer
discrepancy and difference between
returns so returns this cycle have been
unevenly distributed the Bitcoin eth
large cap midcap small capup trade
hasn't really panned out so you really
have two camps in the market right now
you have Camp a who rode things like
Bitcoin soul and memes they feel like
the Market's really hot and probably
needs to cool off and maybe they aren't
as bullish on the prospects of the
market and then you have the second Camp
which have barely made any money because
they're in altcoins they feel like stuff
hasn't even picked up yet you know
they're not heavily in Bitcoin Solen
memes and they're anticipating a greater
run coming at some point soon because
for them they've already made insane
profits in the market so I thought this
was a great tweet by cred because it's
shows why there's a bit of an argument
but argument aside there's clear data
that actually indicates or can give us
at least a bit of a bearing because not
every cycle is the same as to where we
sit so what you're looking at here is a
chart the red line is each harving 2016
2020
2024 the blue line here is the line
which represents how many days it took
for the total crypto market cap
excluding Bitcoin so altcoins and
ethereum to pick so in 2016 it was 546
days from Haring to Peak in 2020 it was
546 days from Haring to Peak again now
2024 we've just had the harving so
actually we're in this period now we're
in this period
now we're in this period of the market
shouldn't even be that bullish for
altcoins if you want to look at the past
two cycles because the Run typically
doesn't happen until the year prior that
would suggest in 546 days from the
harving in 2024 uh in mid April that we
would see a bull run peak in October
2025 this suggests we're over a year
away from an altcoin
Peak now this is interesting data
because look I don't believe you can
look at two data points one two and say
look three is going to play out exactly
the same it's also going to be 546 days
that means we're going to hit a peek in
October that means we're so early I
don't think you can say that because
markets evolve markets are tied to macro
2021 and 2022 respectively for macro and
crypto knocked things around a lot we
are seeing alltime High delution we're
seeing a left leing cycle from a Bitcoin
perspective Bitcoin broke its alltime
high the earliest in a cycle that it
ever has so that suggests that we are
left
leaning however if I had to guess I
would say it's somewhere in the middle
of these two
expectations we aren't left leaning
enough in my opinion for us to have
topped already but we aren't elongated
enough for us in my opinion to be
topping next year in October I think the
answer is somewhere in the middle
somewhere in this range here more
conservatively Q4 late Q4 this year to
early to mid q1 next year to maybe a bit
more of a mild expectation of maybe a Q2
Peak 2025 this is my best expectation
currently based on the price action that
we are seeing
as to when I do think we we get see an
altcoin rally and remember altcoin
rallies the real run typically doesn't
happen until you break the Tipping Point
on total three now the Tipping Point was
on February 15th in 2021 where altcoins
after breaking out from that level
rallied
144% The Tipping Point for this cycle
because that was the initial High we've
seen a rejection we're now in this flag
is at 790 billion so if we do similar
gains from that level and rally another
100 % this would take us to 1.5 trillion
on the altcoin market cap which honestly
if this happens alts would absolutely
explode things would be crazy we're all
rich and you know amazing
basically so this is the bullish
scenario here that this final leg for
altcoins are where pretty much all of
the gains are made and we haven't even
broken that Tipping Point yet so the
real altcoin party does not start until
we break that level and it's usually in
the final months of the bull run that
you get that extended leg to the upside
and if you do want to look at where
altcoins sit right now I know we're
currently in a bit of chop and there's a
bit of panic online look we're still in
this
wedge the low for alts is 560 if we if
we do want to go down and we break down
and test range low we're probably going
to come down to this level I imagine
we're going to respond off this level if
not we could end up actually recovering
here breaking out to the upside of this
flag and testing range highs it's all
about monitoring the data this week
there's a lot of macro data I'm very
cautious to say on this stream you know
where my bias lies in the short term
because data can change things quick
this is a drisking prior to these events
but we are still actually in this flag
overall overall though if you want to
look from a macro perspective because
this is a more of a macro related show
it's this level 780 that you want to
look out for until then we can chop
sideways this could be a low vault chop
period for crypto and what I would say
to you um is just be prepared for it you
know if summer ends up being a low chop
period for crypto it's an amazing period
to actually start exposing yourself to
the market taking advantage when you get
low volume you can get these Cascades
these Wicks some altcoins can be
relatively liquid this can give you
price action which leads to entries so
do keep that in mind and I did mention
this on my show on Friday that this can
actually be an opportunistic period for
people that are willing to get involved
during this period because you know we
know Q4 historically is a better quarter
for cryptocurrency and lining up with
previous cycle performance if you look
at the fractals like I just showed you
crypto typically does start to wake up
uh towards the end of the Haring year
and the early stages of the post harving
year and that's really positive for the
market so stick in there keep
researching keep hustling because these
short-term sentiment swings are super
fickle I think you can take this video
in in two ways you can take it in one
way damn we're not an all coin Bull Run
I was misled I was trapped you know it's
over or you can take it in the positive
light of we are not even in an all Cen
Bull Run look at what happened with a
tiny slice in March what happens when we
get a bigger slice and that is more of
the optimistic approach that I tend to
take to the market and then obviously we
can use PA technicals Etc to give us a
bit of bearing of when we are
potentially getting into that mode total
3 is one basic way that you can look at
this the clearing of the previous highs
here but also there are many other
indexes you can use others BTC BTC as
the leader of the alt Etc are all
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to everyone participating in the spinner
game hopefully you got some value from
today's video I will see you in the next
one have a lovely rest of your day peace
out
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