AK Parti ve CHP'nin kaybedeceği kritik iller! Ankara, İstanbul, Bursa, Balıkesir, Antalya...!!!

Summary

The transcript is a conversation between a journalist and a pollster about the upcoming 2024 Turkish local elections. They discuss the Ankara and Istanbul mayoral races, predicting close contests between the ruling AK Party and opposition candidates. The pollster analyzes the chances of each party's candidates, the impact of potential endorsements, and voter motivations. He believes the opposition could win Ankara but the AK Party has the advantage in Istanbul. The pollster stresses the importance of political alliances in swaying the outcome in these critical races.

Takeaways

• 😀 The Ankara mayoral race between Turgut Altinok and Mansur Yavas is very close, Melih Gokcek's support could help Altinok win.
• 😲 Ankara will be a very tight race decided by 100-1000 votes, unlike Istanbul which will have a clear winner.
• 👍 Murat Kurum is seen as a capable candidate for Istanbul who can solve major issues like earthquakes, fires and urban issues.
• 😊 Kurum's projects and promises for Istanbul are effective and have mobilized voters.
• 😎 Ekrem Imamoglu is seen as a victim and has gained sympathy after not being made the presidential candidate.
• 😍 Imamoglu has built connections across Turkey, he can mobilize voters with his slogan 'full speed ahead'.
• 🤔 The opposition Good Party and HDP's bases are anti-Erdogan, around 80% will vote for Imamoglu.
• 🧐 CHP will announce Izmir's candidate in mid-February, likely Tunç Soyer, Olgun Atilla or Canan Kaftancıoğlu.
• 😕 AK Party could lose Balıkesir but is likely to retain other major cities like Ankara, Istanbul, Antalya.
• 🙂 Turgut Altinok needs Melih Gokcek's support to win Ankara, they should come together for the election.

Q & A

What were the expectations around a Gökcek family member running as a candidate in Ankara?

There were public expectations and polls showing that having a Gökcek family member as a candidate could significantly influence the results in Ankara, due to their popularity and the support they had previously received.

What does Altınok need to do to win in Ankara according to Gezici?

Gezici believes Altınok needs to visibly join arms with Melih Gökçek to unite the political equations and gather enthusiastic votes across the spectrum.

How does Gezici assess Murat Kurum's potential as an Istanbul mayoral candidate?

Gezici sees Kurum as a promising face of the AK Party who has proven himself competent during disasters and crises. He believes Kurum's projects and promises have been impactful and could attract votes.

What is the outlook for Ekrem Imamoglu's chances in Istanbul?

Gezici predicts Imamoglu has built substantial goodwill across Turkey and maintained enthusiasm among the opposition grassroots, enabling him to possibly win Istanbul by a small but clear margin.

Why might the HDP run a candidate in Istanbul?

Gezici speculates the HDP might claim a mandate from their base in Istanbul and justify nominating Başak Demirtaş to challenge the exclusion of Öcalan and the peace process.

Which critical cities could the CHP lose?

Gezici names Ankara, Istanbul, Antalya, Adana and Mersin as places the CHP has a high chance of losing to rival alliances.

What is the outlook for İzmir?

Gezici expects the CHP to nominate one of three prominent figures - Tunç Soyer, Olgun Atilla or the CHP's Istanbul secretary general.

Which city does Gezici predict the AK Party could lose?

Balıkesir is named as the only city where Gezici sees a possibility of the AK Party-led alliance losing the mayoral election.

How does Gezici characterize the state of the Nation Alliance?

Gezici notes disarray and demotivation in the grassroots of the Nation Alliance parties, except for enthusiasm surrounding Imamoglu in Istanbul.

What message does Gezici's analysis send about the coming elections?

Gezici warns that critical races like Ankara could be decided by razor thin margins, displaying a polarized climate around the 2023 national elections.