PPN 12% Dibatalkan, Investasi Pasar Modal 2025 Makin Menarik?

Summary

The transcript discusses Indonesia's recent 12% VAT decision and its impact on the economy. The decision, though positively received by the public, has caused technical challenges for businesses already adjusting their pricing systems. Investment managers express concerns about the effects on consumer purchasing power and inflation. There is also a discussion on market trends, particularly the lack of a 'Santa Claus Rally' in the Indonesian stock market, partly due to foreign investor shifts toward U.S. assets. Looking ahead, the influence of U.S. economic policies under Trump and their potential impact on Indonesia’s economy and market are also considered.

Takeaways

• 😀 The final decision on the 12% VAT was seen positively, as it met public expectations, despite the technical complications caused by the last-minute decision.
• 😀 Business sectors had already adjusted their pricing and IT systems in anticipation of the VAT increase, which could lead to price hikes even if the VAT rate is reverted.
• 😀 A potential decrease in prices due to the reversal of the VAT increase is unlikely, and overall, prices are expected to continue rising, impacting the purchasing power of the lower and middle classes.
• 😀 Investors in the capital market had already shifted focus to more resilient sectors, like retail and consumer staples, in anticipation of the inflationary effects of the VAT increase.
• 😀 Despite the anticipated rise in inflation due to the VAT increase, the overall sentiment among investment managers remained positive, as domestic consumption is a significant driver of Indonesia's GDP.
• 😀 Investment managers hoped for government incentives to help protect the purchasing power of the lower middle class, especially following the pandemic, which significantly impacted their savings.
• 😀 A key positive development is that government incentives, such as free nutritious meals, are being implemented earlier than expected (starting January 6).
• 😀 The lack of a significant 'Santa Claus rally' in Indonesia’s stock market at the end of 2024 was attributed to the strength of the U.S. dollar and the shift in investor sentiment towards U.S. assets.
• 😀 The depreciation of emerging market currencies, including the Rupiah, and foreign selling in large-cap stocks in Indonesia was influenced by the strengthening U.S. dollar, particularly after Trump’s election victory.
• 😀 Looking ahead to 2025, market movements will depend on the U.S. dollar index, inflation trends, energy prices, and how global central banks respond to U.S. policy changes, especially under the new U.S. administration.

Q & A

What is the general reaction to the Indonesian government's decision to implement a 12% VAT increase?

The decision to implement a 12% VAT increase is seen as positive by the government, aligning with public expectations. However, the late timing of the decision introduced technical challenges in its implementation, causing some operational complexities for businesses.

What are the primary concerns of businesses regarding the 12% VAT increase?

Businesses are concerned about the potential for higher prices as a result of the VAT increase. Traders often raise prices more aggressively than the official tax hike, which could disproportionately affect the lower- and middle-income classes, potentially reducing their purchasing power.

How has the 12% VAT hike affected the stock market and investor sentiment?

In response to the VAT hike, investors have shown preference for more resilient sectors, such as consumer staples and retail. While the overall market saw some shifts, concerns about inflation and price increases prompted a more defensive approach in investment strategies.

What role did the U.S. dollar index play in the performance of emerging markets, including Indonesia?

The rise of the U.S. dollar index by 7% negatively impacted emerging markets like Indonesia, as foreign investors redirected their capital to U.S. assets. This resulted in a sell-off of Indonesian stocks, particularly those in the banking sector.

Why did Indonesia's stock market fail to experience the typical Santa Claus Rally at the end of the year?

The lack of a Santa Claus Rally in Indonesia can be attributed to the stronger U.S. dollar, which led to capital outflows from emerging markets. While the U.S. market benefited from political events like Trump’s victory, Indonesia’s market remained relatively subdued due to external factors.

What sectors were positive performers in Indonesia's stock market despite the overall downturn?

Sectors such as energy, property, and consumer staples showed positive performance, while the banking sector, which comprises a significant portion of the market index, experienced notable declines.

What key factors are expected to influence investor sentiment in 2025, according to the interview?

In 2025, key factors influencing investor sentiment include the strength of the U.S. dollar index, U.S. inflation trends, energy prices, and U.S. monetary policy. These global economic factors are expected to have a significant impact on Indonesia's market, especially in terms of currency exchange and interest rate fluctuations.

How could the U.S. presidential policies, particularly under Donald Trump, affect Indonesia's economy?

Donald Trump's policies, especially regarding trade tariffs and immigration, could have indirect effects on Indonesia. However, his positive relationships with OPEC and potential energy policy adjustments may help stabilize oil prices, which could benefit Indonesia’s economy and reduce inflationary pressures.

How do the external global factors, such as the U.S. interest rate policy and oil prices, affect the Indonesian market?

Global factors such as the U.S. interest rate policy and oil prices are crucial for Indonesia's market. A stronger U.S. dollar and higher interest rates could reduce foreign investments, while stable or lower oil prices may help mitigate inflationary pressures domestically, benefiting Indonesia’s economy.

What are the expectations for the Indonesian stock market in 2024 based on the interview?

The Indonesian stock market in 2024 is expected to be influenced by global monetary policies, particularly those from the U.S. Federal Reserve. While there is caution due to external factors like the U.S. dollar strength, certain sectors such as energy and consumer staples may perform well, offering some stability in an uncertain global environment.