How Trump Plans to Deport 4% of the U.S. Population | WSJ

Summary

The transcript discusses the massive financial and logistical challenges of executing Donald Trump's proposed mass deportation plan, estimated to cost hundreds of billions over a decade. Deporting 13 million undocumented immigrants would require significant increases in ICE staff, detention centers, legal proceedings, and removal flights. Experts debate the feasibility, with some suggesting economies of scale could reduce costs. The plan would involve high costs for detention, legal processing, and transportation, with political hurdles in securing sufficient funding. Ultimately, the plan's success depends on congressional support and long-term implementation.

Takeaways

• 😀 The estimated cost of Donald Trump's mass deportation plan is between $162 billion and $315 billion, with some experts predicting even higher costs over a decade.
• 😀 Trump’s proposal involves deporting up to 13 million undocumented immigrants, which is approximately 4% of the US population, a scale larger than the entire US prison and jail population in 2022.
• 😀 The plan would require a massive increase in resources, including the addition of over 30,000 new law enforcement agents to manage deportations at scale, making it the largest federal law enforcement agency.
• 😀 The deportation process would involve a combination of at-large arrests, where ICE officers would target undocumented immigrants in the community, often requiring significant manpower and coordination.
• 😀 Detaining individuals for deportation is extremely expensive, costing around $200 per day per person. Family detention, which requires specialized care for children, is even more costly.
• 😀 To handle 1 million deportations a year, ICE would need to build 216 temporary soft-sided detention facilities annually, a significant infrastructural challenge.
• 😀 The legal processing side of the deportation plan is a major bottleneck, with an estimated need for 2,000 additional immigration judges and over 1,100 more courtrooms to handle the volume of cases.
• 😀 The government would also need to build 'tent courts' to speed up hearings, with costs associated with constructing and operating these temporary courtrooms potentially exceeding $100 million annually.
• 😀 The cost of deportation flights is another significant concern, with over 6,000 removal flights needed annually, each costing about $117,000 per hour. Private contractors could further inflate costs.
• 😀 Political challenges and funding will be crucial to the success of the plan. Despite Republican control over Congress, securing the necessary budget and overcoming opposition from Democrats remains a significant hurdle.

Q & A

What is the estimated cost of Donald Trump's proposed mass deportation plan?

The estimated cost of the mass deportation plan ranges from $162 billion to $315 billion over the course of a decade. The higher estimate would exceed the budget of most federal agencies in fiscal year 2024.

Why is the cost of the mass deportation plan so high?

The high cost is due to several factors, including the need for a massive increase in resources such as ICE agents, detention facilities, transportation logistics, and legal processing. Additionally, the cost of detaining individuals, particularly families, adds significantly to the expenses.

How many ICE agents would be needed to carry out the deportation plan?

It is estimated that over 30,000 new ICE agents and staff would be required, making it the largest law enforcement agency in the federal government.

What is the role of local law enforcement in this plan?

State and local law enforcement could assist in carrying out at-large arrests, as they already collaborate with ICE in some cases. This would help expand ICE's ability to carry out arrests without the need for additional federal agents.

What are the challenges with detaining immigrants during deportation?

Detention is the most expensive part of the process. Detaining individuals, particularly families with children, requires special care, including access to pediatricians, child welfare professionals, and schooling. This raises costs significantly.

How would the legal processing of deportations impact the plan?

Legal processing would be a major bottleneck. An additional 2,000 immigration judges and 1,100 courtrooms would be needed. Each case could cost over $2,500, and the process would be slowed by the high volume of cases.

What alternative solutions have been proposed to reduce the cost of detention?

One suggestion is to repurpose existing detention centers, such as those at Guantanamo Bay, or even to use third countries like Panama or Mexico for holding immigrants. This could help reduce the financial burden of detaining large numbers of people in the U.S.

How would deportation flights be handled under this plan?

The plan would require over 6,000 deportation flights annually, significantly increasing costs. ICE currently conducts around 1,000 flights annually, but the scale of deportation proposed would require a substantial increase in air transportation capacity.

What challenges would the government face in securing funding for this plan?

Securing funding would be difficult due to the large scale of the operation. While Senate Republicans may prioritize border security, the narrow majority in Congress and the high costs involved make it uncertain whether sufficient funding would be allocated.

What is Trump's approach to mass deportation, and how does it differ from previous administrations?

Trump's approach focuses on a large-scale deportation of undocumented immigrants, including those who entered illegally as children. This would involve targeted arrests, detention, and legal processing, in contrast to the more limited deportation strategies of previous administrations like Obama's.