ROI AFTER BITCOIN 2024 HALVING (I UNDERESTIMATED IT).

Summary

In this live stream, the host delves into Bitcoin's Return on Investment (ROI) after a recent surge, comparing it to previous cycles and highlighting the current cycle's performance. They discuss the potential for altcoin season, noting the significant 90-day ROI of top altcoins compared to Bitcoin. The host also touches on negative news, such as credit card and auto loan delinquencies, and the repeal of a bill discouraging banks from providing custodial services for digital assets. Despite these, they highlight positive developments, including Bitcoin ETFs' success, with institutional investors like JP Morgan and Morgan Stanley holding significant stakes, suggesting a bullish outlook for Bitcoin's future.

Takeaways

• 📈 The speaker discusses the recent performance of Bitcoin, highlighting a dip in ROI but still being ahead of schedule compared to previous cycles.
• 🌕 The video script mentions a previous video where the speaker advised taking profits during a green day, sparking controversy among viewers who believed in continued upward momentum.
• 📊 The script references Ben's website for data on Bitcoin's ROI, showing that as of the date of the video, the ROI for cycle four was 1.01, compared to 7.38 in the previous cycle.
• 📉 The speaker notes a trend of diminishing returns across Bitcoin investment cycles, with the first cycle in 2012 showing an ROI of 85.44, and the most recent cycle showing 1.01.
• 🚀 The script explores the concept of 'altcoin season', suggesting that if 75% of altcoins outperform Bitcoin over 90 days, it may be too late to invest in altcoins as the opportunity may have passed.
• 📊 The speaker points out that three out of the top five cryptocurrencies with the highest 90-day ROI are meme coins, indicating a significant, albeit potentially volatile, interest in these types of assets.
• 📉 The script mentions Chainlink's negative ROI over the last 90 days, but notes a recent partnership with JP Morgan and other financial institutions, suggesting potential for future growth.
• 🗓️ The video discusses the historical best days for dollar-cost averaging (DCA) investments, suggesting certain days of the week may be more advantageous based on past price trends.
• 💳 The script addresses macroeconomic concerns, such as credit card debt and auto loan delinquencies, which have risen to concerning levels and could impact the financial landscape.
• 🇺🇸 The video mentions a bill (SAB1 121) that discourages banks from providing custodial services for digital assets, which was repealed by the House and Senate, but may face a presidential veto.
• 📉 JP Morgan's analysis predicts limited upside for Bitcoin's price in the near term due to lack of positive catalysts and disappearing retail impulse, but the speaker disagrees with this assessment.

Q & A

What is the main topic discussed in the video script?

The main topic discussed in the video script is the Return on Investment (ROI) for Bitcoin and altcoins, along with the current market trends and some macroeconomic factors affecting the financial landscape.

What is the current Bitcoin ROI according to the video?

According to the video, the current Bitcoin ROI for cycle four is at 1.01, indicating a 101% move from the halving price.

What was the ROI for the previous Bitcoin halving cycle?

The ROI for the previous Bitcoin halving cycle (cycle three) was 7.38, which took place from around May 11th or 12th of 2020 until the peak of that cycle.

What does the video suggest about taking profits in the cryptocurrency market?

The video suggests that while it's important to be aware of taking profits at certain points, it's also crucial to consider the long-term potential and not just focus on short-term gains.

What is the current status of altcoin performance compared to Bitcoin according to the Altcoin Season Index?

The Altcoin Season Index shows that 29% of the top 50 altcoins have a 90-day ROI greater than Bitcoin, suggesting that altcoins have been outperforming Bitcoin over the past 90 days.

What are some of the top-performing altcoins mentioned in the video?

Some of the top-performing altcoins mentioned in the video over the last 90 days include Pepe and Dog with Hat (meme coins), Weave, Fetch AI, and Near Protocol.

What does the video suggest about the timing of the altcoin season?

The video suggests that if 75% of altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin over 90 days, it might be too late to consider it the beginning of the altcoin season, as the best opportunities might have already passed.

What recent development with Chainlink is mentioned in the video?

The video mentions that Chainlink completed a pilot project to accelerate fund tokenization with JP Morgan, Templeton, and BNY Mellon participating, which led to a significant price increase for Chainlink.

What macroeconomic factors are discussed in the video that could impact the financial market?

The video discusses the high levels of credit card debt and auto loans transitioning to delinquency, which could lead to defaults and potentially impact the financial market negatively.

What is the significance of the Bitcoin ETF inflows mentioned in the video?

The Bitcoin ETF inflows mentioned in the video indicate a shift in institutional sentiment towards Bitcoin, with significant inflows suggesting increased interest and investment from institutional players.

What does the video suggest about the future price of Bitcoin?

The video suggests that despite some negative headwinds, there is a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, with traders targeting a price of $74k in the near future due to institutional interest and positive market sentiment.