Top Ukraine General ADMITS War UNWINNABLE
Summary
TLDRThe video script discusses the recent developments in Ukraine, focusing on Russia's strategic shift in its military and economic approach. President Putin's replacement of the long-time defense minister, Serge Shoigu, with an economist signals a move towards a more robust and self-sufficient Russian economy, heavily reliant on its military-industrial complex. Despite setbacks and allegations of corruption, Russia's military power is growing, and its economy is outperforming the Euro Zone according to the IMF. The script also highlights the challenges faced by Ukraine, with a top Ukrainian General stating that victory on the battlefield alone is not feasible and that treaties are needed to end the war. The situation remains volatile, with Russia conducting tactical nuclear weapon drills, escalating tensions and the risk of a broader conflict. The video emphasizes the need for negotiations and a resolution to prevent further escalation and instability.
Takeaways
- 🔄 **Replacement of Russian Defense Minister**: President Putin has replaced his longtime defense minister, Sergey Shoygu, with a former deputy prime minister specializing in economics, signaling a shift towards economic management within the military-industrial complex.
- 📈 **Russian Economic Resilience**: Despite sanctions, Russia has managed to bolster its economy by ramping up its military-industrial complex, becoming a major employer and increasing artillery production.
- 🏆 **Putin's Popularity and Power**: Putin's popularity is at an all-time high, and he has a stronger hold on power, with oligarchs not deserting him despite sanctions.
- 🚀 **Russia's Military Advancements**: Russia's military has become more powerful and efficient, with new leadership and a more robust war footing compared to before the war.
- ⛔ **Failed Ukrainian Invasion**: The initial Russian invasion of Ukraine did not go as planned, with the early phases being disastrous for Russian forces.
- 💰 **Economic Focus of New Defense Minister**: The new defense minister's background in economics indicates Russia's focus on economic aspects of warfare and the integration of the military with the economy.
- 🔍 **Stalemate in Ukraine**: The war has reached a stalemate, with Russia gaining the upper hand and looking to increase defense production to support the economy and maintain public support.
- 📉 **Decline in Ukrainian Defense**: Ukraine's ability to intercept Russian missiles has declined, with a significant drop in interception rates, highlighting a strategic problem for Ukraine.
- 🤝 **Need for Negotiations**: A top Ukrainian General suggests that meaningful negotiations for peace may not begin until the second half of 2025, and even pushing Russian forces back would not end the war.
- ⏳ **Risks of Prolonged Conflict**: The ongoing conflict is seen as a risk, with the potential for increased instability and future problems in Eastern Europe.
- ⚔️ **Potential for Escalation**: There is a danger of the conflict escalating due to actions like Putin's order for tactical nuclear weapon drills, which are seen as a deterrent to the West.
Q & A
Why did President Putin of Russia replace Serge Shu as the defense minister?
-President Putin replaced Serge Shu with a former deputy prime minister who specializes in economics, indicating a shift towards economic management and a fusion of the war industrial complex, which has become a significant part of Russia's economy post-sanctions.
What does the replacement of the defense minister suggest about Russia's current economic situation?
-The replacement suggests that Russia is in a more robust and self-sufficient place than before the war, with a focus on ramping up their military-industrial complex to pump money into the economy and become a major employer.
How has Russia's military performance evolved since the early phases of the war?
-Russia's military performance has improved significantly since the early disastrous phases of the war. They have mastered attritional warfare and have developed custom strike packages to maximize penetration of missile defense systems.
What is the current interception rate of Russian missiles by Ukraine?
-In the past 6 months, Ukraine has intercepted only 30% of Russian missiles, down from 73% in the preceding 6 months.
Why is the Ukrainian General, General Spitzky, skeptical about Ukraine's ability to win the war on the battlefield alone?
-General Spitzky does not see a way for Ukraine to win the war on the battlefield alone because even if they were able to push Russian forces back to its borders, it wouldn't end the war. He believes wars can only end with treaties and meaningful negotiations can begin only in the second half of 2025 at the earliest.
What does the Ukrainian General suggest about the future of Russia's military production?
-According to General Spitzky, Russia's military production has expanded but will reach a plateau by early 2026 due to shortages in material and engineers.
Why is there a concern about the potential for a nuclear conflict in the current situation?
-The concern arises because as the Ukrainian military situation worsens, there is a risk that Western nations might intervene more directly, which could provoke a stronger response from Russia, including the use of tactical nuclear weapons.
What is the current state of the conflict in the media and public perception?
-The conflict has slid from the front page and is being pushed to the back of Americans' memories and attention span. There is a lack of discussion about a clear plan or negotiation, and the media is not focusing on it as much as before.
What does the speaker suggest is the current strategy of the United States regarding the conflict?
-The speaker suggests that the United States is 'kicking the can down the road,' funding the conflict without a clear plan to end it, which increases the risk of a larger disaster and the decimation of Ukrainian generations.
What is the significance of the recent tactical nuclear weapon drills ordered by Putin?
-The drills are a show of strength and a deterrent to the West. They come in response to perceived threats from France, Britain, and the United States, and highlight the potential for the conflict to escalate to a nuclear level.
Why does the speaker believe that the situation is still very dangerous?
-The speaker believes the situation is dangerous due to the ongoing tension, the potential for direct Western intervention, and the risk of the conflict escalating to involve nuclear weapons. The long-term nature of the conflict and the lack of a clear resolution path also contribute to the danger.
Outlines
🏛️ Russian Security Shakeup and Economic Focus
The video discusses a significant shift in Russia's defense strategy, as President Putin replaces the longtime defense minister, Serge Shu, with a former deputy prime minister who specializes in economics. This change indicates Russia's focus on economic management and the integration of the military-industrial complex into the economy. The move is seen as a sign of strength, with Russia's economy reportedly outperforming the Euro Zone and Putin's popularity at an all-time high. The new leadership is expected to be more efficient, and the military more powerful, despite the ongoing conflict in Ukraine and allegations of corruption within the system.
💥 Russian Military Advancements and Ukrainian Challenges
The video highlights Russia's progress in mastering attritional warfare and the development of custom strike packages to maximize missile penetration. It notes a decrease in Ukraine's interception rates of Russian missiles and an increase in the effectiveness of Russian tactics. A Ukrainian General, cited from The Economist, states that Ukraine cannot win the war on the battlefield alone and that meaningful negotiations may not begin until the second half of 2025. The video also criticizes the ongoing support for Ukraine, questioning the strategy and the risk of escalating the conflict, including the potential for nuclear engagement.
⚔️ Escalating Tensions and the Risk of a Wider Conflict
The video concludes with a discussion on the heightened tensions and the potential for a larger conflict, particularly if Western forces were to become more directly involved in the conflict. It mentions Putin's recent order for tactical nuclear weapon drills as a deterrent to the West and the precarious situation this creates. The video suggests that the conflict is being downplayed in the media and that there is a lack of a clear plan to resolve it, leading to a dangerous and prolonged situation that could have severe consequences for the region and the world.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Military-industrial complex
💡Economic management
💡Attritional warfare
💡Missile defense systems
💡Oligarchic corruption
💡Tactical nuclear weapon drills
💡Keynesianism
💡Interception rate
💡Stalemate
💡Nuclear war
💡Status quo
Highlights
President Putin of Russia has replaced Serge Shu, the longtime defense minister, with a former deputy prime minister specializing in economics, indicating a shift towards economic management and military-industrial complex integration.
The replacement signifies Russia's increased self-sufficiency and robust economy post-sanctions, with a focus on military-industrial complex as a major employer and driver of economic growth.
The new leadership is seen as more competent and efficient, potentially making Russia's military even more powerful.
Despite the failed invasion of Ukraine and allegations of corruption, Russia's military production is ramping up, and they are gaining an upper hand in the conflict.
The Ukrainian special reconnaissance unit commander reports that Russian forces have made significant gains in the Carke region, highlighting a shift in the war's dynamics.
Russia's missile defense systems have been tested and improved over two years, leading to a decrease in Ukraine's interception rates.
Ukraine has only intercepted 46% of Russian missiles in the past six months, down from 73% in the preceding six months.
A top Ukrainian General, General Spitzky, does not see a way for Ukraine to win the war on the battlefield alone and suggests meaningful negotiations could begin in the second half of 2025.
There is skepticism about the feasibility of military objectives and the potential for pushing Russia back to its borders without achieving a war win.
The ongoing conflict is seen as a risk to stability, with Putin ordering tactical nuclear weapon drills to deter the West.
The situation is described as dangerous, with the potential for escalating tensions and the possibility of a larger disaster if Western forces intervene.
The transcript suggests a lack of a clear plan or media discussion on securing negotiations, with an emphasis on the human and economic costs of the conflict.
The conflict is being pushed to the back of American memories and attention spans, with a focus on maintaining the status quo.
Despite the risks, there is an argument against increasing the risk of nuclear war or further destabilizing Eastern Europe.
The transcript highlights the need for a shift in strategy, potentially towards forcing a deal or accepting the conflict as irrelevant.
The situation is framed within a broader context of international tension and the potential for conflict escalation, drawing parallels with other geopolitical standoffs.
The call for a subscriber-funded independent media organization to provide alternative perspectives on such complex and critical global issues.
Transcripts
let's move on to Ukraine uh this was
also a very important story this is one
which uh we've been tabling for a little
while there have been no immediate
developments with the biggest news that
really came out from just two days ago
let's put this up there on the screen is
uh you can look view it in two ways
President Putin of Russia has replaced
Serge Shu who was the longtime defense
minister one of his closest allies in
the Russian government in a major
security shakeup allegedly Crystal he
had been uh he's been nominated and
given a promotion but I guess they call
this like promotion a promotional firing
in the best way possible but what's
fascinating is that he did not put a
military man to replace him he actually
put a former deputy prime minister quote
who specializes in economics to replace
shogo now the reason why that's so
important is that this shows basically
that the Russian economy post sanctions
the way they've been able to survive is
to fully ramp up their entire
military-industrial complex it's the way
that they've been able to pump so much
money into their economy they become one
of the major employers obviously they've
drafted Andor recruited hundreds and
hundreds of thousands of Russian
citizens into the military they've got
artillery production which is coming up
so economic management and a fusion of
the war industrial complex tells us
actually that Russia is in a more robust
and actually self-sufficient place than
it was prior to the war sergey's firing
really comes on the heels of obviously
his failed invasion of Ukraine and some
of his embarrassing it it just revealed
the oligarchic you know corruption that
was inherent to the system hiring
somebody like this especially on the
heels of the many Russian victories
recently uh that have been happening it
tells us where things are going in that
they're coming at this from a total
position of strength their economy is
doing better than the Euro Zone
according to the IMF you know the
international monitor fund you've got
Putin basically more popular than ever
more of a stronger hold on power the
oligarchs themselves all have not
deserted him despite all of these
sanctions and now you're putting
somebody frankly even more competent
who's in charge which if you think
Russia's an adversary is not necessarily
something that you want so by all means
their military is much more powerful
their new leaders are much more
efficient and they're showing us that
their War footing is actually on more of
a basis today than it was before and
that any attempt to degrade their
capacity has not happened despite the
$200 billion or whatever that we've
spent so far yeah so reportedly there's
a few things going on here um to start
with shyo is the guy who thought that
they would just roll into keev and knock
off the zilinsky government and it' be
over like this and no no problem and
obviously that didn't work out and
you'll remember the early phases of this
war went very badly for Russia I mean it
was really a truly a catastrophic like
disastrous showing from the Russian
military there's also you know all these
I'm sure Justified allegations of
corruption in sense that he's like you
know corrupt dude who's um you know
eating off the tee of the state so
there's that and then the I think bigger
picture here is that they describe this
economist I'm going to go with bellav as
his name they say he's a fan of military
Keynesian keynesianism he believes in
the supremacy of the government in the
economy government first then business
and so it's an acknowledgement too of
the Contours of where this war is at
this point that basically like you know
you're in this somewhat of a stalemate
right Russia is starting to gain the
upper hand and one of the key questions
here is um you know how can your economy
perform how can you spin up as much
defense production as possible and um as
as Sager's about to talk about there are
a lot of signs that you know the
ukrainians not only because there's been
a lull in their support from the US that
lull has now been filled don't worry
guys all the stuff is coming to you but
because they have so little of their own
defense production capabilities um that
you know over the long run Russia is
focused on being able to spin up their
own production and using that to bolster
their economy and also keep people happy
in terms of wages and jobs Etc they're
going to be they're going to be in a
much better position no and they are in
a better position so let's go to the
next part and we've just got sign after
sign after sign that this just
catastrophic news at every turn for the
ukrainians here we have major offensive
in the carke regions quote according to
their own Commander the Russians simply
walked in this is the commander of the
Ukrainian special reconnaissance unit
who fought in the carke offensive and
yet what is he talking about here he
says quote now his men are facing the
prospects of doing the exact same
walking in all over again because
Russian forces have made small but
significant gains right along the border
of the carke region their advances quote
are only a few miles deep but have
swallowed up nearly 100 kilometers
already of Russian territory and that in
the more heavily defended east of
Ukraine it has taken Russia months to
achieve the same so they're trying to
consolidate as many of their gains as
possible before major Aid begins to flow
from the west but even if the aid does
begin to flow you're going to see that
the Russians have really mastered of
attritional Warfare on the ground they
know what they're doing now at this
point let's put this up there for
example Russia's bombardment of Ukraine
is more lethal than ever and what you
see is that the Russians have now had
two years to test NATO missile defense
systems and ones that The ukrainians
Have and Have developed custom strike
packages that are maximized penetration
and so that they can hit all of the
targets that they want they say in the
past 6 months Ukraine has intercepted
only 46% of Russian missiles compared
with 73% in the preceding 6 months
before the interception rate has fallen
to 30% now and the interception rate for
these long range Iranian drones has fell
1% to 82% in the past 6 months so drones
you know remain relatively easier for
them to shoot down they seem to have
mastered that but missiles which are are
you know frankly the something that
Russians any highly Advanced nation
state would be able to develop has
largely been able to use and employ them
and it's something that the ukrainians
themselves have been one of the biggest
strategic problems for them that is
happening on the ground I would also
show you this a very recent interview
with the Ukrainian uh the a top
Ukrainian General General spitzky this
is from The Economist I'll read you
directly what he has to say he does not
see a way for Ukraine to win the war on
the battlefield alone even if it were
able to push Russian forces back to its
borders quote an increasingly distant
Prospect it wouldn't end the war such
Wars can only end with treaties he says
right now both sides are jockeying for
the most favorable position ahead of
potential talks but according to him
meaningful negotiations can begin only
in the second TW half of 2025 at the
earliest he says by then Russia will be
facing serious headwinds because their
military production has EXP expanded but
it will reach a plateau by early 2026
due to shortages in material and
Engineers frankly this is all cope and
it's BS you know their artillery
production all of their military
production has no signs that it's going
to Plateau anytime soon if anything
they're making exponential games year
over-year and Crystal if they're going
to admit that even if they were to
achieve their so-called military
objective and push the uh Russians all
the way back to to their borders that
they still wouldn't win the war then
what are we doing here why are we
spending all this money except you know
increasing the risk of nuclear war Andor
a a serious problem in Eastern Europe
which the last thing that we all need
right now I mean I can tell you what
we're doing it's just pushing the
problem off to you know after the
election and pushing it kicking the can
on the road because there's no real
possibility of ending the war at this
point there's you no effort to secure
some sort of negotiation as we've
discussed before anytime that American
Presidents actually you know draw down
troops withd draw from an area they get
take hell from the news media I mean you
can imagine if there was some actual
concrete deal and Ukraine had to give up
the dbas or Crimea or whatever
officially Biden would be killed he I
mean not literally guys but in the Press
they would it would be wall to--all
negative coverage just like we saw with
Afghanistan so it's just like we'll keep
funding it we'll just try to preserve
the status quo Kick the Can down the
road at the cost of you know courting
disaster and at the cost of decimation
of generations of Ukrainian men and you
know future possible instability um for
years and years to come so that's the
phase we're in at this point and no one
even denies that I mean there's not even
a plan you don't even hear this it's not
even talked about in the media anymore
we're entering that phase as well you
you see you know obviously we've pulled
some Wall Street Journal reports and
whatever but when's the last time you
heard them talking about this on cable
news is very much slid from the front
page it's just this sort of Perpetual
ongoing conflict that they're working
hard to push to the back of Americans
memories and you know attention span and
hope that something undefined
potentially one day changes absolutely
and uh last but not least just to
highlight why this remains dangerous
let's put this up there we still see a
lot of actions from Putin and from
Russia which we don't want in a stable
World puter Putin orders tactical
nuclear weapon drills quote to deter the
West which was only a week or so ago he
said on Monday that it would practice
their deployment of tactical nuclear
weapons after what Moscow said were
threats from France Britain and the
United States this is because the
insanity of of all of this is that as
the ukrainians do worse and worse on the
battlefield and as the West realizes
that a alone will never be able to prop
them up we have two choices we can force
them to cut a deal and we can just wash
our hands of an irrelevant conflict or
what the British and the French want to
do is hey maybe we send some troops
there on the ground Special Forces and
others immediately the Russians were
like yeah if you do that we will kill
them we will strike and kill soldiers
who were deployed onto Ukraine and now
what you know we're in Article 5
territory we're in a whole other
disaster and that's why the tactical
nuclear weapon drills are not all that
far away I mean we talk about this too
with with Israel and Iran just because
it didn't go hot that one time it's just
all about tension and tension and
tension when you read history it's very
rare that a single event just happens in
a vacuum it's easily predictable if you
go back and you look at all the signs
some of which can take years I mean you
know 10 15 years of tension and buildup
and all that before something eventually
explodes so recency bias is far too high
this is still a very very dangerous
conflict that's happening that's
absolutely the case hey guys if you like
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