How Far Away Is a Ceasefire? An Update on Gaza and the Rafah Invasion | Ian Bremmer
Summary
TLDRThe video script discusses the escalating conflict between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, with a focus on the Israeli military operation in Rafah and the challenges of achieving a ceasefire or sustainable peace. Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, provides insights into the perspectives of both Israelis and Palestinians, emphasizing the lack of common ground between the two sides. He highlights the Israeli demand for the destruction of Hamas' military capabilities and the Palestinian aspiration for territory control. Bremmer also discusses the international response, including the U.S. and Egypt's efforts to mediate, and the potential implications of the conflict on regional stability and U.S. domestic politics. The conversation underscores the complexity of the situation, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, and the difficulty in finding a peaceful resolution.
Takeaways
- 🚨 The Israeli military operation in Rafa, Gaza, aims to eliminate Hamas fighters and infrastructure, causing concern for the 1.2 million Palestinians in the area.
- ⚔️ There is a significant ideological gap between Israel and Hamas, with no overlap in their goals, making a sustainable peace or even a ceasefire challenging.
- 🇮🇱 The Israeli population broadly supports the destruction of Hamas's military capabilities and leadership, irrespective of defense capabilities.
- 🕊️ Hamas continues to fight for control over territory they believe belongs to Palestinians and does not recognize Israel's right to exist.
- 🤝 Negotiating with Hamas as a terrorist organization has been difficult, with the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar trying to facilitate discussions.
- 💣 Israel is not yet at a military endpoint where they feel they must change their approach or offer more in the negotiation process.
- 🔍 The situation in Gaza is dangerous and operates in a gray zone, with the potential for broader regional and international implications.
- 👤 Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, suggests that personal suffering of Hamas leaders might influence their decisions, but ideology remains a strong driver.
- 🏛️ The Israeli government, despite international pressure, does not feel compelled to change its approach significantly.
- 🛑 President Biden's administration has shown reluctance in directly confronting Israel, even suspending some offensive weapons to Israel.
- 🕰️ The timeline for a potential resolution is uncertain, with Bremmer suggesting that a full-scale invasion of Rafa by Israel is still possible.
Q & A
Why did Israeli tanks enter Rafa in southern Gaza?
-Israeli tanks entered Rafa as part of a military operation aimed at eliminating Hamas fighters and their infrastructure.
What is the estimated number of Palestinians sheltering in the area during the Israeli invasion?
-There are an estimated 1.2 million Palestinians sheltering in the area.
What are the Israeli population's general sentiments towards Hamas?
-The Israeli population, spanning the political spectrum from right to left, generally wants Hamas destroyed, its leadership brought to justice, and its military capabilities eliminated.
What is the stance of Hamas towards Israel?
-Hamas does not recognize the right of Israel to exist and is ideologically committed to fighting and representing their aspirations for control of the territory they believe belongs to the Palestinians.
What has been the role of the United States in trying to facilitate peace between Israel and Hamas?
-The United States, along with Egyptians and others, has tried to facilitate negotiations and a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, despite the challenges posed by the lack of common interests between the two parties.
What is the current status of the Israeli military action in Rafa?
-As of the time of the discussion, Israel has conducted significant airstrikes and tank movements into parts of Rafa, distributed evacuation flyers, and is managing the evacuation of territory, but a full-scale invasion has not yet occurred.
What are the conditions the United States has set for Israel regarding the situation in Rafa?
-The United States has set conditions that include ensuring the safety of Palestinian civilians in Rafa and allowing adequate humanitarian aid into Gaza.
What is the likelihood of a full-scale invasion of Rafa according to the discussion?
-The discussion suggests that a full-scale invasion of Rafa is still a possibility, depending on the outcome of negotiations and the conditions set by the United States.
What are the challenges faced by Bill Burns, the director of the CIA, in his mission to negotiate a ceasefire?
-Bill Burns faces challenges such as the ideological divide between Hamas and Israel, the difficulty in communicating with Hamas's military leadership, and the political instability within Israel's government.
How does the discussion assess the chances of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu's political survival?
-The discussion suggests that Netanyahu's survival skills are notable, and it is likely that he will remain Prime Minister at least until November, considering the recent conflict has bolstered his image as a patriot and strengthened his coalition.
What is the potential impact of the conflict on the global stage, particularly with regards to anti-Semitism?
-The conflict has the potential to escalate anti-Semitism and intensify extremist rhetoric globally. It may also influence the decisions of leaders and affect diplomatic relations, particularly in the context of the United States' role in the conflict.
Outlines
🚔 Israeli Military Operation in Gaza
The paragraph discusses the Israeli military operation in Rafa, southern Gaza, aimed at eliminating Hamas fighters and infrastructure. It highlights the anticipation and fear among Palestinians, the ongoing war, and the humanitarian crisis. The speaker, Ian Bremmer, provides insight into the conflict, emphasizing the differing goals of Israel and Hamas, which makes achieving a sustainable peace challenging. The Israeli population's desire for Hamas' destruction is contrasted with Hamas' aim to continue fighting and represent their ideology. The discussion also touches on international efforts to negotiate a ceasefire and the potential implications of the conflict on the region and globally.
🏺 The Humanitarian Crisis and Negotiations
This paragraph delves into the humanitarian crisis in Gaza, with a focus on the impact of the conflict on civilians and the challenges of negotiating with Hamas. It discusses the personal suffering of Hamas leaders and the potential leverage of hostages in negotiations. The paragraph also explores the possibility of a safe passage for Hamas leaders as part of a negotiated exit. The conversation touches on the role of the United States and the CIA in facilitating negotiations and the potential consequences of a full-scale invasion of Rafa, including civilian casualties and regional instability.
🔍 Assessing the Prospects of a Ceasefire
The focus of this paragraph is on the likelihood of a successful ceasefire and the potential actions of the Israeli government and military. It discusses the possibility of a temporary ceasefire, the challenges of negotiating with a far-right coalition, and the potential for a full-scale invasion of Rafa. The paragraph also highlights the role of the United States in providing humanitarian aid, ensuring the safety of civilians, and the pressure on Israel to adhere to certain conditions before proceeding with military actions. The discussion also touches on the potential for a broader conflict involving Iran and the risks associated with escalating tensions in the region.
🌐 Global Response and Political Ramifications
This paragraph examines the global response to the conflict, the rise in anti-Semitism, and the political implications for Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu. It discusses the polarization and misinformation contributing to the rise in anti-Semitic sentiments and the complex political landscape that Netanyahu navigates. The paragraph also explores the potential impact of the conflict on the US election and how the Biden administration's handling of the situation could influence voter sentiment. It emphasizes the importance of decisive leadership and the challenges of managing ally relationships during international conflicts.
🕊️ Path to Peace and Two-State Solution
The paragraph explores the possibility of a two-state solution and the challenges to achieving peace in the region. It discusses the potential for a technocratic Palestinian government, the role of the Gulf States, and the need for security and economic support. The paragraph also highlights the changing political climate in Israel, where a majority now opposes a two-state solution. It touches on the divisions among Palestinians, the impact of Israeli policies on Palestinian refugees, and the potential for normalized relations between Israel and Arab nations, contingent on the establishment of a Palestinian state.
📉 Rising Tensions and Future Predictions
This paragraph focuses on the rising tensions in the region and potential future developments. It discusses the potential for attacks from the Houthis, the possibility of a broader conflict involving Iran, and the need to monitor the situation closely. The paragraph also emphasizes the importance of watching for signals of new developments, such as the outcome of Bill Burns' trip to Israel, the humanitarian situation in Gaza, and the potential for escalation in the region. It concludes with a call for vigilance and a hopeful outlook for future negotiations and the potential for peace.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Rafa
💡Hamas
💡Israeli War Cabinet
💡Humanitarian Crisis
💡Eurasia Group
💡Two-State Solution
💡Axis of Resistance
💡Palestinian Authority
💡Anti-Semitism
💡Normalization of Relations
💡Humanitarian Aid
Highlights
Israeli tanks entered Rafa in southern Gaza as part of a military operation to eliminate Hamas fighters and infrastructure.
The invasion of Rafa was anticipated with fear for the 1.2 million Palestinians estimated to be sheltering in the area.
Ian Bremmer, president and founder of Eurasia Group, discusses the ongoing conflict and humanitarian crisis.
Israeli population and government aim to destroy Hamas, seeking justice for their leadership and dismantling their military capabilities.
Hamas continues to fight for their ideology and aspirations for control of territory they believe belongs to Palestinians.
Hamas does not recognize Israel's right to exist, making negotiations with them challenging.
The U.S. and other countries have tried to facilitate negotiations between Israel and Hamas.
Hamas has not faced enough damage to feel compelled to accept Israeli offers for ceasefire.
The U.S. has suspended some offensive weapons to Israel, indicating a shift in their stance.
Saudi Arabia has warned Israel against what they call 'genocide' against the Palestinian people.
Israel does not feel the need to change their approach despite international pressure.
The U.S. has not declared a red line regarding a full-scale invasion by Israel into Rafa.
Bill Burns, the director of the CIA, is involved in negotiations to attempt a ceasefire and prevent further escalation.
A full-scale invasion of Rafa by Israel is still considered possible despite current negotiations.
The U.S. election could impact how the conflict is handled, with Netanyahu's political future tied to the outcome.
Iran's involvement in the conflict and potential retaliation against Israel is a significant concern.
The global response to the conflict has been divided, with rising anti-Semitism and angry rhetoric worldwide.
The possibility of a two-state solution seems distant as both Israeli and Palestinian people move further apart.
Transcripts
on Tuesday May the 7th Israeli tanks
entered Rafa in southern Gaza as part of
a military operation to rid the city of
Hamas Fighters and infrastructure The
Invasion had long been anticipated with
much fear for the 1.2 million
Palestinians estimated to be Sheltering
in the area it feels like a pivotal
moment in an ongoing war and
humanitarian crisis so we thought we
would try to get a deeper sense of what
is going on and what we should be paying
attention to I am delighted to be joined
Once More by Ian brema president and
founder of political risk research and
consulting firm Eurasia group and my
conspirator in this Ted explains the
World Series even though Ian has a
terrible voice right now a terrible
voice a terrible voice I mean how do I
sound so non-an likee it's horrible you
sound really terrible but the good news
is that the insight and the wisdom will
flow all the same so thank you for being
here Ian and welcome thank you Al good
to see it okay so can you lay it out for
us share your perspective of what is
going on right now and crucially what
are we not seeing or appreciating In
This Moment well look so much of this
conflict has been about the fact that
the two
antagonists um the Israeli government um
and Hamas have virtually no alignment no
overlap in what they're trying to
accomplish um and and it's very hard to
come to a sustainable peace or even a
ceasefire that can lasts for anything um
when that's true uh I mean the
perspective of the Israelis and I'm not
just talking about the war cabinet but
the whole Israeli the Israeli population
and there have been some that have been
protesting and demanding that you know
the the Israeli government accept the
Hamas ceasefire most
from the the right the center and the
left want Hamas
destroyed they want the leadership of
Hamas brought to Justice either killed
or captured they want the military
capabilities of Hamas destroyed Beyond
an ability to continue to launch rockets
against Israel irrespective of Israeli
defense and they want um the fighters
the 30 some 30 to 40,000 estimated Hamas
Fighters uh to be gone uh and they're
not close to that military outcome
yet um
Hamas uh of course is trying to find a
way to continue to fight and uh to
represent uh their ideology and their
aspirations for control of territory
that they believe belongs to the
Palestinians um and of course they don't
recognize the right of Israel to exist
so I mean even negotiating with a
terrorist organization is something that
we don't in normal times think a lot
about doing that is what the Americans
the Egyptians the cutteries have tried
to facilitate over the past months but
the reality is that while everybody else
in the world wants the fighting to be
over that the two groups that are
actually fighting don't share common
interests they don't um and and no one
has been forced to cry Uncle I I mean
Hamas just obviously hasn't faced enough
damage that they feel like they have no
alternative but to accept what is being
offered to them by the
Israelis um and the Israeli government
despite the isolation they're feeling
and and you know with even President
Biden now suspending a small number of
offensive weapons which he was
incredibly reluctant to even talk about
as a possibility just a couple months
ago he's now doing it and the Saudis
coming out and saying warning the Israel
to stop what what the Saudis are calling
a genocide against the Palestinian
people that is a big step for a country
that's preparing to normalized relations
with Israel despite all of that Israel
does not feel the need um that they have
to change um and and give more um to the
negotiating process and and that's why
despite the ultimatums that have been
given consistently by the United States
not to go into Rafa um they've gone in
and to be fair they haven't at this
moment you and I talking they haven't
gone all the way in they've done more
than dip a toe um there are significant
air strikes there are tanks that have
rolled into some of it they have given
evacuation flyers and they're moving a
lot of the territory out of big parts of
Rafa um but uh but you would not call
this um a full on crowned Invasion and
at this point the Americans have not
said that the Israelis have breached the
red line of which there is one um what
the American will do if they proceed as
an open question uh and so we're you
know we're in a bit of a gray Zone a lot
of the Middle East operates in Gray
zones in Conflict all the time but this
is very dangerous both for the region uh
and uh more broadly uh and and uh and I
think that's it's a good time to be
talking about what's at stake
here so it's interesting that you say
that Hamas doesn't feel like they have I
don't know if you put it suffered enough
but you know 35,000 Palestinians have
died in this conflict what do you think
will bring Hamas to the table in some
meaningful way look I mean their leaders
some of their leaders have lost a lot of
their families that's true um I my
understanding is that uh the uh the
military leader of of Hamas has actually
had over 30 members of his family killed
um you know so clearly uh there's a
level of personal suffering
and while ideology is driving them in
ways that is hard for you and I to
imagine um it is hard to hard to say
it's driving them blindly you have to
believe that there are other things that
are also Weighing on um their decisions
like the well-being of their families um
and like their ability to continue to
live and fight another
day now I'm I'm sure that that's a part
of the reason they don't want to give up
the hostages not just because there
aren't that many left alive for them to
give up and of course that that has been
a wrinkle in the negotiations over the
past weeks as well as the Israelis have
learned that the um that the first
tranch of hostages that were going to be
released weren't all going to be alive I
you know no one's going to accept that
bait and switch um in Israel um and and
also uh the fact fact that the only way
that Hamas is protecting their leaders
in all likelihood is because they're
deep um under Raa in tunnels with those
hostages um so you know one of the ways
that you get them out is if there is a
possibility of safe passage I mean I
remember when you and I were talking
about progan if Genny
progan who was you know marching Moscow
and he was in an absolutely no win
situation and yet he was willing to cut
a deal with Putin that gave him another
few months of Life on this Earth and
allowed you know his left tenants and
some of his advisors to continue with
their contracts and their jobs you and I
both knew that he was dead man walking
so I mean part of the question is Hamas
has gotten themselves in terms of their
leadership into an
incredibly impossible position they will
be marked no matter where they are for
death by the Israelis by the Americans
by many others for the rest of their
lives that hardens their position it
makes it harder to negotiate with them
but even then if things get too
impossible for them they might be
willing to accept an exit clause to get
out for a third undisclosed country for
a period of time and I got to tell you
most of the world would accept that if
it meant that we could have an end of
Hamas in Gaza uh an end of the fighting
in Gaza but but again at this point you
know what we're negotiating over right
now and Bill Burns the director of the
CIA who has been the adult from the
United States writing heard on these
negotiations him going to Israel is the
last opportunity to get a deal done to
get any time of ceasefire and back away
from fullon onslaught of Rafa that will
cause many thousands more civilian
deaths much more famine and hardship for
the other Palestinians living in Gaza
and much more retaliation from the axis
of resistance and more broadly across
the Middle East so he's going there but
what we're talking about even if he is
successful is not a permanent
ceasefire and I think it's almost
impossible to get this Israeli
government and particularly its prime
minister and his far-right Coalition off
of the idea that they still have
unfinished military business on the
ground in Gaza and they may delay it for
a month or six weeks but they are not
going to delay it indefinitely that that
is not on in the cards in my
view so you mean an A full-scale
invasion of Rafa is still on the cards I
do I absolutely believe that um now what
is defined by fullscale Invasion it's
interesting the Americans have never
told the Israelis that they oppose a
full-scale invasion they haven't said
that they haven't you'd think they'd
said that they hadn't said that they've
said that they want
guarantees that the palestin Ian
civilians living in Rafa um over a
million as you say 1.2 million have a
safe haven have an ability to evacuate
that the Americans consider to hold
water and that's number one number two
that adequate humanitarian Aid is able
to get in to Gaza across the territory
to allow the Palestinians to continue to
survive in anything that looks like life
and as of right now neither of those two
conditions have been upheld um you know
the the and and so if if the Israel and
the Americans have made that very clear
as of today so if the Israelis were to
persist with a full on Invasion absent
those conditions the Americans would be
forced to what suspend cut off offensive
Weaponry make the Israeli buy it on the
market reduce their ability to actually
continue a fight for more than a few
weeks the way they would like to in Rafa
that is what the Americans are trying to
say to Israel right now um but it is not
it is not the case um I mean I I feel
like what if we don't get a
ceasefire a temporary ceasefire what is
likely to happen is that the Israelis
will evacuate more people uh
non-military a men right um but others
um and they can't force them they're not
ordering them but they're you know
they're flying leaflets and they're
saying get out and we'll give you sayfe
passage for a period of time a couple
days four days whatever it is um and
they'll let in more humanitarian Aid
some of which is no longer frankly in
their control they've said an American
private security company is going to be
given control of the border that they've
just taken over at Rafa that's new
that's the last 24 hours and they've
also of course allowed um though they
don't formally occupy it so it's not
really up to Israel to allow it the
United States to build this pier to
allow Goods to get shipped in which
might be open in the next few days even
to allow some additional Aid in I think
that those things will happen Israel
will say that they've met American
demands and then they'll do full-on
Invasion I think that is the plan right
now absolutely short of Bill Burns being
success ful when he gets to
Israel how do you rate his
chances if it was anybody but him they'd
be really low uh he's well respected by
all sides he really is he wouldn't be
going if he didn't have a serious plan
he's not going for window dressing he's
not going to show that the Americans are
giving their all he believes there's a
way through I have a lot of respect for
bill um so I mean I I'd like to say it's
at least a coin flip um I think they're
still really talking they're still
really engaging but let's also keep in
mind Ellen a couple of things here first
um talking to Hamas is hard getting
messages to the military leadership just
one message back and forth can
frequently take one to two weeks by the
cutteries so between the time that they
have said something and when you are
responding to them them frequently the
facts on the ground change and that
makes it a lot harder to get to a deal
and that's how the Americans have
earlier a couple of months ago said yeah
we think a Deal's about to happen and
then you know you hear back from Hamas
and it turns out life is different than
you thought and Biden's being a lot more
careful more cautious this time around
than he was a couple of months ago
everybody has noticed also the fact that
if
nanahu gives too much up um in a deal uh
he will lose his right-wing government
and then he'll fall and and this is a
government who have ministers in a
sitting government who have called for
genocide against the Palestinians right
I mean publicly who have said Gaza
should be leveled full ethnic cleansing
they should be occupying it this is you
know these are ministers of the Israeli
government they are not members of the
war cabinet thankfully so they don't
have control over the war in Gaza but
they are indispensable to nyaho
maintaining his power and so he is being
pushed I mean I have no doubt that BB
will find a way um you know to come to
terms with the deal if he can survive
politically with that deal but if he
can't he'll throw it away and and so
that's where we are right now it's hard
to work with a on
it's hard to work with this Israeli War
cabinet because of the leadership um and
and that's just to get a temporary deal
of a few weeks which everyone will will
see as an incredibly improbable win like
we are at the brink right now and I
would consider it you know a big breath
of fresh air oil prices will go down we
will have a cessation of attacks in the
Red Sea by the houthis um for as long as
the ceasefire is going on there'll be
huge shuttle diplomacy to talk about
next steps Palestinian leadership
governance all of these things but the
reality is we'll still only be looking
at a temporary ceasefire with Hamas
holding on to a smaller number of
hostages each of whom mean a lot more to
hamas's survival right and the Israelis
being pushed harder and harder say what
are you doing to get them out and and
what are you doing to end Hamas so I
don't think this gets easier even if we
manage to pull a rabbit out of a hat
with these negotiations these last ditch
negotiations how do you rate netanyahu's
chances of surviving as the
leader um I mean you know he has
survived longer over many
administrations than almost any of his
detractors would have expected so his
survival skills um are are quite
something um his political instincts his
ability to play higher stakes poker than
you are willing to and push all of his
chips in does it repeatedly um there's
no question that BB thinks he's got a
better chance with his Coalition if he
can make it through the US election and
Trump wins not because Trump loves BB he
doesn't Trump doesn't trust nanyu didn't
like really didn't like the fact that na
promised to be there with the Americans
when the US was going to assassinate
kasum sulamani and then a week before
hand pulled out also really didn't like
that nanahu immediately called Biden to
congratulate him after the election say
I'm ready to work with you Trump
couldn't stand those things Trump
remembers those things talks about it
but but Trump on Israel supports the
far-right position and Trump's advisors
foreign policy advisors around the
Middle East support that position this
is the guy that recognized um Israel's
uh ownership of the Golan Heights he's
the guy that moved the embassy the US
Embassy to Jerusalem he didn't have a
problem with expanded settlements um in
the West Bank uh I mean so a lot of
places where Biden is strongly Pro
Zionist but is more of a Centrist in
terms of who he supports in the Israeli
political Spectrum you know Trump would
support
the far right that um BB has as his
Lifeline it's lud right-wing party
center right and it's the farri
Coalition that's it so I think that Dao
thinks that if he sticks around there
can be other things on the table that
can that can allow him to be a leader
for
longer but but he has to stick around at
this point I think it's more likely than
not that he's still prime minister come
November
uh because even if you have a no
confidence vote um and you force a new
election it's three months from when
that happens to the election and you
know we had this big I'm sure we'll talk
about this but we had this big fight
between the Israelis and the Iranians
that made nanahu look like more of a
patriot he had been responsible for
October 7th that's his legacy then he's
responsible for Israel with allies
defending itself against unprecedented
Iranian strike without a single Israeli
casualty so I think he's bought himself
More Time by virtue of how this war has
go has gone and how the war has expanded
and also how he's managed to keep his
own Coalition on side so yeah I think if
you made me bet I think he's got at
least another six months in him at this
point so the mention of Iran I think is
is really important as as you mentioned
like in April we saw Iran launched
hundreds of drones and missiles onto
Israel in response to an Israeli attack
and I think there was real kind of
everyone holding their breath to see how
that actually shook out do you think
that Iran will respond to this attack on
Rafa or do you think that they're going
to get involved in any bigger way at
this moment not directly but indirectly
but you know here's a really interesting
point Helen you know the Israelis have
had a common practice of killing um irgc
members when they can find them in other
parts of the Middle East not in Iran
itself they've had major cyber
attacks in Iran against their nuclear
program they've assassinated nuclear
scientist right I mean there have been
all sorts of Israeli attacks against
core Iranian interests it's fairly clear
from what happened just a few weeks ago
the Iranian response to an Israeli
attack against an Iranian uh Consular
building basically part of the Iranian
Embassy which Iran considered attack on
its own territory the 300 plus missiles
and drones against Israel and they said
you do this again this is going to be
much worse so the stakes for the status
quo
anti policy of Israel have gotten a lot
higher
next time Israel is thinking about okay
it's time to go after Iran's nuclear
program again the potential for that to
become a war much higher so let's talk
let's break down two different parts of
this first let's look at what happened
between Israel and Iran then let let's
look at what the Iranians are doing
going forward first what
happened so the Israelis who have been
on the receiving end of attacks from all
of these Iranian proxies across the
region and Iran gives the money and
weaponry and training and intelligence
so then the Israelis see this Target in
Damascus the irgc Islamic revolutionary
guards Corps they head for Syria and so
they send missiles in they blow up the
building they kill him and some other
officers um and so then the
Iranians on the one hand they clearly
don't want a war so they tell the Turks
and Iraq Iraqis in advance here's what
we're planning on doing they wait a week
the messages get to the Americans just
going to attack military targets not
going to attack any civilians this isn't
about the United States we don't want
the US involved then they send the
weapons over while the weapons are in
you know in transit the Iranian uh
mission to the UN says hey this is all
we're doing it's in response to what the
Israelis did we consider this now
closed that all sounds pretty good
sounds de-escalatory tit fortat except
they sent over 300 missiles and drones
and I will tell you that no one in the
Biden Administration in the Pentagon in
the White House no one thought that that
was going to happen they they thought
that was such a larger response from
Iran I mean if you wanted to just hit
Israel to show that this is serious you
send 20 30 drones whatever you know
they're going to knock them down you
send over 300 the intention is for a
bunch of them to get through the
intention is to blow up a major Israeli
base to kill Israeli military men and
women if that had
happened the ability of the United
States to contain the Israeli response
to something symbolic would have been
very very challenging we in other words
we might right now be in an Iran Israel
war that theic Americans got sucked into
the Straits of Hormuz would have been
disrupted Iran also bordered in Israeli
linked ship just outside the Straits of
hero right before they sent those
weapons showing this is where this can
go if this gets really ugly that's $150
oil that's Trump as the next president
right that's a that's a major war in the
Middle East the Americans are actively
fighting with allies horrible situation
I don't think it was like
but the Iranians were prepared to risk
that at least to a limited degree and
that's something that everyone in the
region now understands and the Israelis
understand it too okay so that's what
just happened fortunately that's that's
that's in the rearview mirror going
forward if this attack on Rafa goes
ahead either in the coming days because
there's no agreement on the hostages or
in the coming weeks because there is an
agreement agreement and then it's over
and and they haven't extended it um then
you're going to see uh the Iranians
continuing to provide all sorts of
support for
these so-called axis of resistance
members who the US considers to be
terrorist organizations they don't
recognize the right to Israel to exist
um they're going to be engaging in
strikes on shipping on warships and
Military targets of the US and the UK
and also against Israel and the Israelis
are likely to make strikes against Iran
as a consequence going forward so we
could very easily have a repeat of what
we just saw between Israel and Iran but
with that deterrence having failed we're
now at a new point of escalation more
dangerous than it was last time around
got to do more to show that you're
serious right also final point in case
that wasn't enough you've got over a
hundred th000 Israelis that have been
evacuated from the north of the country
evacuated because at the beginning of
the war they were concerned that
hasbalah was going to continue to send
missiles against them and make them
unsafe kill them so they're out but
there's a lot of pressure to get them
back in especially by September start of
the school year the only way you get
them back is if you either have a peace
plan that's agreed to which we don't
have or you've taken some actions
against he baah now most of the
conversations I've had with Israeli
leadership and even with some Centrist
members of outside of the Israeli
government is that action needs to be
taken against Hezbollah and if it's a
two front for war it's a two front War
it's one of the reasons they don't want
to have a lot of troops in Gaza most of
them pull back is because they have to
defend themselves against
Hezbollah so if the only way you get
your 100,000 citizens back to their
homes is you need to start striking
Hezbollah a more serious degree
Hezbollah is by far the most important
Ally of Iran in the region they're the
ones the Iranians would do much more to
defend so that's another proximate way
that we get from the war that we have
right now to something that could expand
and bring the Iranians in there's just a
lot of vectors of instability as we look
over the coming
months is there any genuinely credible
path to a two State solution or to peace
in the region anytime soon I I think
there's absolutely a credible path I
just don't know that it's anytime soon I
mean the credible path is you have a
Palestinian
Authority um that uh that appoints a
technocratic government for Gaza
Palestinians who have worked in
multilateral organizations and
understand what it means to actually
build um and economy those people exist
and there are certainly people that
could run a Palestinian Authority in
Gaza that are some of them are in the
Emirates in Egypt they're you know ones
in jail in Israel I mean you've got
there are possibilities right um and and
then the military the security would be
funded by the Gulf States maybe the US
with a lot of the physical security
provided probably by Egypt maybe a
little with Jordan maybe some others
right um maybe the UN would get involved
um that's feasible and there's been a
lot of conversations involving the Gulf
States around precisely that and some of
the conversations even in the Bahrain
peace conference that was the precursor
to the Abraham Accords under Trump
discussed that so I mean the these
Solutions exist but Helen over the last
seven months you know October 7th has
radic ized a generation of Israelis
against a solution like that not all of
them but a majority a majority a
two-state solution is no longer
something that anybody in Israel with a
big party wants to run on because it's
very unpopular in Israel uh particularly
among Israeli Jews Israeli Arabs
different story Israeli Jews strongly
oppose a two-state solution right now
then you've got the Palestinians and not
just in Gaza but in the occupied
territories of the West Bank where much
more land has been taken illegally over
the past months I mean Nan yahu
appointed a member of the far right to
be in charge of demolitions in the West
Bank they're taking more land more
Palestinians are fighting more
Palestinians are getting killed fighting
against settlers also fighting with the
IDF so we're farther from a two-state
solution even in the West Bank you know
and and then of course we have the
anamos from Palestinians who are
refugees living without full rights in
Jordan or in Lebanon um you know you put
all of that together um and and this is
an incredibly an incredibly difficult
path to get from here to there I mean
look the Saudis are holding out we will
normalize relations with Israel even as
we say you're committing a genocide
when's the last time you've had a
country say we're going to normalize
relations with you you're committing a
genocide but we're we're prepare to do
it just stop just stop and and let's
have a a defined path for a new state
for the Palestinians that you will
recognize and then we'll do it but and
the Americans have spent a lot of time
with the Saudis working on what that
plan would be and I think you could get
that through with a new defense paact
that that would pass Democrats and
Republicans in Congress but you have to
have Israeli normalization that means
you have to have have a Palestinian
State Helen there is much more support
for a Palestinian state today around the
world than there was when you and I were
talking about this last time when
October 7th happened it was in part the
result of years and years and years of
everybody talking about Palestinian need
for self autonomy and determination and
no one actually doing it um we now have
a lot more people recognizing talk is
cheap this is causing a real problem we
need a Palestinian state but I mean if
the people that are fighting the war um
have uh inclinations against each other
that
prude any such possibility you asked me
at the beginning why don't we have a
deal we don't have a deal because
there's not overlap between Hamas and
the war Cabinet why don't we have a
two-state solution pathway because the
Palestinian people people and the
Israeli people have gotten further apart
despite all of this pain because of all
of this
pain it is so painful there is so much
pain everywhere what's interesting too I
think is that the global response to
this in has been so divided itself there
is so much anger at Israel for what
people are seeing that is happening to
the Palestinians the death and the
destruction of Gaza and the pictures
that we see the support for Israel that
I think material realized after October
the 7th does in some ways seem to have
evaporated on a global kind of basis but
I'm I'm wondering if the rise of
anti-Semitism and the rise of the kind
of angry rhetoric that we see rolling
out and playing out across the world is
playing into any of the factors on the
ground and with the leadership who are
actually making the decisions what is
your response to that and how how are
you seeing this type of strife that is
happening around the world actually
impact anything that's happening on the
ground I mean of course um we're seeing
a rise in
anti-Semitism uh which frankly uh
predated October 7th those numbers were
going up in Europe and the United States
before that um and it's gotten worse and
I think a lot of that has been just the
polarization um and the misinformation
in society the extremism that is carried
algorithmically through social media I
mean things that you and I talk about
that's getting worse
and you know you mentioned that there
was a you know an outpouring of support
for Israel after October 7th and that's
true and we saw big demonstrations
massive in Germany in the United States
and elsewhere but there was still a lot
of
anti-Semitism and you know even in the
early days if you were an Israeli Jew um
you felt like there wasn't as much
support as you would think there was a
lot more Sympathy for the Hamas position
even as they just carried out the most
brutal atrocities we'd seen against Jews
since the Holocaust and you know Joe
Biden on Holocaust Memorial Day
Remembrance Day came out and you know
seven months after reminded people of
that that that you know the hostages are
still there these atrocities were still
committed the people that were
responsible for those atrocities that
carried them out that ordered them
they're
still commanding their forces and that's
clearly not acceptable right I mean the
Americans didn't consider that
acceptable after 911 no country that had
that brutality um against them would
consider that acceptable but but it's
also true um that more broadly um there
is uh Israel today is in a very isolated
Place almost the entire when Hamas
accepted the um the plan that was
offered by the Egyptians and the
cutteries and the Israelis said no
pretty much the entire world was in the
Hamas negotiating position and that
that's not good for Israel now has that
really made a difference to the people
engaging in the substance of this
conflict and potential resolution no and
has it led to any major attacks no not
yet uh I mean look the major terrorist
attack that we've seen since you and I
have spoken to each other an islamist
extremist attack was in Moscow uh for
for some tajiks that were um attached to
Isis k um and and the reason it was
mosow is because you know Putin is a big
friend and Ally of of Assad in Syria and
helped to take Isis out of the territory
that had been their caliphate now that
was a while ago but it takes a terrorist
organization a long time to organize a
spectacular attack you know everyone's
trying to get them they need to operate
under the radar with a lot of anonymity
and they don't have a lot of
resources a lot of them aren't very
capable so um I I I fear that the fact
that we haven't seen anything yet is
just because there hasn't been enough
time for those plans to manifest I mean
certainly uh us and Allied intelligence
believes
that we are going to see a generational
change in support for anti-israel and
anti-us islamist extremist Terror
because of what has transpired in the
last seven months on the ground in Gaza
I absolutely expect that I hope that the
amount of effort and resource that has
been put into combating that post 911 uh
will enable us to prevent it or at least
the vast majority of it it but you know
I don't know how lucky I
feel well that is depressing thank you
um so what are you watching for next
what should we be looking out for what
are the signals that we should be
looking for that something something new
and interesting and big is happening
that we should be paying attention to
well first of all what we talked about a
few of those in the region we want to
watch very carefully what comes out of
uh Burns Bill Burns's trip um to Israel
if there's going to be a short-term
agreement that's what it is um and and
or if more time is bought uh in terms of
a Rafa attack um full bore Rafa attack
um and and we want to watch how many how
much the Israelis move on the other
precursors humanitarian Aid and the
evacuations because then they've checked
the boxes they can go in right so it's
the American perspective it's the
Israeli perspective that's what we want
to watch assuming Rafa happens we want
to watch very very carefully um all of
the attacks uh from the houthis um and
because they've been expanding they just
threatened the Mediterranean for the
first time they also struck a ship in
the Indian Ocean for the first time
using ballistic missiles clearly that's
a problem they're attacking a lot of
American warships uh while the Iranian
supported uh proxies in Syria and Iraq
have stopped ever since the um the three
servicemen and women were killed in
Jordan a few months ago the Americans
brushed them back pretty hard and that
that stopped but but the houthis are
still hitting the Americans and if they
were to blow up a warship or kill a
bunch of American servicemen and women
um I think that would clearly lead to an
escalation finally in the region want to
watch the Hezbollah Northern Israel
front the Lebanon front and as we get
closer to the fall what are the Israelis
preparing to do on that don't fall
asleep on that but beyond the region
well the one thing we haven't talked
about is the US election because Biden
is in no man's land on this issue right
I mean you have a very L very few
Americans consider Gaza the issue
they're going to vote on but this makes
Biden look weak he has been telling his
top Ally in the Middle East you must let
humanitarian Aid in you must do more to
protect the civilians you must protect
journalist you must protect Aid workers
do not dare go into Rafa and I mean at
every you must support a two-state
solution and the Israeli Prime Minister
has told Biden the president of the most
powerful country in the world who is an
enormous supporter of his country has
told him talk to the hand talk to the
hand um and has even told him you know
on on Holocaust remembrance the eve of
Holocaust remembrance that the Israelis
have to only count on themselves can't
count on any other countries around the
world after everything the Americans did
to defend Israel with the Iranian
strikes despite the opposition of like
almost every country in the world to
what Israel is doing right now um and
the American vetos at the security
Council I mean everything the US is
doing to stand up to Israel and Natan
yahu at least I mean it may work in
Israel it certainly works for his
coalition but in the United States in an
election year it's insane and so Biden
is in damage control mode and this is
hurting him and this War I think that n
is still going to be there in November
and I fear the war is still going to be
going on and if it's still going on in
the summer and in the fall I mean the
students are going to go home they
graduate um and I mean I'm doing the
Colombia sea graduation ceremony on
their speaker on Monday that's going to
be a very different speech than I
expected when they originally asked me
to give it so I'm going to go and and do
do my best for the students um but
they'll all go away but then come August
we've got the convention in Chicago
which is fraught with Incredible
symbolism and a lot of anger and and
certainly will be a place where you know
professional agitators will show up to
make this look bad for the Dems um and
then after that I I mean if if if this
war is still going on when campus gets
back in place August
September you know the these
universities are going to be lit uh it's
going to be a serious serious problem
for Biden the kids are not all right um
and and in a in an election that is
tight with a small number of Swing
States and that counts on people coming
out and being supportive of the
incumbent Biden is in serious danger of
of of losing critical vot on this issue
obviously there's no quick fix for Biden
but what do you think he should do look
I think Biden should have um come out
very very strongly against nanyu and
with Israel on day one after October 7th
uh which by the way is the position of
the overwhelming majority of the Israeli
people you know I mean give direct
interviews to the jpost and harats um
and and say you know how the Israeli
Prime Minister failed his people right I
mean in other words really put your
thumb on the scale which would have you
know been it would have been painful but
it's BB would have done it to Biden
would have been happy to right um and
and and Biden's not that kind of a guy
but when you're playing against that
that sort of person that's what you need
to do and the United States doesn't just
support Israel it also supports Israeli
democracy which Natan yahu is an enemy
of right that that's what he needed to
do and he could have absolutely done
just as much to provide the support for
you know get get the is get the money to
the to to the Palestinians there's Aid
going in but also get Military Support
to the Israelis redouble the American
defense support so that the Israelis can
make sure that they can deal with
incoming missiles and Rockets you can do
both of those things at the same time I
find thing is I don't I think Biden
should have talked a lot more about the
American hostages in the early days and
I don't know I'm not privy to whether
the Americans seriously considered um a
raid but um I I'd like to believe from
the day one they were saying the
Israelis are in charge of the hostages
the Israelis are in charge of the
hostages you've got American citizens
that are hostages I don't know why the
Israel should be in charge of those
hostages I think that's either a joint
raid or the Americans go in and do it
themselves um but I I would have wanted
Biden on top of that and it's not that
Biden wasn't it's not that Biden refused
that a lot of people were coming to him
with that advice Biden's
81 and I just don't think he's willing
to be as decisive as assertive on these
issues as he was 10 15 20 years ago I'm
hearing a lot more of like yeah yeah
that sounds interesting let's think
about that as opposed to being decisive
on the issue and this is one where Biden
being too cautious too late too
slow um in in articulating a position
that he has gotten to he has now
actually you know suspended some of this
military aid but you you don't want to
wait until you know after the world
Central Kitchen debacle this was
happening before to lots of Aid workers
they just weren't Americans but it was
happening I mean they've been incensed
with what the Israeli Prime Minister has
been doing and the war cabinet for
months now but they've been very careful
I agree that your allies you should be
you should talk to privately differently
than you talk to publicly and and that
the US policy towards something that the
Israelis do when it's wrong is not
shouldn't be the same as when the
Russians do something that's wrong
because they're your ally I get that but
this is beyond the pale for the Israeli
pm and I think he thinks he can walk all
over the United States right now and
that's not a good position to be
in Ian it is always a pleasure to talk
to you despite the toughness of the
conversations I'm so glad your voice
held out thank you so much for being
here and we will see you again soon
let's hope for the best on these
negotiations uh let's hope that we at
least get some good news uh and and and
stop some of this fighting for a period
of time get some of this Aid in but
either way I'm sure you and I will be
talking again soon thanks you
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