'Wow': Dana Bash reacts to huge shift in Latino support for Trump in swing state

Summary

The latest polling data from Arizona and Nevada indicates a tightly contested race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with both candidates virtually tied in both states. Harris leads among Latino voters in Arizona by 18 points, while the support is nearly equal in Nevada. Economic concerns, especially rising living costs, significantly influence voter sentiment. Early voting trends show Trump gaining an edge in Nevada, but Democrats remain confident in their ground game. As Election Day approaches, these factors contribute to a highly competitive atmosphere in these pivotal battlegrounds.

Takeaways

• 😀 In Arizona, Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump by one point (48% to 47%), while in Nevada, Trump leads Harris by one point (48% to 47%), both results are within the margin of error.
• 😀 Harris has a significant advantage among Latino voters in Arizona, leading by 18 points (56% to 38%), but the race is nearly tied among Latino voters in Nevada (48% to 47%).
• 😀 The 2020 election exit polls showed Biden winning Latino voters in Nevada by 26 points, indicating potential concerns for Harris if similar trends emerge.
• 😀 There is a noticeable gender gap in voter support, with Harris winning women in Arizona by 16 points, while Trump leads among men by 14 points.
• 😀 Economic issues, particularly inflation and cost of living, are significant concerns for voters in both states, impacting their electoral decisions.
• 😀 Early voting trends reveal that Trump is performing well, winning the early vote in Nevada (52% to 46%), a shift from traditional Republican voting patterns.
• 😀 A majority of voters in Arizona support an abortion rights referendum, with 60% overall backing it, which could influence the voter base for Harris.
• 😀 Voter sentiment in Nevada shows a mix of nostalgia for the pre-COVID Trump economy, influencing some Latino voters' support despite their aversion to Trump's comments on immigration.
• 😀 Harris holds a lead on candidate characteristics such as honesty and trustworthiness but does not have overwhelming support in these categories.
• 😀 Both campaigns face challenges as they navigate economic dissatisfaction, with the Biden administration's recovery efforts being scrutinized by voters.

Q & A

What are the current polling numbers for Kamala Harris and Donald Trump in Arizona?

In Arizona, Kamala Harris has 48% and Donald Trump has 47%, giving Harris a slight lead of one percentage point.

How do the polling numbers for Harris and Trump compare in Nevada?

In Nevada, Donald Trump leads Kamala Harris by one percentage point, with Trump at 48% and Harris at 47%.

What is the significance of the margin of error in these polls?

The margin of error in these polls is 4.6%, meaning the close numbers suggest no clear leader and that the race is highly competitive.

How do Latino voters' preferences differ between Arizona and Nevada?

In Arizona, Harris leads among Latino voters by 18 points (56% to 38%), while in Nevada, the Latino vote is nearly tied at 48% for Trump and 47% for Harris.

What were Biden's exit poll results among Latino voters in 2020 in Arizona and Nevada?

In 2020, Biden won Latino voters by 24 points in Arizona and by 26 points in Nevada, indicating a significant shift in voter sentiment in the current polls.

What gender dynamics are observed in the polling results for both candidates?

Harris is winning women in Arizona by 16 points, while Trump leads men by 14 points. In Nevada, Harris leads women by five points, and Trump leads men by seven points.

What role do economic issues play in the current election campaign?

Economic issues, particularly inflation and the cost of living, are pivotal. Voters express a desire for change, recalling better economic conditions before the pandemic.

What percentage of voters support the abortion rights amendment in Arizona?

In Arizona, 60% of voters support the abortion rights amendment, with 93% of Democrats and 58% of independents in favor.

How does early voting behavior differ from traditional Republican voting patterns?

Trump is currently winning the early vote in Nevada, which is a new trend as Republicans typically prefer voting on Election Day.

What challenges does Harris face in her campaign according to the report?

Harris faces challenges related to economic concerns, a competitive race with Trump, and a significant shift in Latino voter support compared to 2020.