Sind ~7% Rendite am Aktienmarkt in Zukunft noch realistisch?

Summary

This video discusses the realistic expectations of achieving a 7% annual return on a diversified stock portfolio, examining historical performance through the MSCI World Index. While past averages suggest 7% returns are achievable, actual outcomes can vary widely based on the investment timeframe and market conditions. The impact of inflation is also addressed, highlighting the difference between nominal and real returns. Looking ahead, factors like declining economic growth, demographic shifts, and current stock valuations suggest that future returns may be lower than historical averages. A conservative approach to expected returns is recommended for better financial planning.

Takeaways

• 📈 The historical average return for a diversified stock portfolio is often cited as 7%, but this number varies significantly based on the time period considered.
• 📊 The MSCI World Index shows a historical average return of 7.7% per year without dividends, and 10.7% when including dividends.
• ⏳ Returns over shorter investment periods can vary widely, with the worst 20-year return being just 3% per year, while the best was 18.3%.
• 📉 Inflation must be considered when evaluating investment returns, distinguishing between nominal returns and real returns adjusted for inflation.
• 🔍 The average real return over the past 30 years was around 5.9%, which is below the often-quoted 7%.
• 🌍 Future economic growth is projected to slow, impacting potential stock market returns, with the World Bank estimating a decline in global growth rates.
• 👥 Demographic changes and productivity growth are key factors contributing to slower economic growth, particularly in developed nations.
• 💼 The current valuation of stocks, as measured by the Cape ratio, suggests that high valuations may lead to lower future returns, historically indicating returns below 7%.
• 🔄 The principle of mean reversion suggests that after periods of high valuations, stock returns may decline to historical averages.
• 💡 For personal investment planning, a more conservative expected return of around 5% may be prudent, considering inflation and future uncertainties.

Q & A

What is the historical average return for a diversified stock portfolio, and how has it changed over time?

The historical average return for a diversified stock portfolio has generally been around 7% per year, based on long-term historical data. However, this figure can vary significantly depending on the investment period. For instance, the MSCI World Index showed an average return of 7.7% per year without dividends, and 10.7% per year with dividends. The returns could be as high as 12.6% without dividends and 16.2% with dividends up until 1999, but the returns dropped to 6% without dividends and 9% with dividends in periods like 2008-2018.

Why are historical returns only partially useful for future investment planning?

Historical returns are not fully reliable for future investment planning because they depend on the specific time period in which you invest. For example, investing in periods of economic downturn or crisis (like the dot-com bubble burst or the COVID-19 crash) may result in significantly lower returns than average. Additionally, personal wealth accumulation is often planned over 20-30 years, and depending on the start and end period, returns can fluctuate widely.

How did the average returns differ when considering different 20-year investment periods?

When analyzing different 20-year periods, the returns varied significantly. The worst 20-year period was from March 2000 to March 2020, where the average annual return was only 3%, including dividends. Conversely, the best 20-year period was from April 1980 to April 2000, which had an average return of 18.3% per year, including dividends.

What impact does inflation have on the real return of investments?

Inflation reduces the purchasing power of money, so it is important to distinguish between nominal returns and real returns. Nominal returns represent the total return before accounting for inflation, while real returns are adjusted for inflation. Since inflation has averaged around 2% since 1991, real returns are typically lower than nominal returns, which means the actual purchasing power increase from your investment will be smaller than the nominal return suggests.

What is the difference between nominal and real returns, and how does inflation factor into them?

Nominal returns are the returns shown without accounting for inflation, while real returns adjust for inflation and reflect the actual growth in purchasing power. Inflation impacts real returns by reducing the effective return you earn, meaning that while nominal returns might be high, real returns might be lower due to rising prices.

What were the best and worst returns in 30-year investment periods?

For 30-year investment periods, the worst case scenario was a 6.9% average return per year, even with dividends, while the best case scenario had a return of 10.7% per year when adjusted for inflation. This highlights that longer investment horizons generally improve the likelihood of achieving higher returns.

How can future returns be predicted based on current economic indicators like GDP growth?

One approach to predicting future returns is by considering potential future economic growth. According to the World Bank, global economic growth is expected to slow down in the coming years, with projections of a potential growth rate of only 2.2% annually by 2030. This could signal lower stock market returns, as stock returns are often correlated with economic growth.

What is the CAPE ratio, and how does it influence future stock market returns?

The CAPE (Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings) ratio is a measure of stock market valuation that compares the price of stocks to the average earnings over the past 10 years. A high CAPE ratio suggests that stocks are overvalued, which typically predicts lower future returns, while a low CAPE ratio indicates that stocks may be undervalued, potentially leading to higher future returns.

How does the CAPE ratio currently suggest future returns for the US stock market?

Currently, the CAPE ratio for the US stock market is at 36, which historically has been associated with lower future returns of less than 7% in the following 20 years. Although the relationship between CAPE and future returns is not perfect, the high CAPE ratio suggests that future returns may be lower than in periods of lower valuations.

What conclusions can be drawn about future stock market returns based on historical data and current economic conditions?

Based on historical data, the 7% return for stock portfolios is realistic in the long run, particularly over periods of 30-40 years. However, current economic conditions such as lower global economic growth, high stock valuations, and other factors like demographic shifts and reduced productivity may indicate that future returns could be lower than the past. Investors should therefore adjust expectations, potentially aiming for more conservative returns like 5% per year, especially when factoring in inflation.