"Leaked Future of Gold & Silver is Scary" - Rafi Farber | Gold Silver Price
Summary
TLDRThe transcript discusses the looming possibility of a dollar collapse and the critical importance of holding gold and silver as financial safeguards. It distinguishes between investment demand, driven by anticipation of economic instability, and monetary demand, which surges during crises when people seek these metals for transactions. Historical patterns suggest that during monetary panics, the gold-to-silver ratio may drop dramatically. The speaker emphasizes that current inflation is a monetary issue, not merely a goods issue, urging preparedness for an impending economic crisis as central banks face pressure to reverse policies and print more money.
Takeaways
- 📈 Monetary demand for silver is expected to rise as a response to a potential dollar collapse, distinct from investment demand which is based on anticipating this scenario.
- 💰 Historical ratios, such as gold-to-silver falling to 15:1 during past monetary crises, suggest similar patterns may emerge again, indicating a fundamental shift in demand.
- ⚖️ The current inflationary environment is characterized by basic necessities increasing in price much faster than luxury items, pointing to deeper economic issues.
- 🏦 Central banks are likely to reverse their policies in the face of rising inflation and economic pressure, prompting a renewed interest in precious metals.
- 📉 The collapse of centralized silver stockpiles (like those in COMEX and LBMA) could occur if physical demand outpaces available supplies, leading to significant market disruption.
- 🪙 Gold and silver are emphasized as true forms of money, in contrast to baskets of commodities, which have historically failed as stable currencies.
- 🌍 The BRICS nations may eventually adopt gold and silver backing for their currencies, but skepticism remains regarding their fiscal responsibility.
- 📊 The speaker urges individuals to prepare for potential economic upheaval by securing gold and silver for survival in the aftermath of a dollar collapse.
- 🔄 Economic systems operate on exponential growth patterns, suggesting that current inflationary trends are unsustainable and will lead to a critical point.
- ⏳ While the timeline for a monetary crisis is uncertain, the speaker believes it is imminent given the current trajectory of financial systems.
Q & A
What is the speaker's main concern regarding the dollar?
-The speaker is primarily concerned about an imminent dollar collapse, which they believe could happen within the year.
How does the speaker differentiate between investment demand and monetary demand?
-Investment demand refers to buying silver in anticipation of future monetary value, while monetary demand is the urgent need for silver as a currency during a monetary crisis.
What historical events does the speaker reference to support their predictions?
-The speaker references historical instances in 1918 and 1980 when the gold-silver ratio fell to 15:1 during monetary crises.
What does the speaker suggest is causing the current inflation?
-The speaker argues that the current inflation is primarily a money problem, where basic necessities are rising faster than luxury items.
What role do central banks play in the anticipated financial crisis?
-The speaker expects that central banks will eventually reverse their policies and begin printing money again in response to economic pressures, which will drive demand for precious metals.
What potential market shift does the speaker predict?
-The speaker predicts a shift from paper silver markets to physical silver transactions, especially if supplies in registered markets run out.
What does the speaker say about the future role of gold and silver?
-The speaker asserts that gold and silver will regain their roles as money, arguing that any new currency must be backed by these precious metals to replace the dollar.
What is the speaker's view on the BRICS countries adopting gold and silver backing?
-The speaker believes BRICS countries will follow market trends rather than lead them in adopting gold and silver backing for their currencies.
What advice does the speaker give regarding preparation for the dollar collapse?
-The speaker advises individuals to prepare by acquiring enough gold and silver to survive the immediate aftermath of a dollar collapse.
How does the speaker describe the nature of inflationary systems?
-The speaker describes inflationary systems as exponential, indicating that they continually rise until reaching a critical point, leading to a rapid escalation.
Outlines
🪙 Preparing for Economic Collapse: The Role of Gold and Silver
This segment discusses the potential for a dollar collapse and the necessity of having gold and silver as a hedge against the immediate aftermath. The speaker distinguishes between investment demand—where individuals stack silver in anticipation of monetary issues—and monetary demand, which reflects a broader, urgent need for currency in times of crisis. Historical instances of the gold-to-silver ratio during monetary panics are noted, suggesting a pattern where silver becomes more sought after when people cannot afford gold. The speaker emphasizes that the current inflationary environment is indicative of a deeper financial crisis, where essential goods rise in price more rapidly than luxuries. There is a prediction of central banks eventually reversing their monetary policies, leading to increased pressure on precious metals as investors seek safety. The discussion includes the mechanics of futures markets and the challenges faced by banks in managing supplies of silver and gold, hinting at an inevitable shift toward physical assets as traditional financial systems falter.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Monetary Demand
💡Investment Demand
💡Dollar Collapse
💡Gold-to-Silver Ratio
💡Hyperinflation
💡Central Banks
💡Market Dynamics
💡BRICS Nations
💡Physical Markets
💡Exponential Inflation
Highlights
Be prepared for a potential dollar collapse; securing gold and silver is crucial for survival.
Distinguishes between monetary demand and investment demand for silver.
Monetary demand arises when people seek silver for exchange, while investment demand reflects anticipation of monetary collapse.
Historical gold-to-silver ratios during monetary panics have fallen to 15:1, indicating a shift towards silver.
The current inflationary environment is driven by rising prices of basic necessities, not just luxury goods.
Financial crises can unfold rapidly, with systemic weaknesses becoming apparent as the economy contracts.
Central banks are likely to reverse tightening policies, increasing the pressure on precious metals.
Previous delivery issues in silver markets highlight the vulnerability of registered supplies.
The COMEX may alter rules during crises, but such changes could lead to a flight to physical silver markets.
Gold and silver should be recognized as money, whereas baskets of commodities are not viable alternatives.
Emerging currencies need to be gold and silver backed to effectively replace the dollar.
The speaker doubts the fiscal responsibility of BRICS nations in establishing a new currency system.
Public demand for physical assets will surge as the dollar's value declines, leading to a decentralized market for commodities.
Inflationary systems follow exponential trends, inevitably leading to a significant collapse.
Historically, central banks have reversed course when faced with economic pressure, suggesting this trend will continue.
The urgency for individuals to secure precious metals is emphasized as a hedge against economic instability.
Transcripts
be prepared for it to happen this year
have enough gold and silver it wherever
you need it to survive the immediate
aftermath of a dollar collapse it could
happen any time it could definitely
happen this year I focus on the the
monetary philosophical aspect of these
markets I mean I understand investment
demand I understand industrial demand
but monetary demand is a completely
different thing which we haven't seen
yet I bucate between investment demand
and monetary demand because investment
demand is what silver stackers do it's
like we stack silver why because we know
that something big is going to happen
and whether we realize it or not what
that big thing is is that an explosion
of actual monetary demand and what is
monetary Demand versus investment demand
investment demand is when you when you
stack silver in anticipation of monetary
demand because you expect the monetary
system to break down and monetary demand
is different from industrial demand
because everyone demands a money
everyone needs money for something
otherwise there's no division of labor
so that's a much more fundamental thing
when we look at the Futures markets of
silver priced whether it's on the lbma
or the comx or whatever the contract is
what's the price of what we're looking
at we're looking at the price of
industrial demand and some investment
demand but we're not looking at the
price of monetary demand because
monetary demand is when everybody wants
it to exchange against other Goods uh
and when that happens that's when that's
when gold to Silver Falls to like 15 to1
as it does in every monetary panic in
history that's what always happens why
because most people can't afford gold so
they go to Silver which is already
starting to happen but it has a lot more
more to fall it fell to 15 to1 in 1918
it fell to 15 to1 in 1980 it's going to
fall to 15 to1 again and that's when we
are in a full-blown monetary crisis what
I keep saying everyone sees prices going
up everywhere in the world it's not a
Goods problem it's a money problem it's
a money problem because we see basic
necessities going up faster than any
other prices so everyone's focus on you
know the broad inflation numbers they
don't matter they do not matter because
in any hyperinflationary economy you
have basic necessities going up really
really fast and luxury items either not
going up at all or going up much slower
than basic necessities so in this kind
of environment we're seeing like the the
developing of a financial crisis already
coming into fruition we're seeing like
what is it the tide comes in and you
realize who's naked so the tide is
starting to come in and the people on
the edges are you know they're already
naked whether it's um uh the UK pension
plans or FTX you know some kind of
crypto exchange I mean these things are
going to start happening week in week
out now and faster and faster and
eventually the the central banks are
going to have to reverse and when they
reverse in the environment of inflation
whether it's 8% 7% 6% 5% they're going
to reverse and then everyone's going to
attack the precious metals because
that's what humans do that's what's
going to happen exactly when the central
banks break and start uh printing again
I don't know but they're going to
because there's going to be humongous
pressure to do so so when that happens I
think silver gets drained from all the
the centralized stock piles comx lbma um
whatever silver fund happens to be
holding silver unallocated in the Perth
Mint or Switzerland or whatever it's all
the same stuff it's just different piles
they're all going to be attacked at the
same time and you can use any of them as
a proxy for any of the other ones so
it's it's the same game over and over
again when they run out they run out and
we win because we're stacking and we're
not selling um well we saw it once in
July of 2020 when um I think the the
number of deliveries was higher than the
amount of registered silver available
and so I think JP Morgan rushed like it
was like 4 5 million ounces from its
eligible pile into the registered I
don't know exactly why they did that
because I think delivery was going into
the comic not out at that that time but
it was um at least on net so it was
confusing what was happening but at
least we see the mechanism of what would
happen if registered supplies go to zero
you'd see some bank or other with a
whole bunch of of eligible supplies put
them into registered category because
it's happened before um but again the
rule changes in the comics in 1980 they
did them because they could the
situation there was um we were already
basically back on a gold and silver
standard in 1980 at least in terms of
the fed's balance sheet because the
valuation of gold at the time was enough
to back all of the fed's liabilities on
its balance sheet by over 100% that is
the definition of a gold standard and
the gold silver ratio was about 15 to1
which is the general gold silver
standard that we've had for hundreds of
years before that so 1980 brought us
back on a gold and silver standard so
since we were already there the comx had
the ability to mess around with the
rules but if they do that in this
environment where the FED has absolutely
no ability to raise interest rates
anywhere near 20% forget it it's
impossible if they change the rules in
this environment then all the demand
would just flood into the physical
markets and everyone would just ignore
the comx and who cares what they say
doesn't matter they won't have the power
because instead of dollars trading for
paper silver on a Futures exchange you'd
just have that Futures exchange ignored
completely and physical silver would be
exchanged for goods on some kind of
decentralized panic you know segmented
Market where people would be trading
physical coins or some kind of reliable
backing of a certificate for them for
actual goods and services which would be
the endgame that we're all looking at
where gold and silver become money again
literally we've never seen in the
history of the world a currency backed
by a basket of Commodities that's like a
it's a nice if people try to spin these
uh intellectual um theories on money
that we've never seen before I don't
think are possible look gold and silver
are money baskets of Commodities are not
money every time that some country comes
up with a some kind of scheme to use
whether it's a real estate or tobacco or
whatever as money it doesn't last long
gold and silver are money and that's it
and as for the formation of bricks into
some kind of a new currency it would
have to be gold and silver backed in
order to supplant the dollar um which is
what what they're going to have to do
but if they do that they're going to
have to become fiscally responsible you
know Russia has the ability to do that
Brazil
and uh you know India I don't see any
fiscal responsibility in those countries
so much uh maybe they can change I don't
see a Changing of the Guard by bricks
countries uniting and becoming
responsible and changing the world I see
the market going one way and then bricks
following the market by inertia and
force and then taking credit for it so
the public is going to lead the market
public in the streets trying to buy food
in whatever City they are in the world
when it comes down to it they're backed
by the dollar right now so when that
falls they're going to have to go to
Gold and Silver and then the bricks will
say okay we're going to gold and silver
because that's where the Market's going
and they have no choice they're not
going to create a market they're going
to follow the public and then take
credit for it look in terms of timing
questions this is what I always say be
prepared for it to happen this year have
enough gold and silver it wherever you
need it to survive the immediate
aftermath of a dollar collapse it could
happen any time it could definitely
happen this year is it definitely going
to happen this year nothing is definite
and there there have been a lot of
people in this industry a lot longer
than I have been who've been in for 30
40 years and haven't seen the collapse
that we've all been looking at all been
waiting for but that said look all
inflationary systems are exponential
exponential all of them and they all
head in One Direction Only One Direction
they just go up and up and up until they
go vertical and we're on the vertical
stick of that I mean they could
theoretically stop and then just watch
the pyramid fall and watch all their
Banker friends just go bankrupt it's
theoretically possible they would do
that they're too greedy and stupid to do
that they're not going to do that when
you're up against evil you can just be
sure that evil is going to continue
until its logical conclusion which is
self Annihilation any kind of evil does
that so that's what's going to happen
here and right now the FED is trying to
come off the exponential curve by
stopping the printing and we see the
money supply falling that's going to
last until it doesn't anymore every time
that's happen they've had to reverse is
it going to change this time is it going
to be the first time in history that the
FED doesn't have to reverse after
shopping printing no it's not going to
be the first time in history it
everything that's happened before is
going to happen again just on
supercharge and we're just waiting for
that turn and uh exactly when it's going
to happen we don't know but it's going
to happen soon
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