Why Countries Natural Increase Rates Grow/Shrink [AP Human Geography Unit 2 Topic 4] (2.4)
Summary
TLDRThis video from the Mr. Sin channel explores population dynamics, specifically covering key concepts like crude birth and death rates (CBR and CDR), natural increase rate (NIR), infant mortality rate (IMR), and total fertility rate (TFR). It highlights how factors such as healthcare, education, government policies, and economic conditions influence population growth. The video also touches on environmental impacts and the importance of understanding doubling time for effective planning. Viewers are introduced to essential terminology and concepts to prepare for deeper discussions in future lessons, including the demographic and epidemiological transition models.
Takeaways
- 📊 **Crude Birth Rate (CBR)**: The number of live births per year per thousand people.
- 💀 **Crude Death Rate (CDR)**: The number of deaths per year per thousand people.
- 🌱 **Natural Increase Rate (NIR)**: The difference between CBR and CDR, indicating population growth or decline.
- 👨👩👧👦 **Replacement Rate**: A Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 is needed for a population to replace itself without immigration.
- 📉 **Total Fertility Rate (TFR)**: Average number of children per woman, reflecting family sizes.
- 👶 **Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)**: Number of deaths of children under one per thousand live births.
- 🏛️ **Social Factors**: Access to wealth and healthcare can lower IMR and CDR, affecting population dynamics.
- 🏫 **Education**: Greater educational opportunities can lead to lower TFR and smaller family sizes.
- 🏦 **Political Policies**: Governments can influence population growth through pro-natalist and anti-natalist policies.
- 🌾 **Economic Factors**: Agricultural societies tend to have larger families due to the need for farm labor.
- 🌍 **Environmental Factors**: Resource availability and environmental conditions can impact family planning decisions.
Q & A
What is the Crude Birth Rate (CBR) and how is it calculated?
-The Crude Birth Rate (CBR) measures how many people are born in a given year. It is calculated by taking the number of live births in a year and dividing it by 1,000 people.
What is the Crude Death Rate (CDR) and how is it calculated?
-The Crude Death Rate (CDR) measures how many people die in a given year. It is calculated by taking the number of deaths in a year and dividing it by 1,000 people.
How is the Natural Increase Rate (NIR) or Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) determined?
-The Natural Increase Rate (NIR) or Rate of Natural Increase (RNI) is calculated by subtracting the Crude Death Rate (CDR) from the Crude Birth Rate (CBR). A positive number indicates population growth, while a negative number indicates population decline.
What factors are excluded when calculating the Natural Increase Rate (NIR)?
-The NIR only considers natural births and deaths. It excludes factors like immigration, emigration, or migration, which can affect overall population growth.
What are some social factors that influence a country's natural birth rate?
-Social factors like access to healthcare, education, and employment opportunities can influence natural birth rates. For example, better healthcare can lower infant mortality, while increased education and job opportunities for women often result in smaller family sizes.
What is the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) and how is it calculated?
-The Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) measures how many children die before reaching the age of one. It is calculated by taking the number of deaths of children under one year of age and dividing it by 1,000 live births.
What is the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) and why is it significant?
-The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime. It is significant because it indicates family sizes and helps predict population growth. A TFR below 2.1 indicates that the population is not replacing itself.
What is the replacement rate and why is it important?
-The replacement rate is the TFR needed for a population to maintain its current size, typically 2.1. If a country's TFR falls below this rate, its population will begin to shrink unless supplemented by immigration.
How do economic factors impact population growth?
-Economic factors such as the shift from subsistence agriculture to urbanization can reduce family sizes. In agricultural economies, larger families are needed for farm labor, while in urbanized areas, children become more costly and less economically beneficial.
What is doubling time, and why is it important for societies to monitor?
-Doubling time refers to the number of years it takes for a population to double in size. Monitoring this is important because it helps governments and societies plan for future needs, such as infrastructure, resources, and services.
Outlines
📊 Introduction to Population Dynamics and Key Metrics
In this section, the video introduces population dynamics, specifically focusing on concepts like crude birth rate (CBR), crude death rate (CDR), and natural increase rate (NIR). The CBR refers to the number of live births per 1,000 people in a given year, while the CDR looks at deaths per 1,000 people. The NIR is the difference between the CBR and CDR, showing whether a population is growing or shrinking. It is emphasized that NIR only accounts for natural births, excluding immigration or migration. Even if a country has a negative NIR, its population could still grow through immigration.
📉 Socioeconomic Factors Influencing Population Growth
Here, the focus shifts to the various socioeconomic factors that influence natural birth rates. These include healthcare advancements, education, and workforce participation, particularly among women. As societies become wealthier and provide better healthcare, infant mortality rates (IMR) and crude death rates (CDR) tend to decline. With higher education and job opportunities, total fertility rates (TFR) also decrease as families become smaller. The IMR is defined as the number of children who die before their first birthday per 1,000 live births. Higher IMR often correlates with higher TFR, as families expect some children to die.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Crude Birth Rate (CBR)
💡Crude Death Rate (CDR)
💡Natural Increase Rate (NIR)
💡Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)
💡Total Fertility Rate (TFR)
💡Replacement Rate
💡Pro-natalist Policies
💡Anti-natalist Policies
💡Doubling Time
💡Demographic Transition Model
Highlights
Introduction to population dynamics and review of previous topic, including population pyramids, sex ratios, and dependency ratios.
Explanation of crude birth rate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR), including definitions and calculations.
Definition of natural increase rate (NIR) and how to calculate it using CBR and CDR, with emphasis on its exclusion of migration.
Impact of social factors such as wealth, healthcare access, and education on population growth, leading to reduced infant mortality rates and smaller family sizes.
Introduction to infant mortality rate (IMR) and total fertility rate (TFR), including their definitions and significance in understanding family size trends.
Correlation between high IMR and high TFR, with an explanation of why families in high-IMR societies often have more children.
Explanation of the replacement rate (2.1) and its importance in maintaining population stability.
Discussion on pro-natalist and anti-natalist government policies and their role in influencing population growth.
Political stability's influence on birth rates, highlighting how uncertainty and safety concerns impact family planning.
Economic factors affecting population growth, particularly the difference between agricultural economies and urbanized societies in terms of family size.
Influence of urbanization on family size, with children becoming more of an economic burden in cities compared to rural areas.
Environmental factors influencing family size, including subsistence agriculture, desertification, and resource depletion.
Impact of environmental factors on family planning within cities, such as school districts, available resources, and neighborhood safety.
Introduction to doubling time and its importance for societies in understanding and planning for population growth.
Preview of the next video covering the demographic transition model and the epidemiological transition model, emphasizing their significance in understanding population dynamics.
Transcripts
hey there geographers and welcome back
to the mr sin channel today we're going
to be going into
topic 4 of unit 2. we're going to be
looking at population dynamics now
last time we talked about 2.3 where we
looked at population pyramids
sex ratios dependency ratios and
population composition in general
and now we're going to be expanding on a
lot of those concepts and ideas now
before we go into all the different
reasons why we see natural bursts go up
or down we have to talk about some
terminology
the first term you're going to have to
know is crude birth rate also known as
the cbr
what this is looking at just how many
people are born in a given year
to find it what we're going to do is
take the amount of live births in a year
and divide it by a thousand people we
also have our crude death rate or cdr
and you can probably guess it deals with
how many people are dying in a year
and just like our cbr we're going to
calculate it pretty similar
we're going to take the amount of people
who died in a given year and divide it
by a thousand people next we have our
natural increase rate or
nir now sometimes this will also be
shown to you as
rni which would stand for rate of
natural increase
now what we're talking about here is
essentially how much is society growing
to find this we're going to take our cbr
and we're going to minus our cdr
if this is a positive number it shows
that our society is growing
if it is a negative number it shows our
population is actually shrinking now i
want to highlight that the nir is only
looking at natural birth so we're not
factoring in
immigration emigration or migration
we're only looking at the natural births
that are occurring
in the country so that's important to
note because if a country has a negative
nir
they still overall could be growing as a
population
if they have a lot of immigrants coming
into the country the real question is
now
why do some countries see their natural
births go up while
others see their natural births go down
to answer this question we could look at
social factors we could look at how
society develops and as they gain more
access to wealth
they're able to get better health care
they're able to have more access to
medicine and treatments that can lower
a society's imr and also its cdr or we
could look at education as societies
give more opportunities for both men and
women
more people gain access to higher paying
jobs and can participate
more in society this would lower the tfr
as now women are actually participating
in the workforce
and have less time to have kids so our
family sizes start to decrease
and our population growth rate goes down
with it so i just mentioned the imr and
tfr and these are important concepts to
understand
the imr is the infant mortality rate and
it's a sad metric
it looks at the amount of children who
die before they get past the age of one
to find this what we would do is take
the amount of deaths of children under
one
and divide it by a thousand live births
the tfr on the other hand stands for our
total fertility rate here we're taking
the average amount of babies and
dividing it by women this shows us
on average how many kids are women
having
and that also shows us our family sizes
when this number is going down that
means our family sizes are decreasing
when the number's higher we're having
larger families societies that have a
high imr
oftentimes are going to have a higher
tfr this is because women are going to
be having more children
expecting some of them to die so they'll
have a family of eight and maybe only
expect
six to unfortunately live this impacts
population growth significantly
especially as we start to see society
develop
but we're going to go into that more in
our next video when we talk about the
demographic transition model now before
we go back into the other reasons why we
see population growth change i want to
highlight one more thing with our total
fertility rate
and that's the replacement rate for
society actually keep its current
population
we have to have a tfr of 2.1 this is the
replacement rate
if we are seeing our tfr drop below
there we're actually going to see our
population
decrease we're not having enough
children to be able to make up for our
current population
if we're above 2.1 well we're going to
start to see some population grow
politically we can look at how the
government changes population growth by
implementing pro-natalist and
anti-natalist policies
these are policies we'll cover in depth
in 2.7 but
these policies have a big influence some
governments actually will pay for all
the child care
they'll offer tax incentives to families
for having kids
while others will put laws in place to
prevent larger families
or use propaganda to manipulate people
to try and convince them to
decrease their family sizes all of these
can change the growth rate of a society
another political factor that could
impact population growth could actually
be just stability
if you're living in an area where you
don't feel safe if you feel like there's
a lot of uncertainty
you're less likely to have more children
because you won't feel like it's a good
environment to be able to bring up kids
in
when looking at economics we can see a
bunch of different factors as well that
influence our population growth
for example societies that are
developing and have more of an
agricultural based economy
where we see a lot of people working in
subsistence agriculture
are going to have larger family sizes
that's because the families need help on
the farm and so they have larger
families to be able to support it
however as we see countries develop and
we see more people
move to the cities and we have more
urbanization occur well we start to see
family sizes go down
children are no longer as economically
advantageous and they actually cost a
lot of money in the city
so we start to see changes the family
size gets smaller you don't need to have
a large family to help you out as much
and now too just living in the city has
other costs and you're probably also now
focused on other careers
so you have less time for larger
families lastly we could talk about
environmental factors for example
some societies are still in subsistence
agriculture and they rely
heavily on the land around them to be
able to feed themselves and to be able
to provide for their family
and they have those larger families like
we already talked about to be able to
help around the farm well if we're
starting to see more desertification and
more depletion of the natural resources
that's going to put more of a strain and
burden on the farmers and the people
living in these societies to get enough
food
so sometimes we start to see families
actually having more kids so they have
more help around the home
to be able to get food and to be able to
support the family
the issue there is it creates a cycle
then where now we're taking more out of
the land
and depleting the resources at a faster
rate but we could also look at too
just the environment within a
neighborhood or a city families will
look around them before having kids
do i have the right school district for
my child do i have resources to support
them is there enough room for them to go
outside and play
all of these things would get factored
in for the decision of families and it
all impacts our population growth now we
only just started to scratch the surface
on for all the different reasons why
population growth changes
and before we wrap this up i want to
make sure you understand one more
concept and that's
doubling time doubling time is the
amount of time it would take for a
population to double
this is important for societies to focus
on because if they don't understand
what's happening with their population
growth
they're not going to be able to plan
accordingly and they're going to run
into some pretty big
issues countries need to study what's
happening with the demographics in their
country
so they can better make decisions on how
to address the needs and wants of their
people so that about does it for 2.4 now
next time we're going into 2.5 and
i can't stress this enough it's going to
be a huge video now hopefully not in
length but in
content we're going to be going into the
demographic transition model
and the epidemiological transition model
these are
so important for this unit and this
entire class so make sure you subscribe
so you get notified when that video goes
live
also if you need help with reviewing any
of these concepts make sure you check
out the ultimate review packet
it'll help you get an a in your class
and a five on that national exam
all right that's all the time we have
for today i'm mr sin
and until next time geographers i'll see
you online
[Music]
you
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