How is the war going? — September 2024
Summary
TLDRThe video discusses the frontline situation between Ukraine and Russia, focusing on Kursk and the Donetsk region. It notes a slowdown in Ukrainian advances in Kursk but anticipates further territorial gains. The frontline in Ukraine is largely stable except for progress by Russia towards Pokhrovsk. The video also highlights the strategic importance of ongoing air campaigns by both sides, with Ukraine successfully striking Russian infrastructure despite a Russian push in Donetsk. It emphasizes the need to view current events within the broader context of the war.
Takeaways
- 🗺️ The frontline situation in Ukraine and Russia has been discussed, focusing on Kursk and the Donetsk region.
- 🔍 The Ukrainian incursion into Kursk has slowed down, but they have taken significant territory.
- 🚧 The area south of the River Sejm is expected to be taken by Ukraine soon due to destroyed bridges.
- 📉 The frontline inside Ukraine has mostly stabilized, except for the Donetsk region where Russia is making progress.
- 🏭 Russia's progress towards the city of Pokhrovsk is a concern, with the city potentially facing a long and difficult battle.
- 🤔 There is debate in Ukraine about military strategy, including the use of resources in Kursk versus Donetsk.
- 🏹 Russia's main offensive is in Donetsk, and it's expected that they would make progress there.
- 🏙️ Urban combat in cities like Pokhrovsk will significantly slow down Russia's advance.
- 💥 Even if Russia occupies the entire Donetsk region, it does not mean they win the war; the conflict would continue.
- 🔥 Both sides are conducting strategic air campaigns, with Ukraine showing success in hitting Russian air bases and oil facilities.
Q & A
What is the current frontline situation in Kursk?
-The Ukrainians have taken a significant chunk of territory inside Russia in Kursk, but the expansion has slowed down over the last week, leading to a more static situation at the frontline.
What is the strategic importance of the area south of the River Sejm?
-The area south of the River Sejm is strategically important because it is essentially walled off with Ukraine to the south, east, and west, and the destruction of bridges by Ukraine is making it difficult for Russia to establish a foothold.
How has the frontline situation inside Ukraine stabilized?
-The frontline inside Ukraine has mostly stabilized, with the exception of the Donetsk region where Russia is making progress, particularly toward the city of Pokhrovsk.
Why is Russia not making significant progress in most areas along the frontline?
-Russia has taken soldiers from parts of the frontline, especially in the southern sector, and moved them to Kursk to control the situation there. Additionally, Russia may be prioritizing resources for focused efforts rather than spreading them thinly.
What is the expected timeline for Russian forces to reach the city of Pokhrovsk?
-Given the progress made in August, it is expected that during September, Russian forces will reach the city of Pokhrovsk, marking the beginning of the battle for the city.
What is the significance of the discussion in Ukraine regarding the military commanders' decisions in the Donetsk region?
-The discussion in Ukraine is significant because it revolves around whether military commanders have made mistakes in their strategy, such as not building adequate defensive lines, and whether resources should have been allocated differently.
Why is it not surprising that Russia is making progress in Donetsk?
-It is not surprising because Donetsk is the main axis of the Russian summer offensive where they are concentrating their forces and firepower.
How will the fighting in Donetsk change when it moves from open territory to urban combat?
-The fighting will slow down significantly when it moves to urban combat within city limits, as urban warfare is typically more challenging and time-consuming.
What is the importance of the long-range air campaigns conducted by both sides?
-Long-range air campaigns are playing a crucial role, with Russia targeting Ukrainian infrastructure and Ukraine successfully striking Russian air bases and oil facilities.
What are the implications of Ukraine's air campaign against Russia?
-Ukraine's air campaign is significant as it demonstrates their capability to strike deep into Russia, causing potential long-term problems for Russia due to their shortage of air defense systems.
What does the speaker suggest regarding Western countries providing Ukraine with weapons for deep strikes into Russia?
-The speaker suggests that it would be a good idea for Western countries to allow Ukraine to use Western weapons for deep strikes into Russia, as it would make a significant difference.
Outlines
🌏 Frontline Situation Overview
The video discusses the frontline situation between Ukraine and Russia, focusing on Kursk and the Donetsk region. It highlights a slowdown in Ukrainian advances in Kursk after significant territorial gains. The Ukrainians have effectively cut off a region by controlling the east and west while destroying Russian bridges over the River Sejm. The discussion suggests Ukraine may capture the entire area south of the river. The frontline in Ukraine is mostly stable except for the Donetsk region where Russia is making progress, particularly towards the city of Pokhrovsk. The video emphasizes the need to maintain perspective on the war's overall situation amidst various reports.
🏰 Donetsk Defensive Operations
This section delves into the Russian summer offensive's main axis in Donetsk, where Russia is concentrating forces and firepower. The video explains that while Ukraine is losing territory in defense, this is a normal part of defensive operations aimed at maximizing enemy losses rather than holding every kilometer of land. The discussion anticipates a slowdown in Russian advances once urban combat begins in cities like Pakrovsk, which may take months or even a year to fully capture. The video also points out that even if Russia occupies the entire Donetsk region, it does not equate to winning the war, as the conflict would simply shift to a new frontline. The importance of not overreacting to current events and understanding the broader military strategy is emphasized.
💥 Long-Range Air Campaigns
The final paragraph discusses the strategic importance of long-range air campaigns conducted by both Ukraine and Russia. It notes Russia's recent success in airstrikes targeting Ukrainian power infrastructure, which could become a significant issue as winter approaches. Conversely, Ukraine has been successful in striking Russian air bases and oil facilities using newly developed drones and cruise missiles. The video suggests that allowing Ukraine to use Western weapons for deep strikes into Russia could be beneficial. It highlights Ukraine's growing capability for such strikes due to technological advancements and production capabilities, as well as Russia's deficiency in air defense systems, which乌克兰 has been targeting. The paragraph concludes by emphasizing the increasing impact of Ukrainian air campaigns on Russia and the dynamic nature of this aspect of the conflict.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Kursk region
💡Frontline
💡Donetsk region
💡Strategic air campaign
💡River Sejm
💡Pontoon bridges
💡Pokhrovsk
💡Defensive operations
💡Urban combat
💡Long-range air campaigns
Highlights
Overview of the frontline situation in Ukraine and Russia
Discussion on the situation in Kursk and the frontline in Ukraine, specifically the Donetsk region
Mention of the strategic air campaign by both sides
Effort to keep the big picture for people amidst the war debate
Use of maps from deepstatemap.live for visual aid
Ukrainian incursion into Kursk region nearing one month mark
Slowing down of Ukrainian expansion in Kursk region
Ukrainian control over significant areas in Kursk
Destruction of bridges across the River Sejm by Ukraine
Expectation of Ukraine taking the area south of the River Sejm
Frontline in Ukraine has mostly stabilized except for significant exception
Russian movement of soldiers from the southern sector to Kursk
Russian focus on creating results in one area instead of spreading resources
Russian progress toward the city of Pokhrovsk in Donetsk region
Discussion in Ukraine about the reasons for the situation in Donetsk
Reflections on what's going on in Donetsk
Donetsk as the main axis of the Russian summer offensive
Fighting in Donetsk taking place in open territory
Potential destruction of Pakrovsk city and the time it might take for Russia to take it
Implications of Russia occupying the entire Donetsk region on the war
Long-range air campaigns playing an important role
Russian airstrikes on Ukraine's power infrastructure
Ukrainian air campaign against Russia including new types of drones and cruise missiles
Debate on whether western countries should allow Ukraine to use western weapons for deep strikes into Russia
Ukrainian capability to conduct strikes into Russia and the impact on Russians
Russian shortage of air defense systems and its consequences
Expectation of Ukrainian airstrikes having a bigger impact in Russia over time
Transcripts
In this video, I want to give an overview of the
frontline situation in Ukraine and Russia, I guess.
I will talk about the situation in Kursk, then
about the frontline in Ukraine, and more specifically
about the Donetsk region.
And then I'm also going to talk a bit about the strategic air campaign
that both sides have going on right now.
And I will try to keep it pretty short because I think
when we follow the debate about the war, I think the biggest challenge is actually right now to
keep the big picture for people.
So there are so many stories about separate elements in the war,
and it can be hard to put it all together and
decide what's important and what's less important.
So let's talk about it.
As usual, I'm using maps from deepstatemap.live.
And if we start in the Kursk region, then we're approaching the one month mark
since the Ukrainians launched the incursion.
And in that time, they've taken quite a significant chunk of territory inside Russia.
It has been slowing down over the last week.
The expansion has started to slow down and we are beginning to see a more static situation when we
look at the frontline in the area.
But if we look at the map, then the most significant area under
Ukrainian control is obviously this one here to
the east because it's the biggest area.
But the Ukrainians have also taken an area over here to
the west.
And the interesting thing about this is this area here in between, because it's essentially
walled off with Ukraine to the south.
And then the Ukrainians also control both the east and the west.
And to the north, there is a river called the River Sejm.
And Ukraine has destroyed all the bridges across this river.
The Russians keep up setting new pontoon bridges, but the Ukrainians also keep destroying them.
So I think it's fair to assume that over the coming weeks, then Ukraine
will probably take this whole area south of the same river.
So the Ukrainian expansion in the Kursk region has definitely slowed down since the
first couple of weeks.
But there is still this area that we should probably expect that the Ukrainians
will take in the coming time.
If we move on to the frontline inside Ukraine, then the big picture
is that the frontline has stabilized in most areas
with a very significant exception.
But really in most areas along the frontline, the Russians are
not making significant progress at this time.
And there can be several reasons for this.
Russia has taken soldiers from parts of the frontline, especially in the southern sector in the
Zabodisha region, and they've moved them to Kursk
to try to get the situation there under control.
So that's definitely one factor that is contributing to this.
But another explanation
might also be that Russia has just prioritized to use their resources to create results
in this one area where they have the main effort instead of sort of sprinkling resources
around across many places.
And that would actually be a smart decision because it is one of the weaknesses
that the Russians have had in the war
until now, that they have had a hard time focusing
their resources and that they have just spent a
lot of resources in many places.
But either way,
what we're seeing is that Russia is not making
progress in most places, but that they are in the
Donetsk region, they are making progress and especially toward the city of Pokhrovsk.
If we look at the map, then over the month of August, the Russians have been able to progress
about 20 kilometers toward the city.
We should probably expect that during the month of September,
the Russian forces will reach the city and the battle for Pokhrovsk will begin.
And that is absolutely not good news for the Ukrainians.
And there is now a discussion in Ukraine about
what are the reasons for this, because when the situation is that it has stabilized pretty much
everywhere else in Ukraine on the front line, and they're having a lot of success in the Kursk
region, then of course it jumps in the eyes that
you have this one area where things are not going
well, where things are going in the wrong direction, and that it's also happening at a
pace that it's maybe not quick.
I think that would be a wrong way to describe it, but it is definitely significant.
So there is a discussion about whether the military commanders in this area have made
mistakes, if they don't understand the situation,
if they have not taken the necessary steps to build
trenches and prepare defense lines and those sorts of things.
And there's also been a debate
about whether it was a mistake for the Ukrainians to use so many resources in the Kursk region
instead of putting more resources into trying to stabilize this one front line in Donetsk.
I think it's difficult to have very strong opinions about this, just based on the information
that we have at this point.
So it's possible that mistakes were made and that the situation could
have been better.
But I also think it's a mistake to get caught up in these discussions if you want
to see the big picture.
So what I want to do instead is to offer a few reflections about what's going on in Donetsk.
The first thing I'll say is that this is the main axis of the Russian summer offensive.
And this is where they are concentrating their forces and where they are channeling most of
the available firepower.
So if you're up against that, then you would usually expect to be losing territory.
That is a part of how you conduct defensive operations.
So when you follow the news coverage of what's going on,
then you could get the impression that the situation is very dramatic
and that it's a huge problem that the Ukrainians have not been able to bring the whole
Russian offensive to complete halt in all sectors of
the front line.
But I think that's a misunderstanding
of what defensive operations actually look like.
Like it is not the goal to hold every kilometer of
terrain at all costs, but it is rather the goal
to focus on maximizing the losses for the enemy.
So you make the enemy fight really hard for every
meter of territory, but you also do give away some
territory in that process.
So that's my first point.
Ukraine is conducting defensive operations in
Donetsk and it's not surprising that you are moving backwards when you are defending.
Then we can of course discuss the pace, but the direction
in itself is not problematic really from a military
point of view.
The second point that I will make is that the fighting in Donetsk is right now taking
place in open territory.
It will slow down significantly when the Russians get to the city
limits and then the urban combat will begin and
it's very hard.
So the city of Pakrovsk is probably
going to be absolutely destroyed, but it's going
to take the Russians a long time to take the city.
Pakrovsk is about the same size as Bakhmoud and
it might take them something between six months to
maybe up to a year to just take the city.
That would not be surprising if we look at how these
things have played out in the past.
Then there are other cities as well in the Donetsk region that Russia also still hasn't taken.
So what I'm getting at with this is that there is a lot of work left for the Russian army before they can
declare that it's mission accomplished in Donetsk.
To be honest, I'm not sure it's realistic that they will ever be able to do that and at least
it's not something that's going to happen
anytime soon.
And the last point is that it's important to
keep in mind that when we look at what's
happening in Pakrovsk and we read the alarmist headlines
about it, that even if Russia manages to occupy
the entire Donetsk region, then that does not mean
that they win the war.
It just means that the front line runs somewhere else and it will be a little further west,
but the Ukrainian army will still be there.
They will still be able to fight
and the Russian army will also still be there and
will be able to fight and they're going to continue
fighting in other places because they have more goals than just to take the Donetsk region.
So what I'm getting at is that one, it's not
actually surprising that the Russians are able to make
progress in the area where they have the main effort in this big offensive.
Two, the current pace at this current pace, the Russians still have, they will have several years of fighting
before they take the entirety of the Donetsk region and three, even if they do take all of
Donetsk region, then that still doesn't mean that
they won the war.
So I think it's important that we calm down a bit in all these discussions
about the current Russian push against the city of Pakrovsk.
The last thing I want to mention is that the long-range air campaigns that both
sides are conducting are really playing an important role.
So there has been a lot of talk
about the Russian airstrikes on Ukraine over the last week and especially that they've had
quite a bit of success at hitting Ukrainian
power infrastructure and it's quite possible that the
lack of electricity can become a big problem for
the Ukrainians in a couple of months when it gets
cold when the winter comes.
But I think that perhaps even more interesting to notice and I think
is going a bit under the radar is the Ukrainian
air campaign against Russia.
Ukraine has introduced
new types of drones, they have demonstrated a new cruise missile that they have developed,
and we're seeing that the Ukrainians are really having a lot of success at hitting both Russian
air bases but also Russian oil facilities and it's
basically all of western Russia.
So there is a lot
of talk in the media about whether the western
countries at this point should allow the Ukrainians
to use western weapons for deep strikes into Russia, especially there's a pressure on the
Americans about this.
And I think that would absolutely be something that would make a difference.
So I think it would be a good idea.
But it's interesting that Ukraine is actually developing and using capabilities
to do this themselves and that it is now at a level where
it's going to create significant problems for the
Russians in the long run.
So what we're seeing is
probably a result of a combination of two things.
So on the one hand that the Ukrainians now have
the capability to conduct these strikes into Russia, they've developed the technology, they
have the production lines so they can produce
these drones at scale.
But then on the other hand, it's also a result of the fact that the Russians have a shortage of air defense systems.
So there's been a long period of time where the Ukrainians have had a long campaign where they
have specifically targeted Russian air defense systems.
And we're beginning to see the results of
that, that the Russians are forced to prioritize what targets do they want to protect and what
targets are they going to leave undefended.
And that's interesting because it's a dynamic
that is still developing.
And I think we should expect that these Ukrainian airstrikes will have
a bigger and bigger impact in Russia over time.
Okay, this was supposed to be a brief overview,
so I'm going to stop it here.
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Thank you very much for watching and I will see you again next time.
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