I'm buying these stocks on every dip! (Do SMART SIPs) | Akshat Shrivastava

Akshat Shrivastava
27 Sept 202420:42

Summary

TLDRIn this video, the speaker discusses the effectiveness of SIPs (Systematic Investment Plans) in various market conditions, concluding they're not suitable for all markets. They introduce a 'step up and step down SIP' strategy using cash hedges for better results. The speaker shares a curated list of 8-10 stocks for potential SIP investments, emphasizing the importance of analyzing market conditions and company fundamentals before investing.

Takeaways

  • 📉 SIPs may not be suitable for all market conditions, especially when the market is overvalued or stagnant.
  • 🚀 A better strategy could be the 'step up and step down SIP' using cash hedges, which adjusts investment based on market movements.
  • 📈 The presenter suggests that SIPs work best in a growing market, not in falling or sideways markets.
  • 💡 The concept of 'law of averages' or 'mean reversion' is introduced to explain why high returns in the past might预示着 lower returns in the future.
  • 💼 The presenter emphasizes the importance of having a cash hedge and investing lump sums strategically during market corrections.
  • 📊 The video discusses the idea of investing in stocks with a consistent growth rate and clean balance sheets, such as Hindustan Unilever and HDFC Bank.
  • 🏥 The potential for growth in the healthcare sector is highlighted, with stocks like HDFC Life being recommended for long-term investment.
  • 💹 The presenter shares a personal portfolio of stocks that he is SIPing into, targeting a 15% CAGR.
  • 🌐 The importance of diversification and hedging within a portfolio is discussed, using CAMS and Geo Finance as an example.
  • 📚 The video script stresses the value of repeated learning and understanding investment concepts to build wealth over time.

Q & A

  • What is the main topic of the video?

    -The main topic of the video is discussing the effectiveness of SIPs (Systematic Investment Plans) in the current market, suggesting a better strategy for SIPs, and discussing a list of stocks for potential SIP investments.

  • Why does the speaker believe SIPs do not make sense in today's market?

    -The speaker thinks SIPs do not make sense in today's market because historically, SIPs have not worked well in every type of market, especially in sideways or falling markets, and they believe the current market may not provide the returns of previous years.

  • What is the 'step up and step down SIP using cash hedges' strategy mentioned in the video?

    -The 'step up and step down SIP using cash hedges' strategy involves adjusting the amount invested in SIPs based on market conditions. If the market falls, one could increase the SIP amount to take advantage of lower prices (step up). Conversely, if the market rises significantly, one could decrease the SIP amount or hold more cash (step down) to avoid overpaying for investments.

  • What does the speaker mean by 'law of averages' or 'law of mean reversal' in the context of the market?

    -The speaker refers to the 'law of averages' or 'law of mean reversal' to suggest that after a period of above-average returns, the market may revert to its historical average returns or even below-average returns in subsequent periods.

  • Why does the speaker suggest having a cash hedge for investments?

    -The speaker suggests having a cash hedge to take advantage of market corrections. When the market falls, one can use the cash to invest more at lower prices, effectively buying more units of the investment.

  • What is the significance of the 200-day moving average line mentioned in the video?

    -The 200-day moving average line is used by the speaker as a guideline for buying stocks. They suggest not buying a stock in bulk if it's trading above its 200-day moving average, as it might be overvalued.

  • Why does the speaker consider certain stocks like Hindustan Unilever and HDFC Bank as good for SIPs?

    -The speaker considers stocks like Hindustan Unilever and HDFC Bank as good for SIPs because they are solid companies with consistent growth and clean balance sheets, making them safer investments.

  • What is the speaker's view on investing in HDFC Life?

    -The speaker views HDFC Life as a good long-term investment opportunity due to the expected growth in the insurance sector, driven by the Americanization of Indian healthcare.

  • What is the speaker's strategy for updating the list of stocks for SIPs?

    -The speaker's strategy involves regularly updating the list of stocks for SIPs based on market conditions, company performance, and valuations to ensure the investments continue to align with the target returns.

  • Why does the speaker emphasize the importance of understanding the rationale behind investments?

    -The speaker emphasizes understanding the rationale behind investments because it helps investors make informed decisions and build a strong foundation for their investment strategy.

  • What does the speaker mean by 'Americanization of Indian healthcare'?

    -The 'Americanization of Indian healthcare' refers to the increasing role of private insurance companies in funding and managing healthcare services in India, similar to the U.S. model where insurance companies play a significant role in the healthcare industry.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Introduction to SIPs and Market Analysis

The speaker begins by outlining the agenda for the video, which includes discussing the effectiveness of SIPs in the current market, proposing a better SIP strategy, and sharing a personal stock portfolio for potential SIP investments. The speaker argues that SIPs, or systematic investment plans, do not make sense in all market conditions, contrary to popular belief. They explain that SIPs involve investing a fixed amount at regular intervals regardless of market conditions. The speaker then critiques the common advice to 'not time the market' by pointing out that even market gurus like Warren Buffet are known to hold cash, implying that market timing is a nuanced strategy. The video promises to delve into why SIPs may not be suitable for all markets and introduces the concept of 'mean reversion' to explain market cycles.

05:01

📉 Mean Reversion and SIP Strategy Adjustments

The speaker discusses the concept of mean reversion, suggesting that because the market has performed exceptionally well over the past decade, future returns might be lower than average. They argue that SIPs are most effective in a growing market but not in a falling or sideways market. The speaker then introduces a 'step down, cash plus lump sum strategy' as a more effective approach to SIPs, which involves adjusting the amount invested based on market conditions. They emphasize the importance of maintaining a cash reserve to take advantage of market corrections and suggest that investors should be strategic about their SIPs rather than investing blindly.

10:02

💹 Portfolio Analysis and Rationale for SIP Investments

The speaker shares a list of 8-10 stocks that they personally SIP into, explaining that these stocks are chosen based on a return target of 15%. They stress that the stocks are selected for their potential to provide consistent returns and are backed by analysis and investment theses. The speaker also discusses the importance of understanding the rationale behind each investment and how this can strengthen an investment portfolio. They provide examples of stocks like Hindustan Unilever and HDFC Bank, explaining that while these are solid companies, the price at which they are bought is crucial. The speaker advocates for a disciplined approach to SIPs, buying stocks at the right price and regularly updating the portfolio.

15:04

🏥 Investing in Growth Industries and Risk Management

The speaker discusses investing in growth industries, using CAMS and HDFC Life as examples. They argue that companies in industries with high profit margins and low operational costs are good investment opportunities. The speaker also touches on the risks associated with such investments, particularly regulatory risks, and how these can be mitigated. They emphasize the importance of portfolio diversification and hedging to manage risk, suggesting that even if one investment underperforms, others may compensate for the loss. The speaker also discusses the potential of the Indian healthcare industry, drawing parallels with the American healthcare system and suggesting that insurance companies and hospital chains are poised for significant growth.

20:06

💼 Portfolio Updates and the Future of SIPs

The speaker concludes by discussing their approach to updating their investment portfolio, mentioning stocks like TCS and Five Pesa Capital. They reflect on the potential benefits of a growing number of equity investors in India, suggesting that companies facilitating equity investments could benefit. The speaker reiterates the importance of a strategic approach to SIPs, emphasizing the need to understand the portfolio's construct and to adjust SIPs accordingly. They encourage viewers to adopt a smart SIP strategy to create additional value in their portfolios and promise to provide updates on the portfolio in future videos.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡SIP

SIP stands for Systematic Investment Plan, which is a method of investing a fixed amount of money in a financial asset, such as mutual funds or stocks, at regular intervals. In the video, the speaker discusses the effectiveness of SIPs in different market conditions and proposes a strategic approach to SIPs that involves adjusting the amount invested based on market fluctuations.

💡Market Conditions

Market conditions refer to the state of the financial markets at a given time, which can influence investment strategies. The video explores how SIPs may not be suitable in every type of market condition, such as in a stagnant or falling market, and suggests alternative strategies like step-up and step-down SIPs.

💡Step-up and Step-down SIP

This concept refers to adjusting the amount invested in SIPs based on market conditions. A step-up SIP involves increasing the investment amount when the market is favorable, while a step-down SIP involves decreasing it when the market is not favorable. The video emphasizes the importance of this strategy in maximizing returns and managing risks.

💡Cash Hedges

Cash Hedges are funds held in cash that can be used to take advantage of market downturns. The video suggests maintaining a cash hedge to invest in lump sums when the market corrects, which can be a part of a strategic SIP approach.

💡Law of Mean Reversion

The Law of Mean Reversion is a theory in finance that suggests that asset prices and returns eventually revert to the mean or average level. The video uses this concept to argue that because the market has performed exceptionally well in the past decade, it might underperform in the next decade, thus affecting the effectiveness of SIPs.

💡Nifty-50

Nifty-50 is an index representing the 50 leading companies listed on the National Stock Exchange of India. It is used as a benchmark to gauge the overall health of the Indian stock market. The video uses the Nifty-50 chart to illustrate the performance of the market over time and to discuss the suitability of SIPs in different market phases.

💡Lump Sum Investment

A lump sum investment is a single, one-time investment of a large sum of money into a financial asset. The video suggests that in sideways markets, lump sum investments can be more effective than SIPs.

💡Internal Rate of Return (IRR)

IRR is a financial metric used to evaluate the profitability of an investment. It represents the discount rate at which the net present value of an investment becomes zero. The video mentions IRR in the context of setting a target return for investments and choosing the right instruments to achieve that return.

💡200-day Moving Average

The 200-day moving average is a technical analysis indicator that smooths out price data over a specific period (200 days) to create a constantly updated average. In the video, the speaker uses the 200-day moving average as a reference point for deciding when to buy or sell stocks, particularly in the context of SIPs.

💡Portfolio

A portfolio refers to a collection of financial assets, such as stocks, bonds, and cash equivalents, held by an investor. The video discusses building a portfolio of stocks for SIPs and the importance of diversification and regular updates to the portfolio to achieve the desired returns.

💡CAGR

CAGR stands for Compound Annual Growth Rate, which is a measure of the average annual growth rate of an investment. The video mentions a target CAGR of 15-18% for the stocks selected for SIPs, indicating the expected annual growth rate of the investment.

Highlights

The video discusses whether SIPs make sense in today's market and concludes they do not.

Introduces a better strategy for SIPs: step up and step down SIP using cash hedges.

Shares a list of 8-10 stocks for a strategic SIP portfolio.

Explains SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) and its traditional approach.

Critiques the common belief that SIPs work in every market condition.

Analyzes historical market data to show SIPs don't always yield high returns.

Contrary to popular advice, argues that market timing can be beneficial for SIPs.

Introduces the law of averages and its implication for market returns and SIP strategy.

Advises on SIP strategy in different market conditions: growing, falling, and sideways markets.

Recommends having a cash hedge for portfolio and explains when to invest it.

Discusses the concept of internal rate of return (IRR) and how it influences investment choices.

Provides an example of how to apply step-down cash lump sum strategy.

Stresses the importance of not just investing in any stock but choosing the right ones at the right price.

Mentions stocks like Hindustan Unilever and HDFC Bank as examples of consistent performers.

Advocates for regular analysis and updating of the SIP portfolio.

Talks about the potential of insurance companies like HDFC Life in the evolving Indian healthcare sector.

Suggests that a well-constructed portfolio can yield significant returns over time.

Encourages viewers to do smart SIPs for better investment outcomes.

Transcripts

play00:09

hey guys.

play00:12

Welcome to today's video.

play00:13

On today's video, I'm going to do three things.

play00:15

Number one, I'm going to speak about the fact whether doing SIPs in today's

play00:19

market, does it make sense or not?

play00:21

Short answer is no, it does not make sense.

play00:23

I'll help you understand why.

play00:25

Number two, what is a better strategy of doing SIPs?

play00:28

I will speak about something called step up and step down SIP using cash hedges.

play00:33

This is something that I've briefly touched upon on some of my open videos,

play00:36

but now this strategy becomes really critical.

play00:38

Number three, I have picked a list of 8-10 stocks where I will be SIPing my money,

play00:43

and I will talk a little bit about that portfolio.

play00:46

Let's begin the video and let me first and foremost tell you what is the meaning of

play00:50

SIP and why SIP does not work in every market.

play00:55

Why is this a controversial topic to discuss?

play00:57

Because.

play01:00

Let me, first and foremost explain what SIP means.

play01:04

Sip means systematic investment plan.

play01:06

In very simple word, it means that every month you are putting certain amount of

play01:10

money into a list of mutual funds or a list of stocks or a list of asset

play01:14

that you trust on a monthly basis.

play01:17

Whether the market is going up,, you

play01:22

do not bother every month, first of the month or you pick a random date, fifth of

play01:26

the month or 10th of the month, you keep on putting money on that That specific

play01:30

date, that specific amount, irrespective of the market condition.

play01:35

Now this seems like a very weird way of investing money.

play01:38

Why am I saying weird way?

play01:40

Because it's very easy.

play01:41

I will just continue to run my SIP.

play01:44

And on a long term basis, 10 years, 20 years, 30 years, I will

play01:48

make crazy amount of money.

play01:50

Now, will you make crazy amount of money?

play01:51

Will you not make crazy amount of money?

play01:53

People will show you different calculations.

play01:56

But here are practical points that you need to understand.

play01:59

Point number one SIP will not work in every single type of market.

play02:03

Let me first and foremost show you some examples.

play02:07

Let us begin the story by talking about Nifty-fifty chart, which is the

play02:10

most trusted chart, so to say.

play02:13

For example, if you have made any money?

play02:20

Very less money you would have made because the market stayed what?

play02:23

Market stayed sideways.

play02:25

So this entire phase, gone.

play02:27

Here I'm looking at a fairly long period of time.

play02:29

So almost like 10 year basis.

play02:31

You did not make much money.

play02:33

This is 0. 1.

play02:34

Now, then comes the second phase.

play02:37

For example, this was the phase 2008.

play02:40

You lost money in this phase.

play02:43

Then there was recovery.

play02:45

Then the market stayed sideways.

play02:46

And till here, you did not really make, and I will just mark these points between

play02:50

point A to B, you again did not make any crazy amount of money.

play02:54

This was almost like 2008,.

play02:58

You again did not make much money. So this is two.

play03:02

But after 2014, 2015, markets have done something amazing.

play03:06

And let me highlight that by using this red line..

play03:13

People made crazy ton of money.

play03:16

Now comes the controversial pick, because now if you speak with fund managers, there

play03:21

are a lot of people who promote SIPs.

play03:22

They will say that, You know what, boss, do not worry about the market.

play03:25

You cannot time the market.

play03:26

You cannot do XYZ in the market.

play03:28

Even the best of investors do not time the market, so please do not stop your SIPs.

play03:35

See, the person who actually gave the quote, Never time the market is Mr. Warren

play03:38

Buffet, and he himself right now is sitting on record amount of cash.

play03:42

So the entire point that do not time the market and all that stuff, he

play03:47

must have said it in some context.

play03:48

People just took it to frame their narrative.

play03:51

So please do not believe in that..

play03:55

This is point one.

play03:57

And first controversial point or counter argument.

play03:59

The second key point is called as law of averages or law of mean reversal.

play04:04

Now, mean reversal, this is the average.

play04:09

Average of anything.

play04:10

So the average of something is 50.

play04:11

Sometimes a batsman will score more than 50 runs.

play04:15

They might score like 80.

play04:16

Then sometimes the batsman might score like only 30, then 80, then

play04:21

30, something like this.

play04:22

There will be an entire graph and this entire scatter plot will be there.

play04:26

Basically, if you have to guess that in the future,.

play04:33

This concept is called as law of mean reversion.

play04:43

Now in market context, why this is important is, in the

play04:49

last roughly 10 years, in fact, you can see it from here, because here, the

play04:52

SIP game did not give you benefits. So let's see.

play04:55

In the last 10 years, roughly like 2014 to almost 2024, the markets have generally

play05:01

given more than the above average.

play05:02

So according to law of mean reversion, chances are that in the next 10 years, if

play05:08

you are keeping a longer viewpoint, the chances are that there

play05:12

will be reversion of the mean.

play05:14

On an average, market gives 12.

play05:16

5% returns, this Nifty 50.

play05:19

So in the next 10 years, from 2024 to 2034, we might only make 8, 8.

play05:25

5. Why?

play05:26

Because in the last 10 years, market might have given 15, 16% CAGR..

play05:32

On this broad maths only work, it's not as if I can give you exact numbers.

play05:37

Now, why can I not give you exact numbers?

play05:39

Because if you actually think, you yourself will understand, see, boss, when

play05:43

you start working, you might only be investing 10,000 on SIPs.

play05:48

After one, two years, when your salary increase, you will increase

play05:50

that amount to 15,000.

play05:51

Then you increase that amount to 25,000th of monthly investment, all that stuff.

play05:55

So you are thinking, Oh, my God, my money is going to go up, my portfolio has

play06:00

increased and all that stuff because you have increased the base amount.

play06:03

Doing this, the SIP calculation is really, really complicated.

play06:06

One way of doing this is to look at the sideways movements and avoiding these.

play06:11

When you are in the market, in the broad range, it might

play06:14

go like something like this.

play06:15

In the long term basis, this type of a thing might happen.

play06:20

In these type of markets, you need to be very careful.

play06:23

This is very, very important point.

play06:25

I'm just simply appealing to your logic.

play06:27

It's your money.

play06:29

Whether you want to invest it properly, not invest it properly, it

play06:32

is completely your wish.

play06:33

I'm not saying that SIPs are bad.

play06:35

In fact, I am a proponent of SIPs.

play06:37

There is nothing wrong with it.

play06:39

But SIPs should typically be done either in a discounted market where you see the

play06:44

markets rising from this point very, very clearly over a 10-year basis

play06:47

or in a fairly valued market.

play06:49

If you feel that on a short to midterm basis, the markets have become a little

play06:53

bit bloated, then maybe it might make sense to strategize your SIPs.

play06:58

Now this has been beautifully captured on this particular graph, and

play07:01

I will just show it to you.

play07:03

Here is what the SIP graph says.

play07:06

Basically, SIPs work really well in a growing market..

play07:11

If the market is rising, rising, rising, then the SIP will work wonderfully well.

play07:15

Sip will not work at all in a falling market.

play07:19

On a sideways market, lump sum investment is what will work.

play07:22

This is the basis or the macro basis on which you need to shape and refine your

play07:27

decisions and accordingly make bets.

play07:30

Now comes the second point that, what would be a better strategy right

play07:32

now if you want to plan your SIPs?

play07:35

A better way of doing an SIP right now would be called as step down

play07:40

cash plus lump sum strategy.

play07:41

Now, what exactly is this?

play07:43

I've given you a flavor of this on my open videos.

play07:46

Now, very humble request that many people keep on cribbing in the comment section

play07:49

that, you know what Akshat, you repeat content, all that stuff.

play07:51

By repeating content is how you develop an acumen to implement things.

play07:56

I have built a million dollar plus profit portfolio in front of all of you in the

play08:01

last two, two and a half, three years.

play08:03

It's because of consolidation, because of constant enforcement of knowledge.

play08:07

This is very, very important to understand.

play08:08

If you do not study these concepts over and over again.

play08:13

So please, 2minutes, and then you can keep on cribbing and all that stuff.

play08:17

But please understand, this is not a stock recommendation channel.

play08:19

If you buy like 1,000, 1,000 of every stock, will it actually

play08:20

add to your networth? The short answer is no.

play08:21

Money is made from every channel and all that stuff.

play08:22

You'll buy like 1,000, 1,000 of every stock.

play08:24

Will it actually add to your networth? The short answer is no.

play08:27

Money is made from knowledge.

play08:30

Knowledge comes from reinforcement of principles and concepts.

play08:33

So please study this.

play08:34

Anyways, the market right now is at 25,000, 26,000.

play08:39

Now see, if it falls by a 10% margin, that's a great time to do cash.

play08:49

This is a simple flowchart.

play08:50

Take a print out of it, stick it wherever you are trading or five or five, what you

play09:03

simply need to do is, let's say that you do a monthly SIP of 1,000, and you can

play09:10

just stick it in front of it or downgrade it by a factor of 10 or five or five..

play09:20

In case the market goes up to 28,000, now what should you do?

play09:28

Should you do SIP? No.

play09:30

At most, do 70% of SIP.

play09:32

Your first criteria should be to develop enough cash position.

play09:37

So at least have 20% cash hedge for your portfolio, which means that if you have,

play09:41

let's say, a 10,000-rupee of portfolio, 20,000 cash hedge should be there.

play09:47

When should that be invested?

play09:48

Whenever you find the market, at least 5% from the top or 10% from the top.

play09:53

Now, this is your lump sum investment that you will be doing.

play09:57

So whenever the market corrects by 10% or 5% and from the top, that

play10:00

is when you invest this.

play10:02

This simple process is called a step-down cash lump sum strategy.

play10:05

If you simply adopt it, it's not as if you have to sit down and look

play10:08

on your screen and all that. Weekly, check.

play10:11

It's not end of the world. It's completely fine.

play10:13

Now, that's point one.

play10:14

Point two is called as IRR, internal rate of return.

play10:18

Now, this is a complicated corporate finance concept.

play10:21

I'll not teach you much, but a simple word may be, how much money or what is the

play10:25

target return I am targeting as a person?

play10:28

Now, for some people, it would be,, after tax, FD rate, those are FD investors.

play10:35

Now some people will say, 12.

play10:36

5, at least I need 20%.

play10:40

Now pick up the instrument in which you want to play this game.

play10:42

For example, if your target return is 12.

play10:44

5, you will not make this type of return by going to Nifty50.

play10:48

You have to go to MidiCap or SmallCap stocks or Index, whichever

play10:52

instruments you pick. So you have to pick and choose.

play10:54

That's it. That's what I would say.

play10:56

Now the third segment is that I will talk about a few stocks on

play10:59

which I will be a SIP.

play11:00

Now, please listen to these words, my return target is 15%.

play11:07

I'm not trying to do any magic on that portfolio.

play11:10

There is a separate portfolio which is like a risk-free portfolio for me.

play11:14

This is a consistent compounded type of a portfolio, which is 15-18% range.

play11:24

This is what I will speak about in the next few minutes.

play11:27

This is a list that I've released on the member community of my YouTube.

play11:36

This is not a stock recommendation.

play11:38

Everything is driven by analysis, everything is driven by data, everything

play11:41

is driven by facts and thesis.

play11:44

Investment thesis.

play11:46

But I'm at least helping you understand the rationale.

play11:48

So understanding the rationale is where the strength of your

play11:50

investment comes from.

play11:52

Let me explain this entire logic to you.

play11:55

And more importantly, every 2-3 weeks, I will do an analysis of these 15-20 stocks.

play12:03

The important point being that, okay, this is a rough list that we will look at.

play12:07

I will add more stocks to it, delete some stocks from it, depending on

play12:10

how market is progressing.

play12:11

And in those stocks, because we are targeting that 15 to 18%

play12:15

CAGR, it will update.

play12:16

That's the intelligent way of doing SIP.

play12:19

For example, you see, Hindustan Unilever, which is one of the

play12:24

stocks on this portfolio.

play12:26

Now everyone knows that Hindustan Unilever is a solid company.

play12:29

There is nothing off with like, Hindustan Unilever, the Faltu Fund

play12:32

company and all that stuff.

play12:33

But problem is what's the problem on Hindustan Unilever type of stocks is that

play12:37

basically you buy them at crazy price.

play12:40

For example, if you look at it, it was in 2022, and it was in 2022, and it was in.

play12:47

But in the last six months, it has given 32% returns.

play12:56

Similarly, people joke about me, you have a lot of jokes, that you have a HDFC bank,

play12:59

you have said, you have so much of it, you have so much of it, you have not given it,

play13:02

was that the only stock I had in my portfolio?

play13:05

No.

play13:05

In the last six months, it has given 25% run up.

play13:08

These are consistent 15 to 20% CAGR type of stocks where you can put, where you can

play13:12

put a lot of money whenever they are available at the right price to buy.

play13:18

.

play13:20

So it will go up by another 15, 20%.

play13:30

Then you will not be able to buy it only.

play13:32

The point I'm trying to drive home is very simple.

play13:34

You see, here is a list.

play13:36

You can keep on aggregating it.

play13:39

It will make sense from that perspective.

play13:41

These are not dangerous companies.

play13:43

Now, why are these not dangerous companies?

play13:44

Because the balance sheet for these companies is very clean.

play13:48

For example, if you take a look at the sales growth, are their profits

play13:53

growing by roughly 10, 15%?

play13:55

The short answer is yes and yes.

play13:57

Do they have crazy amount of debt? No.

play13:59

Do they have any promoter, pledged holding and all that stuff?

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No..

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So the point I'm trying to drive home is that these are safer type of companies

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where the only consideration is price.

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Now, this is the 200 day moving average line.

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Now, HUL stock.

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Now, if you want to do a lump sum SIP on HUL, you have money and you want to

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diversify, should you be doing that bulk buy on Hindustan Unilever stock right now?

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No, absolutely not..

play14:30

Then you should buy it in bulk.

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So far, I have been a holder of Hindustan Unilever stock since 2010 or 2009, and

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I have always had that stock in my portfolio.

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Chai market, upar jai, chai niche jai, chai sideways jai.

play14:45

But I never purchased it more than its 200-day moving average line.

play14:48

This is the most important point.

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If you are doing SIP in Hindustan Unilever, this is a simple

play14:53

point that you need to note.

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Which you should pick, you should execute. This is how money is made.

play15:00

Money is not made.

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If somebody has said, SIP, you can keep doing it, you can keep doing

play15:04

it, and all that stuff. I hope that you see it in that spirit.

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Let's pick example number 2, which is CAMS, which is again, in my portfolio, I

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am sitting on 130% profit on this talk already.

play15:14

I had picked up this talk roughly one and a half, two years ago.

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You can check my portfolio where I have invested a decent amount.

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Similarly, HDFC AMC, I am sitting on more than 100% gains.

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Now, the reason is that these stocks, even today, are good

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See, guys, basically the point is this?

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How can you say that these are good stocks?

play15:36

Because

play15:49

if you are investing in

play15:51

fast growth industries where the profit margins are very high,

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where not a lot of money is required in terms of operational.

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The biggest risk that CAMS, CDSL, CRISL type

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of companies have are regulatory risk.

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Now, if the regulation is clear, then these type of companies do not

play16:16

have a lot of inherent risk.

play16:18

So you always have to think from a growth perspective and risk

play16:21

mitigation perspective.

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Now, from a growth perspective, a company like CAMS will do exceptionally

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well in the future.

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Cdsl will also make it a lot, CRISL will also make it a lot..

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It's important that if I'm investing, let's say, 100 on CAMS, I'll have an.

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I put like 200, 100 in CAMS and 100 in geo finance.

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Now, I put 200, 100 in CAMPS and 100 in geo finance.

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Now, CAMPS, correct by 50%.

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But why will it correct by 50%?

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Because someone is eating that market share.

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So who is the number one candidate to eat market share from CAMS, hypothetically, if

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something major change has to happen, it is most likely going to be

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a company like geo finance..

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Then what will happen to geo finance talk?

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Well, it will 5X, 6X.

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So a loss is happening here because of investing in CAMS, it

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will get compensated here.

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Therefore, having it in your portfolio, updating it, hedging it sensibly, are all

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small, small tricks that you must understand.

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Only then this type of investing makes sense.

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From this list, I will also speak about something like HDFC Life.

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Now, when I spoke about HDFC Life, this is a stock that I picked right

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after COVID, around 2021, mid.

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Since then, it has given very good run up.

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Now people are asking, should you invest in HDFC Life or not?

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See, if you're a long term player, then something like HDFC Life

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makes a lot of sense. Why?

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You need to look at the Americanization of Indian health care which is happening.

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Now in America, what happens?

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Well, any medical care or medical aid is driven by insurance company.

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If you do not have insurance in America, you honestly cannot get treated.

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You will say,.

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It will cost me $200,000 to get my finger fixed.

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So leave it. I'll just work with four fingers.

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That's it. This is literally what happens in the US.

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Why? Because the cost of medicine is very high.

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Now, why is the cost of medicine very high?

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Because insurance company lobby at the top..

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We'll see health care.

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You don't get in a bad mood.

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This is the game. This is the game.

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Top that happens in America.

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This is the game which is happening in India also.

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There are different stages through which this will be played out.

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First step will be formalization of health care.

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Then those insurance companies will work with the government to get instituted into

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their social security schemes, et cetera.

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If you're taking a 15, 20-year viewpoint on an industry, then basically health life

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insurance companies are going to make crazy amount of money.

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This applies both to health insurance and life insurance products, both.

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This applies to hospital chains like Max hospital, Apollo, et cetera.

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Therefore, these are in my portfolio.

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Now, TCS is something that I had picked roughly a few months back,

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four, five months back. It has given 40% odd run up.

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Right now, am I doing SIP?

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No, on this, I would not do SIP as of now.

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I think it is fairly valued.

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I typically do SIPs even on stocks when it is somewhat sensibly valued.

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I've created a list of 15, 20 stocks here.

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I will keep on updating this list.

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I'll make maybe 30 stock lists, and I'll keep on doing SIP.

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On things that make sense to do SIP that month.

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I'll keep on updating this list and we'll keep you guys updated.

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Now, some of you might be off the viewpoint in CeeBoss.

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You know what?

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I just want to pick solid companies that will do well in the future..

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But the reward that I will get, it will compensate for my risk.

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For example, the number of people who invest in equities are only 3-5%.

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So actually invest in equities, be it through direct equities or mutual funds.

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Now, if this If this number goes three times, then 10 %.

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America, close to 50 % people are investing.

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Now, okay, so if 10 % people are investing in equities, mutual funds, et cetera,

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then who do you think is going to benefit?

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Well, companies like , companies like Five Pesa Capital.

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So these becomes very good candidate if you are playing that growth game.

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So if you understand this construct of your portfolio, then doing this type of

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step up, step down, SIP, segmented SIP, it will make a lot more sense and it will

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definitely create a 3, 4 % alpha on your profile.

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So I hope that this video actually helped you learn how to do smart SIPs.

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If you did enjoy the video, do press the like button and I will see you very soon,

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and I'll make an updated video regarding more ads to this portfolio.

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Thank you so much for watching, and I'll see you soon.

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