Ubisoft's Situation Is Even Worse Than You Think.
Summary
TLDRUbisoft faces a financial crisis with its stock plummeting, leading to a shareholder revolt and a strategic overhaul. The company abandons exploitative business models like paid advanced access and season passes, focusing on player-friendly strategies. CEO Yves Guillemot emphasizes a player-centric approach and long-term brand value. Amidst this, Ubisoft delays 'Assassin's Creed: Shadows' for further polish, reflecting on the underperformance of 'Star Wars Outlaws'. The company's future hinges on increasing day-one sales, cutting costs, and potentially a leveraged buyout, as activist investors eye taking Ubisoft private for greater control and turnaround.
Takeaways
- 📉 Ubisoft's stock has plummeted significantly, with a 60% drop year-to-date, 47% drop month-over-month, and a 20% drop in a single day.
- 🔍 An internal shareholder revolt led by an activist investor is pressuring Ubisoft to make major changes, including leveraging EU law for more control and long-term vision.
- 🏭 CEO Yves Guillemot is under immense pressure to defend the family business and address the company's financial struggles.
- 🎮 Ubisoft is overhauling its business model, ending paid advanced access and season passes, and changing its PC platform strategy.
- 🚫 The company is moving away from controversial practices like psychological forceful revenue optimization and focusing on player-friendly strategies.
- 🌐 Ubisoft games will now be available on Steam, which is a positive move for consumers and a shift from their previous resistance to platform fees.
- 📅 The delay of 'Assassin's Creed: Shadows' and the underperformance of 'Star Wars Outlaws' have led to a reevaluation of Ubisoft's release and content strategy.
- 💸 The cancellation and refund of pre-orders for 'Shadows' indicate a significant change in Ubisoft's approach to game releases and player expectations.
- 🔄 The narrative shift towards player-centric gameplay and long-term brand value is a strategic response to the financial crisis and shareholder pressure.
- 🔮 Looking ahead, Ubisoft aims to increase average sale price through day one sales, improve player experience, and set franchises up for long-term success.
Q & A
What caused Ubisoft to slash their financial targets and experience a significant drop in stock prices?
-Ubisoft's stock dropped due to a combination of weak financial performance, an internal shareholder revolt, and underperforming game releases like 'Star Wars Outlaws.' The pressure from an activist investor, who criticized the deal between Ubisoft’s CEO and Tencent, also contributed to the company's financial decline.
What is the main issue raised by the activist investor regarding Ubisoft's management?
-The activist investor is concerned that Ubisoft's CEO, Yves Guillemot, and the Tencent deal give too much control to the company's leadership, which they argue is unfair to minority shareholders. They want to use EU law to crack open the company's structure, seek more control, and push for long-term strategic changes.
How has Ubisoft's business model changed according to the video?
-Ubisoft is moving away from practices like paid advanced access, season passes, and delaying Steam releases. The company is shifting toward a more player-friendly model, focusing on delivering polished games and a better overall experience.
What effect has 'Star Wars Outlaws' had on Ubisoft's current situation?
-'Star Wars Outlaws' underperformed both in sales and reception, which led to Ubisoft reevaluating its future content plans for the game. The game's launch was plagued by minor issues and a lack of polish, causing many players to drop off early.
Why is Ubisoft making player-friendly changes to its business model?
-Ubisoft is making these changes out of sheer desperation to turn things around. Their financial situation is dire, and they need to win back players by providing better value and eliminating unpopular practices like season passes and advanced access.
What are some of the specific changes Ubisoft is implementing to address player feedback?
-Ubisoft is cancelling season passes, advanced access, and paid expansions. Instead, they are offering free expansions to pre-order customers and focusing on improving the game’s quality of life through patches, aiming to release more polished games from day one.
What role does Assassin’s Creed play in Ubisoft's future strategy?
-Assassin’s Creed is Ubisoft’s flagship franchise, and the success of future titles like 'Shadows' is crucial for the company’s survival. If Assassin’s Creed fails, it could spell disaster for Ubisoft, as other major franchises like Far Cry and Ghost Recon have already declined.
How are weak sales and a soft reception for 'Star Wars Outlaws' affecting Ubisoft’s decision-making?
-The weak performance of 'Star Wars Outlaws' has led Ubisoft to reconsider their future content investment for the game. They are hesitant to pour more money into DLC if the base game is underperforming. However, they plan to release patches and a first expansion to boost the game's longevity.
What are Ubisoft's long-term strategies to improve their financial situation?
-Ubisoft plans to focus on increasing the average sale price by offering better day-one incentives, releasing games on Steam from the start, and shifting toward more player-friendly practices. They are also addressing player feedback to release more polished games.
What is the potential impact of the shareholder revolt on Ubisoft’s future?
-The shareholder revolt, led by an activist investor, could lead to significant changes in Ubisoft’s management and business strategy. The investor is pushing for a strategy similar to Activision's, focusing on core franchises and cutting costs by eliminating non-essential projects and studios.
Outlines
📉 Ubisoft's Financial Downfall and Internal Conflict
Ubisoft is facing a financial crisis, with their stock dropping drastically from 94 EUR to 9.2 EUR, due to a tumultuous period of poor performance. Shareholders, led by an activist investor, are rebelling against CEO Yves Guillemot and a deal with Tencent that grants majority control to the Guillemot family. The activist investor wants to crack open the company using EU laws, pushing for major reforms. The pressure on Guillemot has resulted in Ubisoft making drastic changes to its business strategy, which include giving players what they want and eliminating unfavorable business models like paid advanced access and season passes.
🎮 Major Changes in Ubisoft’s Business Strategy
Ubisoft has overhauled its business model, abandoning unpopular practices such as paid advanced access and season passes, and now releasing games on Steam immediately, rather than with delayed launches. These changes represent an attempt to win back consumer trust by eliminating practices that were seen as exploitative. The move to Steam is particularly notable, as Ubisoft's previous strategy of pushing their proprietary Uplay platform had backfired. The company is now trying to create competition through fairer consumer practices, but these changes highlight the internal desperation caused by Ubisoft's struggles, particularly in light of delays and issues with key games like Assassin's Creed: Shadows and Star Wars Outlaws.
🤔 Star Wars Outlaws' Mixed Reception and Lessons for Ubisoft
Star Wars Outlaws has underperformed, despite initial strong pre-orders. Minor but impactful issues, like poor stealth mechanics, led to a negative reception that has significantly affected player engagement. Ubisoft is learning from these mistakes, postponing the release of Assassin's Creed: Shadows to apply more polish. They've canceled all pre-orders and refunded customers, removing features like season passes and advanced access, which previously inflated game prices through psychological manipulation (Goldilocks Effect). Ubisoft is now offering the first expansion for free to pre-order buyers to incentivize day-one purchases, emphasizing a shift towards long-term player trust.
🎯 The New Ubisoft Strategy: Focus on Long-Term Success
Ubisoft is trying to refocus on player-friendly strategies to secure the long-term success of its franchises. Pre-orders for Assassin's Creed: Shadows will include free expansions, with the game launching on Steam to ensure maximum exposure and competitive pricing. Ubisoft’s shift from controversial revenue-generating practices shows a strong desire to regain the narrative and prevent future failures like Star Wars Outlaws. The company's ongoing adjustments reflect a focus on ensuring that flagship titles like Assassin’s Creed remain profitable and sustainable over time, emphasizing a player-first approach.
🧐 Internal Struggles and Activist Investor Push for Change
Ubisoft is facing increasing pressure from an activist investor who is pushing for a strategy similar to Activision's—focusing only on key franchises and cutting down on risky projects. Ghost Recon: Breakpoint's failure and the overextension of Far Cry have contributed to Ubisoft's decline, leaving Assassin's Creed as the company's most valuable IP. The internal memo from CEO Yves Guillemot admits the need for more polished games and acknowledges that Ubisoft must adapt to a more competitive market. As sales decline across major markets like the UK and EU, Ubisoft is scrambling to survive in an industry that punishes weak competitors.
📉 The Market Decline and Ubisoft’s Struggle for Relevance
The gaming market is facing a significant downturn, with sales declining across major regions like the UK, EU, and the US. Ubisoft’s reliance on underperforming products, alongside overly expensive games rated around 7.5 out of 10, has made the company vulnerable. The company’s previous strategies, including risky late entries into popular genres like extraction shooters and battle royales, have failed. With UK game sales down 30% and a single-digit decline expected in the US, Ubisoft is at risk of losing further ground unless they refocus on core franchises and eliminate costly, ineffective projects.
💰 Investor Opportunities: Turning Ubisoft Around
Activist investors see an opportunity to turn Ubisoft around by buying stocks at low prices and aiming to increase their value through strategic changes. One option is to trim down Ubisoft's costs by cutting underperforming projects, firing staff working on speculative ventures like NFTs and the metaverse, and selling or closing studios. Investors could also push for Ubisoft to go private, leveraging private equity to buy out public shareholders, allowing them more control over decision-making. This investor-led strategy aims to restructure Ubisoft into a more streamlined, profitable entity, potentially through a leveraged buyout.
⚖️ Activist Investor's Battle for Control Over Ubisoft
The activist investor leading the charge wants to break the stronghold that Yves Guillemot and Tencent have over Ubisoft by utilizing EU laws designed to protect minority shareholders. Guillemot has historically resisted external influence to retain control, but the investor's growing stake signals confidence in Ubisoft’s potential as a financial asset. Their ultimate goal is to turn Ubisoft into a more efficient company by eliminating costly ventures and focusing on high-performing franchises, likely through private equity. This could result in Ubisoft going private, freeing it from the demands of quarterly earnings reports and public shareholder scrutiny.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Ubisoft
💡Shareholder Revolt
💡Activist Investor
💡Season Pass
💡Advanced Access
💡Goldilocks Effect
💡Star Wars Outlaws
💡Assassin’s Creed Shadows
💡Tencent
💡Private Equity
Highlights
Ubisoft's stock has plummeted 60% month over month and 47% year to date, with a 20% drop in a single day.
Internal shareholder revolt led by an activist investor is pressuring Ubisoft to make significant changes.
Activist investors argue that the CEO's control of the company is unfair to minority shareholders.
Ubisoft is undergoing a major business model change in response to internal and external pressures.
Paid advanced access and season passes are being discontinued by Ubisoft.
Ubisoft games will now be released on Steam the same day as other platforms.
The decision to cancel pre-orders and refund for 'Assassin's Creed: Shadows' indicates a shift in strategy.
Ubisoft is removing the Goldilocks effect from its pricing strategy to focus on player-friendly models.
The underperformance of 'Star Wars Outlaws' has led to a reevaluation of Ubisoft's approach to game releases.
Ubisoft aims to increase the average sale price while maintaining player-friendly practices.
The company is focusing on polishing games and addressing player feedback to improve the gaming experience.
Ubisoft's CEO acknowledges the need for a player-centric approach and long-term value for their brands.
The gaming market is becoming increasingly competitive, with a decline in sales across regions.
Activist investors are looking to take Ubisoft private to gain more control and implement changes.
Ubisoft's strategy includes eliminating risks and focusing on safe products to ensure long-term success.
The company is expected to make significant cuts and changes to its operations to improve financial performance.
Investors are positioning themselves to capitalize on Ubisoft's current low stock price.
Ubisoft's future strategy involves a potential second launch of 'Outlaws' with a focus on narrative and player experience.
Transcripts
it's late September and just after a
brutal fortnite a board meeting is
called shareholders are addressed and
before today's story properly hits the
public Ubisoft leadership breaks the
news that everything is changing and
that because of that they've had to
slash their financial targets year to
dat their stock is down 60% month over
month it's down 47% and just today it
dropped 20% what once traded at 94 EUR
is now trading for
9.2 this is dire you're no doubt here
because of Outlaws and shadows and I
will get there there's a lot to talk
about but there's an entire angle
driving this that you're probably not
aware of because usually it's presented
in a dry and boring way so let me fix
that an internal shareholder Revolt led
by an activist investor essentially
boiled down to this they said that CEO
EES gilmo and the 10 cents deal which
basically shored up their control of the
company in the view of the activist
investor is unfair to minority
shareholders and to get around this
problem they want to crack open the
company using EU law they want more
control they want major changes and in
their Vision they want to leverage what
they learned as an investor of
Activision Blizzard have a long-term
vision and make sweeping changes it is
that pressure that leads us here Ubisoft
you see is a family business defending
control has been a massive theme over
the last decade and that means that CEO
e gilmo now more than probably any time
in his professional life is feeling the
Heat and that is why we see this the
mother of all bright glass in case of
emergency changes things that basically
are giving players what they want and
removing a bunch of bad business model
things and here the job of me and my
team is to break down the business and
the strategy of how games are made so
that whenever you see the insane
depressing bollocks of the news you're
actually left understanding why and to
help that mission and to get more
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you click the Subscribe and like button
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so far that's because of your support
and uh let's just say things are going
in the direction where I will be able to
invest in making the show better and
invest more in the team which is damn
exciting okay let's talk about the
change Ubisoft are upending their entire
business model beyond the bit where you
know they're still going to be selling
you video games but paid for advanced
access is Dead season passes are dead
and the whole thing of steam releases
Just Happening a year after well that's
also dead and that's amazing the whole
thing that they wanted to do on the PC
platform was to put you in up play to
have a up play subscription button right
beside the most expensive edition of
whatever game it is so that you get you
play premium and of course they didn't
want the steam fee they tried that and
it's obviously hurt them so now their
games are going to be on Steam and for
consumers this is unambiguously a good
thing season passes are often misused
Advanced access basically sucks and we
all hate it those going is good and
that's because they're psychologically
forceful Revenue optimization squeezes
that are just applied to all players
seeing a AAA incumbent go against that
is good and it's good even if you never
plan to buy a Ubisoft game the reason is
this is now somewhere where the big
companies can compete with each other by
actually being less of a dick but of
course this happening in the first place
can only mean one thing that internally
things were absolutely on fire and that
this is sheer desperation things began
to look strange when Assassin's Creed
Shadows pulled out of Tokyo game show
that was a major marketing beat of
course it's a game set in Japan and it's
Tokyo game show it's also one that
Microsoft are going to be having a
presentation at so eyes would be on it
rumors of a delay immediately began to
swirl and very soon they were confirmed
and we got statements we got reasons and
the big one is Star Wars Outlaws Ubisoft
confirmed that analyst assessments of
the game underperformed are true it's
softly they say despite solid reviews
that's how they frame it but uh solid
does not Scream by me now outstanding
does and the reviews were not
outstanding look at the reviews and you
see that polish is a problem you see
that Minor Details Matter every in-depth
review mentions them and as an example
my colleague who's editing this video a
lifelong Star Wars fan the literal
Target of this game almost quit at the
very beginning or close to it because of
how a stealth segment was framed tuned
and was inconsistent with the rest of
the game it led to an experience that
was that frustrating now AP patch has
since fixed that but the point is it
launched the way that it did how many
players bounced off clearly quite a few
and this lesson obviously impacted
Shadows I think it's very clear they
expected something similar to happen now
they say the game is feature complete
but the based on Outlaws the game needs
more polish Vibes wise that makes sense
this is a game that has had multiple
different dramas swirling around it
since it's very unveiling I also would
wonder if pre-orders have overtime been
weak now back in May Tom Henderson who
runs Insider gaming and has got loads of
sources in the industry his people told
him multiple of them that pre-orders of
the game were strong but that was in May
I think since then things may have
changed and armed with the lesson and
the numbers of Outlaws they're learning
lessons what's happening now is that all
pre-orders of the game are cancelled and
refunded so I would love to see what
their payment processing fee is for that
one the reason why though is clear it's
because the product itself has changed
there is no season pass there is no
Advanced access and those are the two
things that defined the modern Ubisoft
special which was leveraging a powerful
psychological hook that is called the
Goldilocks effect what you do is you
have your base Edition just be what it
is you then have a very very expensive
maxed out Edition with some you know
knick-knacks like Cosmetics but in the
middle you've got the thing that you
actually want people to buy so their use
of the Goldilocks effect fact was
increasing their sale price $69.99 for
the bass version to
$19.99 for the version with the season
pass and of course that premium Early
Access the whole point is that you think
you're getting a great deal because
you're getting all of those extra perks
but obviously it isn't really it's a
great deal for Ubisoft that's because 6
months after release the base game will
be cheaper and you can just buy DLC if
you want to the Gold Edition never was a
good deal it was just leveraging the
Goldilocks effect very well conventional
logic then says that in doing this they
are sacrificing hundreds and hundreds of
millions of dollars and so if they're
doing that we know it must be
desperation now make no mistake average
sale price is still the goal but they're
going about it a different way this is
the new strategy anyone who pre-orders
shadows will get the first expansion for
free and that includes steam because yes
it is launching on Steam day one
pre-orders of course are amazing they
lock in that launch pricing and hey you
get a free expansion that is actually a
good incentive that's all to get people
back but to get them back at day one
pricing and for Ubisoft that narrative
shift with her audience matters take
Valhalla it's been a backbone of their
business it has actually done massive
numbers even though it's not the most
respected game at least based on its
launch what it's had is loads and loads
on loads of DLC it's a single player
live service basically the thing is
though you can't sell DLCs to people who
aren't there hence this situation with
shadows on the topic of Outlaws then
weak sales and soft reception basically
make it hard to justify future content I
mean if it's underperformed why spend
loads of money making DLC for it but of
course if you make that financially
prudent short-term decision what you do
is ensure that Outlaws never turns into
a long-term business like Valhalla did
so what they're doing now to try and
solve this situation is quote fully
mobilizing to address player feedback
and quality of life they're going to do
loads of patches and then on November
21st they're going to launch the first
expansion and launched the game on Steam
and hey it's even got Lando kissian I
mean very cool me personally I clapped
when I saw him in Disney Star Wars
Episode 9 rise of the Skywalker yeah
maybe it'll work but for some tone let's
hear things from the horse's mouth
here's a quote from EES gilmo CEO our
second quarter performance fell short of
our expectations prompting us to address
this swiftly and firmly with an even
greater focus on a player Centric
gameplay first approach and an
unwavering commitment to the long term
value of Our Brands yeah that's
absolutely regular CEO talk yes but
there's actually a deeper reason because
if you've read the shareholder letter
that I talked about last week you'll
actually see crossover and don't worry
that gives us a hell of a note to finish
today's video on strategically then what
we can anticipate is a spiritual second
launch of Outlaws basically big wave of
news big patch announcements deep
discounts and probably a bundle with the
EXP expansion so they can hit the
Christmas game playing audience pretty
hard and really it's all narrative if
you lose the narrative you've got a
negative multiplier on every single
thing that you do that means your
investment is just nerfed and that's why
even though this is dire and this is a
crisis for Ubisoft for us it's actually
good news it shows that you cannot
disregard your narrative that you cannot
do these sorts of things time and time
and time again without it actually
incurring a cost and taking at all and
for just a taste of how quickly they got
loned by reality as I record this video
going to the Ubisoft site you still see
the November release date for this game
you still see the old Gold Edition they
actually haven't even had enough time to
change their own website that's how
quick this has all went down so with
that said let's talk about the future
their plan and then the uh the skull
duggery and the massive opportunity
that's going to make some people a
shitload of money okay let's talk about
ubisoft's fate the strategy is pretty
damn clear increase average sale price
by juicing up day one sales but doing
that in a way that is more player
friendly and sets their franchises up
for good day one on long-term success
that's the plan now let's talk about
that shareholder Revolt you see the core
point of the activist investor who's
leading that is to do an Activision
stick to the big franchises only now you
can't do that if you kill those
franchises take Ghost Recon breakpoint
if you're Ubisoft right now it sure
would be lovely to be fresh off the back
of Ghost Recon wildlands talking about
the next Ghost Recon that's going to
continue to bring that franchise back
but no breakpoint killed it Far Cry ran
dry you just couldn't milk it anymore
Assassin's Creed is their King franchise
and that's why this happens with shadows
because if you kill Assassin's Creed
Ubisoft is finished and I'm going to put
the games aside strategic right they
need Safe products that means
eliminating risks so doing Advanced
access from a position of weakness is
risky not launching in the world's
largest gaming platform in day one is
risky so for all that they may think
that the village building and shadows or
the jewel protagonists with different
gameplay that that's innovating the game
or that Outlaws saying hey do you want
to play our game without yellow paint
and map icons as much as they might
think oh that's making our games better
well the hated commercial trends that
they've went to those have done damage
to the products meaning the games
themselves often don't matter now a
source at Ubisoft leaked an internal
memo to Insider gaming and in that memo
CEO EES gilmo said this in today's ultra
competitive market players expect
extraordinary experiences and Ultra
polished games on day one that's not
Outlaws we need to continue to improve
when it comes to fine-tuning our games
and delivering outstanding gameplay this
is what will enable Ubisoft to again
create the best games in the industry
and looking at that I think it's hard to
say that Eaves is wrong it's also insane
to think that none of this was obvious
years and years and years ago what it is
is the tcid admission of their place in
today's market which is actually a week
Market if you're a weak competitor in a
weak Market you're going to die UK game
sales are down 30% EU down 1.6% which
was a surprising difference to me either
they're perfect data and the same
methodology and the UK really is as
screwed as it seems to be and the
Germans just will never stop playing
RPGs Grand strategies and Sim games or
it's different methodologies that both
Point downwards even when we go to the
US a single digigit decline is actually
expected for the first half of 2024 and
that's shocking because of Hell divers 2
and EA college football which massively
propped those numbers up so my point is
everyone is going down by default it's a
vicious market so product strategy that
is designed to make the most money in a
time of Plenty will obviously be the
first to crumble and for the activist
investors eyeing up the company well
they know this doesn't work when you're
expensive seven and a half out of tens
are fighting everybody else's games
while your Critical Hits are uh you know
your small scale Sid scrollers so let me
explain how investors are going to and
plan to make a shitload of money from
this number one Ubisoft is cheap it's €9
so if you can buy it cheap and sell it
high you're going to make money how do
you get that stock price up then well
one way to do it is to have massive
successes and and all of that but you
can't guarantee a success what you can
do is sort of 8020 principle where
you're you comes from safer products
better long-term vision and most
importantly eliminate costs fire the nft
people fire the metaverse you can get
rid of that stupid goofy you can
then divest Studios sell them to other
people though unfortunately for them
there's not an embracer group ready to
gobble up everything in Europe anymore
and that means you can shut down some
studios you can reduce headcounts in
other Studios you can take the decision
making that led to hey we've got Tom
Clancy so let's do an extraction shooter
late a Cod competitor late a battle
royale late and the Myriad other strange
projects that just died you could stop
doing those stop pissing away your money
they will look at how Elon handled
Twitter they will inhale the smelling
salts of business they will look
lovingly at their picture of Paul Graham
they will touch it and they will whisper
to themselves it is time to engage
founder mode and if you know what that
is you know they'll ask themselves can
we run Assassin's Creed division Siege
and a select other few things while
reducing headcount by 40% now big
picture there's two ways to make money
here number one the stock goes up you
bought it cheap you can sell it high
happy happy but uh number two is almost
certainly what they want to do in my
opinion and that is to take Ubisoft
private to gain more control so what
they would do right is they would plan
changes they would you know establish a
thesis you would then fund taking the
company private with private Equity so
what that would involve is basically a
number per share and buying out the uh
the public shareholders in doing that
there would be way more control over the
company it wouldn't have to deal with
quarterly and all that tasty
private Equity could perhaps be put to
some work and hey maybe you can make it
a leveraged buyout so that Ubisoft
itself get saddled with loads of debt
and the private Equity people get to be
extra super mega happy now the thing is
the activist investor basically says
there have been opportunities to get
loads and loads of private Equity money
and they've basically said no now the
reason there is EES has done a lot to
ensure control over the company it's a
whole big long story but it's why him
and the deal with tensent give them
loads of control over the company and
yes to the point where this investor
wants to use EU law designed to protect
minority shareholders to crack open the
iron grip that e gilmo and tens Cent
have got for themselves over the company
and what's telling is the investor who's
leading this charge started increasing
their position in Ubisoft recently at
alltime lows they're not doing that
because they want to burn money they're
doing that because they think that
Ubisoft the financial asset can be
turned around and to understand that
fool's situation watch this video next
because in light of today's news it hits
so much harder
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