Kanlaon Volcano Update; Magmatic Eruption Likely, Record Gas Emissions
Summary
TLDRThe Kanlaon volcano in the Philippines is showing signs of potential eruption, possibly its first magmatic eruption since 1902. With unprecedented sulfur dioxide emissions and a significant increase in volcanic earthquakes, magma is likely at shallow depths. Although a strong vulcanian eruption with 10 km high plumes is possible, a smaller eruption remains more likely. Residents near the volcano are advised to stay vigilant due to risks of pyroclastic flows, ashfall, and lahars. An exclusion zone is in place, and further updates will depend on the volcano's ongoing activity.
Takeaways
- 🌋 Kanlaon volcano in the Philippines is at risk of a significant eruption, potentially its first magmatic eruption since 1902.
- ⚠️ A strong vulcanian eruption with 10 km high plumes is possible, although a smaller eruption is more likely.
- 💨 Sulfur dioxide emissions are setting record highs, with 11,556 tons recorded on September 11, 2024, indicating shallow magma below the surface.
- 👃 Citizens are detecting a strong sulfuric smell, suggesting the presence of hydrogen sulfide, although official measurements have not been released.
- 🛑 A 1 km-high degassing plume is now visible from Kanlaon’s summit, highlighting increased volcanic activity.
- 📊 Volcanic earthquakes spiked dramatically from 2 per day on September 5 to 337 on September 11, indicating the movement of magma.
- ⛑️ Kanlaon is currently at Alert Level 2 (on a scale of 0 to 5), and a 4 km exclusion zone is in place around the summit.
- 🌍 The volcano has shown signs of ground deformation since March 2022, a typical precursor to eruptions.
- 🌋 Phreatic eruptions, with smaller explosions, are likely to precede any larger magmatic eruption.
- 🌀 Potential hazards include pyroclastic flows, ashfall, gas emissions, lahars, and viscous lava flows, which could impact nearby residents on Negros Island.
Q & A
What is the current status of the Kanlaon volcano?
-Kanlaon volcano is currently at an alert level of 2 on a scale of 0 to 5, indicating increased volcanic unrest and potential for an eruption.
What kind of eruption is most likely to occur at Kanlaon volcano?
-A strong vulcanian eruption is most likely, characterized by eruption plumes up to 10 kilometers high. However, a smaller eruption is still the most probable outcome.
What evidence suggests that magma is at shallow depths beneath Kanlaon volcano?
-Extremely high sulfur dioxide emissions, which have broken records in recent weeks, suggest that magma is at a depth of less than a kilometer below the surface.
How high were sulfur dioxide emissions on September 11th, 2024?
-On September 11th, 2024, Kanlaon volcano emitted 11,556 tons of sulfur dioxide, an extremely high level for a volcano that is not actively erupting.
What are the residents near Kanlaon reporting in terms of volcanic activity?
-Residents near Kanlaon are reporting a strong volcanic smell, specifically the rotten egg smell of hydrogen sulfide, which is characteristic of volcanic activity.
What seismic activity has been recorded at Kanlaon in early September 2024?
-Volcanic earthquakes increased dramatically from 2 per day on September 5th to 337 per day on September 11th, indicating heightened magma movement.
What past eruption patterns have been observed at Kanlaon?
-Previous eruptions have been preceded by increased volcanic earthquakes (more than 10 daily), over 100 earthquakes in one day, and ground deformation indicating magma movement.
What risks are associated with a potential Kanlaon eruption?
-Risks include pyroclastic flows, ashfall, gas emissions, lahars, and possibly viscous lava flows up to 40 meters high, which could impact nearby residents.
Why is there a 4-kilometer exclusion zone around Kanlaon’s summit?
-The exclusion zone is in place because even weak phreatic eruptions, which involve steam and gases, can produce lethal pyroclastic flows and pose significant danger.
What should people living near Kanlaon be aware of in the coming weeks?
-Residents within 20 kilometers of Kanlaon and near drainage areas should be vigilant for possible eruptive activity, as signs indicate that an eruption could occur soon.
Outlines
🌋 Impending Eruption at Kanlaon Volcano
The Kanlaon volcano in the Philippines may soon experience a significant eruption, possibly its first magmatic eruption since 1902. While not expected to be a plinian or subplinian eruption, a strong vulcanian eruption with 10 km high plumes is possible. However, a smaller eruption remains the most likely scenario given current unrest. Sulfur dioxide emissions have set all-time records, reaching 11,556 tons per day as of September 11th, 2024, indicating magma is likely less than a kilometer beneath the surface. Residents are reporting a strong sulfuric smell, though official hydrogen sulfide measurements are unavailable.
🌫️ High Gas Emissions and Volcanic Earthquakes
A strong degassing plume has emerged from Kanlaon's summit, and volcanic earthquakes, driven by magma movement, have drastically increased. The rate jumped from 2 earthquakes daily on September 5th to 337 on September 11th. This sudden rise in activity suggests that a volcanic eruption may be imminent. Though some magma intrusions do not result in eruptions, the extremely high gas emissions at Kanlaon make it less likely for this activity to subside without an eruption.
📉 Warning Signs from Past Eruptions
Historical eruptions at Kanlaon have been preceded by specific warning signs, such as multiple days with over 10 volcanic earthquakes, single days with over 100 earthquakes, and noticeable ground deformation. Recent activity mirrors these patterns, with 8 days in the last month recording more than 10 earthquakes and ground uplift noted since March 2022. These signs suggest an eruption may soon occur, which is why Kanlaon is currently at Alert Level 2 on a 0-5 scale.
🚨 Exclusion Zone and Potential Hazards
A 4-kilometer exclusion zone is currently in place around Kanlaon’s summit due to the threat of phreatic eruptions, which could trigger deadly pyroclastic flows. Any eruption is expected to start with smaller phreatic explosions before potentially evolving into a magmatic event. Residents within a 20-kilometer radius and near drainage areas originating from Kanlaon should remain vigilant in the coming weeks and months.
🏞️ Potential Impacts and Preparedness
If an eruption occurs, various hazards such as pyroclastic flows, ashfall, gas emissions, lahars, and lava flows could affect Negros Island's residents. While hoping not to report an eruption, the possibility remains. Local residents are urged to stay safe and prepared for possible volcanic activity.
🙏 Special Thanks to a Supporter
The video concludes with a thank you to Kelin Nott, a new patron who supports the channel.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Kanlaon Volcano
💡Magmatic Eruption
💡Vulcanian Eruption
💡Phreatic Eruption
💡Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) Emissions
💡Pyroclastic Flows
💡Volcanic Earthquakes
💡Hydrogen Sulfide
💡Lahars
💡Volcanic Exclusion Zone
Highlights
Kanlaon volcano in the Philippines is at risk of producing a significant eruption, potentially its first magmatic eruption since 1902.
The most likely outcome is still a smaller eruption, despite the potential for a strong vulcanian eruption with 10 km high eruption plumes.
Sulfur dioxide emissions have set all-time records in the last month, reaching 11,556 tons a day on September 11, 2024.
High sulfur dioxide levels suggest magma is at shallow depths, potentially less than a kilometer below ground.
Numerous citizens have reported a strong rotten egg smell, characteristic of hydrogen sulfide, near the volcano.
The most likely hydrogen sulfide concentrations near Kanlaon are estimated to be below 1 part per million.
A strong degassing plume has emerged, rising a kilometer above Kanlaon's summit crater.
Volcanic earthquakes have spiked significantly, from 2 per day on September 5 to 337 per day on September 11.
Kanlaon's past eruptions were preceded by several warning signs, including days with over 10 volcanic earthquakes and short- or long-term ground deformation.
In the last month, 8 days have seen over 10 volcanic tectonic earthquakes, with 337 on September 11.
Ground deformation has been observed at different parts of the volcano since March 2022, March 2023, and July 2024.
Kanlaon is currently at an alert level 2 (on a scale of 0-5) with a 4 km exclusion zone around the summit.
Even weak phreatic eruptions from Kanlaon can generate lethal pyroclastic flows, necessitating the exclusion zone.
An eruption would likely be preceded by weak phreatic explosions before a truly magmatic event.
Residents within a 20 km radius and near drainages originating from Kanlaon should stay alert for potential impacts from pyroclastic flows, ashfall, lahars, and lava flows.
Transcripts
The Kanlaon volcano in the Philippines is at Frisk of soon producing a significant eruption,
potentially even its first truly magmatic eruption since 1902. Now, to alleviate some fears I am not
talking about a plinian or subplinian eruption, but do consider a potential for a strong vulcanian
eruption with 10 kilometer high eruption plumes to occur. However, a smaller eruption, assuming one
does end up occurring due to the current unrest is still the most likely outcome. Magma in my
opinion is clearly at shallow depths, resulting in what has repeatedly set all time records in sulfur
dioxide emissions at this volcano. These daily gas emission records have been repeatedly broken
during the last month, and most recently reached an emission of 11,556 tons a day on September
11th 2024. That is a stunningly high figure for a volcano which is not actively erupting,
and such high levels indicate a likelihood of abundant magma at a depth of less than a
kilometer below ground. I have received numerous firsthand and secondhand reports of concerned
citizens living near this volcano on Negros Island who for the first time in their lives are
detecting a strong and distinctive volcanic smell, specifically the rotten egg smell characteristic
of hydrogen sulfide levels of between 4.7 parts per billion and 100 parts per million. While no
official gas measurements of hydrogen sulfide have been made around the volcano, or if they
have been made they have not been made public, the most likely concentrations are below the 1
part per million range. Regardless, my point is that both physical evidence from instrumentation
and circumstantial evidence from people support that highly unusual, once in a lifetime activity
is occurring at the Kanlaon volcano. Alongside this, a strong degassing plume
has emerged, rising a kilometer above Kanlaon's 2,465 meter or 8,087 foot high summit crater.
Volcanic earthquakes, largely related to the movement of magma have jumped from a daily rate
of 2 on September 5th to 37 on September 10th to 337 on September 11th. While this sudden spike
in activity could be resolved with no eruption occurring as most magmatic intrusions do fail
before they reach the surface and produce an eruption, such absurdly high gas emissions
make this less likely of an outcome. If we look at Kanlaon's past eruption
since 1902, they have largely been preceded by the following warning signs in the month beforehand;
multiple days with more than 10 daily volcano tectonic earthquakes, a day with more than 100
volcano tectonic earthquakes, and the occurrence of short or long term ground deformation with
this signal directly indicating the movement or subsurface buildup of magma. Well, in the
last month 8 days have had more than 10 volcano tectonic earthquakes, September 11th saw 337
volcano tectonic earthquakes occur, and separate portions of the volcano have been experiencing
uplift since March 2022, 2023, and July of 2024. So, once again the data is pointing towards
the potential for an eruption to soon occur. This is why the Kanlaon volcano is currently
at an alert level of 2 on a 0 to 5 scale, and why there is currently a 4 kilometer
exclusion zone in place in all directions around Kanlaon's summit. Even weak phreatic
eruptions can generate lethal pyroclastic flows. Any eruption, were once to occur,
would probably not involve a massive catastrophic event without preceding eruptive activity.
Instead, it would be probably preceded by weak phreatic eruptions, with dozens of explosions
occurring before any lava flow is emitted or truly magmatic eruption component occurs.
I need those of you who live within a 20 kilometer radius of this volcano, and those of you who live
adjacent to drainages which originate from Kanlaon's edifice to pay special attention to
what occurs during the next few weeks to months. Were an eruption to soon occur, pyroclastic flows,
ashfall, strong gas emissions, lahars, and even viscous 10 to 40 meter high andesite
lava flows have the potential to directly impact some of Negros Island's residents.
I really hope that I do not have to soon give an update discussing an eruption from Mount Kanlaon,
but this could soon end up occurring anyways. Please stay safe everyone. As a final note,
I would like to thank my new patron Kelin Nott for supporting this channel!
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