Systems Thinking | 6 mental models to add to your thinking toolbox
Summary
TLDRIn this educational video, Vicki introduces six mental models for systems thinking to help viewers understand complex problems holistically. She explains the importance of recognizing non-linear relationships, using the example of a farm's ecosystem to illustrate how interconnected elements can create sustainable solutions. The video covers models such as stock and flow, the iceberg model for identifying underlying systems, bottleneck analysis, second-order thinking for predicting outcomes, and establishing feedback loops for continuous improvement.
Takeaways
- 🧠 Systems thinking involves viewing problems as a whole and understanding the connections between different parts, rather than just analyzing individual components.
- 🔄 Linear thinking is straightforward and sequential, while non-linear thinking recognizes the cyclical and interconnected nature of systems.
- 🌿 The documentary 'The Biggest Little Farm' exemplifies non-linear systems, showing how introducing biodiversity to a farm created a series of interconnected problems and solutions.
- 📊 The 'Stock and Flow' model is crucial for understanding systems, distinguishing between the elements within a system (stock) and the processes that change those elements (flow).
- ⛰ The 'Iceberg Model' helps identify different levels of reality in a system: events, patterns, systems structure, and mental models.
- 🔎 To find the root cause of issues within a system, look for the bottlenecks that are the weakest links causing delays or blockages.
- 🤔 'Second-order thinking' involves considering the implications and consequences of first-order actions, moving beyond immediate effects to anticipate further outcomes.
- 🔁 'Feedback loops' are essential for systems improvement, providing data to understand whether actions are moving the system towards its goals.
- 📈 Setting up a feedback loop involves defining goals, articulating assumptions, and choosing measurements that align with those assumptions to track progress.
- 🌱 The example of a farm's transition to sustainable practices illustrates how systems thinking can lead to innovative solutions that leverage existing resources within the system.
Q & A
What is the main idea presented in the script?
-The main idea is the importance of systems thinking, which involves understanding problems as a whole and identifying the cause rather than just treating the symptoms.
What are the six mental models discussed in the script?
-The six mental models are: 1) Linear vs. Non-linear Organization, 2) Stock and Flow, 3) Iceberg Model, 4) Finding the Bottleneck, 5) Second Order Thinking, and 6) Building a Feedback Loop.
How does the script define linear thinking?
-Linear thinking is defined as reducing things down to a sequence of if-then statements, where one event leads to another in a predictable, sequential manner.
What is the example of non-linear thinking given in the script?
-The example of non-linear thinking is the cycle of a, feeds into b, which feeds into c, which then feeds into a, creating a cycle instead of a straight line.
What is the documentary mentioned in the script that exemplifies non-linear thinking?
-The documentary mentioned is 'The Biggest Little Farm', which follows a couple trying to bring a farm back to life through biodiversity and sustainable farming.
How does the script explain the Stock and Flow mental model?
-Stock and Flow is explained as understanding systems in two parts: stock (things in the system that can be added or subtracted) and flow (actions that change the number of stock).
What does the Iceberg Model represent in systems thinking?
-The Iceberg Model represents the four levels of realities seen by a systems thinker: events, patterns of behavior, systems, and mental models.
What is the significance of finding the bottleneck in a system?
-Finding the bottleneck is significant because it identifies the weakest part or delay in a system, which is crucial for improving the overall system's performance.
How does second order thinking differ from first order thinking?
-Second order thinking differs from first order thinking by considering the implications of the first order actions, looking beyond the immediate consequences to potential secondary effects.
What is the purpose of building a feedback loop in systems thinking?
-Building a feedback loop is to design a system that provides information and data to understand if progress is being made towards a goal, allowing for continuous improvement.
How does the script suggest applying mental models in decision making?
-The script suggests applying mental models in decision making by tracking the models used, assessing the quality of decisions made, and learning from the outcomes to improve future decision-making processes.
Outlines
🌐 Understanding Systems Thinking
The paragraph introduces the concept of systems thinking, contrasting it with the more common reductionist approach. It emphasizes the importance of viewing the world as a whole rather than in parts, highlighting Aristotle's quote that 'the whole is more than the sum of its parts.' The speaker, Vicki, explains how systems thinking uses six mental models to understand problems holistically and identify root causes rather than just treating symptoms. The first mental model discussed is the linear versus non-linear organization of thinking. Linear thinking is straightforward, with a clear sequence of cause and effect, while non-linear thinking recognizes the dynamic interconnections and cycles in the world. An example from a Netflix documentary, 'The Biggest Little Farm,' illustrates non-linear thinking in action, showing how a couple transformed a depleted farm into a thriving ecosystem through biodiversity and understanding the interdependencies between different elements of the farm.
🌱 Stock and Flow: Simplifying Complex Systems
This section delves into the second mental model: stock and flow. Stocks represent the static elements within a system that can be quantified, such as animals, plants, and money on a farm. Flows, on the other hand, are the dynamic actions that change the quantity of stocks, like selling lemons which decreases the lemon stock and increases the money. The paragraph uses the farm example to illustrate how understanding the relationship between stocks and flows can simplify complex systems. It also introduces the iceberg model, the third mental model, which identifies four levels of realities: events, patterns of behavior, systems, and mental models. The iceberg model encourages looking beyond immediate events to understand underlying patterns, systemic structures, and the mental models that shape them. The farm's struggle with snails and other pests is used to demonstrate how treating symptoms (events) is less effective than addressing the systemic causes.
🐌 Finding the Bottleneck: Strengthening Weakest Links
The third paragraph focuses on the fourth mental model, finding the bottleneck, which is about identifying the weakest part of a system that制约s its overall performance. The paragraph discusses how the farm's profitability was hindered by multiple issues, with pest destruction of crops being the most significant. It introduces the 80/20 rule as a tool for prioritizing problems and emphasizes the importance of addressing the primary bottleneck to enhance the system's performance. The speaker also mentions the need for temporal perspective when identifying bottlenecks, suggesting that delays in profit were a key concern for the farm.
🤔 Second Order Thinking: Anticipating Unintended Consequences
This section introduces the fifth mental model, second order thinking, which involves considering the implications of first order actions. While first order thinking is linear and immediate, second order thinking involves predicting the subsequent effects of actions. The paragraph uses the example of planting cover crops to enrich soil, which, while beneficial, also attracts pests. Second order thinking involves anticipating these effects and preparing for them. The speaker advises asking three key questions to practice second order thinking: what are the likely outcomes, which outcome do you expect, and what is the probability of your expectation being correct. This model is presented as a tool for making more informed decisions and learning from their outcomes.
🔁 Building Feedback Loops: Continuous Improvement
The final paragraph discusses the sixth mental model, building feedback loops, which is crucial for continuous improvement and adaptation. The speaker explains the importance of defining goals, articulating assumptions, and choosing measurements to track progress towards those goals. Using the farm's struggle with pests and soil fertility as examples, the paragraph illustrates how feedback loops can provide clear indicators of whether interventions are successful. The speaker also extends this concept to personal goals, such as clarifying thinking to make better decisions, and suggests setting up a decision journal to track and assess the use of mental models in decision-making processes.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Systems Thinking
💡Linear vs. Non-linear Organization
💡Stock and Flow
💡Iceberg Model
💡Bottleneck
💡Second Order Thinking
💡Feedback Loop
💡Mental Models
💡Anti-fragility
💡Interconnectedness
Highlights
The importance of systems thinking in understanding the world as a whole rather than in parts.
The contrast between linear and non-linear thinking and how the latter better represents the dynamic world.
An example of non-linear thinking in the documentary 'The Biggest Little Farm'.
The cycle of interconnections in a farm ecosystem as depicted in the documentary.
How introducing biodiversity to a farm led to a series of interconnected problems.
The realization that solving problems on a farm involves understanding the interconnections, not just isolated issues.
The introduction of the second mental model: stock and flow, which simplifies systems into two parts.
The explanation of 'stock' as the elements in a system that can be added or subtracted.
The definition of 'flow' as the actions that change the number of stock in a system.
The iceberg model, which identifies four levels of realities in systems thinking.
The concept of treating the cause, not just the symptoms, by understanding deeper system structures.
The role of mental models in shaping the structure and behavior of a system.
The process of finding the bottleneck in a system to identify the weakest part that needs improvement.
The 80/20 rule as a tool for prioritizing the most significant bottlenecks in a system.
Second order thinking as a method to predict the implications of first order actions.
The importance of building a feedback loop to understand if actions are moving the system towards its goal.
Practical steps to set up a feedback loop, including defining goals, assumptions, and measurements.
The application of mental models in decision making and the use of decision journals for assessment.
Transcripts
there are two ways of looking at the
world in parts or as a whole now most of
us have been trained to think in parts
right take something complex break it
down into its individual components
study each in order to understand what
is happening in the more complex worlds
our schools are set up this way we have
subjects like english math biology
chemistry physics and we look into each
one of them in order to understand what
the world is like but as aristotle says
the whole is more than the sum of its
parts and usually it's in the connection
between the different subjects between
the different parts the relationships
between those that really signifies how
something actually works so that's where
systems thinking come in we'll use six
mental models to understand problem as a
whole as well as identify the cause and
not just treat the symptoms
hi everyone it's vicki if you're new
here i talk about clear thinking clear
communications through frameworks and
mental models and today we'll kick-start
these six mental models in system
thinking with the first one which is
linear versus non-linear organization
now in linear thinking which most of us
are very familiar with it's reducing
things down to if then so if a happens
and then b happens and then c happens so
this is kind of what excel spreadsheets
are built to be like where we move in
sequence and everything is linear but as
we know the world is not like that the
world is very dynamic things affect each
other all the time and it's really hard
to pin something down into a very linear
fashion a non-linear way of thinking
could be that a feeds into b which feeds
into c which then feeds into a so it
becomes more of a cycle instead of a
than b than c there's a documentary on
netflix that's actually a really good
non-linear example of how the world
organizes itself it's called the biggest
little farm it follows a couple molly
and john with their dog moving from l.a
to a farm that used to be used for
exclusive berry farming single planting
of the berries farm sucked all of the
nutrients out of the farm so the couple
is trying to bring the farm back to life
and introduce biodiversity so they have
more sustainable organic farming that
feeds the local community for example
they will plant cover crops like citrus
trees where they will be able to bring
more nutrients and water back into the
soil that used to be felt but they
quickly realized that these cover crops
then attracted pests like snails that
infested their whole cover crop garden
they also raised farm animals like cows
and sheep in order to use the manure to
give nutrients to the fallow soil but
then the manure attracted a huge fly
overpopulation and they didn't know what
to do with that they also had a pond
with ducks and fish and everyone was
getting along swimmingly but then a
drought hit and the duck droppings into
the pond that has less water now
created toxic algae which then killed
the fish and so molly and john realized
that all these parts weren't working
separately they were working together
it's not a linear problem when they
realized that there's actually
interconnection between all of these
seemingly separate problems they were
able to resolve it really easily and
quickly for example the chickens they
bought to lay eggs to sell at the
farmers market turns out they really
like to eat the maggots in the manure
that turned into fly which contained
their flyover population the ducks are
creating the problem in the pond with
the toxic algae well it turns out that
they really love to eat the snails that
were infesting the cover crops and
because they came on land then their
droppings actually became fertilizer for
the cover crop rather than poisoning the
fish in the pond many systems are
actually organically anti-fragile and
all we need to do is see the
interconnectedness so we can allow the
solution to happen so a quick exercise
is to draw non-linear connections
between different elements of a system
that you're working with instead of
linearly thinking about things like one
then two then three then fourth and five
put them out on a page and start to see
if there are any interconnections
between all the different elements of
your problem now you might be thinking
wait a second this sounds pretty
complicated what do i do how do i even
know what to put on the paper in order
to map out non-linear processes well
that actually leads to mental model
number two stock and flow this is
understanding systems in just two parts
stock and flow so let's take the stock
first which are the things in the system
that can be added or subtracted so in
the example of the farm this is the
animals the humans the plants the soil
the water right the money that's being
made these are the things that make up
the farm all of them can be added or
subtracted then there's the flow so
these are the actions that change the
number of stock so in the farm example
selling something is flow let's say you
sell lemons right so you by selling the
lemon you decrease the amount of lemons
and you increase the amount of money
made by the farm so selling here is the
flow this will help you simplify the
world there are only two things you need
to look at right the stock are the
things and the flow connects the things
together
now you might say that sounds really
simple and probably everyone can do it
so what is the competitive advantage i
can have by thinking in systems and to
that we move on to number three the
iceberg model the iceberg model
identifies the four levels of realities
you are seeing as a systems thinker one
event two patterns of behavior three
systems and four mental models most of
us only see events happening in the firm
example it's a simple to see the event
right there are snails on the citrus
tree that is the problem so let's pick
off the snails and this is classic
treating the symptoms not the cause it's
easy to do but the problems usually come
back so we look deeper to the second
level which is the patterns of behavior
and here we add the element of time so
over an extended period of time what has
been happening what is the pattern now
for the farm molly and john keeps on
seeing that every time they introduce
something there's always a problem every
time they introduce another solution
there is a new problem so looks like
there's something structural going on
here and that's the next level systems
right what are the structures in place
that connect everything together what's
causing the patterns and for the farm
the structure is biodiversity
john and molly wanted to introduce
biodiversity sustainable farming or
organic farming to that fallow farm and
by introducing biodiversity they kept on
creating new problems because every time
they introduce something new there's new
prey and there's new predators so
naturally you ask why is biodiversity a
structure of this farm right and that
takes us to level number four mental
models i've introduced mental models in
more detail in these videos here and
i'll link them in the description so you
can check them out later but here let's
just summarize that with what are the
assumptions what are the beliefs what
are the values that's shaping this
system and for the farm the mental
models use our biodiversity is going to
create sustainable organic farming that
help us humans live in harmony with
nature instead of trying to control the
environment and there lies the clue to
the solution of all the problems of the
snail investigations
of the flyover population of the duck
droppings in the pond right is that
you're not supposed to control
the environment it's not about how do
you control the snail population right
it's looking for how nature deals with
snails which turns out to be the ducks
that are already on the farm right that
likes to eat these snails and by just
making that connection
instead of hiring full-time staff who
goes by hand picking these snails off
the trees they have ducks doing the work
for them for free and fertilizing the
soil at the same time and that's because
you've gone and analyzed the four levels
of realities coming to the end of the
mental models which help you understand
the cause of the problem and not just
fix the symptoms so now you might be
thinking okay everything makes sense in
theory but where do i even start you
know how do i find that event first that
helps me then analyze the next three
levels where do i start and that brings
us to mental model number four finding
the bottleneck the system is only as
strong as its weakest part and i've
talked about this in this video here
that you can check out later but quick
summary you want to be looking for the
bottlenecks of a system a place where
things get stuck and there is delay
again you are putting things in your
perspective with time so for the farm
let's look for the bottleneck right
bottleneck is delay and here is you know
turning a profit on the farm what is
delaying them profiting from all of the
crops all of the animals that they've
raised now it turns out on the farm 70
of their crops are destroyed by pests
and at a glance this wasn't the only
problem right they had chickens that
laid eggs that were super popular at the
farmers market but they just didn't have
enough chickens to sell more eggs to
fulfill the demand so also that's
slowing down profit also is the soil not
being fertile enough to plant more crop
that's also a problem also they don't
have enough talent that knew enough
about biodiversity in farming so that's
also slowing them down so while there
are many problems that exist you want to
find the bottom neck right the weakest
link in the chain and with all of the
problems the biggest one is the pests
that's destroying 70 of the crop and you
may need the 80 20 rule or some other
mental model to help you prioritize
which problem is your biggest bottleneck
i won't talk about it here you can check
out this video on 80 20 rule if you're
interested now let's say you've
identified the bottleneck right you've
used the iceberg model you've used the
non-linear organizational thinking
you've applied the stock and flow the
next question is the solutions that i'm
coming up which one should i go for how
can i tell if the changes i want to make
is going to have the intended effect
because again right things are
interconnected things are complicated
how do i know and i've got you covered
with mental model number five which is
second order thinking most of us think
in first order right if i do this then
this other thing happens right linear
thinking sounds familiar right but we
want to move beyond that and go to
second order thinking second order
thinking is about finding the
implications to the first order actions
so let's go back to that farm example
right first order thinking would be the
soil is fallow there are new nutrients
there so if i plant cover crops that
will help bring back nutrients and water
into the soil second order thinking
though is okay the soil is fallow right
we want to plant cover crops to bring
back the nutrients and water what will
happen then right that will change the
environment which means what we'll
probably get bugs and critters in the
soil right now that is healthier and
what else right snails tend to like
cover crop the citrus trees that they're
thinking about so if it's likely that by
planting cover crops that you'll get
some pests you have to be prepared for
that and that's second order thinking
now clearly this is not something that
you just dream of right if you didn't
know anything about biodiversity and
farming and soil you probably wouldn't
know what the pests are what might
happen but that's the point is that
because most people don't have that
knowledge they just stop at first order
thinking and then i'll deal with
whatever happens next
but if you start to think in second
order you can start to know what to
google what to find out type in what
kind of pests do citrus trees attract
google won't give you all the answers by
thinking the second order you actually
find direction as to what you need to
know more about now the questions you
want to ask yourself first is what are
the likely outcome now if you find
yourself unable to answer this question
it probably means this decision is built
on very shallow knowledge right and you
have to question am i really making the
right decision by trying an action that
i don't even know what might be the
outcome right that is a big signal for
you now the second question is out of
all the possible outcomes that may
happen which one do i think will occur
again this is helping you test right
where do i things things will go what do
i know about this that leads me to
thinking that and if i don't know right
is a signal for you to find either more
information find someone who's
knowledgeable in the field to help you
make that decision now the third
question is what is the probability that
i'm right again it helps you test how
much do i know how much am i willing to
bet on these because usually when we
make these type of changes these
implement these solutions they're not
free so by knowing how confident you are
with this it not only helps you make the
decision that it also helps you when you
come back to look at it and see okay i
was really confident but i was actually
wrong so what was the missing piece that
i didn't see before or i'm not very
confident i come back and review and i i
see it worked why did it work right it
helps you create feedback for how you
make decisions next time so second order
thinking is really helpful for you to
see the moving parts and help you start
to make decisions and be able to assess
what you've done afterwards there's
nothing more helpful than seeing blind
spots within a complex system which
brings me to mental model number six is
building a feedback loop this is about
designing a system so that you have
information and data that helps you
understand if you're moving closer to
your goal and we've come full circle
this is all about non-linear
organization instead of saying a then b
then c we're trying to talk about right
a feeds into b which feeds into c which
feeds back into a so we can by
improving things we're improving the
whole system now in the farm the
measurements and the improvements were
quite obvious right they were measuring
their crop output the progress of it so
whenever they see a problem like snail
infestation gophers eating the roots
they knew exactly what was happening and
by improving those they could see
progress but in business and in life the
measurements might be less clear if your
goal is to clarify your thinking what
are the best measurements to identify
whether you're moving closer to that
goal it's a lot more complex so the
steps to set up a feedback loop for
something
less obvious is one to define your goal
right you need to know what you want to
move towards and this will set the scene
for everything else to come number two
is articulate the assumptions you have
about how you can get to that goal this
is crucial because it will help you set
up the measurements let's say if you
assumed that meditation will help me
think clear then the measurements you
use are going to be very different if
you assume that using mental models will
help you get to clarifying your thinking
then once you know your assumptions you
go to number three which is choose the
measurements that work for your
assumptions so let's take the example of
wanting to clarify your thinking right
so first let's look at the goal what are
you trying to do with clarifying your
thinking let's say it's to make better
decisions right then number one your
goal is to
clarify your thinking in order to make
better decisions now let's move on to
number two which is identifying the
assumptions right say that you think
frameworks and mental models are going
to help you do that then also you think
that okay in order to make better
decisions i need to track my decision
right okay that's another assumption
that we want to put in there with that
let's move on to number three which is
coming up with the measurements right
let's say for the mental models that are
going to help you shape your thinking
you think that okay i need to have more
mental models in my toolbox the more i
have the more i'm going to be able to
use them together so number one then is
you want to track how many mental models
you know then you also want to track
your decisions right in this case then
you can come up with some sort of
decision journal that requires you to
come back let's say three months later
six months later in order for you to
assess
how well did you make that decision the
feedback loop can look something like
this one you learn metamodels right and
then you keep track of how many mental
models you've learned then when you make
decisions you want to track the mental
models you've used in that decision
making process to maybe a decision
journey
then once you've done that you want to
be able to come back and assess how good
was your decision making right the
mental models you've used were they
helpful were they the right ones so
let's say you set a timeline for
assessing them three months six months
when you make the assessment you can
then see if the decision was a good one
which mental models were helpful if this
decision wasn't a good one what was the
gap between the mental models i use and
the situation and then that will help
you learn more mental models and apply
them in your life this is actually what
i'm doing with my decision making
process and how i'm making sure i'm
applying the right mental models over
time so i'll do another video on
decision journals specifically designed
to use mental models
i've updated since i've created this
video here
so i'll share with you how you can
practically apply mental models in your
decision making if you've learned
something new in this video make sure to
give it a thumbs up
subscribe if you haven't already and i
will see you in the next video bye
Voir Plus de Vidéos Connexes
The Systems Iceberg Explained
Why Systems Thinking Is The Future Of Problem Solving
Systems Thinking 101 | Anna Justice | TEDxFurmanU
Systems Thinking: A Little Film About a Big Idea | Introduction to Cabrera Research Lab
Systems Thinking Ep. 1: Lists & Models (Learn to think like a genius)
Iceberg model
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)