Rate cuts will end in disaster. Repeat of 2007 happening now.
Summary
TLDRIn einem historischen Schritt hat die US-Notenbank (FED) die Zinsen um 50 Basispunkte gesenkt. Das Video erklärt, dass Zinssenkungen oft ein Vorzeichen für eine Rezession sind, wie 10 der letzten 14 Zinssenkungszyklen zeigen. Obwohl dies die Kreditkosten senkt, reagiert der Immobilienmarkt kaum, da Hauskäufer trotz sinkender Hypothekenzinsen wenig Interesse zeigen. Der Autor warnt davor, dass viele auf die FED-Zinssenkungen setzen, um die Wirtschaft zu stabilisieren, aber die aktuellen Daten deuten darauf hin, dass dies möglicherweise nicht ausreicht, um eine Wirtschaftskrise zu verhindern.
Takeaways
- 📉 Die Federal Reserve hat die Zinssätze um 50 Basispunkte gesenkt, was auf eine signifikante wirtschaftliche Veränderung hinweist.
- 🏠 Die Senkung der Zinssätze könnte zu einer Erwartung führen, dass der Immobilienmarkt und die Wirtschaft sich in den nächsten 3 bis 6 Monaten stark verändern werden.
- ⚠️ Historisch gesehen, wenn die FED Zinssätze senkt, ist dies oft ein Zeichen dafür, dass eine Rezession bevorsteht.
- 📰 Ein Artikel aus dem September 2007, kurz vor dem großen Finanzkrach, zeigte, wie die FED Zinssätze senkte und die Märkte kurzfristig anstiegen, was jedoch nicht auf eine langfristige Besserung hindeutete.
- 📊 Eine Umfrage ergab, dass 91% der Befragten angeben, dass eine Senkung der Hypothekenraten sie nicht dazu bringen wird, ein Haus zu kaufen, was auf eine geringe Reaktion auf die Zinssenkung hindeutet.
- 📉 Die Hypothekenantragszahlen zeigen eine geringfügige Erholung, aber sind im Vergleich zum Vorjahr immer noch niedrig, was auf eine geringe Nachfrage nach Immobilien hinweist.
- 📊 Die wirtschaftlichen Indikatoren zeigen ein gemischtes Bild, wobei einige stark sind, wie z.B. das Bruttoinlandsprodukt und die Konsumausgaben, während andere wie der Arbeitslosenquote und die Fertigungs-PMI schwach sind.
- 💡 Die FED hat vorhergesagt, dass es weitere Zinssenkungen von insgesamt 50 Basispunkten bis Ende des Jahres geben wird, was zu einer weiteren Senkung der Hypothekenraten führen könnte.
- 🏢 Die wachsenden Immobilienpreise sind ein größeres Problem für Käufer als die Hypothekenraten, was darauf hindeutet, dass eine signifikante Preissenkung notwendig sein könnte, um den Kaufinteresse zu wecken.
- 🔍 Der Autor wird weiterhin wöchentlich Daten über den Immobilienmarkt verfolgen, um ein besseres Verständnis der Nachfrage nach Immobilien zu erhalten.
Q & A
Warum hat die Federal Reserve Zinssätze um 50 Basispunkte gesenkt?
-Die Federal Reserve hat Zinssätze gesenkt, um die Wirtschaft und den Immobilienmarkt anzukurbeln, da historisch gesehen, Zinsschnitte ein Zeichen dafür sind, dass eine Rezession bevorsteht.
Was ist die historische Bedeutung von Zinssenkungen durch die Federal Reserve?
-Historisch gesehen, haben Zinssenkungen häufig ein Zeichen für eine kommende Rezession darstellen, da in 10 von 14 Fällen, in denen die Federal Reserve in einen Zinssenkungszyklus eintrat, eine Rezession folgte.
Wie reagierte der Aktienmarkt auf die Zinssenkung von 2007?
-Nach der Zinssenkung von 2007 reagierte der Aktienmarkt positiv, mit dem NASDAQ, das um 2,7% stieg, und dem S&P, der um 3% schloss, was jedoch nicht auf eine nachhaltige positive Entwicklung hindeutete.
Was ist das Hauptproblem, das die Käufer von Immobilien abhält, trotz niedrigerer Zinssätze?
-Trotz niedrigerer Zinssätze scheinen die Immobilienpreise das Hauptproblem für Käufer zu sein, da sie weit über dem langfristigen Durchschnitt liegen und ein Bubble signalisieren.
Wie hat sich die Stimmung der Käufer in Bezug auf den Immobilienkauf geändert, als die Mortgage-Rate auf 6,1% gesunken ist?
-Die Umfrage zeigt, dass 91% der Befragten angeben, dass eine Senkung der Mortgage-Rate auf 6,1% sie nicht dazu bringt, ein Haus zu kaufen, was auf eine starke Unentschlossenheit hindeutet.
Wie wirken sich Zinssenkungen auf die Wirtschaft aus?
-Zinssenkungen machen Kredite günstiger, was die Verbraucher entlastet, da Mortgage-, Autokredit- und Kreditkartenzinsen sinken. Dies kann die Nachfrage steigern, wenn die Käufer bereit sind, aufzunehmen.
Was zeigt die aktuelle Mortgage-Antragstatistik über das Interesse am Immobilienkauf?
-Die Mortgage-Antragstatistik zeigt, dass es trotz niedrigerer Mortgage-Raten nur minimale bis keine Erholung des Kaufinteresses gibt, was auf eine Schwächung des Marktes hindeutet.
Wie beurteilt der Sprecher die wirtschaftlichen Indikatoren für die Zukunft der US-Wirtschaft?
-Der Sprecher sieht eine gemischte Lage, mit einigen starken Indikatoren wie Inflation und GDP-Verbrauch, aber auch Schwächen in Bereichen wie Arbeitslosenquote und persönliche Ersparnisse, was auf eine absehbare Verschlechterung der Wirtschaft deutet.
Was prognostiziert die Federal Reserve für die weitere Entwicklung der Zinssätze?
-Die Federal Reserve prognostiziert weitere Zinssenkungen um weitere 50 Basispunkte bis Ende des Jahres, was auf eine weitere Senkung der Mortgage-Raten hindeutet.
Was ist die Hauptbotschaft des Videos in Bezug auf den Immobilienmarkt und die Zinssenkungen?
-Die Hauptbotschaft ist, dass Zinssenkungen nicht automatisch zu einer Steigerung des Kaufinteresses führen und dass es notwendig ist, die tatsächlichen Daten und Indikatoren zu beobachten, um die zukünftige Entwicklung des Immobilienmarktes und der Wirtschaft zu verstehen.
Outlines
📉 Zinssensenkung und ihre Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaft
Der Federal Reserve hat historisch um 50 Basispunkte die Zinssätze gesenkt, was darauf hindeutet, dass sowohl die Wirtschaft als auch der Immobilienmarkt in den nächsten 3 bis 6 Monaten deutliche Veränderungen erfahren werden. Die Videoskriptanalyse zeigt, dass Zinssensenkungen oft ein Zeichen dafür sind, dass eine Rezession bevorsteht, da in 10 der letzten 14 Ratensenkungsphasen Rezessionen auftraten. Allerdings kann eine Senkung der Zinssätze die Kreditkosten für Verbraucher senken, was potenziell den Konsum und die Immobiliennachfrage stimulieren könnte. Eine Umfrage zeigt jedoch, dass 91% der Befragten angeben, dass eine Senkung der Hypothekenraten ihre Wahrscheinlichkeit, ein Haus zu kaufen, nicht erhöht hat. Diese Daten weisen darauf hin, dass die Ratensenkungen möglicherweise nicht die erwartete Steigerung der Käufernachfrage im Immobilienmarkt auslösen werden.
📊 Wirtschaftliche Indikatoren und Vorhersagen
Das Skript analysiert eine Reihe von wirtschaftlichen Indikatoren, um den aktuellen wirtschaftlichen Trend zu verstehen. Es zeigt, dass einige Indikatoren wie Inflation und GDP-Verbrauch stark sind, während andere wie das零售销售 und die Arbeitslosenquote schwach sind. Die Analyse deutet darauf hin, dass die Wirtschaft insgesamt nicht so gut abschnitt und sich möglicherweise verschlechtern wird. Die Bundesreserve hat Vorhersagen für zukünftige Zinssenkungen veröffentlicht, die darauf hindeuten, dass es im Laufe des Jahres weitere Senkungen geben könnte. Diese Informationen sind entscheidend für potenzielle Hauskäufer und Investoren, die den wirtschaftlichen Trend für ihre Entscheidungen berücksichtigen müssen.
🏠 Immobilienmarkt und Käuferbedarf
Der dritte Absatz des Skripts konzentriert sich auf den Immobilienmarkt und die Käufernachfrage. Es wird eine Reihe von vorausschauenden Indikatoren wie Hypothekenanmeldungen, Besuche auf Bauträgerseiten und Online-Suchanfragen analysiert, die darauf hindeuten, dass die Käufernachfrage im Immobilienmarkt nicht stark ist. Trotz sinkender Hypothekenraten zeigen diese Indikatoren, dass sich die Käuferaktivität nicht signifikant erhöht hat. Die Analyse eines Diagramms zeigt, dass die heimischen Preise im Vergleich zu Inflation und Einkommen stark gestiegen sind und weit über dem langfristigen Durchschnitt liegen, was auf eine Blase hindeutet. Dies könnte der Hauptgrund dafür sein, warum Käufer nicht in den Markt zurückkehren, da sie auf eine Korrektur der Immobilienpreise warten.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Federal Reserve
💡Zinssenkung
💡Wirtschaftliche Rezession
💡Immobilienmarkt
💡Basispunkte
💡Kreditschulden
💡Verbraucherkredit
💡Immobilienkredit
💡Wirtschaftliche Indikatoren
💡Wohnungsnachfrage
Highlights
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates by 50 basis points, suggesting significant economic shifts.
Historically, Fed rate cuts often signal an impending recession.
Public misconception that Fed rate cuts are positive for the economy is debunked.
Comparison to September 2007 rate cut and subsequent market behavior is made.
Poll results show 91% are not encouraged to buy houses despite lower mortgage rates.
Mortgage application index remains low despite rate cuts.
Economic indicators show a mixed but weakening economy.
Fed projections suggest further rate cuts to stimulate the economy.
Concerns that rate cuts may not significantly boost buyer demand or the economy.
Forward-looking home buyer demand index shows a decline in buyer interest.
Historical data indicates a significant housing bubble and high home prices as a deterrent.
Call to action for viewers to share their insights and experiences regarding the housing market and economy.
Emphasis on the importance of understanding economic trends for making informed financial decisions.
Discussion on the limited effectiveness of rate cuts in stimulating the housing market.
Prediction that the economy may worsen in the coming months, affecting asset markets.
Transcripts
in a historic move the Federal Reserve
just cut interest rates by 50 basis
points suggesting that both the economy
and the housing market are going to
shift marketly over the next 3 to 6
months in this video I'm going to give
you all the data that you need to know
and understand as a home buyer investor
or just someone trying to track the
economy because historically when the
FED Cuts interest rates everyone that's
the signal that a recession is on the
way because 10 of the last 14 times that
the FED entered a rate cut cycle we had
a recession only four times did we Dodge
a recession and what a lot of people
make the mistake of with Fed rate Cuts
is they think actually it's a positive
for the economy for instance check out
this article from September 2007 right
before the great financial crash this
article reports how on September 18th
2007 17 years ago to the day the FED cut
interest rates by half a percentage
point in an attempt to help the economy
and look at what happened doc surged
following the announcement the NASDAQ
shot up 2.7 % the S&P closed 3% higher
this is a good first move that will give
aggressive confidence aggressive relief
to credit markets in the consumer and
the stock market actually continued to
Rally folks through October 2007 after
the FED did that 50 basis point cut 17
years ago and why I'm giving you that
example is so you can understand what
we're seeing today mirrors very much
what we saw at the beginning of that
last crash and that the people who are
getting overly excited uh that a Fed
rate cut is somehow going to mean that
asset markets are going to go up forever
in the economy is going to avoid a
recession these same people existed 17
years ago right before Leman brothers
and right before the biggest housing
crash of all time now that doesn't
guarantee that we're about to see uh a
repeat of 2008 we of course need to look
closer at what's going on in the economy
because one of the benefits to Fed rate
cuts for the economy is that borrowing
gets cheaper interest rates go down
mortgage rates go down mortgage rates
were already down to 6.1% the cost of
borrowing a loan for a car goes down
down credit card interest rates go down
so those things will help consumers
however the early returns when I pulled
you guys on if these rate cuts are going
to matter are not so positive for
instance 6 days ago I pulled you guys
and asked mortgage rates just dropped to
6.1% in anticipation of these rate Cuts
does this make you more likely to buy a
house 91% of you said no so of the
19,000 people who voted in this poll
think about that everyone sample size of
19,000 which is way more than you know
the official polls that you see in the
News 9 1% of you are saying lower
mortgage rates down to
6.1% does not make you more likely to
buy so I want you to think about that
everyone one of the main mechanisms for
people thinking that Fed rate Cuts is
stimulative for the economy and the
housing market is that it should bring
more buyers in due to lower rates
however an astounding 91% of you are
saying that the drop in mortgage rates
we're seeing is not doing anything to
make you want to buy a house that should
cause you to be very very cautious in
assuming what's going to happen in the
economy into the future because I see a
lot of people potentially making a big
mistake out there right now they're
saying hey the FED just cut rates and uh
mortgage rates are dropping everything
is going to Boom everything is going to
be good well when we look at the data
and we look at what people are saying it
doesn't seem to be the case for instance
folks what are we seeing on our mortgage
applications this is a data point that
I'm going to be tracking every week for
you guys to see if there's a rebound in
housing market demand and what we're
seeing so far is that there's minimal to
no rebound through um September 18th the
mortgage application index is now up to
146 you can see that's off a low of 131
about a month ago so a slight
Improvement in mortgage apps but as you
can see still at a very low level and
still actually 1% below where they were
a year ago so despite the fact that
mortgage rates are way down from a year
ago the mortgage apps haven't increased
at all and I'm not saying this to be
overly negative I want to be clear about
that everyone I'm not trying to be
overly bearish here on the housing
market and economy but I just want to
give you all a dose of reality about
what's happening right now in financial
markets in mortgage markets with home
buyer demand because it's very relevant
in understanding and underscoring the
point that interest rate cuts and the
prospect of interest rate Cuts so far
don't seem to be moving the market very
much in favor of increasing buyer demand
and if home buyer demand doesn't
increase then I think it's unlikely we
see other forms of demand in the economy
increase either and really one of the
things really we got to ask and answer
is what's going to happen to this
economy over the next six months because
it's clear it's weakening right very
clear that the economy is weakening job
market is weakening it's why the FED cut
rates but are we going to actually tip
into a real recession in the next 3 to
six months because if we do I mean all
bets are off on what could happen in
terms of downside on stocks and home
prices and to understand this folks I I
put together a chart for you guys which
I'm going to show you here in a second
and this chart breaks down different
economic indicators and shows you where
we are with these indicators so you can
understand firmly how the economy is
trending and you know folks I put this
chart together almost as much for myself
as you guys because you know we continue
to hear all these different reports
about what's going on in the economy so
what I did is I broke it down between 11
different indicators from different
sources engage them on if they're strong
normal weak or relatively weak and what
we can see here is starting with
inflation we're at 2.5 2.6% inflation
that's normal for the economy in a
recession we would typically see uh more
disinflation or potentially deflation
GDP consumption those things are strong
so the Bureau of economic advisor uh
reports on GDP and consumption
undoubtedly these metrics are strong
right now adjusted for inflation so
these are the two things that uh how uh
economic Bulls are hanging their hat on
that we have strong GDP strong
consumption now we go to retail sales
from the US Census Bureau adjusted for
inflation we're at minus 0.5% year year
that's relatively weak not as strong
growth in
unemployment 12.2% year-over-year that
is definitively weak it's why the fed's
cutting rates however we haven't yet
seen a surge in initial unemployment
claims from uh the labor department
these ranges are normal so that's why a
lot of people are saying well we're not
really like in a major recession yet
because while the Unemployment uh level
is going up we're not seeing the claims
now some additional data points personal
savings rate 2.9% that is weak Americans
are saving a very low share of their
income the manufacturing PMI reported by
the ism Institute for Supply management
is a 47.2 that is also definitively weak
so the manufacturing sector is in
contraction the services PMI also
reported by the ism is 51.5 while that's
technically an expanding Services sector
that number is pretty low also
relatively weak finally loan growth from
Banks adjusted for inflation is minus
0.1% so adjusted for inflation we have
no growth in loans from Banks and so in
totality you could see the mixed picture
on the economy here and um for me I read
that as the economy isn't doing so well
and will likely worsen is how I read
those data points and indicators but I
just wanted to lay them out for for you
um as someone watching this channel so
you can make up your own mind based on
what the data is showing because I know
a lot of you are looking to buy a house
in the next year a lot of you are
looking to make a big Financial purchase
and knowing where the economy is heading
is very very important in order to uh
have confidence in that purchase because
you don't want to buy a big asset like a
house or buy a big expensive car and
then have the economy go into recession
and the prices of everything collaps I
don't think anyone wants that so it's
very important to understand the trends
here in the market and uh by the way I
know that I have like this light coming
on my face right now it's very annoying
I have the the shades drawn but somehow
the sun is still coming through so
please just try to ignore that but now
let's get into some projections everyone
because the FED also released some
projections on where they think interest
rates are heading in the future with uh
these rate Cuts so they just did 50
basis point rate cut they just did from
5.3 down to 4.8% on the FED funds rate
so they held the interest rates for
about a year and have now cut 50 basic
points what they have projected for the
rest of the year is another 50 basis
points in rate Cuts so that suggests uh
25 basis point rate cut in November and
then a 25 basis point rate cut in
December bringing short-term fed fed
funds to 4.3 4.4% by the end of the year
so that's the current projection from
the FED on their Dot Plot and I think
that's pretty likely to happen so long
as nothing crazy crazy happens in the
economy between now and then uh we could
still probably see some higher
unemployment rate by a little bit we
could still probably see inflation go
down and byy a bit and they're not going
to change that and what that goes to is
probably by the end of the year a
mortgage rate I would say a shade below
6% maybe it would be at like a 59
mortgage rate by the end of the year
would be my current projection based on
what the FED is saying so think about
that if you're a home buyer and I think
most of you already you know decided
that's not going to influence things for
you you know if you're not going to buy
at 6.1% you're probably not going to buy
at 5.9% most of these rate cuts are
already baked in to the 30-year fixed
mortgage rate and I think what scares me
for the economy and why I think 2025
especially could be volatile in the end
to 2024 in asset markets is that so many
people have been banking on these Fed
rate cuts to save the day I mean for two
years folks all we've heard is wait
until the FED Cuts
rates and now the FED has cut rates
and we're going to see what
happens because you know my suspicion is
not a whole lot is going to happen I
don't think we're going to see much of a
bounce back in buyer demand maybe
incremental increase I don't think we're
going to see consumers all of a sudden
start spending tons of money just
because the FED cut interest rates by 50
basis points consumers are already
basically out of money based on record
low savings rates and skyrocketing
credit card
delinquencies and so what I kind of fear
for people's mentality in asset markets
is that now that the FED is cut what if
things don't get appreciably
better what are people then going to
hang their hat on to sustain this
bubble you know they're going to really
run out of options I mean this was the
big bazooka That was supposed to come in
and change everything and the early
returns are saying it's not going to
change things nearly as much as people
thought and again I'm looking at the
housing market for this in particular we
can track those mortgage applications
every single week and we're seeing very
little home buyer interest in response
to these declining mortgage rates we'll
see if the actual announcement of a Fed
rate cut causes more buyers to come into
the market I'm somewhat SK skeptical it
will because I'm also tracking some
forward-looking indicators of home buyer
demand in addition to mortgage
applications and things aren't looking
so healthy check the sound everyone I
kind of been putting together a
forward-looking home buyer demand index
and I'm combining different data points
to do that we talked about mortgage apps
right which are down 3% year-over-year
on average for September they're down
46% from before the pandemic so we just
nowhere close to a real rebound and
buyer Demand on mortgage apps we also
see buyer traffic at Builder sites is
down 10% yearyear 46% from 2019 we also
see home searches homes for sale
searches from Google down 16% year over
year 28% from 2019 in addition red Fin's
home buyer demand index which needs to
be updated for this week is down 7%
year-over-year down 26% from 2021 so on
average these forward-looking indicators
of you know buyers touring homes touring
Builder sites applying for mortgages
searching on Google down 9%
year-over-year 40% from 2019 43% from
2021 so going forward for you guys out
there I'm going to be updating these
forward-looking housing Mar Market
metrics every week so you can have a
handle if you're buyer investor or
realtor on if there's like an actual
movement in the market for more buyer
Demand right now the answer is clearly
no maybe that changes in the future I
have my doubts but I'll be tracking that
data for you guys so make sure to hit
that subscribe button if you want this
content into your feed in the future and
lastly everyone I just want to show you
one more graph one last graph that's
just really important for you all to
understand showing how big this housing
bubble is in America and showing why the
buyers have not come back yet because
it's not really the mortgage rates
that's the problem it's the home prices
that are the problem and let me show you
what I mean by that this graph looks at
inflation adjusted home prices in
America going all the way back to 1890
so we literally have 134 years of data
on inflation adjusted home prices in
America the source of this data is
Robert Schiller the famed Economist from
Yale downloaded it from his website so
you could see that inflation adjusted
prices here at an index of 293 in 2024
they are at at a record high the only
other time inflation adjusted prices
wherever this high was 06 meanwhile this
yellow line is the long-term 130 year
average in inflation adjusted prices and
you can see we're just way above that
meaning that home prices went up way
faster than inflation and incomes and
the costs of other goods and services
indicating a bubble we never saw any
bubble like this sustain itself in US
history over the last 130 years I think
home buyers intuitively know this which
is why they're not coming back into the
market due to incremental mortgage rate
declines rather it's going to take
meaningful home price declines for
buyers to come back in let me know what
you think in the comment section below
about the Fed rate cut the big housing
bubble the mortgage rate decline what
are you seeing out there in the economy
if you're a home buyer realtor or an
investor I want to hear your feedback in
the comment section until next time this
is Nick from eventure Consulting signing
off
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