TAXA SELIC VAI SUBIR! ATÉ QUANTO VAI AUMENTAR? O QUE VAI ACONTECER COM SEUS INVESTIMENTOS?

Rob Correa

17 Sept 202410:25

Summary

TLDRThe script discusses the Brazilian Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee meeting on September 17-18, 2024, where the SELIC rate is expected to rise, contrary to earlier expectations of a decrease. It compares Brazil's situation with the US Federal Reserve's actions, where rates are expected to fall. The video outlines investments that benefit from higher SELIC rates, such as TESOURO SELIC, CDs, LCI, and LSAS, while highlighting how stocks and real estate funds might suffer. It also suggests that funds investing in real estate receivables and atypical long-term real estate funds can benefit from interest rate hikes.

Takeaways

📈 The Brazilian Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee meets on September 17th and 18th to decide on the SELIC interest rate, which is expected to rise contrary to earlier expectations of a decrease.
🌎 On the same days, the US Federal Reserve will also be deciding on the US interest rates, which are expected to start falling.
📉 Historically, Brazil's SELIC rate had been as high as 13.75% in late July but has since seen reductions.
💹 The expectation at the beginning of the year was for interest rates to decrease, but now they are expected to rise again, which is a disappointment for investors.
📊 A survey of 61 financial institutions predicts that the SELIC rate will rise by 0.25 percentage points from 10.50% to 10.75%, with some expecting a rise to 11% or even 11.50%.
💰 Investments that benefit from rising SELIC rates include Selic-linked Treasury bonds, post-fixed CDBs, LCI and LSAs, and post-fixed fixed-income funds.
📉 Investments negatively affected by rising interest rates are stocks and real estate funds, as higher rates increase borrowing costs and compete with fixed-income investments for attractiveness.
🏦 Real estate funds that invest in long-term, atypical contracts are somewhat protected from the negative impacts of rising interest rates.
📚 For a deeper analysis on these topics, the speaker invites viewers to check out the HOB Correa Research channel for more on stocks, real estate funds, and international investments.
💼 For personalized investment consultancy, viewers are directed to click on the provided link in the video description or comments to get in touch with the speaker's team.

Q & A

What is the purpose of the Central Bank's Monetary Policy Committee meeting in Brazil?
-The purpose of the meeting is to decide the basic interest rate of the Brazilian economy, known as the SELIC rate.
When did the Monetary Policy Committee meet to discuss the SELIC rate?
-The Monetary Policy Committee met on September 17th and 18th, 2024.
What was the expectation for the SELIC rate at the beginning of the year according to the script?
-At the beginning of the year, the expectation was that the SELIC rate would decrease.
How did the trend of the SELIC rate change according to the script?
-The trend changed from a decrease to an increase, which was unexpected and contrary to initial expectations.
What is the current SELIC rate in Brazil as of the script's recording?
-As of the script's recording, the SELIC rate was 10.50%, and there were expectations for it to rise further.
What is the relationship between the SELIC rate and the performance of variable income investments?
-When the SELIC rate increases, variable income investments such as stocks, real estate funds, and variable income funds generally perform better.
How does the increase in the SELIC rate affect the stock market according to the script?
-An increase in the SELIC rate can lead to a decrease in stock prices because it raises the cost of borrowing, which can reduce company profits and make stocks less attractive compared to fixed-income investments.
What are some investments that benefit from an increase in the SELIC rate?
-Investments that benefit from an increase in the SELIC rate include fixed-income funds, such as Treasury SELIC, post-fixed CDs, LCI, and LSAs, as their returns are linked to the SELIC rate.
What are the potential negative impacts of an increase in the SELIC rate on investments?
-An increase in the SELIC rate can negatively impact investments like stocks and real estate funds, as it raises the cost of borrowing and makes fixed-income investments more attractive, leading to a potential decrease in their prices.
What is the expected trend for the US Federal Reserve's interest rate according to the script?
-Contrary to Brazil's SELIC rate, the script suggests that the US Federal Reserve's interest rate is expected to decrease.
How does the script suggest investors should react to the changing interest rate environment?
-The script suggests that investors should consider the impact of interest rate changes on different investment types and possibly adjust their portfolios to benefit from rising rates or protect against their negative effects.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Interest Rate Hikes in Brazil and the US

The script discusses the monetary policy committee meeting of the Central Bank of Brazil, which took place on September 17th and 18th, 2024, to decide on the basic interest rate for the Brazilian economy, known as the SELIC rate. It contrasts this with the Federal Reserve's decision on the US interest rate on the same day. The script outlines the historical trajectory of Brazil's interest rates, which had been reduced from a high of 13.75% in late July but are now expected to rise again, contrary to earlier expectations of a continued decline. The script also discusses the impact of interest rate changes on various investments, such as stocks, real estate funds, and variable-rate investments, which tend to perform inversely to interest rates. It mentions the performance of certain ETFs over the past 12 months, highlighting their rising profitability as interest rates increase.

05:04

💹 Impact of Interest Rate Hikes on Investments

The second paragraph delves into the specific investments that benefit from an increase in the SELIC rate, including the famous Treasury SELIC, which directly links its yield to the SELIC rate. It also mentions other fixed-income investments like post-fixed CDs (CDBs), LCIs, and LSAs, which are tied to the CDI or SELIC rates, thus benefiting from higher interest rates. The script highlights that these investments are tax-exempt, making them more attractive. On the downside, it discusses how stocks and real estate investment funds (REITs) can be negatively impacted by rising interest rates. The increased cost of borrowing affects companies' profitability and can lead to a decrease in stock prices. Additionally, the attractiveness of fixed-income investments relative to variable-income ones can cause a shift in investor preferences, potentially affecting the performance of REITs. The script suggests that funds that invest in real estate-related securities, such as CRIs (Certificados de Recebíveis Imobiliários), can benefit from higher interest rates, as their returns are linked to the CDI, which increases with the SELIC rate.

10:06

🔚 Wrapping Up the Discussion on Interest Rates

The final paragraph concludes the discussion by summarizing the points made about the impact of interest rate changes on various investment types. It invites viewers to explore further by visiting the channel 'HOB Correa Research' for more in-depth analysis on stocks, real estate funds, and international investments. The script also offers a direct link for viewers interested in personalized investment consulting, encouraging them to click on the provided link to connect with an expert and discuss their investment needs.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡SELIC

SELIC, an acronym for 'System Special of Clearing and Custody', is Brazil's benchmark interest rate set by the Central Bank of Brazil. It is the overnight lending rate and serves as a guide for other interest rates in the economy, influencing consumer and business loans. The script discusses the expectation of SELIC rate changes and their impact on the economy, highlighting the recent decision to maintain it at 10.50% and the potential for it to rise, which could affect various investments and financial instruments.

💡Federal Reserve

The Federal Reserve, the central banking system of the United States, is responsible for implementing monetary policy, including interest rate decisions that influence the U.S. economy and global financial markets. The script mentions the Federal Reserve's decision-making同期 on interest rates, which occurs around the same time as Brazil's Central Bank, and how it can have contrasting effects on the U.S. and Brazilian economies.

💡Interest Rates

Interest rates are the cost of borrowing money and the return on investment. They are crucial for investors and borrowers as they affect the cost of loans and the earnings on savings. The script discusses how changes in interest rates, particularly the SELIC rate in Brazil and the Federal Reserve's rate in the U.S., can lead to shifts in investment strategies and returns, with potential increases in rates affecting fixed-income investments and the stock market.

💡Investments

Investments are assets or property that are purchased with the hope of generating income or appreciation in the future. The script explores various investment vehicles, such as fixed-income securities and real estate funds, and how they are affected by changes in interest rates. For instance, an increase in SELIC rates can benefit certain fixed-income investments like Treasury SELIC notes, while it may negatively impact stocks and real estate funds.

💡Monetary Policy

Monetary policy refers to the actions of a central bank, such as the Federal Reserve or Brazil's Central Bank, intended to influence economic activity by adjusting the money supply and interest rates. The script discusses the monetary policy committee meetings in both Brazil and the U.S., which are pivotal for determining the direction of interest rates and thus the broader economy.

💡ETFs

ETFs, or Exchange-Traded Funds, are investment funds that are traded on stock exchanges, much like individual stocks. They track an index, sector, commodity, or a theme, and offer a diversified portfolio in a single trade. The script mentions specific ETFs like VT, VNQ, and VNQI, which are expected to perform well in a rising interest rate environment due to their focus on sectors that benefit from higher rates.

💡Fixed Income

Fixed income refers to investments that pay out a fixed sum of interest over a specified period. This includes bonds, certificates of deposit, and some types of annuities. The script explains how fixed-income investments, such as certain types of bonds and CDs, can become more attractive when interest rates rise, as their yields increase, making them a preferred choice over riskier assets like stocks.

💡Real Estate Funds

Real estate funds pool money from investors to purchase income-producing real estate or real estate-related securities. The script discusses how changes in interest rates can impact real estate funds differently, with some funds that invest in mortgage-backed securities potentially benefiting from higher rates, while others that provide passive income may see a drop in value as investors seek higher-yielding fixed-income alternatives.

💡Taxa de Juros

In Portuguese, 'taxa de juros' translates to 'interest rate' in English. The script refers to the importance of understanding interest rates, as they are a fundamental aspect of financial decisions, influencing borrowing costs and investment returns. The discussion includes the impact of interest rate changes on various financial instruments and the economy as a whole.

💡Investment Strategies

Investment strategies are plans or approaches to investing with the goal of maximizing returns while managing risk. The script touches on how shifts in interest rates can alter investment strategies, with investors needing to adapt by moving between asset classes, such as from stocks to bonds, in response to changing economic conditions and monetary policy.

Highlights

Brazil's central bank is expected to increase the SELIC interest rate during their meeting on September 17-18.

U.S. Federal Reserve is meeting on September 18, with expectations that interest rates will decrease.

Brazil's interest rate reached 13.75% in July but began decreasing, with predictions that rates would fall further.

Contrary to early 2023 expectations, Brazil's interest rates are now projected to rise again.

53 out of 61 financial institutions predict a 0.25 percentage point increase in Brazil's interest rate, bringing it from 10.50% to 10.75%.

Some institutions believe the rate could rise by 0.50 percentage points, while others believe it will remain at 10.50%.

By the end of the year, 26 financial institutions expect Brazil’s interest rate to close at 11%.

Investments that benefit from increasing interest rates include SELIC-linked treasury bonds, post-fixed CDBs, and post-fixed LCIs and LCAs.

Fixed-income funds also benefit from rising interest rates, as their returns are tied to CDI and SELIC.

Increasing interest rates negatively impact stocks due to the higher cost of borrowing, reducing company profits and valuation.

Higher interest rates make fixed-income investments more attractive, drawing funds away from riskier assets like stocks.

Real estate funds tied to fixed-income securities, like CRIs (Certificados de Recebíveis Imobiliários), gain from rising interest rates.

Real estate funds with atypical and long-term contracts (e.g., expiring in 2029 or later) are less impacted by rising interest rates.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to start cutting interest rates, benefiting investors in variable income assets, particularly ETFs like VT, VNQ, and BND.

Despite the rise in interest rates, some funds in the U.S. have started showing positive returns over the last 12 months, especially those tied to international markets.