France's Election Results Explained

Summary

The French General Assembly election's second round delivered a surprising outcome with the Left-Wing coalition, New Popular Front, securing a plurality of seats. Despite not achieving a majority, this result has significant implications for French politics. Macron's Ensemble finished second, leaving the National Rally in third. The election's aftermath presents challenges in forming a government, with potential scenarios including a coalition of moderates, a minority NFP government, or a blocked parliament. The situation may lead to a technocrat government or even constitutional reform.

Takeaways

• 🗳️ The French General Assembly election results for the second round were a surprise, with the Left-Wing coalition winning a plurality of seats.
• 🏛️ Despite the parliamentary election results, Macron remains President until 2027 as these are not presidential elections.
• 📊 The election process in France uses a 'two-round system' where a second round is necessary if no candidate gets over 50% in the first round.
• 🔄 In the first round, only 76 out of 577 constituencies had a clear winner, with the rest requiring a second round to determine the representative.
• 🏆 The final results saw Macron's Ensemble win 166 seats, the National Rally 105 seats, and the New Popular Front 150 additional seats after the second round.
• 🤔 The New Popular Front, although winning, did not secure a majority, falling short by 107 seats.
• 🔄 The National Rally, initially expected to win, ended up in third place, a significant shift from pre-election polls.
• 🤝 A strategic move by centrist and left-wing parties to consolidate votes against far-right candidates in over 200 constituencies proved successful.
• 🔮 Three potential outcomes for the government formation include a coalition of moderates, an NFP minority government, or a blocked parliament.
• 🌐 The situation could lead to a 'technocrat' government or even constitutional reform, though these are considered unlikely at this stage.

Q & A

What was the unexpected outcome of the French General Assembly election results?

The Left-Wing coalition, known as the New Popular Front (NFP), emerged victorious, securing a plurality of seats, which was a significant shift in the French political landscape.

How many seats are there in the French National Assembly and how many are needed for a majority?

There are 577 seats in total in the French National Assembly, and 289 seats are required for a majority.

What is the 'two-round system' in French elections?

The 'two-round system' is an election process where if no candidate receives 50% or more of the votes in the first round, a second round is held where the top candidates face off.

What were the first-round results for the main parties in the election?

In the first round, Le Pen’s National Rally and their allies won 38 seats, the NFP won 32 seats, and Macron’s Ensemble won 2 seats.

How did the second round of voting change the election dynamics?

In the second round, the Republicans won an additional 44 seats, the National Rally won 105 seats, Macron’s Ensemble won 166 seats, and the NFP won an additional 150 seats, leading to the NFP emerging as the largest party.

Why was the NFP's victory considered a surprise?

The NFP's victory was considered a surprise because polls before the election showed the National Rally in first place, but they ended up in third place.

What strategy did centrist and left-wing parties use to counter the far-right National Rally?

Centrist and left-wing parties strategically withdrew their candidates in third place in over 200 constituencies to consolidate votes against the far-right candidate, thereby increasing the chances of defeating the National Rally candidate in the final round.

What are the three potential ways forward for forming a government after the election results?

The three potential ways forward are: a coalition of moderates, an NFP minority government, or a blocked parliament where no group can agree, potentially leading to a paralyzed legislature.

What is the significance of Macron's Ensemble winning 166 seats?

Macron's Ensemble winning 166 seats places them in second place, which is significant as it could influence the formation of a coalition government or the appointment of a Prime Minister.

What is the role of the Prime Minister in France's political system, especially in the context of these election results?

The Prime Minister in France is the head of government and plays a crucial role in implementing policies. In the context of these election results, the Prime Minister could potentially come from the NFP if they are unable to form a coalition, indicating a shift in policy direction.

What is the possibility of a 'technocrat' government being appointed to resolve the political impasse?

The appointment of a 'technocrat' government, comprising ministers with no party affiliation, is one potential solution to manage the country impartially and maintain stability until a more permanent solution is found, although it is considered unlikely that a majority for this can be found.

Outlines

00:00

🗳️ French General Assembly Election Results

The second round of the French General Assembly election has concluded with unexpected results. The Left-Wing coalition, New Popular Front (NFP), won the plurality of seats, marking a significant shift in French politics. Despite this, President Macron remains in power until 2027 as these are parliamentary, not presidential, elections. The election process, explained through a two-round system, saw 577 constituencies elect representatives to the National Assembly, with 289 seats needed for a majority. Initial results from the first round allocated seats as follows: Le Pen's National Rally with 38, NFP with 32, Macron's Ensemble with 2, and the Right-Wing Republicans with 1. The second round resulted in the NFP securing an additional 150 seats, Macron's Ensemble with 166, and the National Rally with 105, leaving the NFP as the clear winner despite not achieving a majority. The outcome has implications for the French political landscape and potential coalition formations.

05:04

🏛️ Post-Election Scenarios and MyHeritage Sponsorship

The video discusses potential outcomes following the French General Assembly election results. Three main scenarios are presented: a coalition of moderates, an NFP minority government, and a blocked parliament. The first involves a broad coalition to counter far-right influence, which faces challenges due to political polarization. The second considers the appointment of an NFP leader as Prime Minister, complicated by the lack of a consensus candidate. The third scenario predicts a deadlocked parliament, potentially leading to a 'technocrat' government or constitutional reform. The video also features a sponsorship by MyHeritage, a genealogy platform that allows users to explore their family history with over 19 billion historical records. The host shares a personal discovery of diverse ancestral roots and the platform's ability to enhance and animate old family photos.

Keywords

💡General Assembly election

The General Assembly election refers to the process of electing members to the French National Assembly. In the context of the video, it is a pivotal event that determines the political landscape of France. The election is significant because it decides which party or coalition will hold the majority of seats and thus influence the legislative agenda.

💡National Rally

The National Rally, previously known as the National Front, is a right-wing political party in France led by Marine Le Pen. The video discusses the unexpected outcome of the General Assembly election where the National Rally did not win, which was a significant development in French politics.

💡Left-Wing coalition

A left-wing coalition refers to a group of parties with left-leaning ideologies that have joined forces for political purposes. In the video, the Left-Wing coalition, specifically the New Popular Front, emerges victorious in the election, securing a plurality of seats, which is a major upset in French politics.

💡Plurality

Plurality in an election context means having more votes than any other single candidate or party but not necessarily a majority. The video highlights that the Left-Wing coalition secured a plurality of seats, indicating they had the most but not necessarily more than half of the total seats.

💡Two-round system

The two-round system is an electoral process where two rounds of voting are held if no candidate achieves a majority in the first round. The video explains that in French elections, if no candidate gets over 50% of the votes in the first round, a second round is needed to determine the winner.

💡National Assembly

The National Assembly is the lower house of the French Parliament. The video script discusses the importance of the General Assembly elections in determining the composition of the National Assembly, which has 577 seats and where 289 seats are required for a majority.

💡Absolute majority vote

An absolute majority vote is when a candidate receives more than 50% of the votes, securing a seat without the need for a second round. The video mentions that only 76 out of 577 constituencies had an absolute majority vote in the first round.

💡Centrists

Centrists are politicians with a political ideology that is neither left-wing nor right-wing. In the video, Macron's Ensemble is referred to as centrists. The unexpected result of the election places them in second place, which is a significant outcome in the French political landscape.

💡New Popular Front (NFP)

The New Popular Front is a broad left-wing alliance in French politics. The video discusses how the NFP won additional seats in the second round, contributing to their emergence as a significant political force in the National Assembly.

💡Parliamentary elections

Parliamentary elections are votes to elect members of a parliament. The video emphasizes that the elections discussed are parliamentary, not presidential, meaning Macron remains president until 2027. The outcome of these elections will shape the legislative branch of the French government.

💡Motion of no confidence

A motion of no confidence is a vote in a legislative assembly to withdraw confidence from a government. The video suggests that if no coalition can be formed, the parliament might become blocked, leading to situations where motions of no confidence could prevent any government from functioning effectively.

Highlights

The French General Assembly election results for the second round are in, with the Left-Wing coalition emerging victorious.

This outcome marks a significant shift in the French political landscape.

The election process involves a 'two-round system' with 577 constituencies and 289 seats required for a majority.

In the first round, 76 out of 577 constituencies had a single party winning by over 50%, determining the outcome in one round.

Le Pen’s National Rally and their allies won 38 seats in the first round.

Macron’s Ensemble won only 2 seats in the first round, indicating a potential upset.

The New Popular Front (NFP) secured 32 seats in the first round, setting the stage for a competitive second round.

In the second round, the Republicans won an additional 44 seats, showing a late surge.

Macron’s Ensemble surprisingly won 166 seats in the second round, a significant increase from the first round.

The NFP won an additional 150 seats in the second round, leading to their victory.

Despite the NFP's victory, they did not secure a majority, falling short by 107 seats.

The National Rally's party president criticized the 'unnatural alliance' between Macron and the leftists to block their surge.

Centrist and left-wing parties strategically withdrew candidates in third place to consolidate votes against far-right candidates.

There are three potential ways forward for the French government formation: a coalition of moderates, an NFP minority government, or a blocked parliament.

A 'technocrat' government appointment is another possibility to manage the country impartially until a more permanent solution is found.

Constitutional reform or early presidential elections are extreme options that seem unlikely at this stage.

Transcripts

The French General Assembly election  results for the second round are in,  

and they are super unexpected! Le  Pen’s National Rally did not win,  

nor did Macron's Ensemble. Instead, the Left-Wing  coalition emerged victorious, securing a plurality  

of seats. This surprising outcome marks a  significant shift in the French political  

landscape and bears all kinds of consequences. Bear in mind that these are not presidential  

elections, but parliamentary, meaning that  Macron will stay until 2027 as planned.

But before we dive into the  final results and what they mean,  

let's do a super quick recap of how  French General Assembly elections work.

In France, there are 577 constituencies, and  in each constituency, one representative is  

elected to represent their constituency  and party in the National Assembly. This  

means there are 577 seats in total, and  289 seats are required for a majority.

The election process involves a "two-round  system." In the first round, which took  

place last week on June 30th, citizens voted for  the candidates and their respective parties in  

their constituencies. There are two possible  outcomes in the first round: either a single  

candidate receives 50% or more of the votes,  or none of the candidates reach this threshold.

If a candidate receives 50% or more, they  automatically become a member of the National  

Assembly, a result known as an absolute majority  vote. In this case there will be no second round.

If no candidate achieves 50%,  

which is more common, a second round  is held on July 7th, where the top  

candidates face off. This example on the right  illustrates what actually happened last night.

Three candidates qualified  for the second round. However,  

one candidate withdrew their candidacy  before the runoff. Consequently,  

the remaining two candidates competed,  with one ultimately winning the seat.

Based on the results from last week, only  76 out of 577 constituencies had a single  

party winning by over 50% in the first round,  thus determining the outcome in one round.  

The remaining constituencies required  a second round to decide the winners.

So, finally, what are the results?

In the first round the  following seats were allocated:

Le Pen’s right-wing Populist National  Rally and their allies: 38 seats 

The broad left-wing alliance New Popular  Front (also called NFP): 32 seats 

Macron’s Centrists Ensemble: 2 seats The Right-Wing Republicans: 1 seat

Last week, it seemed as though Le Pen was  poised to take France by storm. However,  

what happened in round 2 last night?

At the time of recording, The republicans won and additional 44 seats 

The National rally won 105 seats Macron’s Ensemble won a surprising 166 seats 

And the New Popular Front  won an additional 150 seats! 

Now, if we add the first and second  round results, we get the following,  

where the Left Wing Alliance emerges  as the clear winner! And Macron in  

second place. Whic h was rather unexpected! However, 289 seats are needed for a majority,  

and even the New Popular Front is not  even close to meeting that target,  

as they would have needed an additional 107 seats. This was unexpected, as polls before the election  

showed a National Rally in first place, but they  ended up in third place. The National Rally’s  

party president Jordan Bardella slammed what he  called the “unnatural alliance” between Macron  

and the leftists “to stop by all means National  Rally’s most important surge of its history.” 

What he means is that if a National Rally (RN)  candidate advanced to the second round along  

with two other candidates, the centrist  and left-wing parties have strategically  

withdrawn their candidates in third place.  This move was aimed at consolidating votes  

against the far-right candidate, thereby  increasing the chances of defeating the RN  

candidate in the final round. They did this  in over 200 constituencies. And it worked! 

But what does this mean though?  Wel there are 3 ways forward. 

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the link in the description” So back to France, what do  

these results mean though? Who will for a  government? And who will be Prime Minister? 

Well there are 3 ways forward. The first option is a coalition of moderates.

Before the election, Macron and his allies  floated the idea of building a broad coalition,  

including moderate lawmakers  from both the left and the right,  

to counter the far-right influence.  For example, Macron could try and  

bring together Ensemble ,the Socialist Party,  Greens, Ensemble and some of the Republicans.

However, given the highly  polarised political landscape,  

forming such a coalition is difficult and  could lead to a paralyzed legislature. Plus,  

Melenchon from the far-left France Unbowed  has already stated in a victory speech  

that the NFP is not interested in a coalition  with the Macrons centrists or the Right  

Wing Republicans. However, maybe the other  parties within his coalition can be swayed.

The Second option is an NFP minority government

Given the New Popular Front’s large share of  seats, Macron may be forced to appoint one of  

their leaders as Prime Minister. But this  already presents the first problem - who?  

So far the coalition has not been able to put  forward a person who could be prime minister.

The third option is a blocked parliament.

With three large groups unable to agree, we could  find ourselves with a blocked parliament, where  

any attempt at government faces a motion of no  confidence. In other words, a majority disagrees  

and votes against it. French institutions would be  paralyzed, and no laws could be passed. This would  

be particularly difficult for civil servants  if it results in the budget never being voted  

on. It is possible that this situation could  continue until the 2027 presidential elections.  

To get out of this impasse is the appointment of a  "technocrat" government, comprising ministers with  

no party affiliation, similar to the government  led by Mario Draghi in Italy from 2021 to 2022.  

This approach aims to manage the country  impartially and maintain stability until a  

more permanent solution is found. However, it is  unlikely that a majority for this can be found.

In more extreme cases, we could see constitutional  reform or early presidential elections. But these  

seem very unlikely, and we will address them  in future videos if they become an option.

French viewers and others,  we would love to hear from  

you. Thank you to our contributors  and Thank you so much for watching!

And remember to check out MyHeritage.  Start your 14-day trial to journey into  

your family's past today! Find  the link in the description”

And if you want more election explainers,  check out the UK elections results here  

and its impact on the EU. Or check out the  EU election results from last month here.

Don’t forget to like the video  and subscribe to our channel,  

and stay tuned for more videos  like this. Until next time!