Why France Can't Form a New Government

Summary

Following France's legislative election, the National Assembly is now split among three ideologically divided blocks, resulting in political gridlock. The hastily formed left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) won the most seats but lacks a majority. President Macron's Ensemble Alliance fell to second place, while Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally came third. Potential government formations include an NFP minority government, a moderate coalition, a center-right minority government, or a technocratic prime minister. However, each faces significant challenges, and France may face a tense political impasse with no clear resolution in sight.

Takeaways

• 🗳️ The recent French legislative election resulted in a fragmented National Assembly, with no party securing a majority, leading to a politically divided landscape.
• 🏆 The New Popular Front (NFP), a hastily formed left-wing alliance, won the most seats but fell short of a majority, complicating the government formation process.
• 🔍 President Macron's Ensemble Alliance suffered significant losses, placing second and leaving Macron's party without a clear mandate to govern.
• 🚫 Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally gained seats but finished third, which, despite the increase, did not translate into immediate political power.
• 🤔 The election outcome has raised questions about the governability of France, with the potential for political gridlock and instability.
• 🌐 A potential government formation could involve a minority NFP government, but this would be vulnerable to censure and lack broad support from other parties.
• 🤝 Macron may seek to form a moderate coalition government, attempting to bridge the ideological divide by including center-left and center-right parties.
• 🔄 The challenge of forming a stable government is further complicated by internal disagreements within Macron's own party and the broader political spectrum.
• 🚧 The inability to call for new legislative elections within a year of the last one limits Macron's options to resolve the political deadlock through an electoral process.
• 🛠️ The video also discusses the potential for a technocratic prime minister, someone above party politics, to lead the government and provide stability.

Q & A

What was the outcome of the second round of France's legislative election?

The election resulted in a split National Assembly with no clear governing majority. The hastily formed pan-leftwing New Popular Front (NFP) came first but without a majority, President Macron's Centrist Ensemble Alliance fell to second place, and Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally came third.

Why might the term 'ungovernable' be used to describe France after the election?

The term 'ungovernable' is used because the election left France's National Assembly ideologically divided into three blocks with no clear majority, leading to a tense political gridlock with no clear way out.

What is the New Popular Front (NFP) and why did they claim the right to govern?

The New Popular Front (NFP) is a hastily formed pan-leftwing alliance that emerged as the largest grouping in the National Assembly after the election. They claimed the right to govern because they won the most seats, and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, the leader of the far-left France Unbowed party, argued that President Macron had the duty to call on the NFP to govern by appointing one of their members as prime minister.

What are the challenges for the NFP to form a government despite being the largest party?

The NFP faces challenges because they do not have a majority, and President Macron is under no obligation to appoint their choice for prime minister. Even if he did, it would be a minority government vulnerable to being taken down by a censure vote.

What is a potential moderate Coalition and why is it difficult to form?

A potential moderate Coalition could involve parties from the center-left to the center-right, including Macron's Alliance and possibly the Republicans. It is difficult to form because it would require splitting the NFP and creating an awkward alliance, as the center-right parties have been less supportive of Macron's reforms.

Why might a Center rightish minority government be a possible option?

A Center rightish minority government featuring Macron's Alliance and the conservative Republicans is a possible option because the Republicans have been more supportive of Macron's legislative agenda compared to other opposition parties.

What is the issue with the potential Center rightish minority government?

The issue is that even with a potential pact between Macron's Alliance and the Republicans, it would still be a minority government susceptible to being brought down by a censure vote, which could be supported by the NFP and Marine Le Pen's National Rally.

How is President Macron's own Alliance handling the political situation?

Macron's own Alliance is on the brink of splintering, with some members unhappy with the decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call the snap election. There are internal disagreements about whether to seek support from the right or form a broader Coalition with the center-left.

What are the potential outcomes if no political consensus is reached in France?

If no consensus is reached, potential outcomes include a series of short-lived minority governments being brought down by censure votes, or a 'zombie' minority government struggling to pass legislation with tacit approval from other parties until a new election can be called.

What is the role of the prime minister in the context of the French government formation?

The prime minister plays a crucial role in forming the government. The president is expected to appoint a prime minister who can command the confidence of the majority in the National Assembly. However, given the current political gridlock, finding a candidate who can unite the Assembly is a significant challenge.

What does the term 'technocrat' mean in the context of the French government, and why might it be suggested?

A 'technocrat' refers to a person who is appointed for their technical expertise rather than their political affiliations. The suggestion to appoint a technocrat as prime minister comes from the desire to have a leader who can rise above party politics and focus on governance, potentially providing stability in the current political chaos.

Outlines

00:00

🗳️ Post-Election Political Landscape in France

This paragraph discusses the political aftermath of France's legislative election, highlighting the surprising results that left the country in a state of uncertainty. The far-right National Rally led by Marine Le Pen gained seats but did not secure power. President Macron's Centrist Ensemble Alliance lost seats and came in second place. The hastily formed pan-left New Popular Front (NFP) emerged as the largest group but without a majority. The election has resulted in a divided National Assembly with no clear majority, leading to potential political gridlock. The paragraph also mentions the NFP's claim to govern and the challenges it faces, including the lack of a majority and opposition from other parties.

05:01

🔄 Potential Government Formations and Challenges

This paragraph delves into the possible government formations following the election. It explores the idea of an NFP minority government, which is unlikely due to the lack of a majority and potential opposition from other parties. The paragraph then considers a moderate coalition government that could potentially gain a parliamentary majority, but this faces challenges such as the need to split the NFP and opposition from senior Republican figures. Another possibility is a center-right minority government involving Macron's Alliance and the conservative Republicans. However, this too would be a minority government vulnerable to censure votes. The paragraph also touches on internal divisions within Macron's own Alliance and the potential for a series of short-lived governments if no consensus is reached.

Keywords

💡Ungovernable

The term 'ungovernable' refers to a situation where a government is unable to effectively govern or control a country or region. In the context of the video, it is used to describe the political landscape in France after the legislative election, where no single party or alliance has a clear majority, leading to potential political gridlock.

💡Snap Legislative Election

A 'snap legislative election' is an election that is called unexpectedly or ahead of schedule. The video discusses how the recent snap legislative election in France resulted in a surprising outcome, contributing to the current political uncertainty.

💡National Rally

The 'National Rally' is a far-right political party in France, led by Marine Le Pen. The video notes that polls had indicated the party was on the verge of coming to power, but it ended up gaining a significant number of seats and coming third in the election.

💡Centrist Ensemble Alliance

The 'Centrist Ensemble Alliance' refers to the political alliance led by President Macron, which is described as losing many seats and falling to second place in the election. This outcome is significant as it reflects a shift in the political dynamics within the National Assembly.

💡New Popular Front (NFP)

The 'New Popular Front' (NFP) is a hastily formed pan-leftwing alliance that won the most seats in the election but did not secure a majority. The video discusses the potential for the NFP to form a government and the challenges it faces, including internal ideological differences and opposition from other parties.

💡Prime Minister

The 'Prime Minister' is the head of government in a country with a parliamentary system. The video mentions the debate over who should be appointed as Prime Minister by President Macron, with the NFP claiming it should be one of their members, highlighting the power dynamics and negotiations in the post-election period.

💡Minority Government

A 'minority government' is one that does not have the support of the majority of the legislative body. The video explores the possibility of an NFP minority government and the challenges it would face, such as the risk of being brought down by a censure vote.

💡Moderate Coalition

A 'moderate coalition' refers to a government formed by parties with more centrist or moderate political views. The video discusses the idea of a moderate coalition as a potential government formation, which could include parties from the center-left to the center-right, to achieve a parliamentary majority.

💡Censure Vote

A 'censure vote' is a legislative vote of no confidence in a government. The video mentions that a minority government could be instantly taken down by a censure vote, which would be supported by parties opposed to the government, leading to political instability.

💡Political Gridlock

Political 'gridlock' occurs when there is a stalemate in the decision-making process within a government. The video describes the current situation in France as a tense political gridlock due to the split in the National Assembly into three ideologically divided blocks, with no clear governing majority.

💡Technocrat

A 'technocrat' is a person with expertise in a particular field who is appointed to a government position rather than being a politician. The video suggests the possibility of appointing a technocrat as Prime Minister to rise above party politics and provide a calming influence, although it is uncertain if such a figure exists or would be accepted.

Highlights

France's legislative election results in a politically divided National Assembly with no clear majority.

Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally gains seats but finishes third.

President Macron's Centrist Ensemble Alliance loses seats and falls to second place.

The hastily formed pan-leftwing New Popular Front Alliance wins the most seats but not a majority.

France faces political gridlock with no clear way out due to the ideologically divided blocks.

The New Popular Front claims the right to govern as the largest grouping in the National Assembly.

Macron is under no obligation to let the New Popular Front govern or appoint their choice as prime minister.

The New Popular Front faces internal disagreements on who should be the prime minister.

A minority government led by the New Popular Front would likely face a censure vote.

Macron favors a moderate Coalition government involving parties from the center to center-right.

Creating a moderate Coalition would require splitting the New Popular Front and overcoming opposition from various parties.

A center-rightish minority government with Macron's Alliance and the Republicans is a possibility.

Macron's own Alliance is on the brink of splintering due to internal disagreements.

Macron's prime minister, Gabriel Attal, remains in post as an interim amid the political chaos.

A potential scenario involves a 'zombie' minority government struggling through the next year.

A new government could be brought down by a censure vote, leading to a series of short-lived governments.

Macron may appoint a prime minister above party politics, described as a technocrat.

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Transcripts

this video is brought to you by

skillshare if you were to sum up France

in one word since the second round of

its snap legislative election last week

ungovernable might be the best choice

the surprise election delivered an even

more surprising result Marine Le Pen's

far-right National rally which polls

indicated was on the brink of coming to

power gained a considerable number of

seats but came third president macron's

Centrist Ensemble Alliance lost many

seats and fell to second place while the

hastily crafted pan leftwing new popular

front Alliance came first with the most

seats but far from a majority the

election has left France's national

assembly split into three ideologically

divided blocks with no clear governing

majority so in this video we're going to

have a look at some of the potential

government formations go through their

pros and cons and explain why France now

faces a tense political gridlock with no

clear way out

before we start if you haven't already

please consider subscribing and ringing

the bell to stay in the loop and be

notified when we release new videos

let's start with what might at face

value seem like the most obvious option

for a new government the new popular

front or NFP having emerged from the

election as the largest grouping in the

National Assembly the NFP has claimed

that it must be them that's given the

chance to govern for example Jean Luke

Melanson who leads the far-left France

and bow party the nfps largest party

said that president macron has the duty

to call on the new popular front to

govern by appointing one of their ranks

to be prime minister and Communist party

leader Fabian rousell said macron should

respect the choice of the voters by

letting the NFP govern now at the time

of writing the NFP still hasn't come to

a consensus on which leftwing figure

they want to be prime minister the NFP

which ranges from farle to Center left

is largely made up of four main parts

parties Franson bow the Communist Party

the greens and the Socialists so there

were some pretty strong differences of

opinion within the alliance but even if

and when the nfps members agree on their

Prime ministerial nominee there were a

number of reasons why they're unlikely

to govern for starters macron is under

no obligation to let the NFP govern and

by no means has to appoint their choice

as prime minister after all the NFP may

have won the most seats but it was far

from winning a majority either by seat

or vote share and even if macron did

appoint an NFP prime minister it would

have a very short lifespan because they

would be leading a minority government

that could be instantly taken down by a

censure vote which would likely be

supported by almost all the rest of the

National Assembly as the parties from

the center to the far right are

staunchly opposed to the idea of a

government involving melan Sean's France

unbowed so let's rule out an NFP

minority government another possibility

is some sort of so-called moderate

Coalition that might be able to eek out

or at least get close to a parliamentary

majority this hypothetical government

could involve parties on the center left

like the Socialists and perhaps the

greens the center so macron's own

Alliance and center right to WR parties

like the Republicans macron himself

seems to favor a moderate Coalition

writing in a letter to the French people

he called for dialogue and the building

of a majority between all parties that

quot identify with Republican

institutions rule of law

parliamentarianism a pro-european stance

and French Independence which is his way

of saying anyone but National rally and

France unbowed unfortunately for macron

this is easier said than done as there

are a number of potential roadblocks

first it would rely on splitting the new

popular front which has so far seemed

intent on sticking together since the

election and it would create something

of an awkward Alliance as the center as

part of the NFP campaigned on a platform

committed to reversing macron's Landmark

reforms plus senior Republican figures

don't seem keen on such an idea either

so let's move on to another possible

option A Center rightish minority

government featuring macron's Alliance

and the conservative Republicans now

this actually seems like quite a natural

fifth given the fact that out of all

opposition parties the Republicans have

been the most supportive of macron's

legislative agenda over the past couple

of years on top of this a number of

senior figures from macron's political

camp like former prime minister Edward

Philip have expressed support for such

an arrangement now it's worth pointing

out that the Republicans parliamentary

leader has said the party will not join

any government Coalition but he did

leave the door open to some form of

legislative pact however a government

based on a macron republican pact would

still be a minority one and could easily

be brought down by a sensior vote

something that the NFP would naturally

vote for and leen's National Valley has

signaled it would support too adding to

all this political chaos is the fact

that macron's own Alliance is

effectively on the brink of splintering

his allies including prime minister

Gabriel atal who remains in post as an

interim are clearly unhappy with

macron's decision to dissolve the

National Assembly and call the snap

election seeing it as an unforced error

additionally while some of macron's

allies like Edward Philip and interior

Minister Gerald Daran want to look to

the right I.E the Republicans for

parliamentary support the more Center or

Center left members of the macron camp

would much prefer a broader Coalition

involving the center left in fact

several ministers and deputies

reportedly plan to quit macron's

Renaissance party if it strikes a deal

exclusively with the Republicans so what

now well Emanuel macron is seemingly

taking a fairly hands-off approach say

he will give some time to the political

forces to build compromises and in the

meantime Gabriel atal will remain

interim prime minister but naming a new

prime minister and government will be

just the first challenge the

Constitution prevents the president from

calling a legislative election within a

year of the last one so trying to break

the political deadlock with an election

just isn't an option for now so one

future scenario could see a kind of

zombie minority government struggle

through the next year with tacit

approval from enough other parties to

not bring it down but struggling to push

ahead with any legislation alternatively

if no political consensus is reached any

new government could be brought down by

a senture vote as could its replacement

and its replacement and so on leading to

a series of short-lived governments

until a new election can be called one

final option is for mcon to appoint a

prime minister that's above Party

politics someone you might describe as a

technocrat this idea was endorsed by the

Republican Senate leader who said macron

should appoint a personality above Clans

and currents a calming personality and

incontestable by their competence their

experience their sense of the state and

the general interest but who that person

is or if they even exist remains to be

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