Retail Got Screwed on the BTC ETF's

Summary

Marone White 在视频中讨论了比特币ETFs在8天内损失超过10亿美元的情况，并分析了这一现象背后的原因。尽管有人认为这是机构投资者未参与的证据，但数据显示比特币ETFs实际上取得了巨大成功，吸引了大量资金流入。视频中还探讨了机构和散户投资者对比特币ETFs的参与情况，以及比特币ETFs对比特币生态系统的长期影响。

Takeaways

• 📉 比特币ETF在8天内损失超过10亿美元，引发了对其表现的质疑。
• 📈 尽管有损失，比特币ETF自2024年1月11日推出以来，迅速成为当年表现最好的ETF之一。
• 🏦 到2024年3月11日，比特币ETF的流入量在所有ETF中排名前十，显示出强劲的市场需求。
• 📊 截至2024年8月，比特币ETF的流入量超过170亿美元，显示出显著的市场参与度。
• 💸 尽管有短期的资金流出，但比特币ETF的整体资金流入仍然强劲，表明长期投资兴趣。
• 🤔 尽管有批评声音认为机构投资者并未大规模参与比特币ETF，但数据显示有大量零售投资者参与。
• 👴 比特币ETF为那些对比特币感兴趣但不愿意跨越技术障碍的普通投资者提供了便利的入场方式。
• 🌐 比特币ETF的广泛采用可能会推动比特币的进一步普及和接受。
• 🔍 尽管目前机构投资者的参与度不高，但比特币ETF的多样化持有者和持续的资金流入表明市场正在逐渐成熟。
• 🚀 随着比特币技术的进步和用户体验的改善，未来可能会有更多机构和个人投资者选择直接持有比特币，而非通过ETF。

Q & A

比特币ETF在2024年1月11日推出后的表现如何？

比特币ETF在2024年1月11日推出后迅速成为当年表现最好的ETF之一。

到2024年3月，比特币ETF的资金流入情况如何？

到2024年3月，比特币ETF的资金流入在所有ETF中排名三到四位，显示出强劲的资金流入。

2024年8月比特币ETF的资金流入总量是多少？

到2024年8月，比特币ETF的资金流入总量超过了170亿美元。

为什么说比特币ETF的资金流入量是一个重要的衡量指标？

资金流入量是衡量比特币ETF是否成功吸引投资者的关键指标，它反映了市场对比特币ETF的接受程度和投资者的兴趣。

Jim Bianco对比特币ETF的看法是什么？

Jim Bianco认为比特币ETF并没有吸引到机构投资者，而是更多地被小额投资者使用，他将这些ETF视为失败，因为它们没有达到预期的机构采用率。

比特币ETF的持有者中，机构投资者的比例是多少？

根据Jim Bianco的数据，机构投资者在比特币ETF的持有者中所占比例不到10%。

为什么说比特币ETF为普通投资者提供了进入市场的新途径？

比特币ETF为那些对比特币感兴趣但不愿意跨越技术障碍的普通投资者提供了一个简单、熟悉的投资渠道，他们可以通过传统的经纪账户购买。

比特币ETF的推出是否意味着比特币的广泛采用？

比特币ETF的推出吸引了大量普通投资者，这表明比特币正在被更广泛地采用，不仅仅是机构投资者。

比特币ETF的交易量与其他ETF相比如何？

尽管比特币ETF的平均交易额较小，但其交易量和美元交易额与其他成熟ETF相比仍然具有竞争力。

比特币ETF的未来展望如何？

比特币ETF的未来可能会受到更好的链上体验和自我保管解决方案的影响，这些可能会提供超越传统金融产品的优势。

Outlines

00:00

📉 比特币ETF资金流动分析

Marone White讨论了比特币ETF在2024年的表现，指出尽管有报道说比特币ETF在8天内损失超过10亿美元，但实际数据可能显示最大的采用正在发生。他强调ETF是采用的测试，并讨论了机构购买的数据点。比特币ETF自2024年1月11日推出以来，迅速成为当年表现最好的ETF之一。到了3月11日，Aaron Balchonis在推特上提到，BlackRock和Fidelity的ETF在3月份所有ETF的资金流入中排名三、四位。到了8月，资金流入超过了170亿美元。尽管9月份有10亿美元的资金流出，但全年的资金流入仍然达到了170亿美元，这在加密货币领域是一个巨大的数字。

05:02

📈 机构购买与比特币ETF

Marone White继续讨论了ETF的成功，并引用了Benjamin在Trading Pit节目中的话，说明了人们对ETF的期望。他指出，尽管有批评认为ETF没有吸引机构购买，但数据显示，到8月份为止，ETF的资金流入已经达到了预期的70%。他还提到，如果这种趋势持续下去，到年底可能会超过预期。Jim Bianco在推特上表示，ETF并没有吸引机构购买，而是成为了小额投资者的工具。他通过比较不同ETF的平均交易金额，指出比特币ETF的交易金额相对较小，但与其他ETF相比，比特币ETF的交易量和美元交易量仍然相当可观。

10:03

💼 机构与散户的比特币ETF持有情况

Marone White探讨了Jim Bianco关于比特币ETF的论点，即ETF并没有吸引机构购买，而是成为了小额投资者的工具。他引用了Matt Hougan的观点，指出尽管机构持有比例不高，但投资顾问持有的金额仍然相当可观。他还提到，比特币ETF的持有者数量远超过其他ETF，这表明有广泛的机构参与。此外，他强调，尽管机构持有比例不高，但散户投资者的参与度正在增加，这是比特币采用的一个重要指标。他还提到了Benjamin的观点，即ETF为那些对比特币感兴趣但不愿意跨越技术障碍的人提供了一个进入市场的途径。

15:04

🚀 比特币的未来采用趋势

Marone White总结了比特币ETF的采用情况，并提出了对未来的看法。他指出，尽管有人认为比特币ETF的采用可能不会持续，但目前的数据显示，无论是机构还是散户，比特币的采用都在增加。他还提到了比特币技术上的进展，如Ordinals、Rust、Layer 2解决方案等，这些进展可能会提供更好的用户体验，从而进一步推动比特币的采用。他鼓励观众关注频道，以获取更多关于比特币采用和相关项目的信息。

Keywords

💡比特币ETF

比特币ETF指的是追踪比特币价格表现的交易所交易基金。在视频中，比特币ETF的推出被视为比特币市场成熟和机构投资者参与的一个标志。视频中提到，比特币ETF在2024年1月11日推出，并迅速成为当年表现最好的ETF之一。

💡机构投资者

机构投资者通常指的是养老基金、保险公司、共同基金等大型投资实体。视频中讨论了机构投资者对比特币ETF的参与程度，以及这是否意味着比特币被更广泛地接受。

💡流入量

流入量指的是资金流入到某个金融产品，如ETF中的总额。视频中提到比特币ETF在2024年8月有超过170亿美元的流入量，这表明了市场对比特币ETF的强烈兴趣。

💡流出量

流出量与流入量相对，指的是资金从金融产品中撤出的总额。视频中提到了比特币ETF在9月份有超过10亿美元的流出量，这可能是市场情绪变化的一个信号。

💡零售投资者

零售投资者指的是个人投资者，与机构投资者相对。视频中强调了零售投资者对比特币ETF的兴趣，这可能表明比特币正在被更广泛的普通人群接受。

💡技术鸿沟

技术鸿沟指的是普通用户与技术专家之间的知识和理解差异。视频中提到，比特币ETF为那些对直接持有比特币感到犹豫的投资者提供了一个更容易理解和接近的方式。

💡自我保管

自我保管指的是投资者自己管理他们的加密货币私钥和资产，而不是依赖第三方。视频中提到，随着比特币的自我保管体验和二层解决方案的改进，可能会减少对比特币ETF的需求。

💡程序化

程序化通常指的是通过智能合约在区块链上自动执行的交易或协议。视频中提到了比特币的二层解决方案和智能合约的潜力，这可能会为比特币带来新的用例和用户。

💡流动性

流动性指的是资产能够轻松买卖而不显著影响其市场价格的能力。视频中提到了比特币ETF的流动性，这是衡量其市场接受度的一个重要指标。

💡市场接受度

市场接受度指的是一个产品或资产被市场广泛接受的程度。视频中通过讨论比特币ETF的表现和投资者的参与，来探讨比特币的市场接受度。

Highlights

比特币ETF在短短8天内损失超过10亿美元，引发了对其失败的讨论。

ETFs是采用度的测试，批评它们需要准确衡量它们在这方面是否成功。

数据显示，比特币ETF可能已经实现了最大的采用。

比特币ETF自2024年1月11日推出以来，迅速成为当年表现最好的ETF之一。

到2024年3月11日，两只比特币ETF在所有ETF中排名前十。

截至2024年8月，比特币ETF流入资金超过170亿美元。

即使在9月份的8天内流出了10亿美元，比特币ETF的年流入资金仍然达到170亿美元。

比特币ETF的流入资金与市场预期相比，已经达到了70%的最高预期。

比特币ETF的平均流入资金约为每天1010万美元。

如果这种趋势持续到年底，比特币ETF的流入资金可能超过280亿美元。

尽管有批评声音，但比特币ETF的购买者可能并非完全是机构投资者。

Jim Bianco指出，比特币ETF的持有者主要是小额投资者，而非机构。

比特币ETF的平均交易额约为12,000美元，远低于其他ETF。

尽管机构投资者的参与度不高，但比特币ETF的持有者数量超过1000家机构。

比特币ETF为那些对比特币感兴趣但不愿意跨越技术障碍的普通投资者提供了进入市场的途径。

比特币ETF的成功可能预示着更广泛的采用，而不仅仅是机构投资者的参与。

未来，更好的链上体验和自我保管可能对ETF构成威胁，因为它们提供了超越ETF的用户体验和功能。

比特币ETF的采用和未来发展将继续受到市场趋势和技术创新的影响。

Transcripts

hey there it's Marone white and did you

hear that the Bitcoin ETFs lost over $1

billion in 8 days I mean what a failure

seems the institutions never arrived the

Boomers aren't buy at least that's the

narrative making the rounds but I don't

think that's the entire story ETFs are a

test of adoption any criticism needs to

accurately measure if they've succeeded

on that front and believe it or not the

data may suggest the biggest adoption is

already happening so let's review how

successful the ETFs have been today look

at the data points behind institutional

buying and discuss why institutional

adoption might not be needed in the end

but first we're going to look at the

flows so the Bitcoin ETFs launched

January 11th

2024 and quickly became some of the best

performing ETF of the year and just two

months later in March 11th we have a

tweet here from Aaron balconis talking

specifically about that he says two of

the ETS ibit black Rock's offering and

fbtc Fidel's offering are ranked three

and four in the top 10 for flows for

march across all ETFs and I think part

of this other part of this Twitter

thread he talks about the fact that

maybe some of this could been expected

six to nine months or even a year end

but to come as early as it did it's just

well it's just incredible so already you

know in March we were talking about how

successful these were being now you fast

forward a little bit take it all the way

to August and you experienced over 17

billion in inflow I want to show you

this next slide this this is an image

that comes from Far Side investors they

maintain about a two-e rolling average

or rolling schedule of the the actual

inflows for each of the ETFs you can see

here on the bottom it actually has the

flows inflows coming into ibit fbtc IIT

having about 20 billion and if you go

all the way to the right you can see

gbtc grayscale which had a which had

head rise right start started with a

larger number it's seeing 20 billion in

outflow even with that said you have

about just 17 billion of inflow for the

year and this includes the weeks that we

talked about that billion dollars that

came out in the eight days in September

so I mean under any measure we're

talking about 17 billions of dollars

it's a lot of money so now we're in

crypto a lot of people think to

themselves well 17 billion that's not a

lot well you need to put the context in

to what the expectations were going into

the ETF launch you see a lot of people

have been talking about the

institutional launch or the ETF launch

for a long longtime years in fact and

you had the Skeptics who saying it

wasn't going to do well at all and then

at the beginning before it even launched

you had people starting to talk about

what those numbers would actually look

like and Benjamin on a recent episode of

trading pit he actually explained what

the expectations look like let's take a

look at that clip to hear what people

were actually thinking before these

actually went live so the whole

expectation when Black Rock filed for

the ETFs uh the 2024 expectation even

from Eric and a lot of of prime

brokerages almost the majority of the

ODC debts coinbase all included the

expectation was 24 billion on a hyper

optimistic upper limit actually so um

that was supposed to be end of

20124 that was the expectation that in a

period of 12 months we may hit 24

billion in net

inflows if all goes great so for a full

year what they were looking for was 24

billion now we're at the we're in August

and actually the table I just shared

here it's actually in September you have

17 billion which is roughly about 70% of

the highest expectation just to give you

a little bit more perspective on what

this might mean if you look down here

the average inflow is about 101 million

per trading day if you take that and

look at the the remainder of the year if

that continued that'd be about 11

billion which would net out to about 28

billion exceeding the highest water Mark

that they had by 4 billion I think by

those measures you'd have to say that

these ETFs have been a success from an

adoption perspective but to be fair a

lot of the discussion isn't just about

flows it's a question of who's actually

buying these ETFs and that's where a lot

of the criticism has come from they're

saying are the institutions actually

buying well now According to Jim biano

Bianco micro research the answer is no

see after the the the one .2 billion

redemptions that came out in September

the ones that you're seeing right here

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here to get started let's get back to

the show Jim put out this this tweet

which was a uh I think about eight

different tweets actually trying to

summarize or detail the points he was

making that these ETFs have been you

know for lack of a better term a

non-success they've been a failure on

the front of actually getting uh

institutional adoption he says it's not

an adoption vehicle instead of small

tourist tool and onchain is returning to

trafi so he's calling $ 17 billion in uh

infl flows a uh tourist tool but we're

going to dismiss that for a moment I

want to go through the the Four Points

he notes Here which summarize all eight

of his tweets says inflows are now

outflows yep you're going to see the

outflows agree with that hollers have

recorded losses well yeah that's true

but anybody who buys an ETF and then

sees the price decline is going to have

unrealized losses on that asset that

applies to any asset not just Bitcoin

you can dismiss that advisors are less

than 10% the Holdings and the average

trate size is now 12,000 these are

interesting points that we can actually

get into let's actually understand does

this support his point that no

institutions have arrived and it's just

a small tourist tool let's get into it

so the first I want to actually start

with his discussion on oh let me bring

this up all right the discussion that he

has here about small purchases so what

he's done here is he's got a chart he

has uh several different ETFs on here

including the Spy the triple q and what

I think is the most relevant which is a

gold ETF GLD the very the y- axis that

we see here these are actually trade

amounts uh and the average trade amount

and then this is over a period of time

so you see the larger ETFs you've got uh

spy you got the triple Q then the middle

part you actually have the gold one uh

which actually is in gold and on the

bottom you see Bitcoin so he's

absolutely right very much smaller

amounts being applied to bitcoin on a

fairly consistent basis we're seeing

consistent purchase ing uh and and not a

lot of variation on the actual amounts

that are coming into the the ETFs and

definitely much smaller when you compare

to some of these other ETFs I mean if

you look at gold gold comes at about 60k

per trade whereas the Bitcoin ETFs are

about 12,000 that's about a 5x

difference but then you should ask the

question is that the whole story not

entirely when you actually look at some

of the other metrics around these ETFs

Bitcoin or at least ibit versus gold

actually Stacks up pretty well I mean if

you look at volume here you've got 26

million daily share volume for ibit

versus only 6 million for GLD and the

Daily Dollar volume for ibet is sitting

at just under a billion whereas GLD is

over 1.4 roughly 1.4 so it's definitely

smaller but it's not as if it's a 5x

difference or 10x difference bear in

mind GLD is about 20 years old and iit's

got about eight months so here Jim is is

definitely pointing out a correct

statistic but he's not giv a full part

of the story to try and really talk to

you about are these people really you

know buying these are they really retail

people uh and does this actually say

that there's no adoption I think there

is adoption but fair enough it's

actually smaller smaller purchases

whether these are serious buyers or not

time will tell but let's actually get

into the next part that he's actually

going into which is are the institutions

actually coming and here I think he

actually has a better argument uh that

actually again has a few holes in it so

what he does he's got a chart here which

I believe is going to be coming from um

uh well it's it's some reporting uh

maybe it's coming from a Bloomberg

terminal uh but what it actually shows

is for ibit uh which I've included here

he also does it I believe for Fidelity

and for Grace scale it does a breakdown

of the institution types that actually

own the ETF and here he has the hedge

fund managers which are about 8%

investment buyers are 7% Brokers of 2%

all the others are very very small

number the M middle column is actual

shares and then the percentage ownership

is going to be the outstanding shares

the total shares outstanding so Jim

looks at this and says listen you don't

have any investment advisor it's only 7%

8% going to hedge funds and they're more

doing speculation and brokerages own

being nothing and we got you know maybe

10% if you calculate all the other uh

institution types owning

this well there's an interesting point

of rebuttal here which is is yes this is

only 7% going to institutions but how

valuable is it to the marketplace and

here Matt howan the CIO bitwise put some

context around this you see he points

out that the amount that's actually gone

in from investment advisor perspect

specifically equals about $11.45 billion

and that $1.45 billion if you look at

all the ETFs launched in

2024 it's actually the second largest

amount going to investment advisers beat

out beaten out by just one ETF that he

notes Here which is

klmt so you actually have quite a bit

going into investment advisors when you

compare ibit to the other ETFs that are

out there but there's actually more to

the diversity story and this comes in

from a tweet again from Eric balconis

the um excuse me a senior ETF Analyst at

Bloomberg he points out that in his own

words the ETFs are freak of nature when

it comes to ownership and this is a

tweet he put out just uh in September

9th Bitcoin ETFs collectively have over

1,000 institutional holders ibit

specifically has 661 holders well how

unique is that well if you compare it to

the other ETFs that that launch within a

given year it's not uncommon for them to

have just two holders which he notes

Here got 661 holders of ibit versus two

for the common ETF and again the whole

conversation here is about adoption and

whether or not the institutions are

buying it well it's important to note

that you have 661 holders of these ETFs

maybe in very small amounts but they are

holding something so when Jim's saying

that there's no there's no adoption from

an institution perspective he's he's not

really adding that context and I think

that's important two more points here

you know when we talk about the

allocation many people will say this is

a highrisk asset very volatile Le based

on historic parameters therefore you

should allocate a very small amount to

it 1 to 2% of a portfolio this can lead

to average much smaller average purchase

amounts right and we're still getting up

to speed again we're still in the 8

months here so while Jim does have a

point that it's not as if we have 50%

adoption by institutions of these assets

I think he's not giving a full picture

of the actual institution adoption but

what about from a retail perspective

because I think this is the actual story

that's not getting any air time at all

and it needs to because what we're

really seeing here is that normies are

buying Bitcoin in the billions so if you

do you know back in the napkin

calculations you got 17 billion in flows

that have come in divided by 12,000 the

average trade that's 1.4 million is that

1.4 million individuals that have come

into Bitcoin I don't think so it

probably needs to be discounted people

buying multiple trades but how much of

that is an individual buyer did it did

it on board 300,000 500,000 even 100,000

that's a significant number of retail

people that are coming into the

ecosystem and the point is that why are

they coming into the ecosystem now

rather than not doing it before well we

actually have an explanation for this

and this again comes from Benjamin on a

recent episode of trading pit where he

explains well how his uncle actually

bought the ETF and so let's have a look

at that clip now a lot of these guys are

starting to buy the ETF I know this

because my uncle bought a Bitcoin ETF

the unle has not for years yeah like I

we were neigh he never bought a piece of

Bitcoin but he's bought a Bitcoin ETF at

58k right maybe he's wrong but that

doesn't matter he says it's a long-term

hold now for him why the impression that

the ETF vehicles have given him look you

can get it and you can put it in your

brokerage account you can keep it don't

worry about the custody and if you die

it it can you know go to your kids don't

so that opens up a very different tour

what Benjamin's really pointing out is

that these ETFs are giving people that

were Bitcoin curious a way to get into

the market they weren't willing to cross

the technical Chasm to understand seed

phrases to understand you know how how

to manage this from a custody

perspective what happens if you die and

you need to pass it on to people they

didn't want to do that but once it's in

their brokerage account and they can

simply hit buy from an ETF perspective

they're in so we're now opening up

Bitcoin to an entire class of people and

I think you could call the institutional

Bitcoin is being adopted right adoption

is actually happening and by focusing

just on the institutions we're missing

the broader point which is that more

people are getting into the ecosystem

now what does this look like going

forward great question listen the story

isn't over and Jim may be proven right

in the coming months or years if the

flows slower the trends reverse and the

momentum of early 2024 comes to a close

in mate I don't know it's possible that

some of the the bullishness in 2024 is

all because they're expecting a you know

Bull Run in 2024 and 2025 and if that

doesn't materialize They Run to the

Hills that's that's possible Right but

from right now looking at the data as we

have I think it's pretty hard to argue

that we're not seeing actual material

adoption of Bitcoin being you know the

tourist people as Jim calling it that

are just going to come and wait and see

how well it does be it the people who

call it just fake Bitcoin or what I'm

calling institutional Bitcoin you have

buyers they're coming in their uncles

their aunts maybe even grandmas I don't

know but adoption is actually happening

and I want to leave you with one final

perspective on this that I think may be

valuable and hardening to any of those

who are really interested in

decentralization the real threat to

these ETFs and their performance May at

some point come from better onchain

experiences and self custody see I in a

recent interview with Isabelle Fox and

Duke we discussed the potential of

ordinals ruins brc2 and a host of l2s

for Bitcoin such as the art Network that

can radically enhance what Bitcoin can

deliver from what it does today really

giving us some level of programmability

which today you know to date has only

been available on other L1 such as

ethereum and salana and while it's still

early days and it's all very speculative

these projects might actually deliver

better ux experiences the kind of

experiences that finally eliminate the

technical hurdles and offer Defi and

other capabilities that exceed what

trafi can do today and at that point it

may be too expensive to actually hold

your Bitcoin with the ETFs and then we

won't really care about the institutions

will we all right well time will tell I

suggest you subscribe to the channel as

we bring on guests and we bring on these

ideas we talk about them every week

discuss them and other projects that are

going to be relevant to the continual

adoption in the space but for now this

is Marone white see you next time