Sea Rising and Floods - Tremendous Threat Of Water | Documentary
Summary
TLDRThis video script discusses the escalating threat of sea level rise, with potential for 10 meters increase, causing drastic coastal changes and annual losses up to a trillion dollars. It highlights the vulnerability of cities like New York and Hamburg, the underestimated risks, and the urgent need for political action. Experts from Columbia University and the German Climate Research Center emphasize the acceleration of sea level rise, the impact on weather patterns, and the challenges in protecting coastal cities. The script also addresses the psychological distance society feels from the issue and the action deficit despite abundant knowledge, concluding with the stark reality that if greenhouse gas emissions aren't reduced, we may face losing entire habitats.
Takeaways
- 🌊 Sea levels are rising at an accelerating rate, with potentially drastic impacts on coastlines and coastal cities.
- 💸 The economic impact of sea level rise could be enormous, with annual losses in coastal cities potentially reaching one trillion dollars.
- 🏙️ New York City is particularly vulnerable to sea level rise, with its underground infrastructure at risk of rapid flooding.
- 🌪️ Hurricane Sandy in 2012 demonstrated the reality of the flooding risks that scientists had been warning about for years.
- 🌊 Rising sea levels exacerbate the power of waves, increasing the pressure on coastal defenses and the risk of flooding.
- 🏙️ Many major cities, including Venice, San Francisco, and London, are at risk due to their proximity to sea level.
- ⏳ Despite the urgency, coastal urbanization and population growth continue to outpace that of inland regions.
- 🌡️ Warmer waters and rising sea levels are accelerating climate cycles, leading to more frequent extreme weather events.
- 🧐 There is a risk perception paradox where people associate climate change with storm tides but may not recognize other related threats.
- 🌍 The intergovernmental panel on climate change warns that without significant reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, sea level rise could exceed 1 meter by 2100.
- ⏳ Coastal protection measures have a finite lifetime and may not be sustainable in the face of continued sea level rise and climate change.
Q & A
海平面上升的最坏情况是什么?
-最坏情况下,到2100年海平面可能上升超过2米,这将导致沿海地区的洪水频率和强度显著增加,对低洼岛屿、沿海城市和社区构成严重威胁。这可能导致数亿人流离失所,沿海生态系统和文化遗产地受损,以及重大的经济损失。
海平面上升对沿海城市意味着什么?
-海平面上升意味着沿海城市将面临更频繁和更严重的洪水威胁,城市基础设施和建筑可能遭受破坏,沿海旅游和经济活动可能受到影响。此外,沿海地区的居民可能需要迁移,文化遗产地可能面临风险。
我们如何应对海平面上升的威胁?
-应对海平面上升的威胁需要采取多种策略,包括加强海岸防护措施,如建设海堤和恢复湿地;提高城市规划和建筑设计的适应性;加强科学研究以更好地理解海平面上升的过程和影响;以及通过减少温室气体排放来减缓全球变暖。
海平面上升对全球人口的影响是什么?
-海平面上升可能导致居住在低洼沿海地区的数亿人口面临洪水和侵蚀的风险,这可能迫使人们迁移,影响他们的生计和安全。此外,沿海地区的经济增长和社区发展可能受到阻碍。
海平面上升的科学研究有哪些最新进展?
-最新的科学研究显示,海平面上升的速度可能比之前预测的要快,这主要是由于冰川和冰盖的加速融化,以及海洋热膨胀的增加。研究还强调了采取适应性措施和减少温室气体排放的紧迫性。
海平面上升对经济资产和基础设施有何影响?
-海平面上升可能导致沿海地区的经济资产和基础设施遭受严重损失,包括房产、交通系统、供水和排水设施。此外,沿海旅游和渔业可能受到负面影响,进而影响相关行业的就业和收入。
海平面上升对沿海生态系统和栖息地有何影响?
-海平面上升可能导致沿海湿地、红树林和珊瑚礁等生态系统的退化或丧失,这些生态系统对于维持生物多样性、提供海岸保护和碳储存服务至关重要。生态系统的破坏还可能影响依赖这些栖息地的物种和人类社区。
海平面上升对小岛屿发展中国家有何影响?
-对于小岛屿发展中国家,海平面上升可能导致岛屿部分或全部被淹没,威胁到国家的领土完整和居民的生活。这可能迫使居民迁移,对国家的经济发展和文化遗产造成长期影响。
海平面上升对文化遗产地有何影响?
-海平面上升可能导致沿海地区的文化遗产地遭受侵蚀、洪水和盐水入侵的威胁,这可能破坏历史建筑、考古遗址和文化景观,影响这些遗产地的教育和旅游价值。
海平面上升对全球不同地区的影响是否相同?
-海平面上升对全球不同地区的影响并不相同,这取决于各地区的地理位置、经济发展水平、人口密度和适应能力。例如,低洼的岛国和小岛屿发展中国家可能面临更大的风险,而一些沿海城市和地区可能由于更强的适应能力和资源而能够更好地应对这些挑战。
Outlines
🌊 Rising Sea Levels Threaten Coastal Cities
This paragraph discusses the accelerating sea level rise and its potential to dramatically alter coastlines, with a possible 10 meters increase. It highlights the economic impact, with annual losses in coastal cities potentially reaching one trillion dollars. The urgency for solutions is emphasized, as some areas may become unsalvageable. The focus is on New York, where geophysicist Klaus Jakob's research indicates the city's vulnerability. The paragraph also references Hurricane Sandy as a turning point in recognizing the reality of such disasters, causing significant damage and prompting a reevaluation of protective measures.
🌧️ Increased Wave Power and Flooding Risks
The second paragraph focuses on the increased frequency of extreme water levels along Germany's coast and the impact of rising sea levels on wave behavior. It explains how higher water levels can lead to greater wave power and increased pressure on coastal defenses, potentially causing them to fail. The paragraph uses a simulation to illustrate how even a minor sea level rise can turn a once-in-a-century flooding event into a common occurrence. It also discusses the specific challenges faced by cities like Hamburg and New York, where rising sea levels exacerbate the threat of storm tides and heavy rainfall.
🌡️ Measuring and Predicting Sea Level Changes
This paragraph delves into the methods of measuring sea level changes, with historical data dating back to the 17th century and more precise measurements since the 19th century. It discusses the acceleration of sea level rise, from an initial 1 millimeter per year to around 3 millimeters annually. The importance of accurate data for creating climate models is emphasized, and the role of human behavior in determining CO2 emissions and its impact on climate change is highlighted. The paragraph also touches on the challenges of predicting future sea level rise, considering the complexity of Earth's systems and the influence of human activities.
❄️ Melting Ice Sheets and the Global Impact
The fourth paragraph addresses the contribution of melting ice sheets, particularly in Greenland, to global sea level rise. It describes the massive size and weight of the Greenland ice sheet and notes the increase in ice loss since the turn of the century. The paragraph discusses the intergovernmental panel on climate change's most pessimistic estimate of a 1-meter sea level rise this century, but also mentions that this figure may be an underestimate. The focus is on the urgency of addressing climate change to prevent catastrophic consequences for coastal regions and the need for global cooperation to mitigate these effects.
🏰 Coastal Protection and the Dilemma of Retreat
This paragraph discusses the challenges of coastal protection in the face of rising sea levels, using Venice as a case study. It describes the MOSE project, an ambitious effort to protect Venice from flooding, but notes that updated predictions of sea level rise may render the project inadequate. The paragraph also touches on the broader implications for coastal regions worldwide, where the decision to invest in protection or to retreat from vulnerable areas is becoming increasingly pressing. It highlights the social, economic, and ethical considerations involved in these decisions and the potential for different countries to采取不同的 approaches based on their resources and cultural values.
🌍 Global Efforts and the Need for Lifestyle Changes
The final paragraph emphasizes the global nature of the sea level rise problem and the need for a collective response. It discusses the potential consequences of inaction, including the loss of entire habitats and the displacement of millions of people. The paragraph calls for a change in lifestyle and a shift in societal priorities to address the root causes of climate change. It suggests that while coastal protection measures can provide temporary solutions, a long-term strategy requires a global commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting to the inevitable impacts of a changing climate.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Sea level rise
💡Coastal cities
💡Climate change
💡Hurricane Sandy
💡Greenland ice sheet
💡Adaptation
💡Moser project
💡Antarctic ice sheet
💡Storm tides
💡Protective measures
Highlights
Sea level rise is accelerating and could dramatically change coastlines.
Worst-case scenarios predict up to 10 meters of sea level rise.
Annual losses in coastal cities could reach one trillion dollars.
Some areas may become impossible to save due to rising sea levels.
Klaus Jakob's research at Columbia University focuses on the risks of rising sea levels.
New York is particularly threatened and serves as a model for modern large cities.
The city's lifelines running underground make it vulnerable to flooding.
Hurricane Sandy in 2012 demonstrated the reality of the scientists' apocalyptic scenario.
Rising sea levels can cause flooding even with a slight increase.
Coastal urbanization and population growth continue at an alarming rate.
Major cities like Venice, San Francisco, and London are at risk due to their proximity to sea level.
Scientists at Siegen University in Germany observe increasing frequency of extreme water levels.
Rising sea levels amplify wave power and increase pressure on coastal defenses.
Even a minor sea level rise can turn flooding into a common occurrence.
Hamburg faces a new problem with rain and rising sea levels.
Climate change awareness is linked to personal experience and perceived threats like storm tides.
Rising sea levels and extreme weather events are accelerating due to climate change.
Sea level measurements since the 19th century show a consistent rise.
Future projections are made using climate models and supercomputers.
Human behavior is a critical factor in determining CO2 emissions and climate change.
The Greenland ice sheet is losing mass, contributing to global sea level rise.
The Antarctic ice sheet contains enough water to raise sea levels by 58 meters.
Coastal protection is a cost-benefit calculation that may lead to abandoning certain regions.
Venice's MOSE project is an example of an extreme engineering solution to flooding.
Adaptation measures have a finite lifetime and may not be sustainable in the long term.
Climate change and sea level rise require a change in lifestyle to prevent losing entire habitats.
Transcripts
over the last few years sea level rise
has been accelerating
and this is only the start of a
development which will change our
coastlines dramatically
it may be 10 meters of sea level rise
what does the worst case scenario look
like
annual losses could be one trillion
dollars per year just in the coastal
cities
how much time do we have left to find
Solutions
some areas will be impossible to save
so how are we supposed to defend
ourselves against the scene
cannot engineer ourselves out of
syllable eyes
politicians have to act
geophysicist Klaus Jakob from Columbia
University in New York is studying the
risks posed by rising sea levels New
Yorkers particularly threatened by sea
level rise and jakob's research could
prevent damage costing billions of
dollars in 2012 his work saw him
included in Time magazine's list of the
world's most important people
New York is regarded as a model and
reference point for modern large cities
but the big apple has a problem
around the year 2000
some scientists here in New York got
together and we've realized that we have
to really raise the public awareness of
the risks that are coming our way
[Music]
we chose a generic 100 Year storm coming
into the city on the computer it was
modeled
when he had the first results we went
back to our stakeholders and said uh oh
you have a problem look at this what we
got
they said oops
New York's Achilles heel is that the
city's lifelines run Underground
we found out
to our surprise that it takes only about
40 minutes for the subway system to
flood
for a good 10 years the simulation
presented by Klaus yarkov and his
colleagues was treated as mere
scientific speculation
but Hurricane Sandy which struck New
York in 2012 turned the scientists
apocalyptic scenario into Stark reality
water actually just pouring over the sea
wall now
one hundred thousand buildings were
flooded there were 44 fertilities and
millions of people went without
electricity for weeks on end Hurricane
Sandy caused damage totaling 19 billion
dollars the city was literally in deep
water
such an extreme event should only be
expected once in a hundred years but
this assumption is no longer valid
in Klaus yakov's opinion even a slight
rise in the sea level will be sufficient
to cause flooding on this scale once
again
there are scenarios out for as much as
nine feet
three meters of civil rights by the end
of the century and that's extremely
scary
yet despite this growing risk Coastal
Engineers have calculated that
urbanization and population growth are
still taking place four and a half times
faster in coastal regions than in the
interior of the country
there are 136 coastal cities with more
than a million people in the world the
population of that of those cities was
about 400 million people and about 10 40
million of those people actually live in
the coastal flood plain with current sea
levels
rising sea levels could change the world
map Venice San Francisco London many
major cities lie just above sea level
the ocean has become a threat unless
protective measures are taken whole
towns will have to be abandoned
[Music]
so far the world's coastlines haven't
changed all that much
only occasionally does the sea Advance
beyond the shore mainly when the storm
tide occurs but this is happening more
and more often scientists at Siegen
University in Germany see this as the
first phase of a steadily accelerating
process
what we have observed on Germany's Coast
over the last few decades is that
extreme water levels are occurring with
far greater frequency than average water
levels
we still know too little about wave
Behavior at higher water levels
simulates this change in a wave Channel
because the seabed is rising as the wave
passes over it it develops friction the
wave deforms and breaks normally this
happens before it reaches the Coast
we have found that when the sea level
rises because of the greater volume of
water they are carrying many waves which
would normally break while in front of a
dike can now reach it greatly increasing
the pressure on the dike and perhaps
even surging over it
the higher water level clearly amplifies
wave power the higher the water the
later the waves break and the greater
the force with which they strike a
built-up coastline
even a minor sea level rise can
massively increase wave impact
let's assume we are today here with sea
level and here comes a storm along so
it floods everything that's at this
elevation or below but now we have
sea level here so we need only a smaller
storm to flood the same area or we get
the same storm it's much higher
even a sea level rise of just a few
decimeters makes flooding no longer a
once in a century event but a normal
occurrence in New York the rise of
around one meter results in repeated
flooding
entire mega cities underwater
a science fiction scenario perhaps as in
this simulation
or are we looking here at the future
[Music]
foreign
[Music]
along with New York lying just six
meters above sea level Hamburg is one of
the city's most threatened
up to now protective measures have
served as defense against storm tides
but when the sea level rises Hamburg
also faces a totally different problem
rain
social scientist biata rata studies risk
awareness where climate change is
concerned she asked people in Hamburg
what they see as the biggest threat to
their City
[Music]
first and foremost it's a storm tide
this stems from personal experience or
from what they have heard from other
people personal experience plays an
extremely important role
her survey shows that two out of three
people in Hamburg believe that the
biggest threat to their City from
climate change comes in the form of
storm Tides
[Music]
after the horrific storm tide of 1962
the city adapted to the threat
[Music]
today catwalks enable anyone living in
an exposed area to reach the safety of
protective walls without getting their
feet wet
[Music]
but warmer water and rising sea levels
are speeding up the entire climate cycle
extreme weather events will increase
like heavy rainfalls for instance
thank you
basically what happens with heavy
rainfall events is that increased
insulation over the ocean produces
evaporation processes which cause
moisture to rise into the atmosphere
wind then blows this cloud of moisture
towards the land as long as the cloud is
over the ocean nothing happens
but when the cloud reaches something
which causes it to rise its retention
capacity diminishes and Rain then Falls
locally for example on hamburgers
the whole of Hamburg underwater
torrential rain could quickly prove too
much for the city's drainage system
new stormtite walls are being built but
they still don't offer Hamburg adequate
protection from the consequences of an
accelerating weather cycle
here in Hamburg we have what we call a
risk perception Paradox people like to
associate climate change with storm
tights so because they are safe from
them they think they are also safe from
climate change in general
it's not only Hamburg that will have to
face up to a new disaster scenario the
faster sea levels rise the greater the
influencers will have on the weather
with unforeseeable consequences
ultimately much will depend on the
degree of sea level rise
but how can the sea level and changes to
it be measured
the first sea level measurements date
back to the 17th century since roughly
the middle of the 19th century we have
had 70 or 80 gauges worldwide which we
can use to determine the level of the
ocean
one of these gauges is on heligaland it
has been measuring changes in the sea
level ever since 1885. it has produced
tens of thousands of data which are
stored in an archive in turning in
Northern Germany
[Music]
this data treasure is the sole source
available to researchers for determining
with millimeter accuracy whether the
annual sea level rise in Germany belongs
to Natural fluctuation or is already
part of a long-term Trend the figures
are clear the sea level has been rising
ever since we began measuring it
since the late 19th century the sea
level has been rising faster and faster
initially at a rate of one millimeter
per year but since the 1960s and 70s it
has been accelerating again and the
increase now stand at around three
millimeters a year
historic data are also utilized in
Hamburg at the German climate Research
Center the
the krz they form the basis for climate
models
here future projections have been made
ever since the late 80s
especially scientific knowledge coupled
with state-of-the-art computer
technology enables complex model
calculations to be made with these
simulations scientists predict what
impact the constant increase in
greenhouse gases will have on the
atmosphere and on Ocean levels
foreign with each new generation of
supercomputers projections are getting
more accurate
our specialist from Hamburg is one of
those who interpret this data for the
intergovernmental panel on climate
change as a marine researcher she's also
the co-author of the last Special Report
on the oceans she knows the models
exactly we have precise knowledge of
what has happened over the last 100
years we also know all about the
physical processes concerning water and
ice but predicting the future is like
looking into a crystal ball
in order to predict sea level rise first
and foremost temperature development
must be taken into consideration
in addition the interaction of various
forces in the earth system has to be
calculated ultimately however one factor
is Paramount human behavior
how do we assume how Society will behave
because CO2 emissions which Drive
climate change are determined by society
and that is what makes everything so
difficult
for
two years a supercomputer was fed data
for current projections
the development through to 2100 is
presented in three scenarios from a best
to a worst case
researchers have no problem explaining
sea level rise to date as the oceans
heat up the water expands but a totally
different element could soon become a
driving force
look
researchers are concerned at the
Dynamics of the Greenland ice Shield
as a result of global warming the
massive ice which The Shield releases
into the ocean every year is increasing
Greenland's ice Shield covers an
enormous 1.8 million square kilometers
in some places it's more than 1.6
kilometers thick and weighs around 2.7
million gigatons
until well into the 1990s the ice Mass
remained roughly constant
but since the turn of the century on
average Greenland has been losing
266 gigatons of ice a year and is thus
contributing to the global rise in sea
levels at a rate of 0.7 millimeters a
year
it's an extreme situation we must assume
that all the glaciers have melted along
with all the ice masses in the Arctic
and the Antarctic
and that this water has flown into the
ocean then we have a rise in the sea
level
for years now researchers have been
warning of the impact of global warming
on sea level rise
predictions are constantly being revised
upwards
for this Century the most pessimistic
estimate by the intergovernmental panel
on climate change is a rise of 1 meter
ten but even this figure is questionable
there seems to be no upward limit
over 100 scientists from 36 countries
played a part in producing the last
Special Report on the ocean and
cryosphere in a changing climate
it involved evaluating 7 000
Publications from the last five years
and resulted in a report running to some
800 pages
[Music]
and what will actually be done with the
report it was published with a lot of
hype there were numerous press releases
in a press conference
but we merely took note of everything
and then the next world climate Summit
took place in Madrid and well and yeah
it's not about knowledge about even more
accurate knowledge politicians couldn't
give a hoot whether a glacier is melting
at a rate of two or three millimeters a
year they decide on whether to impose
restrictions on the car industry like
promoting electric vehicles we have
produced a vast amount of information
over the last 15 years what we have
today is not an information deficit but
an action deficit
social scientists call this phenomenon
the concept of psychological distance
you can't feel statistics we distance
ourselves from the fate of the
individual from the fate of small
islands and Coastal inhabitants
[Music]
but how much longer can we continue to
do that
few cities depend more on exact
forecasts for their existence than
Venice
some parts of Venice are not even one
meter above water ever since sea level
rise began together Pace the city has
also suffered from increased flooding
now every centimeter is of crucial
importance
Century Venice has a solution
the venetians are plagued by a trauma
November 1966 the sea level Rose to 1
meter 80. scientists calculated that
such an extreme storm tide would occur
only once every 200 years even so the
city wanted to take defensive steps to
prevent flooding on such a scale ever
happening again
Engineers came up with a concept which
in an emergency would isolate venice's
Lagoon completely from the sea this
bulwark was given the name Moser
Mauser lies on the seabed should a storm
tide occur 78 floodgates will be filled
with air and forced upwards closing the
Lagoon and sealing off the city from the
sea
brilliant solution
but mosa has one drawback it could be
too low
we have a dimensioned the system
considering the ipcc
scenarios
in the
late 90s and we have considered the
worst scenarios that is 60 centimeters
of sea level rise in The Next Century
but forecasts have changed the
prediction for this century is now a sea
level rise of more than one meter then
Moser which cost five and a half billion
euros would no longer be able to protect
Venice
if
there will be two meters of silver rice
we have to
we have to do something else but not
only Venice the entire Coastline in
Italy and in the Mediterranean
its Engineers have no time to lose
even last winter mosa was already unable
to keep water out of the city
last high tide in Venice was extremely
high it caught everyone by surprise
because of corruption and planning
arrows the Marine bulwark is still under
construction
even after 20 years as a political
scandal
um
and that in a threatening situation in
which the people of Venice will have to
face the consequences
basically they must expect high water
and flooding two or three times a year
for years to come and uh
according to a current report by the
intergovernmental panel on climate
change if we don't reduce greenhouse gas
emissions a two meter rise in the sea
level cannot be ruled out
unless we manage to lower the CO2
content of the atmosphere extreme events
will become normal
then not only will Greenland's ice
masses continue to melt so will those in
the Antarctic where the ice Shield has
so far been regarded as more stable
the ice in the Antarctic contains enough
water to cause the sea level to rise by
58 meters the ice is pushing outwards
but is held back at anchor points
the shelf ice as it's known acts like a
dam when the temperature rises by 0.5
degrees it melts from below and
fractures on the edges the anchor points
detach and ice from the land pushes
through
around 1 billion people live in
low-lying coastal regions
will we ever be able to protect them
from such enormous masses of water
at the end of the day Coastal protection
or flood protection is always a
cost-benefit calculation if costs
continue to increase through sea level
rise at some point we will have to
decide whether it still makes sense to
protect certain regions or whether we
should abandon them
Robert Nichols plays a leading role in a
totally new field of science
[Music]
human adaptation to sea level rise
here we just have 10 centimeters of beer
in a glass let's imagine that 10
centimeters of sea level rise that can
actually cause damage costs to rise
maybe double some people even say go up
10 times what they are today if we do
nothing so it's something we can simply
not ignore
like money is a key ingredient I think
it also comes down to what Society
thinks your culture your history the
these are also things that shape your
view on what is the best approach
Great Britain where Robert Nichols comes
from has already decided that in some
regions there will be no further
investment in coastal protection
based on our analysis of the destroy
Mansion plant about 500 kilometers of
defenses are expected to be abandoned
over the coming sort of 50 to 100 years
and that really means in places people's
communities having to be relocated in
land
Bosham on the south coast of England at
low tide boats are stranded nevertheless
flooding will increase in the long run
it seems the people who live here will
have no choice but to move out
poorer societies will be hit much harder
by sea level rise
the more resources that are available to
a society the easier it will be for it
to protect itself and to finance
resettlement in an emergency
has far more coastline than we have in
Germany and the relationship between the
government and its citizens is also
totally different an announcement that
resettlement will be necessary is almost
inconceivable
unlike in Britain at present no one in
Germany would contemplate resettlement
since preservation of the coasts is
anchored in the German Constitution the
country's 3700 kilometers of Coastline
enjoy unconditional protection
it's clear that sea level rise has other
consequences more storms more storm
tides and more torrential rain
Germany has the resources and the
knowledge to protect itself
that might be adequate for the near
future but just how long will present
measures prove effective
are we not simply delaying the
inevitable
I think the adaptation in many ways is
always about buying time no adaptation
lasts forever you so you build a wall in
50 years your children will have to make
a decision do they rebuild that wall or
do they maybe give up on that wall and
allow allow the sea to flood
we still have solutions for the most
likely scenarios in this Century but the
further we look into the future the more
likely it seems that our Coastal
protection has its limits
it is something that will only have a
finite lifetime maybe if you stretch it
good for this century
and then what
as a rule the time Horizon for forecasts
and the protective measures resulting
from them relayed to the year 2100
because anything else just wouldn't be
practicable but this time limit is
irrelevant to the oceans they will
continue to rise even after that
I believe that humankind will still
manage to adapt to certain things but
there will be losers
whether or not the ice shields in
Greenland and the Antarctic collapse
depends on us
but through causing temperatures on our
planet to rise the path towards this
scenario has already been taken
[Applause]
pain lip service is no longer enough
unless they result in action being taken
climate Summits in Paris Copenhagen or
Glasgow will serve little purpose
[Music]
we are to combat sea level rise we will
have to change our lifestyle
if we don't
we Face losing entire habitats
[Music]
foreign
[Music]
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