Kevin Kelly: The next 5,000 days of the web

Summary

The speaker reflects on the rapid evolution of the internet and web in less than 5,000 days, highlighting the astonishing growth from satellite images to a global machine. He envisions a future where devices become portals to this 'One Machine,' predicting increased interconnectivity, intelligence, and personalization. The Web will evolve beyond pages to link data, demanding openness in data sharing. The speaker emphasizes the importance of viewing this development holistically, as it becomes an integral part of our lives, suggesting a codependent relationship with a system that will know us well and anticipate our needs.

Takeaways

• 🌐 The Internet and the Web are relatively young, being less than 5,000 days old, yet have already transformed our lives dramatically.
• 📈 In a short span of 10 years, the Web has evolved from an unimaginable concept to an indispensable part of our daily lives, challenging previous economic models.
• 🤖 The idea of a single, global machine is emerging, where all devices act as portals into a unified system, indicating a shift towards a more interconnected world.
• 🔗 The Web is restructuring into a 'semantic Web' where data is linked directly, enabling a more intelligent and interactive experience.
• 🧠 The Web's complexity and size are becoming comparable to the human brain, suggesting a future where its processing power could exceed that of humanity.
• 🔑 Transparency and personalization will be key in the new era of the Web, with the trade-off being the sharing of personal data for customized experiences.
• 🌐 The concept of an 'Internet of things' is introduced, where every physical object is connected and part of the global machine, blurring the line between the digital and physical worlds.
• 📚 The value in the new media landscape is shifting towards authenticity, personalization, and immediacy, challenging traditional notions of media value.
• 🤝 The Web is becoming an extension of our senses, with human input becoming integral to its functioning, suggesting a co-evolution of humans and technology.
• ⏱️ The pace of innovation and integration of the Web into all aspects of life is accelerating,预示着未来社会结构和日常生活方式的深刻变革。

Q & A

How old is the Internet and the Web as described in the script?

The script states that the Internet and the Web as we know it is less than 5,000 days old.

What is the significance of the number 5,000 days in the context of the script?

The number 5,000 days is used to mark the rapid evolution and growth of the Internet and the Web, highlighting the incredible advancements and changes that have occurred in such a relatively short period of time.

What does the speaker find 'amazing' about the current state of the Internet?

The speaker finds it amazing that despite the incredible amount of content and services available on the Internet, we are not amazed by it, and that all of this has come into existence within just 5,000 days.

What was the initial economic model prediction for the Internet 10 years prior to the script?

Ten years prior to the script, it was believed that the economic model for the Internet was impossible, as it was thought that the abundance of free content and services could not be sustained.

What is the concept of 'one machine' mentioned in the script?

The 'one machine' concept refers to the idea that all the computers, handhelds, cell phones, laptops, and servers are interconnected, effectively forming a single, global machine.

Why is the 'one machine' considered the most reliable machine ever made?

The 'one machine' is considered the most reliable because it has not crashed and runs uninterrupted, which is unprecedented for a machine running for 5,000 days.

What are some of the dimensions or specifications of this 'one machine'?

The script lists specifications such as 170 quadrillion transistors, 55 trillion links, two million emails per second, 246 exabyte storage, and seven terabytes per second of total traffic.

How does the speaker compare the 'one machine' to the human brain?

The speaker compares the 'one machine' to the human brain in terms of complexity and size, noting that the machine's number of synapses and neurons are on par with those in the human brain.

What are the three consequences the speaker predicts for the next 5,000 days?

The three consequences predicted are: 1) The machine will be given a body, 2) The architecture of the machine will be restructured, and 3) Humans will become completely codependent on the machine.

What does the speaker mean by 'embodied' in the context of the machine?

By 'embodied,' the speaker means that the machine will have a physical presence or representation in the world, with devices like smartphones and IoT devices acting as extensions of this global machine.

What is the concept of 'semantic Web' or 'Web 3.0' mentioned in the script?

The 'semantic Web' or 'Web 3.0' refers to the next stage of the Internet's evolution where data is linked directly, enabling the Web to understand and interpret the meaning behind the information, rather than just linking pages.

Outlines

00:00

🌐 The Emergence of the Global Machine

The speaker reflects on the rapid evolution of the Internet and the Web in less than 5,000 days, highlighting the astonishing pace at which technology has integrated into daily life. They discuss the initial skepticism about the economic feasibility of such advancements, only to be proven wrong by the reality of free and abundant online resources. The speaker also touches on the shift from the predicted TV-like model to the collaborative and participatory nature of the Web, exemplified by Wikipedia. The concept of a single, global, reliable machine formed by interconnected devices is introduced, emphasizing its unprecedented scale and reliability.

05:00

🧠 The Web as a Cognitive Entity

In this section, the speaker compares the scale and complexity of the Web to that of the human brain. They predict that the Web's processing power will surpass that of humanity by 2040, drawing parallels with the theories of Ray Kurzweil. The speaker outlines three major consequences of this development: the embodiment of the machine through interconnected devices, the restructuring of the Web's architecture towards a more centralized and cloud-based model, and the increasing codependence between humans and this global machine. They also discuss the implications of an 'Internet of things' where every physical object is connected to the Web, leading to a convergence of the digital and the physical worlds.

10:02

🔗 The Evolution of Connectivity: From Computers to Data

The speaker delves into the historical stages of the Internet's development, from linking computers to linking pages, and now to linking data. They introduce the concept of the 'semantic Web' or 'Web 3.0', where data is shared and linked at a granular level, allowing for a more intelligent and personalized Web experience. The importance of openness in data sharing is emphasized, as is the idea that every piece of data, every item, and every place will have a unique, machine-readable identity. The speaker also discusses the technical aspects that enable this new stage of the Web, including the need for transparency and the potential for a more interactive and aware digital environment.

15:05

🤝 Codependence with the Global Brain

In the final paragraph, the speaker discusses the idea of codependence on the global machine, suggesting that as the Web becomes more personalized and intelligent, it will require a level of transparency from users. They draw an analogy between our dependency on the Web and the transformative impact of the alphabet on culture. The speaker envisions a future where the Web is not just a tool but an integral part of our existence, with a unity that is emerging as 'the One'. They conclude by encouraging the audience to think of the Web as a single, global organism and to embrace the changes it brings, including the principles of sharing, openness, and machine-readability.

Keywords

💡Web

The Web, as mentioned in the script, refers to the World Wide Web, a system of interlinked hypertext documents that are accessed via the Internet. It is a foundational platform that has revolutionized information sharing and communication. The script emphasizes the rapid evolution of the Web in less than 5,000 days, highlighting innovations like satellite images and the integration of various digital devices into our daily lives.

💡Economic Model

An economic model in the context of the script refers to the theoretical or conceptual framework that explains how an economic system works. The speaker reflects on how the current state of the Web, with its abundance of free content and services, would have been deemed impossible under traditional economic models just a decade ago, challenging the audience to rethink what's economically viable in the digital age.

💡Wikipedia

Wikipedia is cited as an example of something that was 'impossible in theory, but possible in practice.' It is a collaboratively edited, multilingual, free internet encyclopedia that anyone can contribute to. The script uses Wikipedia to illustrate the power of collective intelligence and the democratization of knowledge in the digital era.

💡Global Machine

The term 'global machine' is used to describe the collective network of computers, servers, handhelds, and other devices that are interconnected via the Internet. The script suggests that we are constructing a single, unified machine, emphasizing the interconnectedness and interdependence of technology in contemporary society.

💡Cloud

The 'cloud' in the script refers to cloud computing, a model for enabling network access to a scalable and flexible pool of computing resources. It is depicted as the next stage of the Web's evolution, where data and applications are not stored locally but accessed over the network, often metaphorically referred to as 'the cloud.'

💡Internet of Things (IoT)

The Internet of Things (IoT) is a concept where everyday objects are connected to the Internet, enabling them to send and receive data. The script envisions a future where everything from shoes to cars has a digital component, contributing to the 'global machine' and making our physical environment an extension of the Web.

💡Semantic Web

The Semantic Web is an extension of the current Web in which information is given well-defined meaning, better enabling computers and people to work in cooperation. The script discusses the Semantic Web as a stage where data on the Web becomes machine-readable and interconnected, allowing for more intelligent and context-aware interactions with the digital world.

💡Transparency

Transparency in the script is discussed in the context of personal data and the trade-off for personalized services. As we become more dependent on the 'global machine' for personalized experiences, the need for individuals to be open about their data increases, blurring the lines between privacy and customization.

💡Ubiquitous Computing

Ubiquitous computing, also known as pervasive computing, is the concept of embedding computers and sensors in everyday objects to create an environment saturated with digital interfaces and information. The script suggests that we are moving towards a world where computing is so deeply integrated into our surroundings that it becomes invisible and omnipresent.

💡Codependence

Codependence in the script refers to the deep interrelationship between humans and the 'global machine.' As technology becomes more integrated into every aspect of life, our reliance on it grows, and it, in turn, becomes more responsive and tailored to our needs, creating a symbiotic relationship.

Highlights

The Internet and the Web are less than 5,000 days old, yet have brought about unprecedented changes.

Satellite images and a wealth of information are now accessible on our laptops and desktops.

The rapid emergence of these technologies has been met with a sense of awe yet lack of amazement.

Ten years ago, the current state of technology was deemed impossible due to lack of a viable economic model.

The idea that all these technological advancements would come for free was considered a utopian dream.

Wikipedia is an example of something that was theoretically impossible but practically achievable.

We must become adept at believing in the impossible as our era is filled with it.

The speaker speculates on the developments that will occur in the next 5,000 days.

All computers, handhelds, cell phones, laptops, and servers are forming one global machine.

This global machine is the most reliable we have ever made, running uninterrupted for 5,000 days.

The dimensions of this machine are vast, with billions of clicks and trillions of links daily.

The machine consumes 5% of the global electricity, indicating its massive scale.

The machine's specifications are compared to the human brain in terms of complexity and processing power.

In 30 years, the machine's processing power is expected to exceed that of humanity.

The machine is becoming embodied as we integrate it into our devices and environment.

The architecture of the machine will be restructured, moving towards a semantic Web.

We will become completely codependent on this machine, as it knows us and anticipates our needs.

The machine will be more ubiquitous, with every device serving as a portal into it.

The concept of 'the One' is introduced, suggesting a unity between the machine and humanity.

The speaker concludes by emphasizing the need to view this era's developments as a new stage, not just an improvement of the Web.

Transcripts

The Internet, the Web as we know it,

the kind of Web -- the things we're all talking about --

is already less than 5,000 days old.

So all of the things that we've seen come about,

starting, say, with satellite images of the whole Earth,

which we couldn't even imagine happening before,

all these things rolling into our lives,

just this abundance of things that are right before us,

sitting in front of our laptop, or our desktop.

This kind of cornucopia of stuff

just coming and never ending is amazing, and we're not amazed.

It's really amazing that all this stuff is here.

(Laughter)

It's in 5,000 days, all this stuff has come.

And I know that 10 years ago,

if I had told you that this was all coming,

you would have said that that's impossible.

There's simply no economic model that that would be possible.

And if I told you it was all coming for free,

you would say, this is simply -- you're dreaming.

You're a Californian utopian. You're a wild-eyed optimist.

And yet it's here.

The other thing that we know about it was that 10 years ago,

as I looked at what even Wired was talking about,

we thought it was going to be TV, but better.

That was the model. That was what everybody was suggesting

was going to be coming.

And it turns out that that's not what it was.

First of all, it was impossible, and it's not what it was.

And so one of the things that I think we're learning --

if you think about, like, Wikipedia,

it's something that was simply impossible.

It's impossible in theory, but possible in practice.

And if you take all these things that are impossible,

I think one of the things that we're learning from this era,

from this last decade, is that we have to get good at believing in the impossible,

because we're unprepared for it.

So, I'm curious about what's going to happen in the next 5,000 days.

But if that's happened in the last 5,000 days,

what's going to happen in the next 5,000 days?

So, I have a kind of a simple story,

and it suggests that what we want to think about is this thing that we're making,

this thing that has happened in 5,000 days --

that's all these computers, all these handhelds,

all these cell phones, all these laptops, all these servers --

basically what we're getting out of all these connections

is we're getting one machine.

If there is only one machine, and our little handhelds and devices

are actually just little windows into those machines,

but that we're basically constructing a single, global machine.

And so I began to think about that.

And it turned out that this machine happens to be

the most reliable machine that we've ever made.

It has not crashed; it's running uninterrupted.

And there's almost no other machine that we've ever made

that runs the number of hours, the number of days.

5,000 days without interruption -- that's just unbelievable.

And of course, the Internet is longer than just 5,000 days;

the Web is only 5,000 days.

So, I was trying to basically make measurements.

What are the dimensions of this machine?

And I started off by calculating how many billions of clicks there are

all around the globe on all the computers.

And there is a 100 billion clicks per day.

And there's 55 trillion links between all the Web pages of the world.

And so I began thinking more about other kinds of dimensions,

and I made a quick list. Was it Chris Jordan, the photographer,

talking about numbers being so large that they're meaningless?

Well, here's a list of them. They're hard to tell,

but there's one billion PC chips on the Internet,

if you count all the chips in all the computers on the Internet.

There's two million emails per second.

So it's a very big number.

It's just a huge machine,

and it uses five percent of the global electricity on the planet.

So here's the specifications,

just as if you were to make up a spec sheet for it:

170 quadrillion transistors, 55 trillion links,

emails running at two megahertz itself,

31 kilohertz text messaging,

246 exabyte storage. That's a big disk.

That's a lot of storage, memory. Nine exabyte RAM.

And the total traffic on this

is running at seven terabytes per second.

Brewster was saying the Library of Congress is about twenty terabytes.

So every second, half of the Library of Congress

is swooshing around in this machine. It's a big machine.

So I did something else. I figured out 100 billion clicks per day,

55 trillion links is almost the same

as the number of synapses in your brain.

A quadrillion transistors is almost the same

as the number of neurons in your brain.

So to a first approximation, we have these things --

twenty petahertz synapse firings.

Of course, the memory is really huge.

But to a first approximation, the size of this machine is the size --

and its complexity, kind of -- to your brain.

Because in fact, that's how your brain works -- in kind of the same way that the Web works.

However, your brain isn't doubling every two years.

So if we say this machine right now that we've made

is about one HB, one human brain,

if we look at the rate that this is increasing,

30 years from now, there'll be six billion HBs.

So by the year 2040, the total processing of this machine

will exceed a total processing power of humanity,

in raw bits and stuff. And this is, I think, where

Ray Kurzweil and others get this little chart saying that we're going to cross.

So, what about that? Well, here's a couple of things.

I have three kind of general things

I would like to say, three consequences of this.

First, that basically what this machine is doing is embodying.

We're giving it a body. And that's what we're going to do

in the next 5,000 days -- we're going to give this machine a body.

And the second thing is, we're going to restructure its architecture.

And thirdly, we're going to become completely codependent upon it.

So let me go through those three things.

First of all, we have all these things in our hands.

We think they're all separate devices,

but in fact, every screen in the world

is looking into the one machine.

These are all basically portals into that one machine.

The second thing is that -- some people call this the cloud,

and you're kind of touching the cloud with this.

And so in some ways, all you really need is a cloudbook.

And the cloudbook doesn't have any storage.

It's wireless. It's always connected.

There's many things about it. It becomes very simple,

and basically what you're doing is you're just touching the machine,

you're touching the cloud and you're going to compute that way.

So the machine is computing.

And in some ways, it's sort of back

to the kind of old idea of centralized computing.

But everything, all the cameras, and the microphones,

and the sensors in cars

and everything is connected to this machine.

And everything will go through the Web.

And we're seeing that already with, say, phones.

Right now, phones don't go through the Web,

but they are beginning to, and they will.

And if you imagine what, say, just as an example, what Google Labs has

in terms of experiments with Google Docs, Google Spreadsheets, blah, blah, blah --

all these things are going to become Web based.

They're going through the machine.

And I am suggesting that every bit will be owned by the Web.

Right now, it's not. If you do spreadsheets and things at work,

a Word document, they aren't on the Web,

but they are going to be. They're going to be part of this machine.

They're going to speak the Web language.

They're going to talk to the machine.

The Web, in some sense, is kind of like a black hole

that's sucking up everything into it.

And so every thing will be part of the Web.

So every item, every artifact that we make, will have embedded in it

some little sliver of Web-ness and connection,

and it will be part of this machine,

so that our environment -- kind of in that ubiquitous computing sense --

our environment becomes the Web. Everything is connected.

Now, with RFIDs and other things -- whatever technology it is,

it doesn't really matter. The point is that everything

will have embedded in it some sensor connecting it to the machine,

and so we have, basically, an Internet of things.

So you begin to think of a shoe as a chip with heels,

and a car as a chip with wheels,

because basically most of the cost of manufacturing cars

is the embedded intelligence and electronics in it, and not the materials.

A lot of people think about the new economy

as something that was going to be a disembodied,

alternative, virtual existence,

and that we would have the old economy of atoms.

But in fact, what the new economy really is

is the marriage of those two, where we embed the information,

and the digital nature of things into the material world.

That's what we're looking forward to. That is where we're going --

this union, this convergence of the atomic and the digital.

And so one of the consequences of that, I believe,

is that where we have this sort of spectrum of media right now --

TV, film, video -- that basically becomes one media platform.

And while there's many differences in some senses,

they will share more and more in common with each other.

So that the laws of media, such as the fact that copies have no value,

the value's in the uncopiable things,

the immediacy, the authentication, the personalization.

The media wants to be liquid.

The reason why things are free is so that you can manipulate them,

not so that they are "free" as in "beer," but "free" as in "freedom."

And the network effects rule,

meaning that the more you have, the more you get.

The first fax machine -- the person who bought the first fax machine

was an idiot, because there was nobody to fax to.

But here she became an evangelist, recruiting others

to get the fax machines because it made their purchase more valuable.

Those are the effects that we're going to see.

Attention is the currency.

So those laws are going to kind of spread throughout all media.

And the other thing about this embodiment

is that there's kind of what I call the McLuhan reversal.

McLuhan was saying, "Machines are the extensions of the human senses."

And I'm saying, "Humans are now going to be

the extended senses of the machine," in a certain sense.

So we have a trillion eyes, and ears, and touches,

through all our digital photographs and cameras.

And we see that in things like Flickr,

or Photosynth, this program from Microsoft

that will allow you to assemble a view of a touristy place

from the thousands of tourist snapshots of it.

In a certain sense, the machine is seeing through the pixels of individual cameras.

Now, the second thing that I want to talk about was this idea of restructuring,

that what the Web is doing is restructuring.

And I have to warn you, that what we'll talk about is --

I'm going to give my explanation of a term you're hearing, which is a "semantic Web."

So first of all, the first stage that we've seen

of the Internet was that it was going to link computers.

And that's what we called the Net; that was the Internet of nets.

And we saw that, where you have all the computers of the world.

And if you remember, it was a kind of green screen with cursors,

and there was really not much to do, and if you wanted to connect it,

you connected it from one computer to another computer.

And what you had to do was -- if you wanted to participate in this,

you had to share packets of information.

So you were forwarding on. You didn't have control.

It wasn't like a telephone system where you had control of a line:

you had to share packets.

The second stage that we're in now is the idea of linking pages.

So in the old one, if I wanted to go on to an airline Web page,

I went from my computer, to an FTP site, to another airline computer.

Now we have pages -- the unit has been resolved into pages,

so one page links to another page.

And if I want to go in to book a flight,

I go into the airline's flight page, the website of the airline,

and I'm linking to that page.

And what we're sharing were links, so you had to be kind of open with links.

You couldn't deny -- if someone wanted to link to you,

you couldn't stop them. You had to participate in this idea

of opening up your pages to be linked by anybody.

So that's what we were doing.

We're now entering to the third stage, which is what I'm talking about,

and that is where we link the data.

So, I don't know what the name of this thing is.

I'm calling it the one machine. But we're linking data.

So we're going from machine to machine,

from page to page, and now data to data.

So the difference is, is that rather than linking from page to page,

we're actually going to link from one idea on a page

to another idea, rather than to the other page.

So every idea is basically being supported --

or every item, or every noun -- is being supported by the entire Web.

It's being resolved at the level of items, or ideas, or words, if you want.

So besides physically coming out again into this idea

that it's not just virtual, it's actually going out to things.

So something will resolve down to the information

about a particular person, so every person will have a unique ID.

Every person, every item will have a something

that will be very specific, and will link

to a specific representation of that idea or item.

So now, in this new one, when I link to it,

I would link to my particular flight, my particular seat.

And so, giving an example of this thing,

I live in Pacifica, rather than -- right now Pacifica

is just sort of a name on the Web somewhere.

The Web doesn't know that that is actually a town,

and that it's a specific town that I live in,

but that's what we're going to be talking about.

It's going to link directly to --

it will know, the Web will be able to read itself

and know that that actually is a place,

and that whenever it sees that word, "Pacifica,"

it knows that it actually has a place,

latitude, longitude, a certain population.

So here are some of the technical terms, all three-letter things,

that you'll see a lot more of.

All these things are about enabling this idea of linking to the data.

So I'll give you one kind of an example.

There's like a billion social sites on the Web.

Each time you go into there, you have to tell it again who you are

and all your friends are.

Why should you be doing that? You should just do that once,

and it should know who all your friends are.

So that's what you want, is all your friends are identified,

and you should just carry these relationships around.

All this data about you should just be conveyed,

and you should do it once and that's all that should happen.

And you should have all the networks

of all the relationships between those pieces of data.

That's what we're moving into -- where it sort of knows these things down to that level.

A semantic Web, Web 3.0, giant global graph --

we're kind of trying out what we want to call this thing.

But what's it's doing is sharing data.

So you have to be open to having your data shared, which is a much bigger step

than just sharing your Web page, or your computer.

And all these things that are going to be on this

are not just pages, they are things.

Everything we've described, every artifact or place,

will be a specific representation,

will have a specific character that can be linked to directly.

So we have this database of things.

And so there's actually a fourth thing that we have not get to,

that we won't see in the next 10 years, or 5,000 days,

but I think that's where we're going to. And as the Internet of things --

where I'm linking directly to the particular things of my seat on the plane --

that that physical thing becomes part of the Web.

And so we are in the middle of this thing

that's completely linked, down to every object

in the little sliver of a connection that it has.

So, the last thing I want to talk about is this idea

that we're going to be codependent.

It's always going to be there, and the closer it is, the better.

If you allow Google to, it will tell you your search history.

And I found out by looking at it

that I search most at 11 o'clock in the morning.

So I am open, and being transparent to that.

And I think total personalization in this new world will require total transparency.

That is going to be the price.

If you want to have total personalization,

you have to be totally transparent.

Google. I can't remember my phone number, I'll just ask Google.

We're so dependent on this that I have now gotten to the point

where I don't even try to remember things --

I'll just Google it. It's easier to do that.

And we kind of object at first, saying, "Oh, that's awful."

But if we think about the dependency that we have on this other technology,

called the alphabet, and writing,

we're totally dependent on it, and it's transformed culture.

We cannot imagine ourselves without the alphabet and writing.

And so in the same way, we're going to not imagine ourselves

without this other machine being there.

And what is happening with this is

some kind of AI, but it's not the AI in conscious AI,

as being an expert, Larry Page told me

that that's what they're trying to do,

and that's what they're trying to do.

But when six billion humans are Googling,

who's searching who? It goes both ways.

So we are the Web, that's what this thing is.

We are going to be the machine.

So the next 5,000 days, it's not going to be the Web and only better.

Just like it wasn't TV and only better.

The next 5,000 days, it's not just going to be the Web

but only better -- it's going to be something different.

And I think it's going to be smarter.

It'll have an intelligence in there, that's not, again, conscious.

But it'll anticipate what we're doing, in a good sense.

Secondly, it's become much more personalized.

It will know us, and that's good.

And again, the price of that will be transparency.

And thirdly, it's going to become more ubiquitous

in terms of filling your entire environment, and we will be in the middle of it.

And all these devices will be portals into that.

So the single idea that I wanted to leave with you

is that we have to begin to think about this as not just "the Web, only better,"

but a new kind of stage in this development.

It looks more global. If you take this whole thing,

it is a very big machine, very reliable machine,

more reliable than its parts.

But we can also think about it as kind of a large organism.

So we might respond to it more as if this was a whole system,

more as if this wasn't a large organism

that we are going to be interacting with. It's a "One."

And I don't know what else to call it, than the One.

We'll have a better word for it.

But there's a unity of some sort that's starting to emerge.

And again, I don't want to talk about consciousness,

I want to talk about it just as if it was a little bacteria,

or a volvox, which is what that organism is.

So, to do, action, take-away. So, here's what I would say:

there's only one machine, and the Web is its OS.

All screens look into the One. No bits will live outside the Web.

To share is to gain. Let the One read it.

It's going to be machine-readable.

You want to make something that the machine can read.

And the One is us. We are in the One.

I appreciate your time.

(Applause)