Watch This BEFORE September 17th! (FINAL WARNING!)

Summary

The script discusses the potential impact of September rate cuts on Bitcoin's price, noting historical market downturns. It explores Kamala Harris's updated crypto policies, influenced by Coinbase, and compares them to Trump's pro-crypto stance. The discussion highlights the importance of the upcoming election, legislative developments like the FITT bill, and macroeconomic factors beyond rate cuts. Fundstrat's head of digital assets advises considering seasonal effects but focusing on broader liquidity and regulatory contexts, suggesting a soft landing for the economy and a positive outlook for crypto, especially if Trump's crypto-friendly policies are adopted.

Takeaways

• 📉 Historically, September has been a challenging month for Bitcoin, often showing negative returns.
• 📈 Kamala Harris's campaign is engaging with Coinbase to develop crypto-friendly policies, potentially signaling a positive shift for the crypto industry if she is elected.
• 🔄 September rate cuts are typically associated with market downturns, but their impact on Bitcoin's price can vary depending on the broader economic context.
• 🤔 The script suggests that a Trump presidency might be more favorable to crypto, with specific policies aimed at supporting the industry's growth.
• 🏛️ The SEC and other federal agencies are expected to play a significant role in shaping the future of crypto regulations under a Kamala Harris administration.
• 💼 Coinbase's Chief Legal Officer has been in touch with both the Trump and Harris campaigns to discuss and influence crypto policy.
• 💰 Kamala Harris has begun accepting crypto donations, mirroring a strategy previously employed by Donald Trump.
• 📋 The Fit 21 bill, which provides market structure for crypto and investor protections, is being considered by the Senate and could be a significant development for the industry.
• 🌐 A potential Kamala Harris presidency might see different leaders in regulatory roles, which could influence the direction of crypto policy.
• 📊 Fundstrat's head of digital assets advises investors to consider macro factors over seasonal trends when making investment decisions in crypto.

Q & A

What is the significance of September rate cuts in historical market downturns?

Historically, September rate cuts have often been at the precipice of market downturns, suggesting that they might be a precursor to economic downturns.

What is Kamala Harris's stance on cryptocurrency according to the script?

Kamala Harris is updating her crypto policies and has been working closely with Coinbase to develop her administration's stance on cryptocurrency.

How does the script suggest Kamala Harris's campaign is engaging with the crypto community?

Kamala Harris's campaign is engaging with the crypto community by accepting crypto donations and showing interest in discussions about a new approach to crypto and digital assets.

What specific crypto-related policies has Donald Trump proposed?

Donald Trump has proposed firing Gary Gensler, appointing a new SEC chairman, creating a Bitcoin and crypto presidential advisory council, supporting the right to self-custody, and keeping certain politicians away from Bitcoin regulation.

What does the script suggest about the potential impact of the upcoming U.S. presidential election on crypto prices?

The script suggests that the election could be a critical factor influencing crypto prices, with the potential for a Trump victory to positively impact crypto asset prices due to clearer market structure and supportive legislation.

What is the historical performance of Bitcoin in the month of September?

Historically, September has been the worst month for Bitcoin, with an average negative return, often being considered a tough month for the cryptocurrency.

How does Fundstrat's head of digital assets view the potential impact of September rate cuts on Bitcoin?

Fundstrat's head of digital assets suggests that while September is historically a tough month for Bitcoin, the focus should be more on the Fed's actions and liquidity conditions rather than just the rate cuts.

What advice does Fundstrat give to its clients regarding Bitcoin investment in the context of potential market volatility?

Fundstrat advises its clients to keep some dry powder on hand for any downside volatility but overall sees the risks skewing to the upside, especially considering the Fed's current stance on the economy.

What legislation is mentioned in the script that could impact the crypto industry?

The script mentions the FITT (Financial Innovation Transparency and Tokenization) bill, which has passed the House and is being considered by the Senate, aiming to provide market structure for crypto and important investor and consumer protections.

What are some of the macro catalysts that could influence the crypto market according to the script?

Some macro catalysts mentioned in the script include jobs numbers, rate cuts, the stance of the Federal Reserve on inflation and employment, and the outcome of the U.S. presidential election.