9.12.24 Markets Rally On Queue, Targets & More

Summary

In the Insider Access briefing on September 12th, the speaker discusses the market's rally, particularly in the S&P 500, which aligns with their predictions. They emphasize the importance of waiting for asymmetrical opportunities in trading and highlight the successful trade ideas shared on Discord. The speaker also touches on various market indicators, including PPI and CPI, and provides insights into specific stocks like Meta and Amazon. They discuss the correlation between equities and Bitcoin, suggesting a positive reaction to former President Trump's policies. Additionally, they reiterate their view on gold as a portfolio hedge against market volatility and political uncertainty, noting its recent surge to new highs.

Takeaways

• 📈 The speaker anticipated a market rally and an inflection point, which came to pass as the S&P 500 broke out of a downward trend and approached new highs.
• 💼 Emphasized the importance of waiting for asymmetrical opportunities in trading, highlighting the need for good risk-to-reward ratios and disciplined risk management.
• 📊 Discussed the PPI data, expecting it to align with the cool year-over-year trend, indicating tame pressures in various categories.
• 📉 Mentioned the FOMC meeting and the anticipation of a 25 basis point hike, with projections for further rate cuts between now and March.
• 🚀 Highlighted the successful trade ideas shared on Discord, particularly in the tech sector, with specific mentions of QQQ and Meta (formerly Facebook) making significant moves.
• 📱 Commented on the correlation between equities and Bitcoin, noting that as equities rally, Bitcoin tends to follow suit, influenced by the availability of Bitcoin through security exchanges.
• 🌐 Touched on the potential impact of political figures on Bitcoin's performance, suggesting that former President Trump's pro-crypto stance could positively influence its price.
• 📉 Provided an update on gold, viewing it as a strong portfolio hedge against volatility and potential future recessions, with a recommendation to allocate up to 10% of a portfolio to gold.
• 📊 Reiterated the view that volatility, both inside and outside the markets, is expected to continue, supporting the case for gold as a hedge.
• 🚀 Discussed the performance of the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM), which exceeded the target of 212, aligning with the broader market trends.

Q & A

What was the main update discussed in the Insider Access briefing on September 12th?

The main update discussed was that the markets rallied as expected, with the S&P 500 breaking out of a downward period and challenging new highs.

What was the significance of the PPI data mentioned in the briefing?

The PPI data was in line with expectations, showing tame pressures, and it was noted that the year-over-year figures remained cool, which was important for market stability.

What is the importance of waiting for asymmetrical opportunities in trading as per the briefing?

Waiting for asymmetrical opportunities is crucial because it ensures a good risk-to-reward ratio, allowing traders to manage risk effectively by only entering trades when the potential for profit is high relative to the potential for loss.

How does the briefing characterize the analysts on mainstream networks?

The briefing characterizes mainstream network analysts as often inconsistent, covering multiple directions, and not necessarily providing the best insights, unlike the best analysts who are typically not on television.

What was the projection for the S&P 500 and QQQ in the briefing?

The projection for the S&P 500 was that it would break out of a downward period and challenge new highs. For QQQ, it was expected to move off a price point of 468, leading to a significant upward move.

What was the briefing's stance on Meta's stock performance?

The briefing anticipated Meta's stock to break into the 520s in the near future, which it did, reflecting a strong and accurate projection.

Why is gold considered a good hedge in the current market conditions as per the briefing?

Gold is considered a good hedge due to the potential for volatility both inside and outside the markets, including political instability and economic uncertainty, which can lead to a safe-haven demand for gold.

What is the relationship between Bitcoin's performance and the political climate mentioned in the briefing?

The briefing suggests that Bitcoin's performance may react more positively to former President Trump due to his bullish and supportive stance on crypto, whereas the market's sentiment towards crypto under VP Harris is less clear.

What was the target for the iWM as discussed in the briefing?

The target for the iWM was projected to reach 212, with a possibility of moving up to 220, and it was noted that the iWM had already touched 212-217, indicating the projection was on track.

What is the next significant event that the briefing anticipates will impact the markets?

The next significant event anticipated is the FOMC meeting, particularly the Dot Plot, which will provide insights into future interest rate decisions and potentially impact market direction.