What happens when the ‘Big One’ hits Metro Manila? | Look Through: The Big One
Summary
TLDRThe video script discusses the West Valley Fault System in the Philippines, a 100-kilometer fault line that poses a significant seismic threat to densely populated areas, including Metro Manila. It references the devastating 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquake to underscore the potential for a massive quake in the Philippines, situated on the 'Ring of Fire.' The script mentions a 2004 study predicting a 7.2 magnitude quake could cause over 33,000 deaths and damage to 168,000 buildings. It emphasizes the importance of adhering to building codes, being prepared with emergency kits, and knowing evacuation routes. The narrative also touches on the challenges of predicting earthquakes and the need for updated building standards to withstand seismic activity.
Takeaways
- 🏠 The house in Barangay Tondo, Muntinlupa City, is situated near the West Valley Fault system, which poses a significant seismic risk.
- ⛔️ The West Valley Fault system is a 100-kilometer fault line that passes through densely populated areas in the Philippines, including Metro Manila.
- 🌋 The Philippines, located in the Ring of Fire, has over 150 active faults and is prone to earthquakes and volcanic activity.
- 🔍 The country monitors these faults with 116 seismic stations to track potential seismic activity.
- 📉 The term 'the Big One' refers to a potential magnitude 7.2 earthquake that could be caused by the movement of the West Valley Fault.
- 😢 A study from 2004 estimated that a magnitude 7.2 earthquake in Metro Manila could result in over 33,500 fatalities and 100,000 injuries.
- 🏗️ The National Building Code of the Philippines, adopted in 1977, sets standards for construction to withstand earthquakes, but it is over 46 years old and needs reviewing.
- 🏘️ There are calls to relocate residents living along the fault lines, but some structures were built before the fault lines were identified.
- 🆘 In the event of an earthquake, the recommended actions are to 'duck, cover, and hold' under a table or sturdy object until the shaking stops, then evacuate to an open space.
- 🌐 Earthquakes are unpredictable, and the best defense is being prepared, informed, and following safety guidelines.
Q & A
What is the significance of the house in Barangay To-Nasan, Muntinlupa City?
-The house is significant because it is one of the first houses built in the barangay and is located near the West Valley Fault system, which poses a significant seismic risk.
What event in February 2023 highlighted the dangers of earthquakes?
-A magnitude 7.8 earthquake struck Turkey and Syria in February 2023, causing massive destruction and loss of life, which serves as a stark reminder of the potential dangers of earthquakes.
Why is the Philippines considered to be at high risk for earthquakes?
-The Philippines is located in the Ring of Fire, a geological belt known for active volcanoes and frequent earthquakes, and has over 150 active faults, including the West Valley Fault system.
What is the 'big one' in the context of the West Valley Fault system?
-The 'big one' refers to a potential magnitude 7.2 earthquake that could be generated by the movement of the West Valley Fault system, which could result in significant damage and loss of life.
What are the estimated casualties and damages if the 'big one' were to occur in Metro Manila?
-A study from 2004 estimates that a magnitude 7.2 earthquake could result in the death of 33,500 people, injury to 106,000, and the collapse of around 168,000 residential buildings.
What is the current status of the West Valley Fault system in terms of movement?
-The last significant movement of the West Valley Fault system was in 1658, and based on the recurrence interval of 400 to 600 years, the next major event could be anytime between 2058 and 2258.
How does the National Building Code of the Philippines address earthquake safety?
-The National Building Code of the Philippines provides minimum standards and requirements for structures to ensure they are safe, including guidelines for earthquake-resistant construction.
What measures are being taken to monitor seismic activities in the Philippines?
-The Philippines has 116 seismic stations spread across the country that transmit data to the PHIVOLCS office in Quezon City for monitoring and analysis of earthquake activities.
What are the recommended actions for the public during an earthquake?
-The recommended actions during an earthquake are to 'duck, cover, and hold on' under a table or sturdy furniture, and once the shaking stops, to evacuate immediately to an open space.
How can residents living near the West Valley Fault system prepare for a potential earthquake?
-Residents can prepare by familiarizing themselves with earthquake hazards in their area, knowing evacuation routes, and having an emergency supply kit ready.
Outlines
🏠 The Threat of West Valley Fault to Philippine Homes
The script discusses the perilous situation of a house in Muntinlupa City, which is perilously close to the West Valley Fault system, a significant geological fault line. The house, one of the earliest in the barangay, stands as a symbol of the potential devastation that could be unleashed by an earthquake. The script references the catastrophic 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquake to underscore the gravity of such events. It highlights the Philippines' location within the 'Ring of Fire,' an area prone to seismic and volcanic activities, and the presence of over 150 active faults, monitored by 116 seismic stations across the country. The West Valley Fault, in particular, is a 100-kilometer-long fault traversing several densely populated areas, posing a significant threat. The script introduces the concept of 'the big one,' a term used to describe a magnitude 7.2 earthquake that could result from the West Valley Fault's movement, potentially causing massive loss of life and destruction.
🔍 Earthquake Preparedness and Building Codes in the Philippines
This segment delves into the measures being taken to prepare for and mitigate the effects of a potential earthquake. It mentions the National Building Code of the Philippines, adopted in 1977, which sets standards for building construction to ensure safety during seismic events. However, experts argue for a review of this code, given its age and the need for updated guidelines to withstand stronger earthquakes. The script also discusses the role of the Association of Structural Engineers of the Philippines in crafting a national structural code, with an update expected to include earthquake-resistance guidelines. The narrative shifts to the personal experiences of residents living along the West Valley Fault, who have witnessed changes in their environment that they attribute to the fault line's activity. The segment concludes with advice on personal preparedness, emphasizing the importance of knowing evacuation routes and maintaining emergency supplies, and the 'duck, cover, and hold' protocol during an earthquake.
📡 Earthquake Monitoring and Community Awareness
The final paragraph focuses on the efforts to monitor seismic activities and raise community awareness about earthquake risks. It describes the operations of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), which uses 116 remote seismic stations to record and analyze earthquake data. The script addresses the challenges of relocating residents living along fault lines and the initiatives by local government units to mark hazard zones. It underscores the importance of community education on earthquake hazards, evacuation plans, and emergency preparedness. The segment ends with practical advice for the public during an earthquake, such as seeking shelter under sturdy furniture and moving to open spaces once the shaking stops. It also mentions the unique considerations for those living near shores, who may need to move to higher grounds due to tsunami risks. The script concludes with a call for ongoing preparedness and education as the best defense against the unpredictable nature of earthquakes.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡West Valley Fault System
💡Magnitude 7.2 Earthquake
💡Ring of Fire
💡Seismic Stations
💡Epicenter
💡National Building Code
💡Earthquake Impact Reduction Study
💡Fault Line
💡Duck, Cover, and Hold
💡Tsunami
💡Evacuation Area
Highlights
The house in barangay To-Nasan, Muntinlupa City, is located near the West Valley Fault system, posing a significant earthquake risk.
The West Valley Fault system is a 100-kilometer fault line that traverses several densely populated areas in the Philippines.
The term 'big one' refers to a potential magnitude 7.2 earthquake that could be caused by the movement of the West Valley Fault.
The possibility of a massive earthquake in the Philippines is real, given its location in the Ring of Fire and the presence of over 150 active faults.
The 2023 Turkey-Syria earthquake serves as a stark reminder of the devastating impact earthquakes can have on densely populated areas.
A 2004 study estimates that a magnitude 7.2 earthquake in Metro Manila could result in the loss of thousands of lives and significant structural damage.
The National Building Code of the Philippines, adopted in 1977, provides standards for structures to withstand earthquakes, but experts suggest it needs reviewing.
The Association of Structural Engineers of the Philippines is tasked with updating the national structural code to include guidelines for earthquake resistance.
There are 116 seismic stations across the Philippines that monitor and transmit data on earthquakes to the PHIVOLCS office in Quezon City.
Some local government units have marked hazard zones along the fault lines, but challenges remain in relocating inhabitants.
Residents near fault lines are advised to familiarize themselves with evacuation areas and prepare emergency supply kits.
The 'duck, cover, and hold' method is recommended for individuals to protect themselves during strong ground shaking.
People living near the shore are advised to move to higher grounds quickly due to the threat of tsunami following an earthquake.
Despite the unpredictability of earthquakes, being prepared and informed is currently the best defense against their impacts.
Transcripts
[Music]
from afford the home of nanaelia looks
like any other house in barangay to
nasan in Muntinlupa City
built before the 1970s it's one of the
first houses in the barangay
but through the years the house has been
bleeding from a danger that Lies Beneath
the land it stands on
it was built near the west of
valleyfault system
a fault line threatening to cause havoc
and result in tens and thousands of
deaths
[Music]
February 6 2023 a magnitude 7.8
earthquake struck turkey and Syria
houses and buildings were reduced to
Rubble
more than 50 000 lives were lost
the deadly earthquake in turkey and
Syria refresh the nagging question could
the same or even worse massive Quake
happen in the Philippines after all the
Philippines is located in the ring of
fire a long horseshoe-shaped geological
belt along the Pacific Ocean
characterized by active volcanoes and
frequent earthquakes we have around more
than 150 active faults so some of these
faults are small and some of these are
are large so are big in length we are
all monitoring these active faults
because we have 116 seismic stations
spread all over the country one of these
active vaults is the West valleyfault
system a 100 kilometer fault that
traverses Bulacan Rizal Quezon City
Marikina pasig Makati Taguig Muntinlupa
Cavite and Laguna a stretch of default
is located in Metro Manila which has
some of the most densely populated
cities in the country
[Music]
there are theories that so-called the
big one will occur if the West Valley
fault system moves and causes a
magnitude 7.2 earthquake the term big
one was originally coined for the worst
case scenario that might be generated by
the West Valley fold small 7.2 so that's
the worst case because based on the
length it's that's a maximum mounted
earthquake that it can generate I think
that I cannot say exactly the year but
there were one or two small events along
the West Valley Foot I think it's in
2018 or 2017. if you're near the
epicenter of course the ground shaking
that you would feel would be stronger a
good analogy would be a light bulb okay
so above say it's 10 watts and if you're
closer to the valve of course the
intensity of light that I use it would
be stronger as say you're like farther
from the bulb
the Japan International cooperation
agency metropolitan Manila Development
Authority and fivax conducted an
earthquake impact reduction study for
metropolitan Manila released in March
2004 the study says that a magnitude 7.2
earthquake caused by the West Valley
fault may result in the loss of
thousands of lives and the destruction
of many structures in the country's
capital region it likewise indicates
that such a powerful Templar may bring
death to 33 500 people and injury to one
hundred thousand six hundred as well as
heavy damage 2 or total collapse of
around 168
000 residential buildings a 7.2
magnitude earthquake May also damage
roads and bridges according to the same
study as eruption of fires are also seen
as highly possible the analysis was
released in 2004 or 19 years ago in
metro manila's population has grown
since thus in another study titled
greater Metro Manila area risk analysis
project released in 2013 the possible
death toll from a magnitude 7.2
earthquake in highly urbanized Metro
Manila is pegged at more than 37 000.
based on our poly seismic data the
request interval is between 400 to 600
years
and the last time it moved was in 1658
so 1658 that's uh plus 400 which is the
lower limit that's 2058. so uh again um
it could be uh in 2015 or it could be
plus 600 years plus 200 years more there
are uncertainties okay my error and plus
or minus probably several decades and so
[Music]
that's the reason why we're saying that
it may happen uh before 16 2015 or it
could be happen 2058 or it could happen
on the upper limit which is the 600
years
we are walking along by Street in
barangay tonight and according to the
fault finder website of evox this street
is along the west of valleyfault system
we were able to speak with some of the
residents here who told us that they are
also worried about the dangers of a
possible earthquake
among the residents of the street or
spouses Mellie and Abbott they have been
living here for more than 20 years and
have been witness to some changes in
their area which they attribute to the
fault line
thank you
she bought a house here in the 1970s not
knowing it was near a fault line for the
past 50 years saw her family grow in
this home
cracks have also taken over other parts
of nanaelia's home
despite the risks of staying here for
Nana Lilia her home was also a permanent
witness to the vibrant life she has
lived so far since 1970s
as we walk around barangay to nasan we
noticed some craps on the streets
with all the risks of the big one
happening is there a way to prepare for
it and minimize damage and casualties
there's no technology yet that you know
like can say exactly when an earthquake
would happen down to the minute this or
even or even you know like that month
exactly the best way of course is uh uh
we we have to follow the uh the building
code so earthquakes per se don't kill
people it's the collapse of human-built
structures such as buildings houses
walls dumps that may claim lives the
National Building Code of the
Philippines was adopted in 1977 and
provides a framework of minimum
standards and requirements to regulate
and control the location site design
quality of materials construction use
occupancy and maintenance of structures
however experts have stressed the need
to review the 46 year old National
Building Code we need to be sure that
that our structures are
strong and durable when it comes when
the big one happens as what we have
observed Turkey
[Music]
um
all of a sudden it crumbles to the
ground perhaps
personal opinion
[Music]
[Music]
is the president of the association of
Structural Engineers of the Philippines
which is tasked to craft the national
structural code of the Philippines an
update of the code is I to be released
this year it will include guidelines on
structures ability to withstand
earthquakes
National Building
[Music]
foreign
[Music]
[Music]
building
for vivoc sport they say they are in
constant monitoring of earthquakes
reported Nationwide watch Thunders are
on the clock charge in fevox office in
Quezon City there are 116 remote seismic
stations scattered across the country
once they record earthquake anywhere in
the Philippines they transmit that data
to fivo's office here in Quezon City and
the watch standards process those data
to determine the earthquake's epicenter
magnitude a time of occurrence as well
as theft there have been calls to
relocate inhabitants along the fault
line in fact some local government units
have already marked areas deemed as
Hazard zones the problem however is that
some structures were built even before
the site of default lines were
discovered before an earthquake happens
it would be best to familiarize yourself
with earthquake hazards in your area it
is important to know where the
evacuation area is and prepare an
emergency supply kit what should we do
again if there's strong ground shaking
you do the duck cover and hold you go
under the table you stay there for the
duration of the shaking and then once
the shaking stops you have to evacuate
immediately and go to an open space or
an open area if Outdoors the public is
advised to move to an open space and
avoid electric posts Bridges and
buildings people living near the shore
on the other hand need to move quickly
to Higher Grounds due to the threat of
tsunami and while earthquakes remain
unpredictable despite available
Technologies One's best weapon now is
being prepared and informed this is Neil
Mercado for inquirer.net
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