ONE MORE 30% FALL IN BITCOIN
Summary
TLDRIn this video, the host discusses the current state of Bitcoin's price and anticipates a significant pullback before a potential rise to new all-time highs. They compare Bitcoin's current market cycle with its previous one, using moving averages as a key indicator. The host also briefly touches on marijuana stocks, traditional markets, and the correlation between them and Bitcoin. They express a short-term bearish outlook on Bitcoin and Ethereum, with a focus on the 50-day moving average as a critical support level. The video concludes with the host's predictions for Bitcoin's future price movements and a reminder that the content is not financial advice.
Takeaways
- đ The speaker anticipates a final major pullback for Bitcoin before it reaches new all-time highs.
- đ The video reflects on the previous market cycle to make predictions for Bitcoin's future.
- đą Bitcoin's price at the time of the video is $26,000 after a significant pullback.
- đ The speaker uses moving averages (12-day and 50-day) as a trading strategy for Bitcoin.
- đ Bitcoin is currently trapped between the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages.
- đ The speaker is short-term bearish on Bitcoin, not excited about the current daily chart.
- đź Ethereum's weekly chart appears weaker than Bitcoin's, suggesting more downside potential.
- đ« The speaker advises against buying Ethereum due to its bearish outlook across various timeframes.
- đ The speaker expects a buying opportunity for Bitcoin in the next month, similar to past cycles.
- đ A potential 25-30% pullback from the current price is anticipated, targeting a price around $20,000.
- â ïž The speaker emphasizes that the content is not financial advice and encourages viewers to make their own decisions.
Q & A
What is the speaker's general sentiment about the current Bitcoin market cycle?
-The speaker believes that there will be one final major pullback before Bitcoin reaches new all-time highs, and they are anticipating a buying opportunity similar to previous market cycles.
How does the speaker use moving averages to analyze Bitcoin's price?
-The speaker uses the 12-day (red) and 5-day (green) moving averages to determine potential buy and sell points, suggesting that selling when the green crosses below the red and buying when it crosses above has historically been a successful strategy.
What is the speaker's short-term outlook for Bitcoin?
-The speaker is short-term bearish, noting that Bitcoin is currently trapped between moving averages and there is not a lot of certainty on the 7-Day chart.
How does Ethereum's price chart compare to Bitcoin's according to the speaker?
-The speaker observes that Ethereum's weekly chart looks much weaker than Bitcoin's, suggesting that there will be more downside for Ethereum and potentially leading to a similar trend for Bitcoin.
What is the speaker's strategy for buying Bitcoin in the current market conditions?
-The speaker has buy orders set just below $20,000 and is hoping for a pullback to around $13,000, believing that a significant drop would be the last buying opportunity before Bitcoin takes off.
How does the speaker compare the correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets like stocks?
-The speaker notes that while there is still some correlation between Bitcoin and traditional markets, it is not as strong as it used to be, citing Tesla and S&P 500 (SPY) as examples of stocks that are performing differently from Bitcoin.
What historical pattern is the speaker looking for in the Bitcoin market cycle?
-The speaker is looking for a pattern similar to previous market cycles where Bitcoin experienced a significant pullback before reaching new all-time highs, and they believe this could happen within the next 30 to 60 days.
What is the speaker's prediction for Bitcoin's price after a potential pullback?
-The speaker predicts a 25 to 30% pullback from the current price, which would put Bitcoin in the range of $20,000 to $18,000, and they believe this would be the best time to buy.
How does the speaker address the unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market?
-The speaker acknowledges that no one can accurately predict what will happen next in the market, and they emphasize that their analysis and predictions are based on patterns and should not be taken as financial advice.
What does the speaker suggest about the timing of the next Bitcoin all-time high?
-The speaker suggests that, based on historical patterns, Bitcoin typically reaches a new all-time high about 9 to 12 months after the halving event, and they anticipate this could happen by the end of the year.
Outlines
đ Bitcoin Market Analysis and Predictions
The speaker discusses the current state of Bitcoin, noting that despite recent boredom in the charts, they anticipate a final major pullback before Bitcoin reaches new all-time highs. They reflect on previous market cycles and compare them to the current one to make predictions. The speaker uses moving averages (DMAs) to analyze Bitcoin's price trends and suggests that the best buying opportunities may be coming soon. They also briefly mention other cryptocurrencies and traditional markets, highlighting the correlation between them and Bitcoin.
đ Ethereum and Traditional Markets Overview
The speaker expresses a bearish short-term outlook on Bitcoin, citing weak chart patterns. They compare Ethereum's weekly chart to Bitcoin's, noting that Ethereum's chart appears weaker, suggesting more downside potential. The speaker also briefly reviews other assets like gold, Coinbase stock, Nvidia, and XRP, and discusses the recent positive news for XRP that led to a price spike followed by a crash. They then transition to a brief analysis of traditional markets, comparing Bitcoin's performance to that of major indices like S&P 500 (SPY) and Tesla, observing a lack of strong correlation between them.
đ Historical Market Cycle Comparison
The speaker delves into a detailed comparison between the previous market cycle and the current one for Bitcoin. They use a 7-Day chart to illustrate the timeline from Bitcoin's all-time high and identify potential buying opportunities. They predict that a significant pullback is likely within the next 30 to 60 days, aiming for a 25-30% price drop as an ideal entry point. The speaker emphasizes that these are predictions and not financial advice, and they encourage viewers to make their own informed decisions.
Mindmap
Keywords
đĄBitcoin
đĄMarket Cycle
đĄMoving Averages (MA)
đĄPullback
đĄAll-Time High
đĄCorrelation
đĄEthereum
đĄBlack Swan Event
đĄPortfolio
đĄFinancial Advice
Highlights
The video discusses the price of Bitcoin and the anticipation of a major pullback before it reaches new all-time highs.
The presenter reflects on the previous market cycle to make predictions for Bitcoin's future.
The presenter uses moving averages (MA) as a trading strategy, specifically the 12-day (red) and 5-day (green) MAs.
Bitcoin's current price is mentioned as $26,700, with a significant pullback observed the previous day.
The presenter is short-term bearish on Bitcoin, noting the uncertainty on the 7-Day chart.
Ethereum's weekly chart is considered weaker than Bitcoin's, indicating potential for more downside.
The presenter is not excited about buying Ethereum due to its bearish outlook across all time frames.
The presenter has buy orders set for Bitcoin just below $20,000, anticipating a pullback.
The presenter believes that a buying opportunity for Bitcoin is coming soon, possibly within the next month.
The presenter compares the current market cycle to the previous one, noting the timing of buying opportunities.
The presenter suggests a 25-30% pullback from the current Bitcoin price, aiming for a price around $20,000.
The presenter mentions the correlation between traditional markets and Bitcoin, noting a decrease in correlation.
The presenter discusses the importance of not being obsessed with market charts and living life outside of trading.
The video emphasizes that the content is not financial advice and encourages viewers to make their own decisions.
The presenter shares their portfolio strategy, advocating for creating a portfolio that one loves.
Transcripts
welcome back everyone Mariah monetized
here and in today's video I'm going to
be getting into the price of Bitcoin I
know that it's been a while since I've
done this but to be honest with you the
charts have been rather boring which I
had anticipated I do still think that
we're going to get one final major
pullback before Bitcoin takes off to new
all-time highs you've been watching my
previous videos like I mentioned I was
anticipating this time of year somewhere
between September October to being the
buying opportunity in today's video I'm
going to be reflecting back on the
previous cycle and putting side by side
the previous Market cycle with bitcoin's
current market cycle to be able to make
some predictions on what I believe is
going to happen next don't forget that
the truth of the matter is nobody really
knows what's going to happen next we're
just all trying to make our best
predictions so I'm going to first do a
micro perspective on bitcoin and then
I'm going to zoom out compare the
previous Market cycle to to now and um
what I'm going to be doing is uh
basically taking like the weeks out from
bitcoin's alltime high of $20,000 and
I'm going to be taking how many weeks
out Bitcoin was when there was a perfect
buying opportunity and comparing it to
what we currently seeing this is always
uh tells a very interesting story so I'm
looking forward to getting into it we're
also going to be going over uh just some
marijuana stocks briefly and also
traditional markets to see there's
correlation like we've I mentioned many
times in this on on this particular
Channel correlation tends to happen
between traditional markets and Bitcoin
but is that currently still happening
happening happening it sounded like it
was the wrong gramar but you don't have
to worry my grammar is not perfect all
the time I mess up probably at least 10
to 15 times on every single video but
that is okay no one is going to die over
it so the current price of Bitcoin is
26,7 $6 Bitcoin had a pretty significant
pullback yesterday so this right here is
a 7-Day chart on bitcoin one theme
overwhelming theme on this channel is I
always talk about on the 7-Day chart
these moving
averages okay so I'm talking about the
thick ones here on the chart so there is
the 12 day which is the red one okay and
the green one is a five if you want to
add it to your particular chart okay and
so what tends to happen if you go back
to the very beginning of Bitcoin and you
basically sold anytime that the green
crossed below the red in this range and
you bought any time the green crossed
over and you basically that was your
only trading strategy you would have
done really rather well in Bitcoin one
and number two the best part is you
wouldn't have had to spend very much
time watching the charts which the whole
goal is to just go out there live your
life um and not be glued and obsessed
with the charts all day and so basically
Bitcoin looked on the 7day chart like it
was going to make that crossover but
we're seeing a little bit of a pullback
we're seeing Bitcoin basically trapped
here in between these dmas there's a 50
a 10 excuse me a 50 100 and a 200 dma
we're seeing Bitcoin kind of trapped
right there in that range so looked like
the green is going to cross over the red
but there's not a ton of certainty on
the 7-Day chart I would definitely be
waiting this out this is here the daily
chart on bitcoin
so being held up here by this dma we
have a we have we had a red two
yesterday trading below the red one
let's see if that will hold if not um
let's see if Bitcoin can hold the low
over here which is
2,998 so I wouldn't be excited buying
into this daily chart this is the 12h
hour chart here so what we're seeing if
you want to add this um to your chart
like I said a 50 100 and a 200 dma um
and you can see here the red is the 50
the yellow is a is a 100 and the green
is a 200 just want to reference those if
you guys want to add them to your chart
so you're seeing here that Bitcoin is um
being held up by that particular dma on
the 12-hour chart um I would not be um
super excited buying into Bitcoin here
um I would like to see it bounce a
little bit harder off of that but it's
just kind of laying low in that
particular range this is a 4-Hour chart
which does not look too promising as you
can see here across all these time
frames right that 50 dma Bitcoin is
being held up by it but what will happen
if it will break it we shall see um as
you could see over
here the last time Bitcoin broke below
that 50 dma o it wasn't too good so
Bitcoin was sitting at about $330,000
and then it broke down to the $25,000
range the last time that happened was up
here so pretty critical that uh Bitcoin
stays above that but I don't really
think that's going to be the case
I'm kind of short-term bearish at the
moment I I'm not really particularly
fond of how these charts are looking I
don't like this hourly as well it has
very little conviction but once again
also being held up by that 50 dma was
able to hold it up
here um but let's see if it can do it
again let's take a look here at the 30
minute chart um 30 minute chart also
looking rather weak so like I've also
mentioned in many of my previous videos
ethereum typically leads the way it's
actually a really good reference point
to be honest with you I haven't looked
at the ethereum chart in what feels like
months but I really should be um let's
go and take a look here ooh okay so in
my opinion the weekly chart on ethereum
looks much weaker than the weekly chart
on bitcoin so um I would say that this
right here is telling me there is going
to be more downside because ethereum
tends to frequently lead the way so in
this particular case um ethereum has
already broken below the 50 dma on the
7-Day chart let's take a look it's
broken below it oh my
gosh it's made a lower
low I looked at this and to be honest
with you my first thought is definitely
we will see more blood and more pain to
the downside by just particularly
looking at the ethereum chart I'm really
glad that I decided to do a deep dive on
it because like I said ethereum tends to
lead the way in most cases the ethereum
chart looks really really bad okay the
Bitcoin chart in my opinion um looks
like a little bit of uncertainty leaning
bearish I looked at this ethereum chart
and it's just bearish across the board
4H hour does not look good the one hour
does not look good the 30 minute
absolutely not there is um nothing here
that would excite me about I I would not
be touching ethereum with a 10-in pole
we have gold at 1873 we have coinbase
stock at 75 42 Nvidia
47144 um let's see what else do we have
we have um xrp at 47 cents really
interesting looking back at that
positive ethereum excuse me a positive
xrp news that took it just um really
really high but obviously we saw it come
crashing back to where it was so this
was the positive news they took xrp from
46 up to
94 and now we're back where we started
so people probably thought that was the
beginning of the bull
market nope not even
close so back over to bitcoin let's look
here at the daily chart um I still have
buy order set um just below 20,000 all
the way up to about
22,000
um I do think that Bitcoin we're going
to get a nice pullback I do believe so I
would love to see just under 20,000 I
would love to see 13 I would love like I
said I still think that people need to
be super scared out of their mind one
more time people
need people need to just be like so sick
to their stomach with how low Bitcoin
has gone one more time
26,000 I think is still pretty good of a
price and that people feel good about it
that Bitcoin will continue to rise from
here so what I'm going to do next is I'm
going to very briefly go over
traditional markets um and then I'm
going to look a blast on the past the
previous Market cycle and we're going to
go ahead and check that out so very
quickly Tesla at
263 um let's see Tesla definitely um is
looking a heck of a lot better than any
of those Bitcoin or ethereum charts
let's take a look here at the majors we
have spy at 435 this right here is a
daily chart chart we're seeing obviously
some pullback being held up by that
particular
dma let's see this is the daily chart um
basically has made a higher high but
seeing resistance here at the 50 dma
let's take a quick look so um
correlation
between I mean there's still some
correlation but not nearly as much as
there used to be when it came to um
spying Bitcoin so like this is a daily
here on spy and let's go ahead and pull
up uh the Double screen here we'll put
Bitcoin on the bottom um and let's take
a look no I wanted that to be there spy
okay
so bottom we have spy daily wait yes the
top we have Bitcoin daily the bottom we
have spy daily so not as much
correlation as you can see here on the
daily chart spy is in a uh four to 5 day
upward Trend where Bitcoin is doing the
opposite four to 5 day uh
downtrend so let's go ahead and take a
look this is what is I find to be very
are just like the most interesting is
comparing the previous Market cycle to
the current so we're going to take a
look at the 7-Day chart on bitcoin we
are going
to see where we are here how many weeks
so as you can see
currently we are 102 weeks from
bitcoin's all-time high of
$69,000 okay let's go ahead and take a
look
here at 100 did I say 102 or
103 uh I said 102 so let's go and take a
look
back so this right here was 102 weeks
out after the bit bitcoin's all-time
high of
$20,000 okay so as you can see here an
amazing buying
opportunity
um and so this right here is co so it's
kind of hard to consider that in the
equation because that is obviously an
outlier so I particularly wouldn't like
to I am anticipating the buying
opportunity on bitcoin to be coming very
very soon like in the next month um I do
think that um we need to have the buy
ORD set um because the time is very very
very soon of when I believe the last
kind of buying opportunity before this
happens okay why do I say that I say
that because I would almost like to
cross off this here in the market so um
and it was although it doesn't look like
much on the market this right here was
buying Bitcoin in the6 to $7,000 range
this right here is buying Bitcoin in
like the $3 to $4,000 range so I would
kind of like to ex that out from the
market and as you can see here there is
this zone of buying opportunity that
occurred before Bitcoin just took off
okay and
so that is what I am seeing there I
think that the next month the probably
low will come in but you'll still have
an opportunity chop wise to get in at a
decent price
um let's go ahead
and check out
what so we are currently October 12th I
think it's also interesting to take a
look here at the same time of year so
October in this range you could
see decent buying bu opportunity on
bitcoin obviously like I said this was
the best buying opportunity but will we
see a Black Swan event like that not
really likely so this is October
although the Bitcoin Peak didn't happen
in the same month so that's why I always
take a look here at how many bars out
but basically in that range here you
could even say that we are kind of here
I would say um to where
Bitcoin will have a bit of a pullback in
this range so percentage wise let's
let's compare at
percentage okay approximately let's say
like a 20 to 25% pullback where would
that put
us I could easily see a 25%
pullback from where we are now o isn't
that interesting so that would put us at
about
20,000 and you could see this point down
here is at about
18 so I would say a 25 to 30% pullback
is likely that's what I'm shooting for
that's what I'm hoping for that's what
I'm anticipating that would be my best
prediction I think it's likely to happen
in the
next 30 to 60 days but probably between
now and the end of the year because what
typically happens with Bitcoin we know
about the hav
and then Bitcoin typically um has an
alltime high like 9 to 12 months after
that so that would be my best guess but
like I said no one really knows what's
going to happen you have to make your
own decisions and take your own
responsibility for all decisions all
decisions that you make and this is
never Financial advice so I hope you
enjoyed this video that is all that I
have for you today as always go out
there and create a portfolio that you
love
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