Does real democracy stand a chance in Thailand? | Inside Story
Summary
TLDRThe video discusses Thailand's ongoing struggle with democracy, 88 years after the end of absolute monarchy. Despite democratic reforms, the military and the royal family still hold significant influence over the country's politics. Pro-democracy protests have recently reignited, challenging government actions that seem to erase symbols of democracy and history. Experts analyze the complex relationship between the military, monarchy, and conservative forces, questioning whether true democracy can emerge. The impact of COVID-19 and economic downturns add urgency to calls for change, while a new generation of activists navigates an uncertain path toward reform.
Takeaways
- đ The 1932 revolution in Thailand ended absolute monarchy, but the country still faces challenges in establishing true democracy.
- đĄïž The military continues to exert significant influence over Thai politics, with 12 coups since the end of absolute monarchy.
- đïž Pro-democracy protesters have raised concerns about attempts by the government to erase the history of the 1932 revolution.
- đ The Thai monarchy, while having limited direct powers by law, remains highly influential and intertwined with the military.
- đ ïž Efforts to preserve democratic symbols and monuments have been thwarted, with key historical markers removed or altered.
- đš Thailand is currently under an emergency decree due to COVID-19, which has further empowered the military-led government.
- đŒ The Thai economy has been severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, causing widespread unemployment and fueling discontent.
- đ§âđ The younger generation is leading the charge for democracy but faces challenges due to economic hardships and governmental restrictions.
- đșđž External powers like the United States have a complicated relationship with Thailand, influenced by historical and geopolitical factors.
- đïž Despite ongoing protests and discontent, the path to a fully democratic Thailand remains uncertain due to the entrenched power of the monarchy, military, and conservative elites.
Q & A
What significant event in Thai history occurred 88 years ago?
-88 years ago, Thailand underwent a revolution that ended the absolute monarchy and marked the beginning of democracy.
Who are the key players defining Thai politics according to the script?
-The key players defining Thai politics are the military leaders and the Royal Palace, with the King being influential despite having few direct powers.
What is the current status of Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha?
-Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha is a former army general who led the military coup in 2014 and took over as Prime Minister after five years of military rule.
How many coups have occurred in Thailand since the end of absolute monarchy?
-There have been 12 coups in Thailand since the end of absolute monarchy, with the last one occurring in 2014.
Why did pro-democracy activists gather in Bangkok despite the ban on mass gatherings?
-Pro-democracy activists gathered in Bangkok to commemorate the event.
Outlines
đïž Pro-Democracy Protests and the Struggle for Democracy in Thailand
The paragraph discusses the pro-democracy protests in Thailand on the anniversary of the Revolution that ended absolute monarchy. Despite the establishment of constitutional monarchy, the political system remains controversial with the military's significant influence. Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, a former army general, took over after a military rule, marking the 12th coup since the end of absolute monarchy. Protesters in Bangkok defied a ban on mass gatherings to commemorate the 1932 revolution, raising concerns about the government's attempts to erase history, including removing monuments and altering buildings associated with democracy.
đŁïž The Complex Dynamics of Thai Politics and the Role of the Military
This paragraph delves into the discussion of Thailand's political landscape, described as a 'Democratic dictatorship' due to the military's control and the current Prime Minister's background as a junta leader. The conversation highlights the military's infrastructure that allows it to maintain power and the challenges faced by pro-democracy activists. The impact of the COVID-19 crisis on Thailand's economy and the government's response to the pandemic are also discussed, with concerns about the potential for a more authoritarian era emerging post-pandemic.
đ International Perspectives on Thailand's Political Struggles
The paragraph explores the triangular relationship between the monarchy, the military, and conservatives in Thailand, and the challenges faced by pro-democracy activists. It discusses the historical context of Thailand's political evolution, the influence of big business, and the role of external powers like the United States and China in shaping Thailand's political trajectory. The conversation also touches on the potential for civil disorder due to economic hardships and the younger generation's tactical approach to protests.
đ Economic Challenges and the Future of Democracy in Thailand
This paragraph focuses on the economic repercussions of the COVID-19 pandemic on Thailand, expecting the worst economic growth ever by the end of the year. The discussion includes the impact on employment, particularly among the younger generation, and the potential for resentment towards the government's handling of both the health and economic crises. The conversation also considers the possibility of protests growing in size and strength if the economic situation does not improve, and the role of social media in shaping the pro-democracy movement.
đź The Path to Democracy and the Role of the New Generation in Thailand
The final paragraph of the script discusses the potential for democracy in Thailand, with a focus on the role of the new generation and their use of social media. It acknowledges the democratic space in the lower house of Parliament but also recognizes the limitations. The conversation concludes with the idea that the future of Thai society lies in the hands of the younger generation, who are learning and will eventually decide the direction of the country, with the economic crisis being a significant factor influencing their decisions.
Mindmap
Keywords
đĄPro-democracy protests
đĄAbsolute monarchy
đĄMilitary rule
đĄConstitutional monarchy
đĄDemocracy
đĄCoup d'Ă©tat
đĄPro-democracy activists
đĄEconomic recession
đĄState of emergency
đĄMonarchy
đĄConstitutional defense monument
Highlights
Pro-democracy protests in Thailand mark the anniversary of the 1932 Revolution, which ended absolute monarchy but left a controversial political system dominated by military influence.
The military has staged 12 coups since the end of absolute monarchy, with the latest in 2014, leading to current Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha's rule, raising concerns about the democratic process.
Protesters in Bangkok defied a ban on mass gatherings, laying down a replica of a missing plaque commemorating the 1932 Revolution, symbolizing resistance against government attempts to erase democratic history.
There are efforts by the government to alter or remove monuments and buildings that celebrate the 1932 Revolution, which critics see as an attempt to undermine democratic symbols and history.
The Democracy Monument in Bangkok, inspired by the Arc de Triomphe, remains a focal point for the pro-democracy movement despite growing concerns about its preservation.
The removal of significant democratic symbols, such as the People's Party plaque and the Constitutional Defense Monument, highlights ongoing tensions between pro-democracy activists and the military-led government.
Pro-democracy activists argue that the military and the monarchy's influence hinders the development of a true democracy in Thailand.
The current government's handling of COVID-19, while successful in health outcomes, has led to severe economic repercussions, exacerbating public discontent and fueling the pro-democracy movement.
The younger generation in Thailand is increasingly disillusioned with the government's inability to address economic issues, which could lead to a surge in pro-democracy activism.
The relationship between the monarchy, military, and conservative forces creates a significant challenge for pro-democracy activists seeking to establish genuine democratic governance.
Thailand's history of military coups and the complex relationship between the monarchy and military continue to shape its political landscape, complicating efforts to achieve true democracy.
The U.S. and EU's focus on geopolitical stability often leads to tacit support for the military-led government, which complicates international support for Thailand's pro-democracy movement.
There is a growing tactical sophistication among younger pro-democracy activists, who are increasingly utilizing social media and other non-traditional means to challenge the government's authority.
The economic downturn due to COVID-19, with rising unemployment and the collapse of tourism, poses a potential trigger for widespread civil unrest in Thailand.
The current Thai Parliament's lower house offers some democratic space, but the broader system remains heavily skewed in favor of the military and monarchy.
Transcripts
pro-democracy protests in Thailand on
the anniversary of the Revolution which
ended the absolute monarchy but almost
90 years later the political system
remains controversial with military
leaders calling the shots behind the
scenes in government does real democracy
really stand a chance this is inside
story
[Applause]
[Music]
hello and welcome to the program I'm
Peter Dobie it is 88 years since the
revolution in Thailand which was the end
of the absolute monarchy and the start
of democracy but it's the army and the
Royal Palace which define much of Thai
politics the King by law has few direct
powers but he is very influential
the Prime Minister is elected but many
Thais question the democratic process
Prime Minister Prayuth chan-ocha took
over last year after five years of
military rule he's the former army
general who led the last military coup
in 2014 it was the 12th coup since the
end of absolute monarchy the military's
control on society alarms pro-democracy
activists protesters in Bangkok have
defied a ban on mass gatherings because
of coronavirus they did fight briefly
with police as they were rallying all to
commemorate the events of 1932 well
pro-democracy activists have also raised
concerns about what they say a
government attempts to erase history
monuments and buildings celebrating
leaders and events of the 1932
revolution are being taken down or
altered Scott Heidler sets up a
discussion today from Bangkok early
morning 88 years after the Revolution
that brought constitutional monarchy to
Thailand protesters gathered at the
nation's monument to democracy despite
police warnings they projected
historical footage of the People's Party
from 1932 as the revolutionaries read
out their democratic manifesto ending
absolute monarchy they also laid down a
replica of a missing plaque that once
marked the spot where the revolution
began there are attempts to delete
history by getting rid of items like the
People's Party plaque or any Democratic
symbols this shows that the government
wants to devalue the Revolution in 2017
the plaque was removed from Royal Plaza
without notification it was replaced
with one bearing a pro monarchy message
the area was heavily guarded on the
anniversary journalists prevented from
filming nearby Racha damnum Avenue is a
historic district directly tied to the
1932 Revolution
with Art Deco buildings constructed
after the transition to a constitutional
monarchy the style was meant to
represent the modern era or democratic
architecture but in what's seen as a
growing effort by military Royalists
conservatives to remove monuments and
reminders of democracy the crown
property Bureau announced a renovation
project they will replace the Art Deco
facades with a neoclassical style to
appear more thai people have been using
these historical sites as a political
tool the government is becoming more
worried and views the architecture as a
threat to their ideology democracy
monument here is the crown jewel of the
Art Deco district designed after the Arc
de Triomphe in Paris to serve as the
focal point for the Grand Avenue it was
completed seven years after the
Revolution the same year the name of the
country has changed from Siam to
Thailand officials say they don't plan
on altering the monument but some
conservationists are skeptical it's not
just Raja Dunham's Avenue where
reminders of democracy are being erased
two army camps bearing the names of
revolutionaries were recently renamed
and in 2018 in the middle of the night
security forces removed the
constitutional defense monument from
this traffic circle in Bangkok
unfortunately there is a group of people
in this country and still powerful one
to forget about a pass a short distance
from where the Constitution Defense
Monument once stood there's a Buddhist
temple built to celebrate Thailand's
democracy the ashes of the revolutionary
leaders are interned on the grounds a
place of worship that is so far been
untouched by the attempts to revise the
nation's history Scot Heidler al Jazeera
Bangkok
okay there we are here we go let's bring
in our guests today here on inside story
from the Thai capital Bangkok we have
private Regina crook political analyst
and columnist at cross sword English
calmness a news website from Kyoto in
Japan we are joined by Pavan ChaCha Val
penguin he's the founder of the
pro-democracy organization foresee and
associate professor at Kyoto University
and from sriracha dominic Valda
associate editor of the financial
newspaper the Nikkei Asian reviewer
welcome to you all at private in Bangkok
if I can come to you first
your country's being called a Democratic
dictatorship where we are right now is
that a fair description I would say
that's a fair description although I
mean there could be other words that one
might deployed in describing to describe
the state of Thai politics and democracy
or the lack of democracy others might
call it hybrid hybrid democracy and
that's partly to do with the fact that
the current prime minister was the junta
leader who staged the coup back in 2014
and then he appointed the draft of the
Charter drafter which sets the rules
that enable him to return as Prime
Minister so I would say that's a fair
assessment
Pavin the military junta has been very
good it seems to me at making the right
noises but for some reason it doesn't
want to go any further than where it is
at the moment why is that well first of
all I have to agree with the previous
speaker about the current state of Thai
politics and they are not to to say to
discuss and even to criticize the
current Gossman
it seemed like they already have put the
infrastructure in place so that the
current Goffman you know or the former
who would be able to stay here you know
for quite some time
these together with the the monarchy
which is another issue which we need to
discuss because this is very critical
or the visual tile and I think they're
together has been dominating high
politics you know for by some time and
that was sort of challenge to the
monetization process and also democratic
movement island right now would you
agree with that analysis Dominic that
the military really represents the
biggest challenge or perhaps to
fine-tune it the relationship between
the military and the royal family well I
think you're gonna have to jump back a
little bit here today's the anniversary
of the 1932 coup which found absolute
monarchy in Thailand we've had probably
twenty coos since then thirteen
successful the last one was in 2014
which is was correctly pointed out
beforehand brought in General Prayuth
chan-ocha as Prime Minister he pushed
through a constitution that was drafted
by the military and has been elected or
he is now the head of a coalition
government was produced by that
Constitution and has a Senate that is
completely dominated by the military so
it's a very lopsided system it's very
complicated outsiders who come in and
look at it or you know often very
bewildered by what's going on today in
these rallies that we sought or there
was a demonstration on the could really
be called a demonstration outside
Parliament calling for reform in
Constitution and establishing today as
the national day because it was it was
once the national day and that was
changed in 1960 so you know these are
very complicated things but there is no
question about is that the military is
very very powerful in Thai politics but
something that's important to point out
at this juncture is that we are in a an
exceptional period we've just come
through but we're not being through with
going through the coded nineteen crises
and this government is now ruling under
an emergency decree which gives the
General Prayuth more power than before
so he's almost gone back to the last
government and so the real question
today in terms of politics is getting to
the end of that emergency decree and
getting back to the
of quasi democratic whatever you want to
call it that we had prize decoded 19
thing
Kovac 19 is has been absolutely
devastating globally it's done a lot of
damage to the Thai economy and you know
there are great concerns now that it may
assure in a more authoritarian era
because simply because people are being
monitored for medical reasons so as I
say it's a very complicated picture
private Rajan a Farook they're in
Bangkok as well given coronavirus and
given these extraordinary powers that
are being deployed against the people of
Thailand under the umbrella of we're
doing the right thing by you does that
mean that the military in Thailand can
carry on doing pretty much what it's
done for a generation now which is
behave like a citadel almost like a
state within a state I do not think so
as the previous speaker have mentioned
the negative impact on to the Thai
economy has been immense we're talking
about actively expecting the worst
economic negative growth ever by the end
of the year so that a lot of people who
are losing jobs we're talking about
millions and that would be very
difficult for the governments to carry
on putting a lid on it and what we're
seeing today partly has to do with this
anxiety about the prospect of the
economy as well and not just democracy
particularly among the younger
generation who will find it very
difficult to be able to secure decent
employment now the younger generation
millions of them I think they're looking
towards a prospect of underemployment at
best for the majority of them so I do
not think they will be able to succeed
they would try but I think there's a lot
of resentment as to how the government
had handled the kovat 19 on the health
front it's been near
exceptional we are one of the you know
least infected nations on earth as it is
we only have I think less than 60 deaths
so far with just three thousand plus
being infected at least officially but
the economy it's been a devastations
over the past treatment perhaps of
Bangkok are still not even being able to
recover since they're so dependent on
the tourism industry basically there's
no foreign tourists to Thailand and that
amounts to 20 percent of the Thai
national taiji okay understood
let's go back to Pavan in Kyoto there
seems to be this triangular relationship
between the monarchy the military and
conservatives with a small C can the
pro-democracy activists in Thailand
secure or guarantee for the voters
proper democracy if that relationship
stays in place well that is that is a
main struggle in fact this this is
something that Thailand has experienced
throughout you know 88 years exactly
today is a day someone would be
mentioned about the abolition of Casa
Pune in 1932 that has been a long
struggle during this past a decade you
know as we have seen the working
relationship between the monarchy and
Dimitri together they have been able to
create a network that would also in war
you know conservatives you know
especially among the the Bangkok
resident and this also as I said earlier
you know going to the decide of a kind
of politics it's come to a point also
that pro-democracy movement in Thailand
has been weakened over time these could
also be because we have a weakened
Democratic institution we have a certain
type of party in the past that might not
be you know willing to to go a bit
further I refer to you know for example
okatee of former prime minister Thaksin
Shinawatra know he could have done a lot
during his term but obviously i think
what what we have seen you know during
during those days in fact Carson wanted
to reconcile with the conservative power
rather than to push something seriously
seriously about democratization process
so what I'm saying is that we have-we
democracy institution we have a we
democratic movement and as every time
today there's number protests in Bangkok
a demonstration I would say that you
know so happen to be less than fifty
people going out there but yet at the
same time people talk so much about
wanting to change you know you talk you
take a to Twitter sometimes you know on
some day you know they basically express
their discontent against the kauffman
even against the monarchy through
Twitter up to some some come a million
time you know on Twitter but yeah you
know when it comes to tangible outcome
you hardly see anyone on the street so I
think that is the real struggle at the
end of the day I think they use kind of
like very experienced in doing some kind
of protest or properly understand you
know either type okay good collapse key
okay let me if I can distill that down
and nudge the conversation towards
Dominic in a way Dominic we seem to be
saying that this asymmetric relationship
between the monarchy and the military
needs to be got rid of but if you've got
the current junta signaling very clearly
to the United States and the EU we're
heading in the right direction and the
United States is more worried about
China's growing influence in this
country in this region people outside
the country are reacting to what they're
being told by the junta as opposed to
reacting to what's actually going on
well that's quite a question Peter so
let's go back to 1932 and look at the
contradictions the military got rid of
the monarchy so that should be
remembered now it was clamoring for
commemoration of what happened in 1932
if you go forward to the 1960s the Cole
or the monarchy was reestablished in
Thailand and it went up from their
owners to the reign of the king the
present king's father king bumi bond and
what we never had in thailand genuine
parliamentary democracy we've had little
patches of it in the mid 70s to late 80s
it was democratically elected the 90s
were a kind of golden period because a
new constitution that was was
progressive and liberal and that was
abolished by a coup in 2006 and
amazingly we had another coup in 2014
now you talked about little but people
being conservative with a little see the
the group that we're really looking at
is the relationship between monarchy the
military and big business and it's big
business that has done extremely well
since the 2014 coup and since the 1960's
is when I say that the military came
back what happened was that the military
built this this protective image that it
was there to insure that the monarchy
was always preserved and protected and
basically that's fine as long as you
have in terms of peace and stability as
long as you have a United military if
you have a military that starts getting
going in different directions then it
becomes quite dangerous and we had two
failed coos in the 80s where the
military was factionalized today I think
it's it's fairly unified the question of
the relationship that the
self-justification of the military this
constantly saying that people other than
the military are not good are not to be
trusted that political parties are
dangerous this is all very toxic stuff
okay and it's it's not taking the
country forward okay we'll get on to the
toxic aspect of it in just a moment
let's go back to private Regina Farooq
in Bangkok but when we talk about other
countries who have a relationship here
US government policy when it comes to
Thailand is the relationships between
Washington and other countries in the
region including Thailand should be
government-to-government should that
actually be inverted and should the
relationship be one where the u.s. say
in
it's an atmosphere of improving and
encouraging civil society ie putting
down the foundations for real democracy
yes but there's a deep-rooted distrust
towards America and that's partly
because of the role of the United States
during the Cold War where the u.s.
itself played a instrumental role in
fostering Thai military dictatorship in
the 1960 onward and referring to Field
Marshall to norm a certain era and
subsequent literary leaders so you know
this is and all wounds that always has
been exploited by the Thai conservative
saying that well you know the Americans
actually doesn't really care about
democracy in this region we're just not
important enough if we could be used as
a pawn say during the Cold War they will
use it and now it's quite complicated
because on the other hand you have China
which is by far a democratic country
extending its clout and influence into
Thailand
so we I think Thai pro-democracy
movement don't really feel that they
have any genuine allies perhaps the EU
are more agreeable but at the end of the
day if they can work things out with the
military junta or previewed the current
say my democratic government then that
will be the case okay III think yeah
that's that's okay that's our open gun
in Kyoto there are now as of today
demonstrations in 12 provinces in the
country so the desire for real democracy
is clearly there how combustible is the
situation right now had it not been
because of Kovach 19 I would have
thought that you know the demonstration
would have grown bigger but because of
Kovach Nike and also Thailand is still
under the state of emergency so going
out
to do protest you you already violate
the state of emergency that's why I
emphasized earlier about the low number
turn out today but I mean if this trend
continued and as we said about the the
the the inability of the Kaufman to
solve you know the problem with that can
be Kovac and also the economic recession
that had been so bad I would expect that
you know the the number of the people
who come out you know to protest against
the cost men would would grow bigger and
become stronger I mean for a long long
time the protests in Thailand usually
based on protocol discontentment but
again this time I might have to agree
with again who provide that the the the
economic reason could become a main
drive you know for younger generation
you know for a proton cracy movement use
this as you know a good reason in order
to motivate other people who have been
suffering from the bad economy croci of
the common and also again Kovach not
even let me stop you there because we're
heading towards the end of the program
now Dominic folder there in sriracha the
people of Thailand this time around have
waited what five five and a half years
for democracy how much longer
just God I want to come back to
something you said about this leadership
from the US I think it's a real red
herring nobody in Thailand is looking to
the US for political leadership and
given what's going on there and the
swing away from the US has gone cut gone
all through this century the Alliance
the greater interest greater influence
of China is based on its economic
success you know the Chinese have
performed very well you talked about
combust ability in Thailand we had
political bloodshed in 1973 76 92 2010
very serious stuff I don't think we've
got that moment because one of the
reasons is that the younger generation
are much more tactical and smart and
they are not going to let themselves go
out on the streets and become easy
targets for the military again they
become much more sophisticated and they
are feeling their way through it so this
idea that they're looking for outside
leadership we're living in a leadership
less world at the moment
and the ties I think will fumble their
way to some kind of of better day if
you're looking for something that would
crypt trigger serious problems here it's
the economic situation and I think some
of the desperation with the worst
unemployment in Thailand since the end
of the second world war that could lead
to civil disorder and it'd be much more
than nuances in the Constitution and
who's popping up who okay last point in
a minute or two private there in Bangkok
some analysts say there is some
democratic space in the lower house of
the parliamentary set up the lower house
of the Parliament is that the kernel of
hope so that you might be on track to
get a full democracy yes and no yes
there's some Democratic space and there
are some MPs and parties that could be
rely to a point to deliver and be the
voices of the electorate's but I don't
think that's sufficient but what we are
seeing is that a new generation is
coming of age politically speaking and I
think it's in their hands now we're
talking about the the people on social
media that example Wynn was complaining
about I think we will need to give them
some time they are learning it's a
learning curve and it's day who will
inherit Thai society and now within the
coming years they will have to decide
what they would want to do and it's not
just again about the lack of genuine
democracy but the terrible economic
problem is that that's already affecting
millions and will affect many mores in
the months ahead gentlemen we will have
to leave our discussion there Thank You
private Pavan and Dominic thank you I
guess they were private Rossano Farooq
Pavan cha-cha vulpine goon and Dominic
Felder and thank you too for watching
you can see the show again any time via
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peter dobby what for me Peter Davi and
everyone on the team here in Doha thanks
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for the moment
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