Navigating the Future: AI, Public Thinking, Global Challenges: #Futurist Ufuk Tarhan | Gerd Leonhard

Summary

The speaker discusses the broader implications of public thinking beyond technology and business, emphasizing the importance of sustainability, AI governance, and ethical considerations in a future shaped by geopolitical shifts and technological advancements. They highlight the potential of AI to improve efficiency but also the risks of losing control to general intelligence. The transcript touches on the challenges of inflation, demographic shifts, and the need for intergenerational collaboration to address climate change, ensuring equitable access to technology, and fostering hope for a sustainable future.

Takeaways

• 🌍 The concept of 'public thinking' focuses on discussing broad, significant societal issues like sustainability, AI governance, and ethics, rather than just future technological advancements.
• 🤖 There is a growing concern about the development of general artificial intelligence (AGI) and its potential to surpass human intelligence in many areas, raising issues of control, ethics, and job displacement.
• 🔥 The speaker warns against repeating mistakes from the past, like prioritizing profit over sustainability, as seen in industries like oil and gas, which contributed to climate change.
• 🌱 Technology has the potential to solve many global issues, such as healthcare, water, and food, but it's essential to use it wisely and ensure equitable access across all nations.
• 🇹🇷 Turkey's unique geopolitical position offers both advantages and challenges, particularly with its proximity to volatile regions and its role in future global power dynamics.
• 👵 The world is facing a demographic shift, with both aging populations and young people feeling anxious about their futures due to economic and technological uncertainties.
• 🧠 There is a call for a balanced approach to AI development, focusing on enhancing human life and productivity while being mindful of the potential risks of over-reliance on AI systems.
• 🌏 Young people globally are feeling hopeless about the future due to climate change, political instability, and automation threats. There's a need for inspiring them with a vision of a positive future.
• 🏛️ Economic inequality and lack of capital creation are contributing to social unrest and shifts towards new financial systems like cryptocurrencies and blockchain technology.
• 😟 The speaker describes the current era as an 'anxiety period,' characterized by widespread fears about climate, economics, technology, and social stability, urging a focus on solving these issues and rebuilding trust in leadership.

Q & A

What is the concept of 'public thinking' as mentioned in the transcript?

The concept of 'public thinking' refers to the collective thought process and discussions on topics that are not just about the future or technology, but encompass broader societal issues such as sustainability, artificial intelligence governance, and other public concerns that are important for society's well-being.

Why is the speaker concerned about the focus on making money with AI without considering other important factors?

The speaker is concerned because an exclusive focus on profit can lead to negative consequences, as exemplified by the environmental impact of oil, gas, and coal industries. They argue for a balanced approach that considers ethics, safety, and governance in AI development.

What does the speaker mean by 'futurism' and how does it relate to Turkey?

Futurism, in this context, refers to the study and exploration of the future, encompassing various aspects beyond technology and business. The speaker notes that in Turkey, the term 'futuristic' is similar to 'futurism,' and there is a significant awareness and discussion about the future, which is different from some other countries like Germany.

How does the speaker view the role of intelligent assistants in practical business applications of AI?

The speaker sees intelligent assistants as key to improving efficiency, making processes faster, cleaner, and more sustainable. They believe that the practical application of AI, which involves taking over routine tasks, constitutes about 90% of its business use.

What are the potential dangers the speaker sees in the pursuit of general intelligence in AI?

The speaker is concerned about losing control over AI systems that can reason and act independently. They worry about the possibility of AI making critical decisions without human oversight, especially in sensitive fields like medicine, and the ethical and legal implications of such scenarios.

Why does the speaker believe that the current focus on the amazing potential of AI is limiting?

The speaker finds the focus on the positive aspects of AI tiring and limiting because it overlooks the need for discussing how to collaborate, build a better future, and ensure humanity remains central in the face of technological advancements.

What geopolitical changes does the speaker predict and how might they affect countries like Turkey?

The speaker predicts a shift from the dominance of America, Russia, and China to a multipolar world where Europe, India, Brazil, and possibly Turkey become significant powers. They suggest that Turkey might emerge as a regional leader, especially if it can adapt to a world less focused on resource control.

How does the speaker describe the impact of inflation on Turkey's social and economic conditions?

The speaker describes inflation as causing not only economic and financial difficulties but also significant social problems. They mention the rise of an unregistered economy, ethical issues, corruption, and the strain on social security due to uncontrolled immigration.

What are the speaker's thoughts on the necessity of technology in solving global issues?

The speaker believes that technology has the potential to solve many practical problems, such as in healthcare, water, and food. However, they emphasize the importance of using technology wisely and ensuring equal access across developed and developing countries.

How does the speaker view the role of young people in shaping the future, and what challenges do they face?

The speaker sees young people as the definers of the future but acknowledges that they face a range of anxieties, including climate change, automation, and job displacement by AI. They call for efforts to instill hope and belief in a positive future for young people.

What does the speaker suggest as the 'anxiety period' and why is it significant?

The speaker refers to the current times as the 'anxiety period' due to widespread concerns about climate, finance, social issues, and politics. This period is significant because it reflects a global sense of urgency and the need for solutions to alleviate these anxieties.

Outlines

00:00

🌐 Public Thinking and Future Challenges

The speaker introduces the concept of 'public thinking,' emphasizing the importance of discussing broader topics such as sustainability, AI governance, and the ethical implications of technological advancements beyond just business applications. They highlight the global nature of these issues, comparing perceptions of futurism in Turkey and Germany, and discuss the geopolitical shifts that have occurred in the last five years, including the rise of Europe and India as major powers. They also express concern over the environmental impact of unchecked industrial growth and the potential for Turkey to become a regional leader in a post-oil era. The paragraph concludes with a discussion on the negative societal impacts of inflation, corruption, and unregistered economies, as well as the challenges of immigration and demographic shifts.

05:01

🤖 The Impact and Control of Artificial Intelligence

This paragraph delves into the dual nature of artificial intelligence, acknowledging its potential to streamline and improve various aspects of life through intelligent systems while also expressing concern over the pursuit of general intelligence that could surpass human capabilities. The speaker questions the future role of humans in decision-making processes when AI systems become more autonomous and knowledgeable. They also address the potential language barriers and the need for AI to be accessible and understandable across different languages. The paragraph concludes with a reflection on the current state of AI, its high cost, and the infrastructural demands for its widespread use, suggesting that within five years, advancements like nuclear fusion and solar energy could make AI more scalable and feasible.

10:03

🔮 Preparing for a Future with Super Intelligence

The speaker forecasts a future where super intelligence could become a reality within the next decade, leading to significant societal and personal transformations. They discuss the mental and emotional challenges people may face as they adapt to these changes, including the potential need for a universal basic income and the redistribution of work and productivity. The paragraph also touches on the importance of focusing on individual development and mental health, as well as the need for young people to remain optimistic about the future despite the challenges posed by climate change, automation, and global instability. The speaker calls for a reimagining of the future and a more equitable distribution of technological advancements to prevent global polarization.

15:03

🌱 The Importance of Hope and Collaboration for Young People

The final paragraph focuses on the importance of instilling hope in young people and the need for intergenerational collaboration to address the myriad of challenges facing society. The speaker notes the anxiety and despair felt by young individuals due to global issues and the perceived lack of positive change. They emphasize the need to educate and involve the younger generation in shaping a better future, highlighting the demographic shifts and the challenges faced by both the young and the elderly. The speaker concludes by referring to the current era as the 'anxiety time,' where multiple societal alarms are ringing, and calls for the older generation to solve existing problems and educate the youth to ensure a more hopeful and inclusive future.

Keywords

💡Public Thinking

Public Thinking refers to the collective ideas and considerations of the general populace on various topics, not limited to the future or technology. In the video, it is presented as a broader concept that encompasses sustainability, artificial intelligence governance, and other significant societal issues. It is used to illustrate the importance of considering public opinion and societal impact beyond just technological advancements.

💡Sustainability

Sustainability is the ability to exist, continue, or maintain without depleting resources or causing harm to the environment. The script discusses sustainability in the context of the ethical use of resources, such as the historical overuse of oil, gas, and coal, which has contributed to global warming. It emphasizes the need for a future-oriented approach that prioritizes long-term ecological balance.

💡Artificial Intelligence (AI) Governance

AI Governance involves the oversight and management of artificial intelligence systems to ensure they are used responsibly and ethically. The video mentions the importance of controlling AI to prevent misuse and to ensure it is directed towards beneficial outcomes. It raises concerns about potential loss of control and the need for governance to maintain ethical standards in AI applications.

💡Futurism

Futurism is an interest in or study of the future, particularly in terms of technological and societal advancements. The script notes that the concept of 'futurism' is more recognized in some cultures, like Turkey, where the term is similar to 'futuristic.' It also touches on the idea that futurism should not be limited to technology but should include a broader vision of the future.

💡Geopolitics

Geopolitics is the study of the effects of geography and global politics on international relations. The video discusses the changing geopolitical landscape, mentioning the rise of Europe, India, Brazil, and Turkey as significant powers. It suggests that Turkey may become a major regional leader as the world shifts away from resource control to other forms of influence.

💡Inflation

Inflation refers to the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. The script describes the negative impacts of inflation, such as the erosion of ethical standards, corruption, and the challenges it poses to social security and economic stability in Turkey.

💡Unregistered Economy

The unregistered economy, also known as the informal economy, consists of economic activities that are not regulated by the laws of a country. The video mentions how high inflation and exchange rates have contributed to the growth of the unregistered economy in Turkey, leading to issues with ethics, laws, and social inequality.

💡General Intelligence

General Intelligence in AI refers to the development of machines that possess human-like intelligence, capable of performing any intellectual task a human can do. The script raises concerns about the potential risks of creating such systems, including the possibility of losing control over AI and the ethical implications of AI making critical decisions in fields like medicine.

💡Quantum Computing

Quantum Computing is a type of computation that uses quantum bits, or qubits, to perform complex calculations at speeds exponentially faster than classical computers. The video suggests that advancements in quantum computing, along with other technologies, will be necessary to meet the computational demands of AI and to make super intelligence feasible within the next decade.

💡Universal Basic Income (UBI)

Universal Basic Income is a proposed economic policy where all citizens of a country receive a regular, unconditional sum of money from the government. The script discusses UBI as a potential solution to the economic challenges posed by automation and AI, suggesting that it could provide financial security in a future where traditional employment may be disrupted.

💡Climate Anxiety

Climate Anxiety refers to the chronic fear of environmental doom, for oneself and future generations. The video mentions how young people are feeling desperate due to issues like climate change, which contributes to a broader sense of anxiety about the future. It emphasizes the need to address these concerns to restore hope and belief in a positive future.

Highlights

Introduction of the concept of 'public thinking', emphasizing the importance of broader societal topics beyond just technology or business.

Discussion on sustainability, AI governance, and the ethical implications of pursuing profit at the expense of environmental concerns.

The distinction between 'futurism' in different languages and its significance in Turkey's cultural and academic discussions.

Critique of the narrow focus on technology and the need to consider broader societal impacts when discussing the future.

The geopolitical shifts and the rise of new global powers, indicating a change from resource control to other forms of influence.

Concerns about the ethical and social consequences of unchecked inflation, corruption, and the informal economy.

The impact of demographic shifts and uncontrolled immigration on social security and national identity.

The potential of intelligent systems to improve efficiency but also the risks associated with general intelligence and loss of control.

The importance of questioning AI decisions, especially in critical fields like medicine, and the challenge of understanding 'black box' algorithms.

The potential for AI to become multilingual and culturally adaptive, raising questions about global impact and ethical standards.

The need for a realistic assessment of AI's capabilities and the infrastructure required for its widespread adoption.

Predictions about the future of energy sources, including nuclear fusion and solar energy, and their role in supporting advanced computing.

The psychological and social implications of rapid technological change and the need for individuals to adapt and reskill.

Discussion on universal basic income, abundance, and the economic models that may emerge from increased productivity.

The importance of focusing on mental health and personal development in the face of rapid change and information overload.

The challenge of engaging young people in a positive vision of the future amidst feelings of hopelessness and despair.

The need for a global collaborative approach to tackle issues like climate change, ensuring that all countries are part of the solution.

The importance of addressing the anxieties of the 'anxiety period', including climate, income, and technological anxieties, to build a better future.

The role of the elder generation in solving current problems and educating the youth to create a more equitable and sustainable world.

Transcripts

I'm building a new idea on uh what I

call the public thinking which is

outside of the future topic so it's not

just about the feature but it's about

public topics so sustainability

artificial intelligence governance

things that are not just about the

future it doesn't have to be about

technology it doesn't have to be about

the future uh it doesn't have to be

about business and economics they are

more important things than to figure out

how to use AI for your business you know

these things are important but they're

not the only thing that's important like

with artificial intelligence we have

this issue there are practical issues of

course work and jobs routines and but

then there's also security and safety

issues about control and about

governance we can't be in a situation

where we are going to do whatever makes

money that is a very foolish proposal

because we did that with oil and gas and

coal and we did whatever we wanted to do

and now we end up in a world of

three or four degrees of warming still

people are ask what is futurism and and

turkey is a little bit different the

futuristic whatever it's called in

Turkish right people are aware of the

future Concept in Turkey more than I

find for example in Germany it's the tum

forer the future researcher most

academics it's like a whole different

thing so searching for futurist is only

meaningful in countries where the

language is bringing up futurist like in

Turkish it's almost the same right

futuristic and then in Spanish it's Futo

but to me that has been a fantastic

marketing thing and and that's been

great uh at the same time I I I don't

want to be put into a drawer of g talks

about technology in the future and how

great everything is that is just a

limiting thing also because many

companies they want you to speak about

the amazing world that's coming and that

is getting tiring because it's not just

about the amazing world that's coming

and the great potential and there's also

more important things like how do we

collaborate how do we build that new

world that's coming how do we make sure

we stay human and there's a strong

influence I think in Turkey from

humanism but basically this whole

discussion is a big thing in Turkey I

think and it will come back when the

time is right to think about the future

strategy of the country but also being

part of a larger story because now we're

moving into a world where the

geopolitics have changed so much in the

last five years it's no longer about

America Russia China only there's

America Russia is I we don't know China

but now there's Europe as a big Power

becoming a big Power and India is

becoming a big Power and then very soon

Brazil and turkey may come back as a

contender for that I think that when the

oil industry declines and the oil

question

evaporates so so it's no longer about

who has the oil say 10 15 years then

turkey may come into a position of being

the major leader of the region because

it's no longer going to be about the

control of the resources it's going to

be about other things the worst part of

this inflation is about the ethics and

the corruption and the unregistered

economy and inequality in trades and in

all terms unfortunately this

unregistered economy due to in high

inflation and exchange rates created a a

terrible environment in terms of ethics

and laws and Etc we are now compared

with Colombia so this is really very

disturbing and also the uncontrolled

immigration to Turkey from problematic

parts of the world the demographic shift

is so dangerous and so disturbing we are

not such a country that we close our

borders and we don't want anybody and so

on but this is incredibly high in the

world ranking turkey is the is I think

the number one country who accepts

everybody it is so dangerous and it is

creating trouble for Social Security and

all kind of security indeed we have to

solve these problem the inflation is not

creating only economic difficulties

financial difficulties but it is also

creat creating enormous social problems

you have difficult neighbors indeed our

geopolitic political situation is a kind

of Advantage but it is a curse at the

same time and while you're looking

around us you don't see any

peaceful area that we can say that ah on

that side we are okay there is no such

border no such Direction uh all

surroundings are extremely problematic

countries and

regions let me ask a couple of questions

about artificial intelligence one of the

key challenges here is this one on the

one hand I think that having intelligent

assistant like IIA not AI those kind of

systems are the key to making a lot of

things much better faster cleaner more

sustainable that those are practical

things like smart software Smart Systems

analytics and all these practical things

I think that's actually about 90% % of

the the business application of AI and

what it does it is that it takes our

routine jobs and it transfers some of

the routine to the machines the software

and Hardware so that we can do other

things yeah for example you don't fill

out the Excel spreadsheet but you have

an AI that makes the graph and and

things like that however on the other

hand now the the official goal of many

companies like open Ai and Microsoft

their goal is to invest event at general

intelligence so this is a machine that's

not just playing chess or go this is a

machine that has humanlike Intelligence

to beat us on every kind of work not

manual work but any sort of intellectual

knowledge work because basically what's

happening is when a machine has live

information in 800 languages of 10

billion people of every piece of

information about us and every kind of

media and we're getting there you know

in the next 5 years then it can put

together a map of everything patterns of

everything and it can be your assistant

so instead of having a person you have

an AI assistant you say okay I need to

go to India figure out the travel

schedule and make a press release can do

all those things so then it becomes more

generally intelligent and a lot of the

concern I have about that is that at a

certain point we lose control of the

environment to where we do things and

there we are in charge of what it does

for example in medical field if a doctor

has an AI then will the doctor just say

yes to the AI and decide on the

treatment or can we question the AI or

do do we have knowledge that is beyond

the black box so what would happen if a

doctor has all this information and the

machine says your patient is dying in 5

minutes unless you do this and this is

already becoming an issue right and it's

not just on those things but it's also

legal issues and and so on and so the

question I have will we just have to say

yes and we can't do anything we can't

question it anymore and what happens

when that happens in all languages for

example so now right now it's mostly

English and definitely not Turkish but

this is a question of time until these

agents work really well in in every

mainstream language so what do you think

is the likely scenario because on the

first part I say that basically using

smart software it's primarily a good

thing because it increases output and it

helps us to do better but intelligent

systems that can do things on their own

and can can really start reasoning being

more like humans I think that is

extremely dangerous and probably not

such a good idea we cannot say these

things in a very certain way right now

most of the people are concentrating on

the negative possible effects of AI are

exaggerating in short term the things

that will happen that might happen but

in in long term we are not exaggerating

in a reverse we are assuming that they

may not happen at all so I think we are

in that kind of period right now we are

a little bit exaggerating thinking that

everywhere and every country every

people will be able to use that very

quickly in a very proper way although we

know know that to run these systems are

extremely uh difficult indeed in terms

of energy hardware and software

infrastructure the internet connection

and everything there is so I think we

are underestimating this kind of

requirements to use Ai and other

technological advancement in the way

that we assume I think that the the

reality is right now we can use AI it's

very expensive to use and we have to pay

but if everybody used it if two billion

people say we using it like all the time

it would collapse and so in general we

need a lot more energy A lot more

Computing a lot more chips we need

Quantum Computing super Computing you

know we need all these things but here's

the thing I think that within five years

it becomes feasible to scale and we will

have new for of energy of course like

nuclear fusion and of course solar

energy hopefully I think maybe by 2040

we will have a scenario to where super

intelligence becomes possible yes I see

within 10 years most of these problems

will be sold in the meantime till going

there people will be suffering with

reshaping themselves and re replacing

themselves and there are many mental

problems s with us because we will be

changing all our paradigms in terms of

Social and working life uh everything

will be changed dramatically So within 5

to 10 years we have to reshape ourselves

if we will continue if we have to

continue to work we really have to think

what are we going to do to earn our

lives yes there are theories about

Universal basic income come

and there there are theories about

abundance and there are theories if the

productivity will increase that much

that means the cost will decrease okay

our salaries or our incomes will

decrease but at the same time the cost

will decrease so all these are true

might be true most probably we will see

those developments because we are

experienced enough to create scenarios

because we learned that from the

computation the internet Revolution and

so on so I prefer not to think uh more

than five years or 10 years but I I

suggest people to concentrate on

themselves to balance their mental

health at first and

to re reimagine their future their own

future their own capabilities their own

skills whatever it is and they have to

concentrate on themselves and they have

to reshape their life considering that

considering all these assumptions and

thoughts so I think beyond that is

really too much for ongoing people's

mindset and living conditions because

people are really so tired so fed up

with this so many information and we

were rushing after information data and

now we are fed up with information and

data we really would like to see and

decide what to do with all these things

how to be how can we use these data and

how it may help me to improve my life or

my business Etc we are really so

confused that's too much yeah I think I

I I I think this is one of the most

important things is that we need to

figure out how we get younger people to

believe in the future again and and

because a lot of young people are

desperate they look at climate change

and politics and Automation and

immigration and artificial intelligence

taking over the the jobs and it's a very

negative view I don't know about turkey

but in Europe there's 70% of European

young people said they're not going to

have kids because the world is bad it's

probably different in Turkey but there's

lot of negative views so I would like to

do something to set the record straight

for young people also so that the future

can be good and it has great potential

it's not that we can't do anything we

are doing lots of things but that we

have to have the right wisdom and the

right positions to implement the good

future so it's a funny thing when you

look at all the possibilities of

Technology we can probably solve pretty

much every practical problem healthc

care water food but we have to use

technology in the right way and we have

to make sure that everybody has access

and we have to make sure that it's not

just the developed countries but the the

developing countries and of course

turkey is right in the middle between

those two things it's like we need to

figure out how we can make it equally

accessible and that's a question of

policy and development and wisdom to

actually make it happen otherwise we end

up in the world that's very polarized so

we have the ones that can do it and the

other ones who can't do it and for

example we can be green economies in

Europe and in America by

2030 but we don't get India and China

and Africa and the Middle East to come

along as usth lists because we still are

going to explode and and this is a big

problem because in Europe we're on the

way Germany is 37% green

energy right but if we reach a 100% that

would be very good but on the other hand

it will make no difference to the global

agenda if the other countries like

Brazil India Indonesia if they keep

building coal plant because the global

atmosphere is still going to get worse

and this is one of those examples where

I think young people need to understand

what that means this shift and why

there's hope that we can collaborate

because a lot of young people feel

hopeless there's a lot of young women

between 25 and 35 who who feel like

there's nothing positive happening

because they don't see an objective and

I think we need to change that because

young people are the ones who are going

to define the future obviously and

especially the 25 to 40 year olds the

millennial my kids at that age they have

stock now they don't know whether it's

going to be good or bad and they it's we

have to liberate them to actually make

the future this is an important topic

because especially for turkey I believe

because there's so many young people

what how do we get them onto the agenda

of the good future we cannot talk to

young people anymore when we are talking

about future world is having a great

demographic shift and there is an aging

problem there is a longevity problem and

the retired people the retirement or the

systems who are related to age is dimin

diminishing indeed there is a great

anxiety not in only in young

generation's mind and life but also in

Elder Generations mind because they have

to live long by doing something and by

earning money in countries developed

countries most of the retired population

is okay they have some kind of security

for their lifetime but in countries like

us and the these are not very few the

Elder people are in panic what are they

going to do everything is changing they

do not know technology a lot they even

don't understand but they are still

living and they are still in a position

to earn money and what are they doing

these is Elder people and young people

is naturally having many problems

because the world is not able to create

Capital anymore the capitalism is not

creating capital for young people

anymore so that's why they are objecting

and trying to change all Financial

system towards

cryptocurrencies or crypto assets and

blockchain and meta Wars and so on there

is a huge homework for Humanity so we

have to solve really big problems in in

this decade we have to find some ways

either Elder even children young people

and Elder people who are living long and

I'm sure that you heard about Stanford

opened up a new department or new

section about 100 years old people and

this demographic shift issues so there

is a kind of anxiety in the world the

climate anxiety the income anxiety the

technology anxiety I call this period of

time anxiety period and anxiety time

yeah anxiety time we that's a good one

yeah yeah because whatever we when we

talk about anything even the climate

even the finance even the social even

the politics and so on we see there are

red lights alarms on that uh topic so uh

the young people are really in Desperate

psychology all over the world I think we

are traveling around and we have uh

followers uh from every part of the

world and uh they are right they are

right to feel that because we are not

able to Sol their problems because we

other people are talking about the

climate crisis and uh the global warming

and the financial problems ethic

problems and so on but we are not solve

anything so they are losing their faith

they don't believe us they don't feel

respect towards us so I think the major

problem is about us the Elder generation

we have to solve first our problems and

we have to educate our stuff