Project Orion (GPT-5 Strawberry) Imminent, Already Shown To FEDS!
Summary
TLDRThe script discusses OpenAI's potential release of a new AI model, 'Strawberry,' aimed at improving complex reasoning and math capabilities. It highlights OpenAI's demonstration of the technology to federal officials and its use in developing 'Orion,' their next flagship model. The script also touches on the debate over open-source AI, the challenges of generating high-quality training data, and the competition in the AI industry. It speculates on how Strawberry might be integrated into products like Chat-GPT and the importance of reducing AI 'hallucinations' for enterprise adoption.
Takeaways
- đ§ OpenAI is reportedly on the verge of releasing a new AI model, possibly named 'Strawberry', which could be a significant technical breakthrough for complex task completion.
- đ 'Strawberry' is associated with slower thinking models that plan ahead and perform better in math and logic due to multi-step reasoning capabilities.
- đ€ OpenAI has demonstrated this unreleased technology to American National Security officials, possibly setting a new standard for AI transparency with policymakers.
- đ There is speculation that 'Strawberry' could be used to generate high-quality training data for 'Orion', OpenAI's next flagship large language model.
- đĄ The technology behind 'Strawberry' might be too slow for consumer use in a chat-based product, indicating a potential focus on less time-sensitive applications.
- đ OpenAI's business has seen substantial growth with LLM sales and Chat GPT subscriptions tripling, despite ongoing losses.
- đ The launch of 'Orion' is crucial for OpenAI to stay ahead of competitors like Google's DeepMind and Anthropic, who are also advancing in AI capabilities.
- đĄïž 'Strawberry' could help reduce 'hallucinations' or errors in AI models by improving the quality of training data, which is vital for enterprise adoption.
- đĄ The potential applications of 'Strawberry' in solving complex math problems could be lucrative for fields like aerospace and structural engineering.
- đ The origins of 'Strawberry' lie in research started years ago by Ilya Sutskever, OpenAI's former Chief Scientist, who has since left to start a competing AI lab.
- đ° The AI community is abuzz with speculation and excitement similar to tech industry hype around new product releases, indicating the fervor around anticipated AI advancements.
Q & A
What is the significance of the 'Strawberry' AI model mentioned in the transcript?
-Strawberry is a mysterious technical breakthrough that could enhance Open AI models' ability to complete complex tasks such as math problems, which conversational AI traditionally struggles with. It represents a slower thinking model that can plan ahead, think through problems, and perform better at math and logic reasoning.
What is the connection between Strawberry and Orion in the context of Open AI's developments?
-Strawberry is being used to generate high-quality training data for Orion, which is reportedly Open AI's next flagship large language model in development. This is important as much of the training data on the internet has already been used, and Strawberry could help overcome limitations on obtaining enough high-quality data.
Why did Open AI demonstrate Strawberry to American National Security officials?
-Open AI demonstrated Strawberry to American National Security officials to set a new standard for AI developers, especially as advanced AI increasingly becomes a national security concern. This could be part of Open AI's push to be more transparent with policymakers who could cause the company problems if they feel threatened by its technology.
What is the potential impact of Open AI's decision to demonstrate unreleased technology to government officials?
-Demonstrating unreleased technology to government officials could influence how AI is regulated and integrated into national security strategies. It might also set a precedent for other AI developers to engage with policymakers before releasing new technologies.
What is the role of 'Qar' in the context of Strawberry and Orion?
-Qar is a model that, like Strawberry, focuses on slower thinking and multi-step reasoning. It is part of the same initiative to develop AI that can handle complex tasks better, and it could be incorporated into future Open AI products to improve their reasoning capabilities.
How does the transcript suggest that Strawberry and similar models could change the AI industry?
-The transcript suggests that Strawberry and similar models could change the AI industry by setting new standards for complex reasoning and problem-solving in AI. It also implies that these models could lead to more transparent interactions between AI developers and policymakers.
What is the potential application of Strawberry in improving AI's reasoning capabilities for coding errors in GitHub?
-Strawberry's potential application in GitHub could involve using its improved reasoning capabilities to fix non-critical coding errors. Given that Strawberry takes time to think through problems, it might be well-suited for tasks that do not require immediate responses.
How does the transcript discuss the challenges of AI-generated data, also known as synthetic data?
-The transcript discusses the challenges of synthetic data by noting that it is derivative and may not create new knowledge. It raises concerns about whether training AI models with data generated by another model could lead to sustainable improvements in AI capabilities.
What is the significance of Open AI's potential move to simplify and shrink Strawberry through a process called distillation?
-The significance of simplifying and shrinking Strawberry through distillation is to make the technology suitable for use in a chat-based product before Orion is released. This suggests that the original Strawberry model might be too slow for consumer settings where immediate responses are expected.
How does the transcript address the competition in the AI industry, especially with regards to reasoning capabilities?
-The transcript addresses competition by mentioning other companies like Google's DeepMind and Anthropic, which are also developing AI models with improved reasoning capabilities. It highlights the competitive landscape and the need for Open AI to launch something incredible to stay ahead.
What is the potential business impact of Open AI's new models on fields that require complex problem-solving like math-heavy fields?
-The potential business impact could be significant, as AI that can solve tough math problems could be lucrative in fields such as Aerospace and Structural Engineering, where existing AI isn't great at handling complex mathematical tasks.
Outlines
đ Open AI's New Model 'Strawberry' and Orion
The script discusses the imminent release of Open AI's new model, 'Strawberry,' and its potential demonstration to the federal government. It highlights the connection between 'Strawberry' and 'Orion,' Open AI's next frontier model. The article by Stephanie Palazolo suggests that 'Strawberry' could aid in complex task completion, such as math problems, which are traditionally challenging for conversational AI. The script also speculates on the implications of Open AI's transparency with policymakers and the national security concerns surrounding advanced AI. It touches on the debate over open-source AI and the difficulty of keeping AI advancements secret, especially from competitors like China.
đ€ Strawberry's Role in Enhancing AI Reasoning and Training Data
This paragraph delves into the specifics of 'Strawberry,' a model that enables long-term thinking and multi-step reasoning, which are significant improvements over traditional conversational AI. The script mentions the efforts to simplify 'Strawberry' through a process called distillation, possibly for integration into a chat-based product. It also discusses the potential applications of 'Strawberry,' such as improving the accuracy of AI responses in less time-sensitive scenarios, like coding error correction on GitHub or the use in AI agents. The paragraph further explores the financial aspects of Open AI, including its revenue from LLM sales and subscriptions, and the importance of launching a successful flagship model like 'Orion' to stay competitive in the market.
đ§ Synthetic Data and Reducing AI 'Hallucinations'
The script addresses the use of 'Strawberry' for generating synthetic data to train new models like 'Orion,' overcoming the limitations of obtaining high-quality real-world data. It discusses the potential of 'Strawberry' to reduce errors or 'hallucinations' in AI models, which is crucial for enterprise adoption and critical applications. The importance of having accurate training data to minimize ambiguity and improve the AI's problem-solving abilities is highlighted. The paragraph also touches on the competitive landscape with other companies like Google's DeepMind and Anthropic, and the challenges of creating new knowledge through AI models.
đ Speculations and Anticipations for Open AI's Future Models
The final paragraph wraps up with a discussion on the speculations surrounding Open AI's models, the role of 'Strawberry' in research, and its potential impact on future models. It mentions the origins of 'Strawberry' in research conducted by Ilya Sutskever and its development by Jacob and Simon Sedom. The script also references the departure of key researchers from Open AI and the competitive AI lab landscape. It concludes with a lighter note on the excitement and speculation in the AI community, akin to the buzz around tech product releases, and hints at the upcoming in-depth coverage of the new Open AI model.
Mindmap
Keywords
đĄOpen AI
đĄStrawberry AI
đĄOrion
đĄQAR
đĄAI-generated data
đĄDistillation
đĄHallucinations
đĄLarge Language Models (LLMs)
đĄSynthetic data
đĄAgents
đĄReasoning capabilities
Highlights
Open AI is reportedly on the verge of releasing a new model named 'Strawberry', which may have been demonstrated to the federal government.
The 'Strawberry' model is associated with slower thinking models that can plan ahead and excel in math and logic.
Open AI's demonstration of unreleased technology to government officials could set a new standard for AI developers, particularly concerning national security.
The technology behind 'Strawberry' could be used to generate high-quality training data for Open AI's next flagship model, 'Orion'.
Open AI is considering simplifying 'Strawberry' through a process called 'distillation' for use in a chat-based product before 'Orion' is released.
The 'Strawberry' model might be too slow for consumer settings, indicating a potential trade-off between accuracy and response time.
Open AI's monthly revenue from LLMs and Chat GPT subscriptions has tripled to $283 million, though the company is likely still operating at a loss.
The 'Orion' model is expected to be a significant advancement over current models, leaving competitors behind.
Open AI faces competition from models like Google's DeepMind and Anthropic's latest LLM, which are also improving in reasoning capabilities.
AI's ability to solve complex math problems could be lucrative in fields like aerospace and structural engineering.
The 'Strawberry' model has its roots in research by Ilya Sutskever, Open AI's former Chief Scientist.
New York Magazine's article humorously discusses the speculation around 'Strawberry' and AI, likening it to the excitement around tech product releases.
The potential applications of 'Strawberry' include improving reasoning in chatbots and reducing errors in AI-generated responses.
Open AI is raising more capital to support the development of advanced AI products like 'Strawberry'.
The 'Strawberry' model's slower pace is likened to human thought processes, taking time to reason and iterate on results.
The transcript suggests that Open AI may soon launch AI agents that could benefit from 'Strawberry's' capabilities.
Transcripts
apparently open AI is on the verge of
releasing their brand new model and now
we have a ton of additional information
about it including the fact that open AI
may actually have shown this new
technology to the federal government so
we're going to go over all of that right
now all right so we have two main
articles from the information that were
posted over the last couple days first
open AI shows strawberry so we've talked
a lot about strawberry talked a lot
about qar I'll link those videos in the
description below and I will drop a link
to the full article in the description
below open AI shows strawberry AI to the
feds and uses it to develop Orion and
Orion is new to me and apparently it is
their next Frontier Model now here's the
thing if you were ever doubting Jimmy
apples the infamous open AI leaker look
at this tweet from all the way back at
November 24th 2023 let's conquer the
cosmos mood curious Jimmy so with that
did he actually know and then as of
today yeah been waiting since last year
for this mood patients Jimmy and he's
referring to the information article
about Orion so maybe he knew about it so
let's read a little bit about the
article so this article by Stephanie
palazolo starts with in case you were
wondering why Sam Alman cryptically
posted a picture of strawberries earlier
this month the answer almost certainly
has to do with strawberry a mysterious
technical breakthrough that could help
open AI models complete complex tasks
such as math problems that
conversational AI has traditionally
struggled with so just a quick catchup
qar strawberry it's all referencing the
same thing slower thinking models models
that can actually plan ahead think
through problems multi-step reasoning
and actually do much better at math and
logic and reasoning these models don't
just return the first token they predict
they actually go off and think about it
and actually do long-term thinking in
mid July Reuters reported on the
existence of strawberry and this morning
we published this piece with even more
details and we will go over that in a
moment here is the most interesting bit
this summer his team Sam alman's team
demonstrated the technology to American
National Security officials said a
person with direct knowledge of those
meetings which haven't been previously
reported by demonstrating an unreleased
technology to government officials open
AI could be setting a new standard for
AI developers especially as advanced AI
increasingly becomes a national security
concern the demonstration could be part
of open ai's push to be more transparent
with policy makers who could cause the
company problems if they feel threatened
by its technology and scanning down a
bit and maybe also take a shot at meta
platforms for releasing openweight AI
that China and everyone else can access
so you all know how I feel about this
open source is the way to go to think
that a single private company is going
to be able to protect secrets to protect
the weights against an adversary like
China infiltrating and getting that IP
it's just so unlikely that they will be
able to protect it forever right here
meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg says it's
inevitable that China will get it one
way or the other and I agree all it
takes is one slip up in security which
we're humans We Make Mistakes One slip
up and then China will have the weights
anyways and it's not just about the
weights you also need the compute to
power it you need a lot of other things
as well I did a full review of Mark
Zuckerberg's thoughts on open source and
it overlaps with my own quite a bit so
I'll drop that video in the description
below let's keep reading about
strawberry and why it matters to Orion
and again strawberry qar it is different
from Orion Oran is reportedly their next
Frontier Model that is going to leave
everybody else in the dust one of the
most important applications of
strawberry is to generate high quality
training data for Orion open ai's next
Flagship large language model that's in
development now why is that important
much of the training data on the
internet has already been used there's
almost none left that is public and
easily accessible now it's all behind
pay walls and authentication that's why
open AI has been doing deals with
different Publications and Reddit and
all these other companies and that's why
Twitter's data set is so important to x.
a but Sam Alman a while ago hinted that
maybe more and more training data isn't
actually necessary there's actually two
other approaches that are possible one
that they can actually do a lot more
with existing data and the second path
which it looks like they're talking
about here is actually generating in
synthetic data using one model for
another model now there's been a lot of
doubt that that is a sustainable model
because if you're creating data with one
model to be used on another model it's
basically derivative data a lot of
people think that large language models
aren't actually creating new knowledge
it's simply outputting what it already
knows so if it's only able to Output
what it already knows how could it
really train a model to be that much
better using strawberry could help Orion
reduce the number of hallucinations or
errors it produces resarch ERS tell me
that's because AI models learn from
their training data so the more correct
examples of complex reasoning they see
the better so what could be going on
here is they have a set of data and
Orion and qstar are doing long-term
thinking and multi-step planning and
basically thinking through the data to
make sure it's accurate and then
producing new data that is highly
accurate but there's also a push within
open AI to simplify and Shrink
strawberry through a process called
distillation so it can be used in a
chat-based product before Orion is
released so that tells me that the
technology behind strawberry might just
be so slow it's unusable in a consumer
setting and that would make sense and
I'll actually touch more on this in a
bit but the gist is strawberry and qar
takes time that's a feature not a bug it
actually takes a lot of time it thinks
through it just like humans would when
you ask someone something they don't
immediately spit out the first thing
that they think of or at least most
people don't instead they take time to
think through it they might take notes
especially hard questions reasoning
logic math these are things things that
we take our time with we write down
thoughts and we iterate on the result
here the information admits we're not
sure what a strawberry based product
might look like but we can make an
educated guess one obvious idea of what
strawberry could be an actual product is
incorporating strawberries improved
reasoning capabilities into Chachi BT
and that's the obvious one however
though these answers would likely be
more accurate they also might be slower
that means that strawberry might be ill
suited for applications where users
expect immediate responses like open AI
search GPT search engine but ideal for
less time sensitive use cases like
fixing non-critical coding errors in
GitHub now another good use case for
this is Agents if I have an agent
working for me 24 hours a day I really
don't need a response immediately I can
give it these superpowers powered by
qstar powered by strawberry allow it to
go do its thing and then bring me back
the best possible response you could
imagine a Noto distant future where chat
GPT users are able to toggle strawberry
on and off depending on how sensitive
they request are so that's the first
article from the information about Orion
that's the first time I've heard of it
so hopefully I'm bringing it to you for
the first time too now chubby from X who
is an amazing follow if you're not
already following him what chubby
touches on here is that strawberry is
slower because rather than just
responding immediately with whatever it
thinks is the next correct token it
actually takes its time and does what is
called system to thinking rather than
just system one thinking now let's read
more about strawberry so this is another
article from from the information open
AI raises to launch strawberry reasoning
AI to boost chatbot business so it is
reported that open AI is looking to
raise even more Capital which is insane
they've already raised so much but you
know what it costs a lot of money to
build these models at least for now its
researchers are trying to launch a new
artificial intelligence product they
believe can reason through tough
problems much better than its existing
AI here they just touch briefly on qar
we've already discussed it quite a bit
when given additional time to think the
strawberry model can also answer
customers questions about more
subjective topics such as product
marketing strategies to demonstrate
strawberry's prowess with language
related tasks open AI employees have
shown their co-workers how strawberry
can for example solve New York Times
connections a complex word puzzle so if
it were given the puzzle and just asked
to Output immediately what it thought
system one thinking then it's not able
to solve it nearly as effectively as if
it had time to iterate and use maybe
tree of thought or Chain of Thought or
any these other more advanced
capabilities where the model can
actually look ahead plan and test things
out come back and test other things out
as they see things are working or not
here the information talks about the
open AI business and its sales of llms
to corporations and of chat GPT
subscriptions have roughly tripled to
283 million in monthly Revenue compared
to a year ago that's insane though its
monthly losses are likely higher than
that as reported by the information and
I've already explained that they are
probably still still losing money but
they're not going to go bankrupt anytime
soon the company is privately valued at
86 billion but open AI prospects rest in
part on the eventual launch of a new
flagship llm it is currently developing
Cod named Orion so we already talked
about that now why is this next model so
important well open source pretty much
caught up with GPT 40 llama 370b llama
345b is a fraction of the price you can
run it locally you can fine-tune it and
it's nearly as good or as good as GPT 4
o for the majority of use cases and not
only that we have the clad models we
have grock 2 we have more grock models
coming we have perplexity for search so
the competition is heating up really
quickly and open AI really needs to
launch something incredible to jump
ahead because intelligence is being
driven down to a cost of nothing here
they talk about the same things that we
touched on in the last article but let
me just read it again open AI is also
using the bigger version of strawberry
to generate data for training Orion and
set a person with knowledge of the
situation that kind of AI generated data
is known as synthetic something we've
touched on a lot on this channel it
means that strawberry could help open AI
overcome limitations on obtaining enough
highquality data to train new models
from Real World data such as text or
images pulled from the internet and here
apparently open aai is going to be
launching agents soon so strawberry
could Aid upcoming open aai agents that
person said using strawberry to generate
higher quality training data could help
open AI reduce the number of Errors its
model generate otherwise known as
hallucinations now one of the biggest
blockers one of the biggest hurdles for
artificial intelligence in general to be
adopted within Enterprise settings and
more critical settings is the fact that
it still hallucinates there's a bunch of
things that you could do to reduce
hallucinations whether that's improving
your prompts having multiple agents talk
to each other and verify kind of like an
agentic system and pulling in
information from the internet to verify
and of course doing your own
verification but at the end of the day
if we want large language models to be
fully autonomous and to really run at
the scale that we believe it can it
really needs to reduce hallucinations to
nearly zero so the CEO of agent startup
minion Ai and former Chief Architect of
GitHub co-pilot says imagine a model
without hallucinations a model where you
ask it a logic puzzle and it's right on
the first try the reason why the model
is able to do that is because there is
less ambiguity in the training data so
it's guessing less so from Sam Alman at
an event back in may we feel like we
have enough data for this next model so
they are close and I really cannot wait
to see the next thing that they bring
out I have said this a lot it's really
hard for me to imagine that a private AI
company is going to have some completely
unique research or unique Tech that
allows them to make a 50 100%
Improvement on what's already out there
maybe 10% maybe 20% but a large leap
from what is already on the market today
is really hard for me to imagine just
because of the way that the scientific
community operates all of these papers
get published and unless open AI
research scientists are the only ones in
the world who actually thought of a new
idea and it didn't leak out anywhere
it's just very unlikely that they're
going to have some completely new
technology here they talk about why
solving math problems could be so
lucrative for open AI as a business AI
that solves tough math problems could be
a potentially lucrative application
given that existing AI isn't great at
math heavy Fields such as Aerospace and
Structural Engineering now that isn't
necessarily true Google's deepmind team
actually got I think silver at the math
olympiads so it's definitely possible
today already that AI can be extremely
good at math and right here they
reference what I just mentioned Google
deep mine said its AI would beat most
human participants in the international
mathematical Olympiad another major
rival anthropic said its latest llm
could write more complicated software
code than its prior llms could and
answer questions about charts and graphs
than to Improvement in its reasoning
capability so again competition is there
and specifically about anthropic the
cloud model is seemingly the favored
large language model for coding use
cases everybody seems to be using cursor
the IDE that is AI native in conjunction
with the claw models it continues with
to improve models reasoning some
startups have been using a cheap hack
that involves breaking down a problem
into smaller steps though the
workarounds are slow and expensive it's
kind of weird to call it a cheap hack
these are these are discovered prompt
techniques and Frameworks to wrap your
large language model to make them more
effective and I don't see that as a
cheap hack at all and yeah they tend to
be slower but what if you just power it
with Gro grq and then all of a sudden
you have all the benefits of these
additional layers of technique to get
the best response but you're also
getting hundreds of tokens per second so
it ends with what ilas saw strawberry
has its roots in research it was started
Years Ago by ilas suser then open ai's
Chief scientist he recently left to
start a competing AI lab before he left
open AI researchers Jacob and Simon
sedor built on SS's work by developing a
new math solving model qar alarming some
researchers focused on AI safety and
basically the entire super alignment
team has left since then so what did
Ilia really see and last just to add a
pinch of fun to this from New York
Magazine the AI guys are driving
themselves mad and this is in reference
to Strawberry man and qar and the
strawberry model Jimmy apples and all of
this conjecture and speculation and you
know what it's all in good fun it's the
same thing that basically every other
industry does when apple is about to
release a new phone everybody who
follows Apple starts talking about what
it could possibly be and talking about
the leaks and you know what we're so
excited about what's to come why not add
a little speculation and try to figure
out what might come so this article is
pretty funny it just talks about how I
rule the world Mo was responded to by
Sam Alman and all of his hypey tweets
which is great and here's the awesome
part they actually included one of my
videos about qar which is flattering
it's so cool they also go on to talk
about Lily Ashwood who everybody's
trying to figure out if she's AI or not
we talked about that on the live stream
last week so there's definitely a lot
going on a lot of fun and as soon as the
new open AI model comes out you know I'm
going to cover it in depth and I'll give
you all the information so be sure to
subscribe to my channel and as a
reminder I have an awesome newsletter so
you can stay up to dat in the latest AI
Trends and news Matthew burman.com check
it out if you enjoyed this video please
consider giving a like And subscribe and
I'll see you in the next one
Voir Plus de Vidéos Connexes
GPT Q* Strawberry Imminent, Sam Altman Trolls (Model Already Secretly Live??)
OpenAI ORION (GPT-5) Arrives with Strawberry AI This Fall: AGI Soon!
How OpenAI Strawberry Works â "ONE TEXTBOOK TO RULE THEM ALL" â My Educated Guess
AI News: The AI Arms Race is Getting Insane!
AI News: Will AI Art Be Outlawed?
Stunning New OpenAI Details Reveal MORE! (Project Strawberry/Q* Star)
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)