Former RBI Governor C Rangarajan On The Path To The Viksit Bharat | EXCLUSIVE
Summary
TLDRIn this Independence Day special, Dr. Rangarajan, former Reserve Bank of India Governor, reflects on India's economic journey post-independence. He highlights India's rise to the fifth largest economy, self-sufficiency in food grain, and success in the service industry. Dr. Rangarajan also discusses policy shifts in the '90s, emphasizing the importance of reforms, investment rates, and job creation for India to become a developed nation by 2047. The conversation underscores the significance of the RBI's autonomy and its role in shaping India's economic policies.
Takeaways
- 😀 India is now recognized as the fifth largest economy in the world, a significant achievement considering its large population.
- 🌾 India has achieved self-sufficiency in food grain, a crucial development from the food scarcity of the 1950s and 1960s.
- 💻 The service industry, particularly computer-related services, has seen remarkable growth, with India becoming one of the largest exporters of these services.
- 🏭 India possesses a reasonably strong industrial base capable of producing a variety of capital goods, intermediate goods, and consumer goods.
- 👨👩👧👦 India's fertility rate has decreased to near two, suggesting that the population may stabilize within a couple of decades.
- 📉 A major policy mistake was the continuation of a development strategy from the 1950s that included high savings and investment rates, a dominant role for the state, import substitution, and emphasis on heavy industry, which was not adapted until the 1990s.
- 📈 The 1991 economic crisis led to significant reforms, including the dismantling of the complex system of permits and licenses, redefining the state's role, and embracing international trade.
- 🏦 Dr. Rangarajan, during his tenure as RBI Governor, played a pivotal role in converting the dollar-rupee rate to a market-driven exchange rate and liberalizing bank lending and deposit rates.
- 🏢 To achieve the goal of becoming a developed economy by 2047, India needs to maintain an investment rate of around 35% of GDP and create an environment conducive to private investment.
- 👩💼 Addressing the challenge of job creation and employment growth is critical for India's development, with a focus on sectors that are labor-intensive and can absorb new technologies.
Q & A
What significant economic reforms did Dr. Rangarajan implement during his tenure as the Reserve Bank Governor?
-Dr. Rangarajan implemented several revolutionary steps including the conversion of the dollar-rupee exchange rate from an administered rate to a market-driven one, liberalization of bank lending and deposit rates, and ending the government's unlimited power to borrow.
How did Dr. Rangarajan's policies impact India's position in the global economy?
-India's economic reforms under Dr. Rangarajan's guidance led to it being recognized as the fifth largest economy in the world, showing significant growth and development compared to previous decades.
What was Dr. Rangarajan's view on India's self-sufficiency in food grain?
-Dr. Rangarajan considered India's self-sufficiency in food grain as a very important development, especially when compared to the difficult food situation in the 1950s and 1960s.
How did Dr. Rangarajan assess the performance of the service industry in India?
-He praised the service industry, particularly the computer-related service industries, stating that India has done very well and is considered one of the largest exporters of these services.
What was Dr. Rangarajan's opinion on India's industrial base?
-Dr. Rangarajan believed that India has a reasonably strong industrial base capable of producing a variety of capital goods, intermediate goods, and consumer goods.
What demographic trend did Dr. Rangarajan highlight as a positive development for India?
-He mentioned that India's fertility rate has come down to close to two, indicating that the population may stabilize in another two decades, which is a positive development.
What policy mistake did Dr. Rangarajan identify from India's past economic strategies?
-He identified the strategy of import substitution and the emphasis on heavy industry as elements that needed change, which did not occur until almost two decades later, resulting in a slower growth rate for the economy.
What was the most significant achievement of the economic reforms in 1991 according to Dr. Rangarajan?
-The most significant achievement was not just solving the immediate crisis but also introducing reforms that dismantled the complex system of permits, licenses, and controls, redefined the role of the state, and embraced international trade.
What advice does Dr. Rangarajan have for the governance of public sector banks?
-He suggests ensuring a proper system of selection for board members and making the board of directors responsible for the functioning of the banking system to improve efficiency.
What are the key policy changes Dr. Rangarajan recommends for India to become a developed country by 2047?
-He recommends maintaining a high investment rate, adopting a multi-dimensional development strategy, and focusing on job creation, especially in sectors that are more labor-intensive.
How does Dr. Rangarajan view the role of the Reserve Bank of India over the past few decades?
-He views the RBI as a strong institution with Governors of high integrity and scholarly excellence, maintaining its independence and providing leadership in monetary policy, especially with the adoption of the inflation targeting framework.
Outlines
📈 Economic Achievements and Policy Reflections
Dr. Rangarajan, a veteran policy maker and former Reserve Bank Governor, reflects on India's economic progress since its independence, highlighting its rise to the fifth largest economy, self-sufficiency in food grain, and advancements in the service industry. He also discusses the revolutionary steps taken during his tenure, including the transition to a market-driven exchange rate and the liberalization of bank lending and deposit rates. The conversation touches on India's industrial base and population stabilization, as well as the need for a high-income economy by 2047.
🔄 Historical Policy Critique and Financial Sector Reforms
In this segment, Dr. Rangarajan critiques India's past development strategies, particularly the import substitution policy and the emphasis on heavy industry, which he believes hindered growth. He acknowledges the need for change in the 1970s and 1980s but notes that reforms were delayed until 1991. The discussion shifts to the banking sector, where Dr. Rangarajan emphasizes the importance of competition and proper governance, suggesting that public sector banks need to become more competitive and that their board of directors should be selected through a robust system to ensure efficiency.
🛠️ Policy Shifts for a Developed India by 2047
Dr. Rangarajan outlines the necessary policy shifts for India to become a developed nation by 2047. He stresses the importance of increasing the per capita income, which requires sustained growth rates of around 6-7%. He advocates for a high investment rate, particularly from private sectors, and a multi-dimensional development strategy that goes beyond export-led growth. Additionally, he addresses the critical challenge of job creation and the need for a balance between high technology and labor-intensive sectors to ensure sustainable employment.
🏛️ Political Stability and Economic Aspirations
The conversation turns to India's political achievements, with Dr. Rangarajan acknowledging the country's ability to maintain democracy and avoid fragmentation despite economic challenges. He differentiates between political and economic achievements, noting that while India has done well in both areas, there is room for improvement, especially in job provision and economic well-being. The discussion underscores the interconnectedness of political stability and economic development in the country's journey towards becoming a developed nation.
🏦 RBI's Performance and Autonomy
Dr. Rangarajan evaluates the performance of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) over the past several decades, commending its strong institutional framework and the integrity of its governors. He discusses the evolution of the RBI's role, from a supportive entity during the planning period to an independent body with greater autonomy, particularly after the introduction of the inflation targeting framework. Dr. Rangarajan supports the current policy framework and the autonomy it provides to the RBI, emphasizing the importance of maintaining this independence for the benefit of the economy and society.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Independence
💡Policymaker
💡Exchange Rate
💡Liberalization
💡Economic Advisory Council
💡Service Industry
💡Fertility Rate
💡Development Strategy
💡Public Sector Banks
💡Autonomy
💡Inflation Targeting
Highlights
India is now the fifth largest economy in the world, a significant achievement considering its large population.
India has achieved self-sufficiency in food grain, a crucial development from the difficult food situations in the 1950s and 1960s.
The service industry, particularly computer-related services, has performed well, with India being one of the largest exporters of these services.
India has a reasonably strong industrial base capable of producing a variety of capital, intermediate, and consumer goods.
India's fertility rate has decreased to close to two, indicating potential population stabilization in the coming decades.
The 1991 economic crisis was a turning point, leading to significant reforms and the dismantling of the complex system of permits and licenses.
The role of the state was redefined, and the policy of import substitution was abandoned in favor of international trade.
The decision to devalue the currency and ship gold in 1991 was a difficult but necessary step to overcome economic challenges.
Public sector banks were listed, introducing a competitive system in the banking industry and improving efficiency.
The governance of public sector banks needs improvement, with a focus on the selection and responsibility of board directors.
For India to become a developed country by 2047, a per capita income increase to $113,000 is required, implying a growth rate of 6-7%.
The investment rate in India must remain at 35% of GDP to achieve the goal of becoming a developed country.
A multi-dimensional approach to development is necessary, moving beyond a single-goal strategy like export-led growth.
The challenge of job creation and employment is critical, with the need for a combination of high-tech and labor-intensive sectors.
Maintaining democracy and political stability in India is a significant achievement, especially when compared to regional and global contexts.
The Reserve Bank of India has been a strong institution with Governors of high integrity and scholarly excellence.
The autonomy and independence of the Reserve Bank have increased, especially with the adoption of the inflation targeting framework.
The new policy framework provides the Reserve Bank with the freedom to make independent decisions regarding monetary policy.
Transcripts
[Music]
welcome to Indian nomics India completes
77 years of Independence and at this
emotional juncture I thought it fit to
invite one of India's longest serving
policy makers Dr s rangarajan Dr
rangarajan was Reserve Bank Governor
from 1992 to
1997 during which time he converted
the dollar rupee from an administered
rate to a market driven exchange rate
Bank lending and deposit rates which
were set by The Reserve Bank were
liberalized and the government's
unlimited power to borrow was also ended
in short a lot of revolutionary steps Dr
Rajan of course continued his Innings of
policymaking as the chairman of the
prime minister's economic advisory
Council from 2004 to 2014 in between he
was also chairman of the 12th Finance
Commission
and of course he headed numerous other
important committees and commissions
notably like the statistics commission I
don't think we can get a wiser voice to
glance at the past 77 years and guide us
about the future than Padma Vian Dr
rangarajan sir thank you very much
indeed for joining us on a very
auspicious day okay thank you well first
up Sir you've uh seen a better part of
this 77 years and 37 of those as
actually policy maker uh what would you
say is the biggest achievement of the
Indian
economy Well India is now um described
as the fifth largest economy in the
world um of course we are a big country
uh we have a huge population uh that
itself gives us a large economy
nevertheless I think that as compared to
what it was in two decades ago uh coming
up to the level of the fifth largest
economy is an achievement by itself
though there are other important
problems secondly I would say that the
we have achieved self-sufficiency in
food grain um that is uh very important
development when you look at what we
were and and how difficult the food
situation was in India in the 50s and
60s thirdly I would say that in the case
of the service industry particularly the
computer related service Industries we
have done very well and we are counted
as one of the largest
exporters of the these Services um by
others therefore and I perhaps also
should mention that we do do have a
reasonably strong industrial base
capable of producing a variety of
capital goods intermediate goods and
consumer
goods also I will mention as lastly that
India's fertility rate has come down to
close to two and therefore in another
two decades perhaps the population will
stabilize though we should have taken
earlier much earlier action nevertheless
it is a fact that we are now at a level
or at a stage where we can say that in
two decades from now the population will
stabilize Fair Point sir well if you
have to I I do want to ask you more
about our uh goal uh to become a
developed economy or at least High
income economy vixit bat by uh 2047 but
before that a little more reminiscing
what would you say was our biggest
policy mistake
uh that uh didn't allow us to become
like say the Asian
tigers well the in the 50s and 60s and
even up to 70s and even 80s uh India's
strategy of development contained let me
say four elements one was uh raising the
savings and investment rate uh the
second was a dominant role for the state
U what we used to call uh acquiring the
commanding Heights of the
the and the third was the policy of
import substitution that we should
produce in India what we were importing
and fourthly an emphas industrialization
with the emphasis on heavy
industry I would say in the 50s
particularly we had no
clear
um situation which explained how a
developing or a develop underdeveloped
country in those days the term used
could
become strongly developing economy yeah
therefore we can't blame the policy
makers of of the 50s but it came to me
came clear that as we move further and
as we were approaching towards the end
of 70s or something the strategy that we
had adopted needed
change but I think the policy makers
didn't make the change at that time okay
it took us almost another two decades
before the changes could be made okay
therefore this broad strategy of
development that we adopted in the 50
though perhaps appropriate at that
particular time lost its way and I think
that resulted in our rate of growth um
of the economy um being around 3.7%
till the end of 1970s yeah I think we
needed a change at that time and we make
the change okay so the 70s and 8s
perhaps were the L decades till we found
ourselves uh in uh you know
1991 uh well coming to 1991
itself uh what do you think was the
toughest and the biggest achievement at
that
time well the point is
that there were two things one was to
manage the crisis because we have to get
out of the crisis yes that 1990 and
1991 yes steps to be taken first of all
to stabilize and then we felt that after
stabilizing we need to reform the Accord
because it is not question of just
simply the solving the problem the
balance of payments problem of 90 or 91
we have to build an economy which will
not face such crisises from time to time
and therefore we moved on uh to
introduce reforms and that started
almost in the 1991 and it picked up
speed in the next years and then it was
followed up by various governments I
would say the
decision to devalue in in in a deep way
in two states and even to ship gold yes
in 1991 period in order to overcome some
of the problems M are difficult
decisions and they had to be taken but
the most important thing is we did not
stop with solving the problems moved on
to make
reforms and if I would say in a short
sentence that we made a break with the
past in three important ways one we
dismantle the complex system of permits
and licenses and controls that dominated
the system second we redefined the role
of the state and thirdly we gave up the
policy of import substitution yeah at
any cost and decided to embrace the
international
tra so I will come back to the policies
that you have mentioned because we seem
to be going back to some of those
policies especially import substitution
under a diluted version called atbar but
more on that later let me come to the
way in which we handle public sector
Banks uh uh because that's uh that came
directly under the Reserve Bank you know
you under you and of course Dr Manan
Singh and the others you all got First
State Bank listed and eventually through
the decade other public sector Banks got
listed but since then we have not made
any major change in the governance of
public sector Banks what would you
advise some time ago your Deputy at that
time Dr Edy had said that they should be
brought under the company Act act what
would your advice be to the current
regime no I think the the most important
point is
that several steps were taken to um
introduce um and to initiate a
competitive system in the banking system
in the final analysis it is competition
that will finally lead to efficiency in
the system and um that uh attempt was um
uh um taken care of by allowing new um
private sector Banks into the banking
industry it's my time and as a result of
it I think we do have a situation in
which almost 30% of the banking system
is now in the private sector so we
really need to ensure that this
competitive system
does does REM and and we we really have
to ensure that
the the public sector banks in order to
survive and grow need to be very uh
competitive but you were asking about
the governance and so on I think the
most important thing is that the
um the the board of directors and how
they are nominated and how they selected
is a key thing in the final analysis the
management of a bank rests with the the
the board of directors and therefore the
most the key thing that I would really
recommend is ensure a proper system of
selection of people to the board of
directors and make the board of
directors as a whole responsible for the
functioning of the banking system and
that I think is a critical variable in
making the banking system more efficient
your point is taken S I think that's
what Dr red also argued in 2000 and
later on the PJ n Committee in 2013 that
bringing under the companies act uh you
know the board gets more powerful they
get independent directors and uh maybe
that will introduce the governance
element also the government can't use
PSU banks for their schemes like mudra
Etc which ties them down and leaves
private sector Banks a little Freer uh I
will time permitting ask you more about
the banking system but uh you also wrote
In the Hindu about how we should chase
our new goal of a vixit bat a developed
India by
2047 what would you say should be the
first two or three major policy changes
we need to
do first of all I think in order to be a
developed country our per capita income
has to move from the current level of
something like
$2,500 to
$113,000 M and this requires according
to the calculations made by several um
on on on some assumptions regarding the
price level inflation and the uh the
exchange rate we we need to we need to
grow at between six and 7% but perhaps
closer to
7% this
requires that the gross fixed capital
pration rate or the investment rate let
us say has to be about 35% if you assume
an incremental Capital output ratio of 5
is to one I think the the incremental
Capital output ratio in recent period
has been around five therefore the first
thing that we really need to do is that
we ensure that the investment rate in
the country REM remains at 35% of GDP
and um that is critical if you really
want to become a developed country we
are close to it I think we are now about
30
33.3% of the GDP and therefore it is not
something that
is it's beyond us but my my but but
there is one point there the recent
increase
in um investment rate has been because
of the uh increase in capital
expenditures by the government of
India that is not the answer I think the
real answer lies in the private
investment picking up because the
increase in capital expenditure or by
the central government has also been
followed by high fiscal deficit you look
at the fiscal deficit of the government
of India in the last four years they are
way above the 3% of the GDP which was
considered to be the appropriate
therefore we have to create appropriate
investment the climate for private
investment to pick up so that is one of
the important things that we have to to
do yeah the the the second thing is on
the strategy of development I think the
government must have some idea and I
would say
that the strategy of development must be
multi-dimensional the East Asian tigers
adopted a single goal yeah like exports
export Le growth now that export Le
growth is not possible now first of all
the developed countries are not growing
that fast second of all there is a
change in the attitude of the um
developed countries in terms of free
trade therefore while exports are
important the external demand is
important and in some sense exports are
critical test of efficiency of the
economy therefore we cannot ignore
exports but it is not the export Le
strategy that will really lead us to a
higher level and I and I would really
say that we really need to
um have a multi-dimensional approach to
strategy of development and the third
point that I would mention is that the
mo the
most or the biggest
challenge that is go that India will
have to face is about jobs yes and
employment yes um the the fact is
that the employment growth is not as
fast as the income grow growth it is
true jobless growth is bad but jobs
without growth is not sustainable yes
let us not say that let's go let us fill
the vacancies in the government of India
or the state governments that's not the
way to go about I think the real problem
is going to be that the new technologies
that are looming in the Horizon yes are
going to make the problem even more
difficult how to solve the problem the
solving the problem simple problem is
you can say why are you growing at 7%
why don't you grow at 8% yeah that is
not going to be very easy also because
of so many other considerations
including
um environmental control the need to
control emissions and so on and so forth
the thing is that even in spite of the
induction of high
technology there are sectors of the
economy which are relatively more labor
intensive I would suggest like food
processing industry I think what is
really required is a combination of
sectors of the
economy which will be partly highly um
labor intensive labor not Capital
intensive not I would that high
technology in iive and sectors of
economy which are relatively more labor
intensive I think that is the only way
in which we can really solve the the
problem the therefore these are the
three things I would mention which are
critically important if you want to get
to be a developed country by 2047 that's
a very succinct blueprint for how we
should proceed dran I have to take a
quick break and back with just a couple
of more questions
[Music]
welcome back to this very special uh
Independence Day special with Dr
rangarajan this is an economic special
Dr rangarajan thank you very much for
your patience so just a couple of
questions more would you say that uh one
of our big achievements is not economic
political I mean we did not fall apart
like say the Soviet Union or even
Britain is now threatening to uh and
secondly we maintained our democracy
would you say these are you know at
least as big if not bigger achievements
than our Economic
Development well um
politically um we have had some problems
as well and we continue to her problems
but certainly it is a tribute to the
people of this country that we remind a
democracy we remind I mean we cherish uh
some of the freedoms that have been
given the Constitution uh particularly
when we look at it um in the context of
what is happening in our neighboring
countries and in several parts of Asia
and Africa so that is true but you asked
me the first question was about what are
been our achievements yes therefore in
that context you will see that our
economic
achievements have fallen short of our
expectations yes and
they also fallen short of what many
other countries have done for example
South Korea yeah was an underdeveloped
country and its per capita income was
the same as that of India in the
1950s but then it has become a developed
country it is part of oecd and so on
therefore our aspirations to become a
developed country uh is very much
Justified yeah but at the same time I
think we have fallen short of our
expectations but nevertheless we
have as far as the economy is concerned
able to achieve many things um therefore
it is very difficult to compare
political achievements versus the
economic achievements I would only say
that in the case of both we have done
well in many respects and we can be
proud of what the achievements there but
at the same time we need to recognize
that we have fallen short of our own
expectation yes and we really need to uh
drive faster yeah no I agree with you
sir falling short in terms of providing
jobs to everybody and falling short in
terms of providing economic well-being
to everybody is also a political failure
and not just an economic failure I take
your point on that well finally Dr
rangarajan I still remember you as the
RBI Governor uh the RBI Governor par
exelans so uh let me uh conclude by
asking you what would be your uh comment
on the RBI uh its performance over the
last 30 40 years when you you know when
you have been uh you know heading the
ship well I think
RBI has been a strong
institution and uh people who have been
appointed as Governors have
been men I think so farly men men of
excellence and high
integrity uh and very scholarly um
therefore in in a sense the institution
has maintained its Integrity the
institution has been able to provide a
leadership in the area in which it has
been charged and therefore I I would
rate the performance of The Reserve Bank
of India um as very high um and the the
one issue that have been coming up
frequently has been the um autonomy or
Independence of the The Reserve Bank um
in the early period uh the in the the
planning period uh certainly uh
the dominant thinking was uh that the
government uh is playing an important
role and The Reserve Bank and many other
institutions are supposed to play a
supportive role I think that also
resulted in um BS of inflation from time
time to
time so so the the therefore the
important change that came around around
the early 1990s and continuing is really
to give a greater amount of autonomy and
Independence in the final analysis it is
the act of The Reserve Bank of India
which does it yes so as you mentioned
earlier we did away with automatic
monetization of fiscal deficit and so on
and did away with um determining the
deposit rate and so on yeah and I think
the after the fiscal responsibility in
the budget management act uh the other
important change was the uh inflation
targeting framework yes I believe that
it is an important development as far as
the Reserve Bank is concerned and the
way in which the Reserve Bank of India
has managed the the new framework is is
very good okay excellent and I I would
say that that gives
really um the the power of Independence
or autonomy to the to the Reserve Bank
after all even the governor of The
Reserve Bank or the Finance Minister
does not do not know whether the policy
rate is to be is going to be raised or
lowered yes it is really the monetary
policy committee which decides it
therefore I would really say that the
the the new framework gives the required
Freedom or autonomy for the for the for
the Reserve Bank and I'm quite sure that
there are issues that are arising even
with respect to the new policy framework
yes um how much time should we allow uh
the um uh the inflation rate to be
hanging be outside the the limit yes and
how quickly we should you do it and so
on and so forth I think the questions
are still um hanging around but I think
the experience of the management of the
new policy framework has been um good
and therefore I think as we go along we
should really um strengthen these
mechanism therefore
I to conclude this part of it I would
say that yes the Reserve Bank of India
has done well extremely well and um the
the the government and others also must
recognize that it is good to give this
freedom and autonomy to The Reserve Bank
it is to the good of the economy good to
the good of the society okay thank you
very much Dr agajan I believe you're 90
years old and to have such a Clear
Vision and advice for both the
government and the Reserve Bank at this
juncture is extremely uh creditable and
uh we are thankful to God that you are
still around to give us advice thank you
very much and here's wishing you every
happiness and good health okay thank you
thank you very much well that's it on
this very special edition of
Independence Day indan omits thanks for
watching
[Music]
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