What Does THIS Mean for Stocks?

Summary

Der Skript bietet eine umfassende Analyse der aktuellen Aktienmarktsituation mit einem Schwerpunkt auf dem erneuten Anstieg der Aktien und der historischen Volatilität. Es diskutiert die Parallelen zur Bull-Trap der 90er Jahre und die Kaufaktivitäten von großen Investoren, insbesondere bei Walmart. Zudem werden positive Wirtschaftsdaten, wie steigende Einzelhandelsverkauf und fallende Arbeitslosenansprüche, sowie die Einstellung von Goldman Sachs gegenüber Bitcoin thematisiert. Der VIX-Index und seine ungewöhnliche Vertiefung werden ebenso betrachtet wie die langfristigen Auswirkungen auf den Markt und die Bedeutung der künstlichen Intelligenz für Produktivitätssteigerungen in Unternehmen wie Walmart.

Takeaways

• 📈 Aktienmarkt steigt wieder an, zeigt aber extreme Volatilität, vergleichbar mit den 90er Jahren oder könnte es ein Bull Trap sein.
• 🛒 Große Investoren kaufen, Walmart erreicht neue Allzeithochstände, während Gesundheitsnotstand ausgerufen wird.
• 📉 Retail-Umsätze steigen, Arbeitslosenansprüche fallen, Goldman Sachs investiert in Bitcoin.
• 📊 VIX-Index zeigt einen historischen Rückgang, was auf eine schnelle Marktwiederherstellung hindeutet.
• 💹 Alle Wachstumssektoren und Risikomaßnahmen sind grün, außer Bitcoin, der nicht an der Rally teilnimmt.
• 📊 VIX-Crush hat in der Vergangenheit fast immer zu einem Anstieg des Marktes ein Jahr später geführt.
• 📉 Volatilitäts-Risiko-Prämie zeigt, dass der Markt erwartet, dass Volatilität in der Zukunft sinkt.
• 🚀 NASDAQ und Russell 2 zeigen Anzeichen für eine Erholung, aber es gibt noch Arbeit zu leisten.
• 🛍️ Positive Nachrichten wie gestiegene Einzelhandelsverkauf und fallende Arbeitslosenzahlen trösten den Markt.
• 🤖 Walmart nutzt künstliche Intelligenz, um Produktivität zu steigern und Kosten zu sparen.
• 🌐 Weltgesundheitsorganisation erklärt wegen Pocken eine globale Gesundheitsnotstand, aber der Fokus liegt auf den positiven Wirtschaftsdaten.

Q & A

Was passiert in der Aktienmarkt-Analyse, die im Skript erwähnt wird?

Der Aktienmarkt hat erneut stark zugelegt, und es wird diskutiert, ob die historische Volatilität ein Zeichen für eine Bull Trap oder eine ähnliche Situation wie in den 90er Jahren ist.

Was bedeutet 'Volatilität Crush' und warum ist es im Skript wichtig?

Ein 'Volatilität Crush' bezieht sich auf eine plötzliche Verringerung der Volatilität, die im Skript als bemerkenswert und historisch einzigartig beschrieben wird, da sie in nur acht Handelssitzungen stattfand.

Was ist der Zusammenhang zwischen dem VIX-Index und der Realisierten Volatilität?

Der VIX-Index repräsentiert die durchschnittliche implizite Volatilität von S&P 500 Index-Optionen für den nächsten Monat, während die Realisierte Volatilität die tatsächliche Volatilität des Marktes ist. Im Skript wird darauf hingewiesen, dass ein großer Crush im Volatilität Risiko-Premium, also der Unterschied zwischen VIX und Realisierter Volatilität, oft ein guter Tailwind für Optionen-Dealer ist.

Welche Rolle spielt die Aktienrückkehr von Walmart in der Diskussion im Skript?

Walmarts Aktienrückkehr wird als ein Beispiel für positive Entwicklungen im Markt genannt, da das Unternehmen neue Rekorde und因其超过预期的销售额而达到历史新高。

Was ist die Bedeutung der von Goldman Sachs durchgeführten Bitcoin-Investitionen?

Goldman Sachs' Einstieg in den Bitcoin-Markt zeigt, dass auch traditionelle Finanzinstitute an der Akzeptanz und Investition in Kryptowährungen interessiert sind, was als Struktureller Tailwind für die Krypto-Welt angesehen wird.

Was sind die Hauptfaktoren, die zu den positiven Entwicklungen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt beigetragen haben?

Die im Skript erwähnten positiven Entwicklungen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt umfassen eine Verringerung der Arbeitslosenzahlen und eine Erhöhung der Einzelhandelsverkauf, was auf eine stabile bis wachsende Wirtschaft hindeutet.

Was ist die Beziehung zwischen den Diskussionen über Inflationsbedenken und den aktuellen Marktverhaltens?

Obwohl Inflationsbedenken vor einigen Monaten eine der Hauptsorgen des Marktes waren, haben sich die Bedenken in den letzten Monaten auf die Möglichkeit einer bevorstehenden Rezession verschoben. Die aktuelle Marktentwicklung deutet jedoch darauf hin, dass weder die Föderalreserve noch die Aktienmärkte auf eine Rezession hinwirken.

Was bedeuten die Diskussionen über die Föderalreserve und die möglichen Zinssenkungen?

Die Diskussionen über die Föderalreserve im Skript legen nahe, dass es möglicherweise keine dringende Notwendigkeit für eine Zinssenkung gibt, da die Wirtschaft weiterhin stark aussieht und die Inflationsrate abnimmt.

Welche Rolle spielen die Diskussionen über die globale Gesundheitsnotstand und die Pocken-Epidemie für den Markt?

Obwohl die WHO den Pocken-Ausbruch als globalen Gesundheitsnotstand erklärt hat, deutet die Marktreaktion darauf hin, dass dies nicht als materialer Risiko betrachtet wird und die WHO möglicherweise vorsichtiger reagiert, um Kritik wie im Fall von COVID-19 zu vermeiden.

Was sind die langfristigen Trends, die im Skript als Investitionsziele für zukünftige Gewinne identifiziert werden?

Im Skript werden langfristige Trends wie künstliche Intelligenz, saubere Energie, Cannabis, synthetische Biologie und Weltraumtechnik als Bereiche identifiziert, die langfristig von Interesse für Investoren sein könnten.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Aktienmarkt steigt erneut - Bullenfalle oder historisches Volatilitätsmaximum?

Der erste Absatz spricht über den erneuten Anstieg des Aktienmarktes und vergleicht die gegenwärtige Volatilität mit den 90er Jahren. Es wird diskutiert, ob wir uns dem Ende einer Bullenfalle nähern oder ob die Marktsituation anfangs 90er Jahre ähnelt. Es wird auf den Kauf von Aktien durch große Investoren, den Rekordhochstand von Walmart, globale Gesundheitsnotstände, steigende Einzelhandelsverkauf und fallende Arbeitslosenansprüche hingewiesen. Zudem erwähnt der Autor, dass Goldman Sachs in Bitcoin investiert hat. Es wird auf die grüne Farbe des Marktes und die roten Wachstumssektoren eingegangen, was für Bullen positiv ist. Der Schwerpunkt liegt auf der Volatilität des Marktes und dem historischen Volatilitäts-Crush der VIX, der in acht Handelssitzungen von 382 auf 15,2 gesunken ist, was einen 60%igen Verfall bedeutet. Historische Daten zeigen, dass nach einer solchen Volatilitätsreduzierung die meisten Male ein Anstieg ein Jahr später zu beobachten war. Die Diskussion um die Volatilitäts-Risikopremie und die prognostizierte zukünftige Volatilität durch den VIX-Index wird erläutert, wobei eine negative Volatilitäts-Risikopremie auftritt, wenn der Markt eine niedrigere zukünftige Volatilität erwartet.

05:00

🚀 Tech-Aktien und die Potenziale der künstlichen Intelligenz (AI)

Der zweite Absatz konzentriert sich auf die Entwicklung des Tech-Marktes und die Six-Day-Veränderung, bei der Tech-Aktien um über 11% gestiegen sind. Es wird diskutiert, ob dies ein bullish Zeichen ist, insbesondere nach einem scharfen Tief oder über ihrem langfristigen Durchschnitt. Der Absatz erwähnt die Beschleunigung von Unternehmensergebnissen und die wachsende US-Wirtschaft. Es wird auch auf vergangene Erfahrungen mit den Tech-Aktien in den 90er Jahren und den damaligen Fed-Chef Alan Greenspans Kommentar über die 'irrationale Begeisterung' des Marktes hingewiesen. Die Diskussion um die AI-Boom und die potenziellen Produktivitätsgewinne durch AI in Unternehmen wie Walmart wird erweitert. Der Absatz schließt mit der Aussage, dass die AI-Technologie in naher Zukunft jeden Bereich und Unternehmen erreichen wird, um Produktivität und Effizienz zu verbessern.

10:02

🛒 Einzelhandelsverkauf und Arbeitslosigkeit - Wirtschaftliche Indikatoren

Der dritte Absatz behandelt die wirtschaftlichen Indikatoren, einschließlich des Anstiegs des Einzelhandelsverkaufes um 1% im Juli, was über den Erwartungen von 0,3% liegt. Es wird auf die positiven Ergebnisse von Walmart und die damit verbundenen Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaft diskutiert. Es wird auch auf die fallenden wöchentlichen Arbeitslosenansprüche und die Industrieproduktion eingegangen, die niedriger als erwartet war. Der Absatz betont, dass die US-Wirtschaft stark ist, die Arbeitslosenzahlen fallen und die Verbraucher weiterhin ausgeben, was für eine Rezession spricht, die von einigen erwartet wird.

15:03

📉 Rohstoffmärkte und die Auswirkungen auf die Wirtschaft

In diesem Absatz werden die Schwierigkeiten im Rohstoffsektor und die Warnungen des weltweit größten Stahlherstellers vor einer kommenden Industriekrise beschrieben, die schlimmer sein könnte als die des Jahres 2008. Es wird auf die chinesischen Importe von Silber und Gold eingegangen, die einen Anstieg verzeichnen, während der Preis für Rohöl und die meisten anderen Rohstoffe in den letzten Monaten schwach blieben. Der Absatz diskutiert auch die Auswirkungen von geopolitischen Risiken auf den Goldpreis und die Rolle der Zentralbanken bei der Verwaltung von Bitcoin im Hinblick auf die bevorstehenden Wahlen in den USA.

20:04

📊 Historische Perspektiven und technische Analyse

Der fünfte und letzte Absatz präsentiert einen historischen Überblick über den Aktienmarkt und die Anwendung von technischer Analyse, die ähnliche Muster wie heute zeigt. Es wird ein Beispiel aus dem Eisenbahnboom der 1880er Jahre gegeben, um zu zeigen, wie ähnliche Muster wie heutzutage zu dem Zeitpunkt aufgetreten sind. Der Absatz schließt mit einer Betrachtung der aktuellen Marktsituation, einschließlich der Furcht vor zukünftiger Volatilität und der Bedeutung, diese zu einem niedrigen VIX-Wert zu kaufen. Es wird auf die globale Aktienatmosphäre und die Bedeutung der bevorstehenden Ereignisse in Bezug auf die FOMC-Mitglieder und die Preisbewegungen verschiedener Aktienmärkte eingegangen.

Keywords

💡Volatilität

Volatilität ist ein wirtschaftlicher Begriff, der die Fähigkeit eines Finanzinstruments beschreibt, schnell und stärk an Wert zu verlieren oder zu gewinnen. Im Video wird die Volatilität als historischer 'Crush' beschrieben, was auf einen plötzlichen, starken Rückgang hinweist, der viele überrascht hat, einschließlich des Sprechers. Ein Beispiel ist die Rückkehr des VIX-Index von einem hohen Stand von 382 auf 15,2, was eine 60%ige Absenkung in nur acht Handelssitzungen darstellt.

💡VIX

Der VIX, auch bekannt als der 'Fear Index', ist ein Maß für die erwartete Volatilität des S&P 500-Index und wird oft als Indikator für Marktbefürchtungen verwendet. Im Video wird die historische Senkung des VIX-Index als ein Zeichen für die Rückkehr der Stabilität und des Vertrauens der Investoren im Markt diskutiert.

💡Bull Trap

Ein Bull Trap ist eine Marktbewegung, bei der der Preis eines Vermögenswerts oder einer Börsenindex kurzfristig ansteigt, um dann erneut stark zu fallen, wodurch Investoren, die aufgrund der Anhebung gekauft haben, in eine Falle geraten. Im Video wird dies als mögliche Auswirkung der aktuellen Marktsituation angesprochen, mit der Andeutung, dass die Aktienmärkte möglicherweise nicht unmittelbar neue Allzeithochs erreichen werden.

💡Walmart

Walmart ist in diesem Video als Beispiel für ein Unternehmen aufgeführt, das mit einem Anstiegen der Aktienkurse reagiert hat, nachdem es über bessere als erwartete Umsätze und Umsatzprognosen berichtet hat. Dies zeigt, wie Einzelunternehmen trotz einer angespannten Wirtschaftslage erfolgreich sein können und wie wichtig Unternehmensergebnisse für den Aktienkurs sind.

💡Global Health Emergency

Eine globale Gesundheitsnotlage ist eine von der Weltgesundheitsorganisation (WHO) ausgerufene Situation, in der ein Gesundheitsereignis von internationaler Tragweite ist und eine koordinierte internationale Reaktion erfordert. Im Video wird dies als eine Reaktion auf die Monkeypox-Ausbreitung diskutiert, die zu einer Zunahme von Gesundheits- und Impfstoffaktien geführt hat.

💡Retail Sales

Durchschnittsverkaufswerte beziehen sich auf den Gesamtumsatz, den Einzelhändler in einer bestimmten Zeit erzielen. Im Video wird ein Anstieg der Verkaufszahlen im Juli als ein positives Zeichen für die US-Wirtschaft und den Konsum beschrieben, was die Bedenken über einen möglichen Einbruch des Konsums verringert.

💡Jobless Claims

Arbeitslosenansprüche sind eine statistische Kennzahl, die die Anzahl der Personen misst, die in der Vergangenen Woche Anspruch auf Arbeitslosengeld stellen. Im Video werden sinkende Ansprüche als ein Zeichen für die Stärke des Arbeitsmarktes und eine gesunde Wirtschaft interpretiert.

💡Goldman Sachs

Goldman Sachs ist eine führende Investmentbank, die in diesem Video erwähnt wird, in Zusammenhang mit ihrer Einstellung zum Bitcoin und dem Kauf von Bitcoin-ETF-Anteilen. Dies zeigt, dass auch traditionelle Finanzinstitute an der Akzeptanz und Investition in Kryptowährungen interessiert sind.

💡AI Boom

Der AI Boom bezieht sich auf die rapide Entwicklung und den Einsatz von Künstlicher Intelligenz in verschiedenen Bereichen der Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft. Im Video wird die Aussage eines Analysten zitiert, dass wir möglicherweise in der späten Phase eines AI-Booms sind, der ähnlich dem Internetboom der 90er Jahre sein könnte.

💡NASDAQ

Die NASDAQ ist eine der wichtigsten Börsen für Technologieaktien. Im Video wird die NASDAQ als Indikator für den aktuellen Zustand des Tech-Marktes und die Reaktion auf die Unternehmensergebnisse und wirtschaftlichen Indikatoren verwendet.

💡Kryptowährungen

Kryptowährungen sind digitale Währungen, die durch Kryptographie gesichert sind und oft als Mittel für alternative Investments angesehen werden. Im Video wird die Kryptowährung Bitcoin in den Kontext der aktuellen Marktbewegungen und der möglichen Auswirkungen von politischen Ereignissen wie einer möglichen Wahl gewandt.

Highlights

Stocks surge higher with the biggest volatility crush in history, raising questions about market stability.

S&P 500 oscillator indicator nailed the market low, similar to April's market fear peak.

Market sectors show a green rally with the exception of Bitcoin, indicating a broad-based recovery.

VIX index records an unprecedented 8-day drop, surprising many market observers.

Historical data suggests that after a VIX crush, markets tend to be higher a year later.

Volatility risk premium indicates a potential tailwind for options dealers as the market prices in lower future volatility.

Retail sales surge and jobless claims fall, signaling a healthy consumer market and jobs landscape.

Walmart's stock hits new all-time highs following strong earnings and raised sales forecasts.

AI boom compared to the internet boom of the '90s, suggesting a long-term growth trajectory for tech stocks.

Investor caution highlighted by defensive positioning in bonds and utilities despite strong corporate earnings.

Walmart's use of AI is improving efficiency and productivity, showcasing the technology's practical business applications.

Global Health Emergency declared for monkeypox, impacting health and vaccine stocks.

Goldman Sachs enters the Bitcoin ETF market, reflecting growing Wall Street interest in cryptocurrency.

Technical analysis patterns from the 1880s railroad era show similarities to modern market movements.

Market breadth and trend analysis suggest a potential long-term bullish trend despite short-term volatility.

Geopolitical tensions and economic indicators influence commodities and currency markets.

Market anticipation of Federal Reserve actions influences short-term economic outlook and investor sentiment.

Transcripts

coming up today stocks surge higher

again but the biggest volatility Crush

in history is this like the mid 90s or

are we getting to the end of a bull trap

more stocks big investors are buying

Walmart surges to new alltime highs wh

declares a global Health Emergency

retail sales surge jobless claims fall

and Goldman Sachs gets into Bitcoin it's

another big day guys let's get

[Music]

it and just like that starting to feel

like Groundhog Day here isn't it Market

squeezing higher again looks like we are

doing that v-shaped recovery and my very

best case scenario in the S&P 500

pullback could be playing out and looks

like my S&P 500 oscillator indicator

nailed the low just like it did back in

April never feels like it when you get

there and that maximum fear moment we

had last Monday morning and just look at

the market color a wash with green and

all the growth sectors red where all the

Bulls want to see it volatility bond

yields dollar Index and inflation

expectations anything really not

participating in this everything rally

is Bitcoin and I'll get back to that a

bit later on but all stock sectors and

other risk on measures are green across

the board so surely we're not going back

to New alltime highs anytime soon right

and you can just imagine all those

people that loaded into put options last

Monday morning on that Peak fear so a

lot of those puts would be down 80 90%

by now not only the huge sharp move in

the Delta but just the absolute Crush in

the vix which has surprised a lot of

people myself included we've literally

retraced 50 points from last Monday's

high in just eight sessions something I

didn't even think was possible last

Monday I was quite confident we'd seen

the high in the vix for the year but I

was not expecting to see a 15 handle the

following Thursday and that's because we

just broke a new record and by quite a

large margin as well we'd already broken

the 5day 6 day 7day and now we've just

done that 8 day record for the biggest

percentage Crush in the vix we closed

last Monday at 382 here we are today at

15.2 that's a 60% drop in eight trading

sessions looking back in history the

last 19 times we had a big vix Crush

over eight trading sessions all but one

of them we were higher a year later

maximum fear usually a pretty good

starting point to measure returns from

like I showed you in previous data

points in the short term can get a

little muddy in the first month can

continue to see a little can continue to

see a little sideways up and down

however this time it's been a pretty

sharp v-shaped recovery and here's

another visualization just to show what

an absolute abnormality this vix Crush

has been looking back in history at vix

spikes when the vix has risen to close

above 35 as it did last Monday the index

has taken on average 170 trading session

before returning to 17.6 it's long-term

median reading and in fact in some

instances it's taken over 200 trading

days even 300 trading days we just did

it in eight another visualization of the

vix term structure using vix Futures

days to expiration here's Monday in the

green really popped up up the top we got

that backwardation where the second

month third month fourth month trade at

lower values then you can see last

Tuesday last Wednesday last Thursday and

then Friday and this week just

absolutely flattened out and in fact

we're already back to a normal state of

contango from right up the front on the

1 day then we've got the nday higher the

normal 30-day higher along with the

3month and 6 month so once again

volatility Market is back to normal

State pricing in higher volatility out

and like I've been pointing out to you

guys the last couple of days what was

really catching my eye was also the

massive crush and volatility risk

premium that's the the difference

between the VIX Index and realized

volatility so you can see even there

today the Market's still moving around

at an annualized rate of 21% however the

VIX Index which is a representation of

the average implied volatility of S&P

500 Index options over the next month

they're implying stock movement at an

annualized rate of 15% creates a

negative vrp of 5.7 and like I've

pointed out to you guys in the past

whenever we see that big Crush in vrp a

lot of the time good Tailwind for St

option dealers very good at pricing the

future with volatility they're happy to

sell premium 5 Points below where we're

actually trading in terms of volatility

they're forecasting lower volatility

around the corner I'd say a big part of

this pop we just got a string of bad

news and sediment coming into last week

and now we've kind of flipped and we've

got a number of good news especially

today on retail sales the jobs Market

Walmart earnings amongst other positive

developments so truly impressive this

bounce back NASDAQ back above it's

50-day Russell 2 still not quite there

even though it led the indices higher

today 22% pretty nice moves up on volume

Breet starting to get back up there same

with actual Brett stocks above their

50-day average and even though 52 we

highs outpaced new lows still a bit more

work to do there and it's also good to

see the 10year government bond yield

stabilizing in this support Zone as well

putting in a little bullish Divergence

on my DSI indicator don't even better

high yield bonds officially breaking out

to a new 52- we high today that is good

sign for risk on sediment and stick with

me today cuz I'll come back to bitcoin

and the commodity markets first just

getting back to the stock market looking

at the Six-Day change we've seen in tech

stocks bursting up over 11% last time we

saw that in late 2022 and in Co March

2020 see these momentum bursts and when

they occur after sharp lows or above

their long-term averages quite often

it's a bullish sign big rush of money

coming back into the market I think it

may have just got a bit carried away

with a Japanese Yen recession fears Etc

as I've been saying corporate earnings

are accelerating US economy is still

growing and even though there's signs

that we could be on the verge of a

recession certainly possible fed's set

to cut rates that's more often than not

associated with contractions in the

economy however we also saw the FED cut

rates in the mid 90s multiple times a

lot of people thought even back in '95

and 96 stocks were way overvalued then

fed chairman Alan Greenspan famously

quoted the stock market has been

irrationally exuberant in 1996 stocks

went on to rally for almost another five

years fact the NASDAQ more than tripled

after he said that but one similarity we

have between now and then is we could be

in the third or fourth Innings of the AI

boom just like they were at that point

of time in the internet boom like Dan

Ives from wedbush security says could be

9:00 p.m. in the AI party that's set to

go on to 4:00 a.m. and that's certainly

possible just regardless of the stock

market looking at the actual spending on

AI the use cases and I'll show you soon

what the Walmart CEO said about AI could

actually be driving some real

productivity gains in the economy

helping to continually increase

corporate margins and there was a lot of

people back in the mid late 90s didn't

like the valuation of tech stocks they

were shorting them a lot of really smart

guys blew up doing that they were right

in the end but they were early which is

just as bad as being completely wrong

and so hypothetically if you could go

back in time to 1995 would you short

teex stocks I mean just look at that

huge rip they had over the last decade

just looking at the NASDAQ 100 index

here back in 1985 was 125 by 1995 gone

up over 5x super stretched even Alan

Green span lots of media headlines

telling us how overvalued how bad things

are feds on the cusp are cutting rates

and sure all that makes sense have a

luck the old saying goes Bears sound

smart Bulls make money and the people

that are making money back then with the

momentum Traders with the trend

followers with the True Believers

whatever you want to call it cuz the

NASDAQ index went on to appreciate for

like I said another 5 years going from

that index level of 500 back in 1995 all

the way up to 4,800 now I'm not saying

this is definitely going to happen again

nobody knows exactly what's going to

happen I'm just saying it's possible

with this AI boom and who knows it could

even be bigger over the next 5 years

anything's possible in markets and

that's why we pay attention to price

action and Trends first and foremost

doesn't matter if it's a p of a th you

can still make money you're just

obviously mindful of that so when the

structure of the market does change you

see breadth deteriorate you see signs of

a big technical top the market goes

underneath its 200 day moving averages

and it's coming from a spot of

speculative Bubble Mania huge valuations

then yes you got to be more careful and

mindful of that because the draw downs

from that spot can be very harsh just

like we saw after NASDAQ Bubble Burst

from that March 200 High all the way

down to late 2002 NASDAQ retreated 83%

and even in that time big tech companies

like Amazon were growing their revenue

they dropped even more and that was a

long bear Market average bare Market

just a bit over a year around a year and

a half that went on for a couple of

years and sure there was a lot of money

lost in that period of time cuz a lot of

people had joined the party late when

they thought we're in a new paradigm so

this same pattern could very well play

out again in today's market but just

getting back to the here and now in

today's market up until about a couple

of months ago the main concern of the

market was inflation coming back that's

kind of subsided over the last couple of

months with the new fear being we're on

the cusp of a recession however looking

at the price action a lot of markets

except for fed fund Futures and

short-term bonds just really not acting

like we're on the cusp of a recession

just as corporate earnings and a lot of

other leading economic indicators are

not suggesting that either of course

things can quickly change however for

the Here and Now most things are holding

up pretty good and for sure we could be

doing a bull trap where markets have

ripped up to new alltime highs like we

were coming into July they pull back and

then we're bouncing and you can pretty

much see that pattern on the chart S&P

500 however if we break out to new

all-time highs which I think would

surprise a lot of people that would kind

of negate that pattern and plus the

long-term Trend just hasn't even been

broken either we're also starting to see

some optimism and enthusiasm come back

into the market where good news is good

again and stocks with a hot story are

ripping up we saw that today with a

space mobile ripping up over 50% as

their inaugural launch approaches said

after the Bell that its first five

commercial satellites are on track to

launch next month and serve as the

largest ever Communications arrays to be

deployed commercially in low or orbit

and this is their website here they're

kind of similar to starlink and that

they use satellites but starlink

provides complete like internet coverage

from satellites where they use them in a

more lower orbit as kind of like space

Tower communicate with mobile networks

they're looking to provide coverage all

across the globe just like Starling

especially in hard to- reach places so

it's definitely a cool story with plenty

of potential space is definitely an area

I'm interested in investing as a

long-term secular Trend along with

others like clean energy cannabis AI

synthetic biology just to name a few and

like I was saying the market just got

super excited by IT company doesn't even

really have any Revenue yet but look at

the tear it's been on this year having

started trading at $5 here we are after

hours as I speak $32 on this monster

candle today 75 million shares traded

not typically the type of moves and

stocks you see in a bare market and so

we're getting large hedge fund managers

having reported their latest moves for

the second quarter this week with their

form 13 FS getting a few more come in

after I showed you guys a bunch

yesterday seen a few of them pull out of

tech stocks some getting into Nike and

we've seen others like Paul singer

Elliot management a new 6 million share

stake in Southwest Airlines he also been

doubling down in ETD and Liberty

Broadband however what's interesting

just looking at Bank of America's Global

fund manager survey fund managers are

still really defensively positioned here

we can see that that they're overweight

bonds utilities healthare telecoms and

Staples and they're underweight rats

energy discretionary Industrials and

Tech so a lot of fund managers still

defensively positioned here like they

expect a recession even though CEOs that

run these companies are not really

expecting the same thing we got another

taste of that today on the back of

Walmart's earning stock surging a new

alltime highs after they said Us sales

Rose 4.2% year-over-year in the most

recent quarter well ahead of Wall Street

expectations of 3.5% also boosted its

forecast for fouryear sales growth to

3.75 to 4.75 up from 3 to 4 UBS retail

analyst saying Walmart is on its own

path this is less about what is

happening with the overall consumer

environment because it has been

challenging and more about Walmart so

they're saying they're a bit of an

outlier we did get weaker than expected

results from McDonald's Home Depot and

Disney but the CEO did say he's seen no

significant change in consumer spending

Trends so both core and higher income

customers continue to shop at Walmart

also interesting today thought I'd share

with you guys is what the CEO Doug

McMillan said about AI that they're

finding tangible ways to leverage

generative AI to improve the customer

member and Associate experience they're

using multiple large language models to

accurately create or improve over 850

million pieces of data in the catalog

without the use of generative AI this

work would have required nearly 100

times the current head count to complete

in the same amount of time so that's a

real material saving and productivity

boost for a non-tech company like

Walmart and so generative AI will

eventually touch every industry and

business out there to improve

productivity and efficiencies and so

this AI boom is really not going

anywhere if anything think is

accelerating and the US and tech stocks

stand to continue benefiting from that

the most and it'll spill out from other

areas from the actual Hardware being

produced into more software companies

and consumer facing apps and the back

end of businesses just like hearing

Walmart CEO report again the market was

pretty pleased with the results after it

was only a real modest beat on EPS they

like the guidance stock up 6 a half%

brand new all-time high and you know

it's election season when we've got a

new Global Health Emergency just kidding

guys but we did have the World Health

Organization just to clear a monkey pox

Global Health Emergency got some health

and vaccine stocks spiking up after the

news this is on the back of an outbreak

of the viral infection from the

Democratic Republic of Congo spread to

neighboring countries monkey is atic

disease that spreads from animals to

humans with flu likee symptoms and pus

filled lesions on the body usually mild

it can be fatal and rare cases I don't

think we're going back into Co I think

the World Health Organization after

being heavily criticized last time for

playing it down initially siding with

China I think they're a little more

sensitive and getting ahead of the curve

this time so I don't think it's a real

material risk what the Market's paying

way more attention to is the surge in

retail sales increasing 1% in July well

ahead of expectations of a 0.3 3% on an

annual basis sales Rose 2.7% junees

retail sales were revised to a 0.2%

decrease motor vehicles and parts saw

the biggest increase 3.6% and this just

came in really nicely in tandem with

Walmart's results and just helping to

lower some fears about the US economy

and consumer however it's not all that

great when you look at the long-term

average is actually 4.63% and when you

adjust it for inflation still came in

negative territory down 36% still got

inflation slightly above with those

growth and retail sales coming so the

consumers still not great just not in

dire situation at the moment and we saw

that with weekly jobless claims falling

economists were expecting 233,000 people

to file for jobless claims last week

came in 227,000 down from 234 the

previous week so that's another good

sign for the jobs Market however we saw

industrial production coming bit lower

than expectations that caused Goldman

Sachs to lower their GDP tracking for Q3

to an annualized rate of 2.4% still

pretty healthy well away from the

negative reading it would have to be if

we're already in a recession so the fact

is the US economy is still strong still

mostly employed consumers are still

spending and we're just not seeing

things fall off a cliff like a lot of

people were shouting and screaming last

Monday and those of that were out there

crying for an emergency rate cut so you

have a bit of egg on their face today as

that's starting to look more and more

like a bit of a joke and we've still got

inflation coming down we saw that with

import prices easing price of goods

coming into the economy only Rising a

low 1.6% in the 12 months ended in July

so the bond market kind of repricing all

this the yields jumping again today kind

of calming down a bit so they're still

really hanging their hat on the jobs

report we'll get in a couple of weeks

start of September also the rhetoric we

get from J pal and Jackson Hall next

Thursday and Friday as well play a key

role but we've even got one of the

biggest Bond traders in the world Pimco

saying they don't see a recession

despite that big bond market signal the

10-year 2-year still looked to being on

a path to un inverting however could

surprise us all and go back to in

inverted and continue this record long

inversion which would keep pushing out

the date of an expected recession and

looks like fed fun futures starting to

agree with me again today big material

change in their pricing they're now

saying there's a 3/4 chance the FED will

only cut 25 basis points in September

which as you guys know I've been calling

for for about 3 months now and I'd put

it at more chance they'll stay on hold

than they'll cut 50 basis points there's

no real immediate signs of pain in the

economy jobs report comes in better than

expected who knows they may stay on hold

till after the election but I still

think probably 70% chance they'll cut 25

basis points and I'd pretty much put the

other 30% that they'll stay on hold I

don't think they're going to go 50 basis

points stocks ripping up to new all-time

highs retail sales growing if

unemployment came in at 43 or 42 I mean

what's the justification to go 50 basis

points we'd have to see some real

deteriorating signs popping up soon for

that to be justified what's also good

for inflation is a very tame price of

crude oil along with most other

Commodities as well trading pretty weak

these last couple of months to get a

little bounce today doesn't seem really

worried at all about what's going on in

the Middle East probably more worried

about demand from us consumers and China

that's what's going on and Israel and

Iran's kind of taking a back seat kind

of all expecting a response from Iran by

now looks like they're not quite sure

what to do or they're building up for

something bigger Israel just dealt them

a huge Cyber attack yesterday on their

Central Bank froze their whole banking

system what looks like bit of a

preemptive attack maybe trying to Edge

them on into doing something however

their so-called supreme leader has

warned of divine wrath if Iran backs

down against Israel so they must show a

response it's just how big a response do

they give looks like they're still

unsure about have it when it comes to

War One the biggest advantages you can

have is the element of surprise for

which they have zero Israel along with

the West sitting right there at their

doorstep ready to respond the next

Second and there's a look at the price

action in crude oil just peeling back a

bit from its 50-day and gold still

hanging around all-time high even though

that jump in retail sales and soft

jobless claims showing some signs in the

US economy along with the jump up in the

bond yields could have been a reason for

gold to pull back it's still hovering up

here which I think just pricing in some

geopolitical risk also out news today is

the world's biggest steel maker warning

of a looming industry crisis that were

outpace 2008's downturn saw some really

sharp Falls and commodities back then

they were ripping going into early 08

late 07 commodity markets Emerging

Markets had a huge bull run back then

having the rebound in the Chinese

economy coming in lower than expected

construction starts falling still got a

lot of excess capacity in real estate

and that's showing up and excess steel

supplies likely to keep them overhead

pressure and iron or and other related

markets as well contrasting that as

China's importing record amount of

silver along with buying up gold taking

a sharp like Precious medals silver has

been lagging behind gold recently

however it outperformed today slapping

on almost 3% creeping back towards the

50-day vwap still holding a nice uptrend

from the start of the year but just

going out to a long-term monthly chart

on Silver Futures still well off the

highs in 2011 got up to almost $50 an

ounce so still quite a lot of catching

up to do and it's moving over to bitcoin

which is been weak last couple of weeks

correlated with the apparent rise in

Camala Harris's popularity part of the

Trump trade been unwar on small caps and

Bitcoin some mainstream media polls

showing Harris out in the lead however

if if Trump wins that could cause a big

rip in Bitcoin when the market as him

along with his VP JD Vance both Pro

crypto Bitcoin now so as Wall Street

heavyweight gobin Sachs making its debut

into the spot Bitcoin ETF Market in the

second quarter purchasing almost half a

billion worth of bitcoin funds saw that

in their latest 13f we don't know if

they got into ethereum they just hit the

market last month so we won't know until

the third quarter 30 FS are filed and

and this was on the back of news from

last week Morgan Stanley allowing their

15,000 advisers to recommend Bitcoin

ETFs to their High net worth client so

every month we get more and more Wall

Street accepting crypto and investing in

it should give it a structural Tailwind

especially like I said if the market

starts pricing in a trump Vance White

House which we'll know in about 2 and a

half months there's a look at the price

action in Bitcoin falling back there a

bit today my guess is the Biden

Administration has already started off

floating some of their confiscated

Bitcoin and may use that as a bit of a

lever as well if it starts ring as I

don't think they want it raing going

into the election as that'll favor their

opposition more so they do have a bit of

Leverage here however it looks like Wall

Street is happy to come in there and

scoop them up so we'll still be looking

for this big 50,000 support level to

hold over the coming weeks and I thought

I'd share with you guys today an

interesting chart from all the way back

in 1885 before I talk about the

technical analysis patterns some of you

may already know your stock market

history the railroad era probably one of

the greatest if not the greatest bull

markets and Booms out there probably the

real first secular Trend in stock

markets it were still pretty young New

York Stock Exchange was officially

launched 1792 under the Buttonwood tree

then in the 1800s all the Industrial

Revolution railroads a big part of that

been able to move Goods all across the

country opened up new markets a lot of

new entrepreneurs and so the railroad

boom went from the 1830s all the way up

to the late 1880s kind of picked out in

the Panic of 1893 a lot of them went

bust over leverage over capacity too

much speculation etc etc so it went on

for almost 70 years that big boom

secular Trend in railroads and it's sort

of interesting to share with you guys

this chart one of the Big Railroad

stocks back then Richmond and Danville

chart starts here in June 1882 goes all

the way to December 1886 it's a weekly

chart a little spotty however you see

similar patterns that we still see to

this day you see breakups on volume then

the price consolidates coils on low

volume breaks up again on high volume

consolidates on low volume then rinses

and repeats the same pattern you see the

same thing to this day 140 years later

principles of price action technical

analysis don't change it's not a perfect

science just the best way to visualize

demand and Supply in the market and this

is a logarithmic chart so look at that

move off the low of $32 in September

1884 2 years later it's ripping up to

160 they had their huge moves bull

markets all that stuff back then it's

nothing new and I have no doubt in 140

years from now it'll still be the same

as long as humans can buy and sell

stocks there'll always be fear and perod

and Trend in financial Market that you

just don't simply see in a random string

of data and just getting back into the

charts here's a 5day relative sector

performance see Tech Head and Shoulders

leading this bounce back here along with

consumer discretionary down the bottom

rats energy and utility especially today

a real risk-on growth move out there and

like I said just look at that market

color a wash with green truly impressive

this bounce back but even more

impressive surprising a lot of us

absolute Crush in the vix volatility if

you are worried about volatility around

the corner one thing for sure it's a lot

better to buy it when the vix is at 15

versus 65 and just like I showed you

guys last Friday on the weekly charts of

e mini Futures these big hammer candle

formations just look to be playing out

as the textbooks describe them and that

looks to especially be the case in the

Nicki 225 Japanese stocks huge Spike

down massive buy the dip same with Euro

stocks and even a little bit with

Chinese stocks so wouldn't you not we're

only 120 points away from all-time highs

on the S&P 500 cash index and just

reclaimed that advancing trend line I've

had drawn in there and like I've been

saying that Peak a negative sediment

people pile into put options just set up

a big max pain trade higher here however

it could all come tumbling down if J pal

indicates to us next week in Jackson

Hall that he may think about holding

rates I don't think the stock market

would like that otherwise the economy

corporate profits all continuing to grow

price action breadth volatility bond

market dollar and even Global Bret all

indicate risk on Canada's TSX UK footsie

German Dax back above the 50 and the

Aussie 00 as well we've got some Global

Equity breath going on here that wraps

up the daily market review for this

bullish Thursday we'll see what the last

day of the week brings us and I'll break

it all down again for you guys thanks

very much for all your support and I'll

see you then cheers