Can the "Dow Theory" Predict the Market Reversals?
Summary
TLDRThis video script discusses the evolution of trading as a career, noting the challenges of market volatility and the unpredictability of returns. It emphasizes the importance of long-term investment in quality stocks, citing examples of significant returns from companies like Bajaj Finance and NTPC. The script introduces Dow Theory, explaining uptrends, downtrends, and sideways trends to identify market direction. It simplifies the theory into an 'one-two-three' pattern for recognizing trend reversals, advocating for a disciplined approach to trading with risk management and backtesting strategies before live implementation.
Takeaways
- 😀 Full-time trading is no longer recommended by experienced traders due to the changing market dimensions and frequent rule changes.
- 🤔 Diversifying investments in good stocks for the long run can yield significant returns, as demonstrated by examples like B, Oil India, and NTPC.
- 📈 Dow Theory, proposed by Charles Dow, is a fundamental concept for understanding market trends, including uptrends, downtrends, and sideways trends.
- 🔄 In an uptrend, prices make higher highs and higher lows; in a downtrend, they make lower highs and lower lows; and in a sideways trend, prices oscillate around similar levels.
- 🚗 The script uses the analogy of a car's indicators to explain that a single sign (like a lower high in an uptrend) is not enough to confirm a trend reversal.
- 📊 The 'one-two-three' pattern is a method to identify the end of an uptrend or the beginning of a downtrend, involving specific formations of highs and lows.
- 🛑 A single lower high or lower low is not sufficient to declare the end of an uptrend; it requires a sequence of patterns for confirmation.
- ✅ The 'one-two-three' pattern for uptrend termination includes a lower high, a lower low, and a break of the lower low level.
- ↗️ Conversely, the end of a downtrend can be identified by a higher low, a higher high, and a break above the higher high level.
- 💡 Dow Theory is not only applicable to long-term investment strategies but can also be used in lower time frames, though it may introduce noise that requires careful risk management.
- 💰 Risk management is crucial; traders should not risk more than 2-3% of their capital per trade and should trail their stop-loss orders to lock in profits.
Q & A
Why do many experienced traders no longer recommend full-time trading as a career option?
-The market dimensions have changed significantly, with frequent rule changes making it difficult to generate consistent good returns. A single bad day can wipe out an entire capital, which makes full-time trading risky.
What alternative approach to trading is suggested in the script for those who wish to earn good returns on their capital?
-Investing in good stocks for the long run while continuing with a day job or business is suggested. The script provides examples of companies like B, Oil India, and NTPC that have generated significant returns since 2023.
What is the basic premise of Dow Theory as explained in the script?
-Dow Theory, proposed by Charles Dow, suggests that price can move in three trends: uptrend, downtrend, and sideways trend. The theory is used to study these variations and understand market behavior.
How does the script define an uptrend in the context of Dow Theory?
-An uptrend is defined by the price making higher lows and higher highs successively, indicating an overall upward movement in price.
What does the script suggest for identifying the end of an uptrend?
-The script suggests using a 'one-two-three' pattern: 1) the price makes a lower high, 2) it then makes a lower low, and 3) finally, it breaks the lower low level, indicating the end of the uptrend.
How can one identify the beginning of an uptrend or the end of a downtrend according to the script?
-The script recommends looking for a 'one-two-three' pattern in reverse for a downtrend: 1) the price makes a higher low, 2) it then makes a higher high, and 3) it breaks above the higher high, signaling the end of the downtrend and potentially the start of an uptrend.
What is the significance of the 'one-two-three' pattern in trading according to the script?
-The 'one-two-three' pattern is a key tool for identifying trend reversals. It provides a systematic approach to recognize when an uptrend or downtrend might be ending, allowing traders to make informed decisions about entering or exiting trades.
Why is it important to backtest trading strategies before implementing them in a live market?
-Backtesting provides traders with confidence and conviction in their strategies by allowing them to see how the strategy would have performed historically. It helps in understanding the strategy's effectiveness and potential risks before real money is involved.
What is the recommended risk management strategy when using Dow Theory for long-term investments?
-The script suggests not risking more than 2 to 3% of one's capital per trade. Additionally, it recommends trailing the stop loss below the low of every swing low as the trade moves in a profitable direction.
How can Dow Theory be applied to different time frames in trading?
-Dow Theory can be used in lower time frames, but it's more beneficial for long-term investments on daily and weekly charts. When used in lower time frames, traders should have a mechanism for risk management to deal with market noise.
What is the role of common sense in applying Dow Theory to trading?
-Common sense plays a crucial role in interpreting the signals given by Dow Theory. It helps traders to not jump to conclusions based on a single signal but to look for a series of confirming signs before making trading decisions.
Outlines
📊 Changing Perceptions in Stock Trading Careers
The script begins by discussing the shift in the trading industry where full-time trading is no longer recommended by experienced traders due to volatile market conditions and frequent regulatory changes. It emphasizes the importance of long-term investment in quality stocks for steady returns, citing examples of companies like B, Oil India, and NTPC that have shown significant returns since 2023. The speaker introduces the concept of Dow Theory, proposed by Charles Dow, to understand market trends and suggests that this theory can be simplified for anyone to pick good stocks for long-term investment.
📈 Understanding Market Trends with Dow Theory
This paragraph explains the basics of Dow Theory, which identifies three types of market trends: uptrend, downtrend, and sideways trend. It describes how to identify these trends by observing the price movements and making higher highs and lows in an uptrend, lower highs and lows in a downtrend, and similar highs and lows in a sideways trend. The speaker uses examples from Titan and Bajaj Finance to illustrate uptrend patterns and Nifty and AD Enterprises for downtrend patterns, emphasizing the importance of recognizing these patterns for effective trading decisions.
🚗 Applying Common Sense to Market Indicators
The speaker compares market indicators to driving behaviors, suggesting that just like a car's turn signal doesn't always predict the exact direction, a single lower high or low in a price trend doesn't necessarily indicate a trend reversal. The paragraph introduces the 'one-two-three' pattern as a method to identify the end of an uptrend, which includes a lower high, a lower low, and a break below the previous low. This pattern is illustrated with examples from Tata Steel and Sun Pharma, highlighting the importance of not assuming a trend change based on a single indicator.
📉 Identifying the End of Downtrend for Entry Points
Continuing the explanation of the 'one-two-three' pattern, this paragraph focuses on identifying the end of a downtrend, which can signal a potential entry point for a new uptrend. The pattern involves a higher low, a higher high, and a breakout above the previous high. Examples from ACC and JSW Steel are used to demonstrate this pattern, showing how these formations can indicate a potential reversal of the market trend and provide opportunities for traders to enter the market.
🚀 Dow Theory for Long-Term Trading and Risk Management
The speaker discusses the applicability of Dow Theory for long-term trading and investment, emphasizing its value in understanding market behavior on daily and weekly charts. They stress the importance of risk management, suggesting that traders should not risk more than 2-3% of their capital per trade. The paragraph also touches on the concept of trailing stop losses to secure profits and the necessity of backtesting trading strategies to gain confidence before implementing them in live markets.
📝 The Importance of Backtesting Trading Strategies
In the final paragraph, the speaker underscores the critical role of backtesting trading strategies against historical data to build confidence and conviction in a trading system. They mention that without backtesting, traders may lack the necessary assurance to follow a strategy consistently, especially when faced with market noise and unpredictable movements. The paragraph concludes with a reminder to backtest strategies on at least 100 charts to ensure a solid foundation before live trading.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Full-time trading
💡Market Dimensions
💡Dow Theory
💡Uptrend
💡Downtrend
💡Sideways Trend
💡Swing High/Low
💡Risk Management
💡Stop-Loss
💡Backtesting
💡Long-term Investment
Highlights
Quitting a day job to trade full-time is no longer recommended by experienced traders due to the volatile nature of the market.
Market dimensions have significantly changed, with frequent rule alterations making it difficult to generate consistent monthly returns.
A single market spike can potentially erase an investor's entire capital, emphasizing the risks of full-time trading.
Investing in good stocks for the long term while maintaining a day job or business is suggested as a safer approach.
Examples of significant returns from B, Oil India, and NTPC since 2023 demonstrate the potential of long-term stock investments.
Diversifying capital in stocks like B, Oil India, and NTPC can mitigate the risks associated with market volatility.
The video aims to simplify the complex Dow Theory for long-term stock investment selection.
Dow Theory, proposed by Charles Dow, is explained through the lens of uptrend, downtrend, and sideways trend analysis.
In an uptrend, the price movement is characterized by a series of higher lows and higher highs.
Holding stocks that display an uptrend pattern can lead to significant profits as the price may rise substantially.
The one-two-three pattern is introduced as a method to identify the end of an uptrend for exiting trades.
A single lower high or low is not sufficient to conclude the end of an uptrend; a series of patterns is necessary.
The end of an uptrend is confirmed by a break below the lower low level in the one-two-three pattern.
Similarly, the end of a downtrend is identified by a higher low, higher high, and a break above the higher high level.
Dow Theory can be applied to various time frames, but its insights are particularly valuable for long-term investment strategies.
Risk management is crucial when using Dow Theory, especially when trading in lower time frames to avoid market noise.
Backtesting trading strategies is essential for gaining confidence and conviction before implementing them in live markets.
The importance of not risking more than 2-3% of capital per trade is emphasized for financial safety.
Trailing stop-loss orders are recommended for safe traders to capture the entire move of a trend.
Conservative traders can use trailing stop losses to exit trades closer to the top of a trend.
Transcripts
a few years back quitting the day job
and trading full-time was the dream of
many youngstar but now ask all the
experienced Traders none of them suggest
full-time trading as a career option
because Market Dimensions has changed a
lot there are changes in rules very
frequently difficult to generate good
returns every month and one Spike on a
bad day can wipe out your entire C
Capital does it mean everybody should
quit the stock market need not be one
can continue with their day job or
business and also earn good Returns on
their Capital if they invest in good
stocks for the long run look at some of
these examples B has generated 224 per
returns since
2023 oil India has generated 196 %
return since
2023 ntpc has generated 110% return
since
2023 if you diversify your capital on
similar stocks like this you don't have
to worry about spikes Big Falls cap up
or gap down open on daily charts level
then how to find good stocks for the
long-term investment in this video I
will break down a complex Theory into a
simple modules and anybody can
understand how to pick good stocks for
the long-term investment so without
wasting much time let's
[Music]
start friends take any Market cash
Market or commodity Market or Forex
market price can move in upside
direction or downside direction or
sideways direction right any Market can
should move in any one of these
Direction
from these three Direction any Market
will not go in any other direction right
now the thing is let's say it's going
upside the thing is price will not go
upside in a single straight line right
it will give small pullback and go up
small pull back and then go up it give
small pull back and go up while going
down also it give a small bounce and
then it goes down it give a small bounce
and then goes down right so we can study
all these variations using doubt Theory
okay this is very simpler and effective
manner to study these variations using
doubt Theory so dou the is proposed by
Charles da basically he wrote series of
articles in his journal Wall Street
Journal and explain doubt theory in many
articles in this video I'm trying to
explain the entire doubt theory in
simpler and effective manner as much as
possible so according to Charles da
price can move in three Trends you know
uptrend downtrend and sideways Trend now
let's study one by one in detail okay so
number one is uptrend let's say the
price has started its movement from here
so this is the swing low and this is the
swing high this is the starting swing
low and this is the starting swing high
right now when price starts moving okay
it makes an High higher low okay as
compared to the previous swing low the
original swing low it makes an higher
low right then it makes an higher high
as compared to the previous uh the
starting swing High it makes an higher
high right so in an uptrend price keeps
on making higher low higher high higher
low higher I higher low higher I so in
another words when the price keeps on
making higher high and higher low we can
say that the price is in a uptrend now
let's say you are holding some stocks in
your portfolio if one of the stock is
displaying this pattern it indicates it
is in a uptrend and you should try to or
you should aim to carry that particular
stock because you never know where the
price will go right so starting from 100
it can go to 1,000 to 2,000 3,000 so
there is a possibility so until price
displays this characteristics higher low
higher high higher low higher high You
can conclude that that particular stock
is in in an strong uptrend and you
should try to write the profits as much
as possible okay now this is an example
of uptrend in Titan monthly chart okay
let's say this is the starting point and
this is the starting swing low and this
is the starting swing high right now
compared to the starting swing low this
is a higher low right then compared to
the starting swing high this is a higher
high right see price kept on making
higher low higher high higher low higher
high higher low higher high which means
it is in a strong uptrend if you are
holding this stock means you should try
to write the profits as much as possible
okay so this is an one example so one
more example is baj finance weekly chart
okay so this is also in an strong
uptrend now see compared to the starting
swing low it kept on making higher low
higher high higher low higher high
higher low higher high right so it is in
a strong uptrend once again if you have
any you know these kind of stocks in
your portfolio which are displaying
higher low higher high formation
you should try to hold that particular
strock and try to write the profits as
much as possible now downtrend okay I of
up trend is clear right higher low
higher I higher low higher high higher
low higher high now downtrend so in
downtrend what happens is let's say this
is the starting point just for
explanation sake now this is the swing
high right and this is the swing low in
downtrend what happens is compared to
the previous swing High it makes an
lower high right this is a lower high
now compared to the previous swing low
it makes a lower low okay lower it made
a lower high it made a lower low so in
downtrend price keeps on making lower
high lower low lower high lower low in
another words if the price is making
lower high and lower low we can conclude
that it is in a downtrend
now let's say you have a stock in your
portfolio which is displaying this
particular pattern lower high lower low
lower high lower low formation do you
think is it a good idea to hold the
stock comment below let's see whether
you understood the concept or not there
is a stock in your portfolio it
displaying lower high lower low lower
high lower low pattern and is it a good
idea to hold this particular stock in
your portfolio just comment below let's
see whether you understood this or not
now I will take an example so this is
Nifty weekly chart so this is the you
can see right compared to the previous
swing High it made a lower high lower
low lower high lower low lower high and
lower low right so it is a perfect
example of our downtrend this is one
more example ad Enterprises weekly chart
again compared to the starting swing
High it is a lower high again compared
to the starting low uh swing low it is a
lower low right it kept on making lower
high lower low lower high lower low so
it is in a strong downtrend right now
high up downtrend is also clear uptrend
higher low higher high higher low higher
high downtrend lower high lower low
lower high lower low now in Side West
Trend this is the third Trend ins Side
West Trend what happens is price you
know this is a high this is a low what
happens is price will keep on making the
same highs same lows same highs and same
lows okay now don't assume you know or
don't think that it should make the
proper swing High same high same for
example if the th000 is the high don't
assume exactly at th000 it will turn
back okay small very little deviation is
okay so because in Market is there is no
100% accurate right so but just an
example approximately if it going like
this then it is in a sideways Trend so
this is an example for a sideways Trend
chart so in vrl it is in a sideways
Trend in the this particular time period
right it kept on making similar highs
and similar lows this is perfect example
for a sideways Trend chart now let's say
you are driving a car in a road one car
is driving or going ahead of you and the
right indicator is on in that particular
car now do you think that car will take
you turn only think for a
moment now the thing is is if the if
there is a car going ahead of you if the
right indicator is on the car can take
uter there is a possibility there is no
doubt about it but one more possibility
is car can take right turn also right
you know there is second possibility now
there is a third possibility car can go
straight as well because some stupid
drivers have less consciousness about
their indicators they will switch on the
right indicator they will drive straight
they will switch on the left indicator
they will keep on driving straight right
there is a possibility actually now we
should apply this Common Sense how do
you see for example when I'm driving a
car if the indicator is on no straight
away we we unconsciously we do this so
even if the indicator is on straight
away we don't assume he will take a
U-turn right or he will take a right
turn we will see whether that know wheel
is turning whether the body of the car
is turning in the direction if the body
is turning in the direction it gives a
confirmation that definitely he will
take a either right turn or U-turn right
so that's what we do as a experienced
drivers so we should know take the
essence or lesson from this experience
we should try to apply in price chart as
well now when the price is in a strong
uptrend if the price makes it this is
uptrend chart chart right when the price
makes
lower high this is a previous Wing high
this is a lower high so when the price
makes a lower high don't assume never
ever assume price will begin with a
downtrend recall the car example it can
take down uturn which means it can go
downtrend it can take right turn which
means it can go into sideways mode the
price can get into sideways mode or it
can go straight as well so there is a
possibility of price going straight as
well in an uptrend so the formation of
one lower high is not sufficient enough
to declare end of uptrend I will repeat
once again friends the formation of one
lower high or one lower low is not
sufficient enough to declare the uptrend
is over then this is an example this you
know don't trust my words I always say
this uh don't trust or believe whatever
ever I'm going to say because you always
back test the concept you verify that
concept on a chart then only you can
believe it right so this is an example
see the in this particular mode the
price is in a strong uptrend do you
agree with this this is one part and now
it made an lower high right it made a
lower high but still it's a proper lower
high right and still price went upside
right so this is the perfect example of
what I'm going to explain okay what I
explained in the previous slide now your
question is then Indra you are saying I
know lower higher low higher high higher
lower low formation is a formation of
uptrend characteristics of a uptrend
then how do you identify the end of
uptrend let's say I wanted to exit my
stock at the top then how do I you know
identify end end of uptrend friends one
honest admission nobody can exit uh you
know at the top let's say a stock went
from 100 to, rupees nobody can exit at,
rupees okay this is very true actually
so only two people can exit at the top
know one is God another one is liar so
nobody can exit at, but we should try to
identify a close point which is very
close to the top actually so in the
previous slide I saw one lower I
formation is not sufficient for the exit
now you have a confusion right then how
do we identify a close point which is is
very close to the uh top actually now it
is using uh simple concept one 2 three
pattern how to identify end of uptrend
let's say you have a a lot of stocks in
your portfolio how do you identify end
of uptrend for those particular stocks
whether to carry it or not the pattern
is very simple friends it is one two
three pattern okay let's say the price
is in a strong uptrend number one
pattern is it makes a lower high
formation the price is in a strong
uptrend it makes a lower high formation
that is number one second pattern is it
makes a lower low formation second
pattern is it makes a lower low
formation third pattern is price breaks
the lower low level okay when the price
breaks the lower low level you can
conclude that it is end of uptrend okay
I'll repeat once again friends and the
price is in a strong uptrend first it
should form a lower high formation it is
an indication like an right turn
indicator in a car so it is a warning
symbol definitely we should be conscious
and careful about it formation of lower
low which means tire is also turning
towards you know that side
second warning third warning is break of
lower which means car completely turned
this side so this indicates uptrend is
over right this is a common sense we
should apply the same Common Sense via 1
two three pattern to exit our stocks at
the up in an up I mean when the uptrend
is over actually okay so again don't
believe my words you can see yourself in
the chart this is an example of Tata
steel daily chart okay the price is in a
strong uptrend do you agree with this
now price made a lower high right
pattern one formation price made lower
high next price made lower low okay
price made lower low right it is very
clear price made a lower low pattern two
next price broke that level right price
break the lower low level right so that
is pattern three completion okay so this
indicates uptrend is over so if you are
carrying any stocks if the stocks
displayed this one two 3 pattern lower
high formation lower low formation and
price also broke the lower low indicates
end of uptrend you should close that
particular stock as much as possible
because you never know when the price I
mean how much fall the stock will
witness so it it indicates the One 2
three pattern formation lower high lower
low and break of that level indicates
something is going in wrong with that
particular stock you have to exit If You
observe the chart very carefully after
the break of that level the same level
acted as resistance two three times
right so that level is very very crucial
okay this is end of uptrend see when you
see a danger you should always exit Okay
so if you can't see a danger after some
time you can always above that
particular stock right you can always
buy back but once you see the end of
uptrend it is better better better to
exit that particular stock so this is
one more example sunfa again it is a
weekly chart see here from here to here
the price is in a strong uptrend do you
agree with this next at the top it made
lower high number one pattern it made
lower high next it made lower low number
second pattern it made lower low right
Next price broke that level pattern
three formation right price broke that
level so it indicates end of uptrend so
if you're carrying any stock which
displayed this particular pattern means
you need to close the trade again here
you know it acted as a resistance once
the price broke that level right now you
can say Indra end of uptrend
identification is good uh we have
learned it but to exit at the end of
uptrend we should be already in trade
rate you should always should already
carrying some stocks to exit at the top
end of up right then how to identify
those stocks or how to identify end of
downtrend so that you participate in
that particular stock and you
participate in the rally and to write
the profits once again the logic is very
simple friends the same one two three
pattern but on the mirror side okay I'll
explain in a simple manner let's assume
a particular stock is in a downtrend
first it should make higher low first it
should make higher low this is this
completes pattern one formation next it
should make higher high this is pattern
two it should make higher high then the
price should break the higher high this
conf forms pattern three so first
pattern higher low formation this is a
warning symbol which means something is
going wrong second is higher ey
formation it indicates it it is
confirmation three is breaking so the
break of higher high indicates it is
going upside right so this indicates end
of downtrend so downtrend is over or you
can also conclude it is the beginning of
uptrend once the price display this
particular characteristics you can take
an entry so this is an example of a ACC
weekly chart you can see here the price
is in a strong downtrend right so it is
in a downtrend here it made you know
higher low so this is pattern one
formation it made higher high R this is
pattern two formation once the price
broke that level this is pattern three
formation right which indicates end of
downtrend or the beginning of uptrend so
entry your entry should come when the
price breaks and closes above the higher
high level that should be your entry
point and your stop loss should be the
starting swing low okay that should be
your starting swing low now you might
think or you know you might get a doubt
in your mind that the stop- loss is very
wide in this particular case it happens
friends dou here is especially designed
for in investment to hold your stocks
for more duration if you have the
mindset capability to hold your stocks
for more than 6 months or one year then
only you should use dou theory in Daily
charts or in weekly charts okay so your
entry should come at or above the higher
high level when the price breaks above
the higher high your entry should come
and when the your stop loss should be
below the low of the starting swing low
okay this is one thing we'll see one
more example this is jsw steel daily
chart so this is in a strong downtrend
right again see here the price made a
higher low right the price made a higher
low pattern one
formation next it made a higher high
formation right this is pattern two it
made a higher high this is pattern two
next price broke that level and the
price broke that level it indicates end
of downtrend are the beginning of
uptrend okay again you see here it acted
as a strong support there is a big
bullish engulfing candle which came at
the same level right so that level
becomes automatically very very crucial
so your entry should come above the high
higher high okay your entry should come
above whenever the candle closes above
the higher your entry should come and
your stop loss will be below the swing
low okay this is very simple this is a
rule actually now the simple conclusion
is see friends Dow Theory you can also
use Dow theory in lower time frames but
it give valuable insights to market
trends Behavior how the price is going
whether the price is going upside or
downside or sideways if the price is
making higher high higher low higher
high higher low means it is in a strong
uptrend if the price is making lower
high lower low lower high lower low
means it is in a strong downtrend if it
is making same high same low same high
same low means it is it is in a know
sideways Trend now you can also uh I
mean this D here is highly beneficial
for investment and long-term trading on
daily charts and weekly charts but you
can also use this in lower time frames
as well but you take any strategy
whenever you get into your lower time
frame there is a high possibility of
noise right so you should have a
mechanism and risk management money
management in place to beat that noise
that is very important so next you know
always don't more than 2 to 3% of your
Capital per trade okay what it means is
uh let's say you take a entry at the
break of higher high and your stop loss
is at the low of the Swing Low now if
the price comes back and takes your
stop- loss means you should not lose
more than 2 to 3% friends if you have 1
lakh rupees of capital if that happens
you should not lose more than 2 to 3%
that is the uh important Point that's
very very important actually now once
you take the position if you know it is
better to tral your stop- loss below
theow of every swing low for example
let's say you taken a trade uh earlier
your stop loss will be the low of the
starting swingler right price starts you
know moving upside with higher low
higher high higher low higher high right
then it is makes sense to trial your
stop loss below the low of every swing
low uh why because you know there are
two options safe traders who want to
write the entire move they can follow
the end of uptrend concept the one 12
three pattern formation to exit the
trade very conservative Traders you know
who want to exit at very safe point then
they can follow you know they can trial
their stop losses below the low of every
swing low in that way they can exit very
close to the top next always back test
the ideas before implementing in live
market so I always say this let's say
you have understood one trading concept
that doesn't mean that you know it is uh
went into your head and you know you
will be able to take trades based on
that particular strategy 100% why
because our mind is very complex system
actually it has a lot of ideas when you
don't back test a particular trading
strategy you don't get 100% conviction
and confidence in that particular system
so once you take a trade if there is a
you know some random movement your mind
will generat lots of IDE ideas hence you
will get a lot of confusion whether to
you know follow that particular strategy
or not in live market but in offline
Market when you back test a strategy
against at least minimum bare minimum
100 charts you will get you know little
confidence and conviction to use that
particular system
n
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