交易策略学习第4期🎉:2023年9月💯K到249K,震荡策略
Summary
TLDRThe speaker analyzes a complex forex trading strategy used by a trader from Zimbabwe which won an award. The core logic buys on reversal signals when CCI, MACD and Stochastics indicators align. It seems optimized for ranging markets. The speaker considers incorporating elements of this strategy to improve accuracy of his own system which focuses more on longer term trends.
Takeaways
- 😊 The video analyzes a trading strategy used by a trader from Zimbabwe that won an award
- 😲 The strategy uses hourly charts and is suitable for volatile market conditions
- 📈 It goes long when CCI <= -100, MACD > 0 and RSI <= 25
- 📉 It goes short with the opposite conditions: CCI >= 100, MACD < 0, RSI >= 75
- ⛔️ The entry logic seems strict, potential fewer trades
- 💹 The long side may have higher accuracy if filtered with 4H or daily trend
- 🎯 The strategy fit the volatile and ranging Sep 2023 market well
- 🤔 It can be a reference though may not apply always
- 😎 The risk management part is missing in the strategy description
- 👍 It helps expand my trading strategy perspective
Q & A
What trading strategy is the speaker reviewing in this video?
-The speaker is reviewing a reversal trend trading strategy used by a trader from Zimbabwe in September 2023 on EUR/USD and USD/JPY hourly charts.
What three indicators does the strategy use for entry signals?
-The strategy uses the CCI, MACD, and Stochastic Oscillator indicators for entry signals.
What are the entry rules for a long trade?
-Enter long when CCI <= -100, MACD > 0 and Stochastics <= 25.
What are the entry rules for a short trade?
-Enter short when CCI >= 100, MACD < 0 and Stochastics >= 75.
Why does the speaker think this strategy worked well in September 2023?
-Because there was a lot of range-bound price action and volatility that month, which this reversal strategy is suited for.
What refinements does the speaker suggest could improve the strategy?
-Using a higher timeframe trend filter to avoid trades against the overall trend.
What was the winner's reward for the competition?
-The winner made $149K on a $100K account in September 2023.
What was the drawdown percentage of the strategy?
-16.98% drawdown.
Why didn't the speaker review the Argentinian trader's strategy?
-Because it was too complex and opaque with lots of unnecessary code to obfuscate it.
What is the overall purpose of this video?
-To analyze and learn from successful trading strategies used in competitions.
Outlines
😊 Discussing Trend Reversal Trading Strategy
The first paragraph introduces an Argentinian trader's complex trend reversal strategy using multiple timeframes and indicators like CCI, MACD and RSI. However, the strategy is too obscure to explain clearly. Instead, the host will explain a simpler strategy used by a trader from Zimbabwe which identifies reversals using hourly charts.
📈 Explaining Hourly Reversal Strategy Logic
The second paragraph explains the Zimbabwe trader's strategy in detail. It identifies reversals on EUR/USD and USD/JPY hourly charts using CCI, MACD and RSI. Specifically, it longs when CCI ≤ -100, MACD > 0 and RSI ≤ 25 and shorts under opposite conditions, with fixed stop loss and take profit.
Mindmap
Keywords
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Highlights
Introduction to the 4th session of trading strategy learning.
Re-encounter with an old acquaintance from Argentina who is still active in trading competitions.
Comparison of prize winnings and participation between the narrator and the Argentinean trader.
The complexity of the Argentinean trader's strategy and its concealment through obfuscation.
Shift of focus to a simpler strategy by a trader from Zimbabwe.
Description of the Zimbabwean trader's strategy involving currency pairs EUR/USD and USD/JPY using CCI, MACD, and Stochastic indicators.
Detailed examination of the strategy's buy and sell conditions.
Analysis of the strategy's performance in September 2023 with a significant profit.
Application of the strategy to different currency pairs and its consistency.
Backtesting the strategy on September 30, 2023, to validate its effectiveness in fluctuating markets.
Discussion on the strategy's suitability for choppy market conditions.
Reflection on the personal learning and potential application of the discussed strategy.
Consideration of strategy adjustments to improve accuracy and manage risk.
Concluding remarks on the session and invitation for subscription.
Transcripts
今天来讲交易策略学习第4期
本来呢,看到了一个老熟人
这个阿根廷的兄弟
他这个账号
我在玩那个dukascopy的时候啊
就经常看到他
没想到他还在继续玩
而且确实玩的次数比我多
然后我这个prize
我总共获得的是2万多美元
他获得了4万美元
就说我获得了14次名次
他估计有个二三十次了
但是呢,我看了他的策略
就觉得搞得太复杂
所以没法讲
他这个实际上隐藏的
整体的策略
应该不是那么复杂
但他把那个程序编得
嗯,用每一天来变换那个手数
大概就像那个加密
因为他必须要那个open source才能拿到(奖金)
像我们参加比赛
必须要open source才能拿到
35点的奖励分
如果他不open source的话
那基本上就得不了奖
但是他要open source呢
他又不想让大家看他的代码
所以他写了一大堆无关的代码
昨天我本来还看了一下
看到后来
实在是看不下去了
没什么特别吸引的地方
所以这个阿根廷的兄弟我就不讲了
先找到这个津巴布韦的兄弟
他的策略很简单
2023年9月份的时候
他这个也是获得了奖项
从100K到249K
drawdown是16.98%,
我就来读一读他这个策略
他在2023年9月份用的这个策略
应该是他2019年写的
但是他一直用到现在
我先看一下他的说明吧
打开这个翻译插件
这个策略是用在欧元兑美元或者美元兑日元的
用一小时图
CCI小于等于-100的时候
然后MACD大于0
随机指标小于25的时候
那就买入
然后卖出是相反
就CCI大于100
MACD小于0
随机指标大于75
看上去就是一个做反转趋势的打法
我来具体看一下他的程序
看它是不是这么编的
好,我来看他的程序
日线图是小时图
往下走
货币一个是欧元兑美元
一个是美元兑日元
CCI的
那就看两个货币的CCI
是小时图
然后14参数
一个是CCI12
这是欧元兑美元的
CCI14是美元兑日元的
然后这边是走的美元兑日元的逻辑
如果CCI小于等于100的话
然后MACD
它使用的默认的12、26和9的参数
这边程序有点不太简洁
MACD是一样的
MACD大于0的时候
然后再看随机指标
用533的参数
如果这个随机指标的值小于等于25
那就买入
这个是针对美元兑日元的
15手
这个打比赛的都是很猛的
风险度非常高
15手
滑点是5个点
基本上就有信号就能成交了
止损35
盈利8点
他就如果算上那个点差的话就是35
盈亏比是1:5
要达到80%以上的胜率才能有盈利
那这个是买入的逻辑
卖出逻辑是相反的
我再看看他的欧元对美元是不是同样的
欧元对美元的逻辑是一样的
都是CCI小于100
然后MACD大于0
随机指标小于等于25
就买入
卖出的时候就是CCI大于等于100
MACD小于0
随机指标大于等于75
就卖出
我来打开9月份的欧元兑美元的图
来对照一下
我来回溯到2023年9月30号
就从这根白线往右这段行情
这个策略比较适合震荡行情
CCI和随机指标都用的是14
MACD用的12、26、9
在这个CCI大于100的时候
然后随机指数大于75的时候
MACD假如是红的话
那就做空
成交的比数应该不是特别多
你这个要求还比较苛刻
这个做空
因为MACD一直在上方
所以它这个没有
就这个位置
CCI这个是小于-100
随机指数是小于25
然后MACD大于0
那这个就入场了
止损35点
盈利8点
像这个准确率
抄底的准确率在震荡行情中应该还是可以的
他这个策略呢
因为我不大采用这种震荡行情的策略
所以对我来说还是有一定帮助
可以参考一下
拓展一下我的思路
但没有做一些资金管理的方面
像这个
9月份对他这个策略来说
还是比较合适的
因为基本上都是震荡
这里震荡一下
就下跌
然后再震荡一下
都是在一个平台震荡蛮长时间的
然后在一个短暂的调整
来看看美元对日元是不是也是这样
于是
9月1号
美元对日元这一段时间也是类似的
所以他的一段时间的绩效还不错
震荡
大部分时间都是在震荡的情况下
那这个策略应该表现还可以
然后这可以参考一下这个
因为大多数情况
我们都是在震荡走势中
如果用一小时的震荡走势
来以这种方式来入场
但是就是预定
然后用4小时或者天图趋势
滤掉反向的趋势
像这个我像这种
如果天图肯定是做多的
只会做多
有滤掉那个空头的
这样的话就说
CCI和随机指标
两个震荡指标都处于低位的时候
MACD反向了
才入场
这样能提高一下这个准确率
这样的话我如果只做多
可能准确率会更高一些
好,今天这个交易策略学习第四期
我就讲到这里
谢谢大家
欢迎订阅
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