Step by Step Averaging Down Saham Saat Harganya Lagi Turun yang Bikin Cuan Optimal
Summary
TLDRIn this video, Surya discusses the recent trend of foreign investors selling nearly Rp5 trillion worth of Indonesian stocks, causing the rupiah to weaken. He explains how this situation presents an opportunity for investors to average down their stock purchases. Surya outlines step-by-step strategies for averaging down, emphasizing the importance of technical analysis, identifying support levels, and proper allocation of investment funds. He also advises on avoiding common mistakes and provides guidelines tailored for different types of stocks. Viewers are encouraged to subscribe and join Mikir Dividen for more investment tips.
Takeaways
- 📉 Foreign investors sold nearly Rp5 trillion of Indonesian stocks from late March to early April 2024, causing a rise in the dollar and a fall in the rupiah to almost Rp16,000 per US dollar.
- 📈 The stock market decline presents an opportunity to average down, buying stocks at lower prices.
- ⚠️ Common mistakes in averaging down include investing too much at once and not considering further price drops.
- 🔍 Using technical analysis, such as identifying support levels, can help determine optimal points for averaging down.
- 📊 For example, if TLKM stock drops to Rp3,500 and shows signs of a rebound, this could be a good point to buy.
- 💡 Allocate only a portion of the investment capital at each support level to avoid running out of funds if prices drop further.
- 🛑 Avoid buying during a continuous price drop (catching a falling knife); wait for signs of stabilization.
- 👍 Averaging down is suitable for stocks with strong fundamentals and growth potential.
- 🧩 Different strategies, such as percentage-based buying or using a pyramid method, can help manage risk and optimize average costs.
- 📈 Mikir Dividen provides guidelines and plans for averaging down and up, tailored to different stock types and market conditions.
Q & A
What is the main topic discussed in the video script?
-The main topic discussed is the strategy of averaging down in stock investments, particularly in the context of the recent drop in Indonesian stock prices and foreign investors' net sales.
Why have foreign investors been selling Indonesian stocks recently?
-Foreign investors have sold nearly Rp5 trillion worth of Indonesian stocks from late March to early April 2024, causing a drop in demand for the Indonesian rupiah and leading to its depreciation.
What is the effect of foreign investors selling Indonesian stocks?
-The effect of foreign investors selling Indonesian stocks includes a rise in demand for the US dollar, leading to the weakening of the rupiah, and a significant drop in the Indonesian stock market.
What is 'averaging down' in stock investments?
-Averaging down is a strategy where an investor buys additional shares of a stock at a lower price than the original purchase price to reduce the average cost per share.
What are some common mistakes investors make when averaging down?
-Common mistakes include averaging down indiscriminately, using all available funds at once, and not considering the potential for further price drops.
Why is technical analysis important for averaging down?
-Technical analysis is important because it helps investors identify key support and resistance levels, making it possible to determine optimal points for buying more shares and minimizing risk.
What is the suggested strategy for buying shares when using technical analysis?
-The suggested strategy is to buy shares at support levels, but only after a green candle (indicating a potential rebound) appears, and to avoid buying during a downtrend without confirmation.
What is the 'support' in technical analysis?
-In technical analysis, 'support' refers to a price level where a stock tends to find buying interest as it falls, which could potentially lead to a price rebound.
What is a recommended approach for averaging down in Telkom shares?
-For Telkom shares, the recommended approach includes averaging down at the support level of 3,500, then again at 3,390 if prices fall further, but only buying when a green candle appears.
Why is it important to allocate funds strategically when averaging down?
-It's important to allocate funds strategically to ensure that you have enough capital to continue buying at lower levels if the price keeps dropping, rather than using all funds at once and missing out on better opportunities.
What is the 'pyramid' method in averaging down?
-The 'pyramid' method involves increasing the amount of investment as the stock price falls, starting with a smaller purchase and gradually increasing the investment amount to lower the average purchase price effectively.
What should investors consider about the fundamentals of a stock before averaging down?
-Investors should ensure that the stock has strong fundamentals, including solid growth prospects and good corporate governance, to minimize the risk of prolonged price declines.
How can the averaging down strategy differ for cyclical stocks like commodities?
-For cyclical stocks, the strategy involves making smaller initial purchases and increasing the investment more significantly at lower price levels, keeping in mind the potential for significant price fluctuations.
What is the benefit of leaving some cash reserve when averaging down?
-Leaving a cash reserve allows for flexibility in case of unforeseen price drops, ensuring that there is still capital available to take advantage of lower prices.
What is the 'averaging up' strategy and when is it used?
-The 'averaging up' strategy involves buying more shares as the stock price rises, which is used when the stock's price is increasing due to strong fundamentals and positive market conditions.
Outlines
📉 Foreign Investors' Net Sales and Rupiah Depreciation
Surya discusses the recent net sales by foreign investors in Indonesian stocks, amounting to nearly IDR 5 trillion from late March to early April 2024. This exodus has led to a surge in the demand for dollars, causing the rupiah to weaken to almost 16,000 per USD. He explains that despite the scary situation, this could be an opportunity for investors to average down or buy stocks at lower prices.
📊 Step-by-Step Guide to Averaging Down
Surya introduces the episode's focus: a step-by-step guide to averaging down without incurring significant losses. He emphasizes the importance of inviting friends and family to subscribe to his YouTube channel, Mikir Duit. He explains that while averaging down might seem simple, investors often make mistakes such as blindly buying more shares as prices drop without considering the potential for further declines.
📉 Common Mistakes in Averaging Down
Surya highlights common mistakes investors make when averaging down. These include going all-in at a single price point, which can be risky if the stock continues to fall. He explains that if the stock has strong fundamentals, it's usually safe to wait out the downturn. However, for stocks that are only temporarily popular, this can lead to long-term losses. Additionally, traders should avoid averaging down as their focus is on short-term gains.
🔍 Using Technical Analysis for Averaging Down
Surya recommends using technical analysis to determine the best points to average down. He explains that technical analysis isn't just for traders but is a tool for investors to identify optimal buy and sell points. Key concepts include support and resistance levels, which indicate potential buying opportunities when the price reaches these points. He advises spreading out buy points to manage risk better.
📈 Practical Example of Averaging Down with Telkom
Using Telkom stock as an example, Surya illustrates how to apply the averaging down strategy. He suggests buying in at specific support levels rather than all at once. For instance, if Telkom's price drops to 3,500 and shows signs of an uptick, investors should buy a portion of their planned investment. He advises against going all-in and recommends waiting for further support levels to buy more if necessary.
📉 Strategy for Averaging Down by Percentage Drop
Surya discusses an alternative method of averaging down by targeting specific percentage drops. For example, buying more shares of Telkom each time the price drops by 15%. He explains how to allocate investment capital proportionally across multiple buy points to manage risk effectively.
📊 Pyramiding Strategy for Averaging Down
Surya introduces the pyramiding strategy, where initial buy-ins are smaller, and subsequent purchases increase in size as the stock price drops. This approach aims to lower the average purchase price more effectively. He explains the benefits of this method, including better capital management and potential lower average costs.
📉 Averaging Down with Dividend Stocks
Surya explains how to average down with dividend-paying stocks. He advises determining buy points based on the stock's fair value and subsequent drops to cheaper levels. Using BBri as an example, he outlines how to allocate capital across different price points to maximize investment efficiency.
📈 Strategy for Cyclical Stocks
For cyclical stocks like those in the commodities sector, Surya suggests a different strategy. He explains how to allocate investment capital in stages, starting with a smaller percentage at fair value and increasing buy-ins as prices drop to cheaper levels. This method helps manage risk and allows for better average pricing.
💰 Averaging Up and Subscription Invitation
Surya concludes with a plan for averaging up, considering the reasons behind a stock's price increase. He encourages viewers to subscribe to Mikir Dividen for detailed guidelines on capital allocation and both averaging down and up strategies. He provides a link for viewers to join the subscription service.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Net sale
💡Averaging down
💡Support and Resistance
💡Fundamental analysis
💡Candle
💡Floating loss
💡Technical analysis
💡Buy on weakness
💡Pyramid method
💡Dividend
Highlights
Investor asing net sale saham Indonesia hampir Rp5 triliun dari akhir Maret hingga awal April 2024.
Demand dolar naik menyebabkan rupiah melemah mendekati Rp.900 per dolar AS.
Strategi averaging down bisa menjadi peluang saat saham turun.
Kesalahan umum dalam averaging down adalah melakukan pembelian berlebihan terlalu cepat.
Penting untuk tidak all-in saat melakukan averaging down untuk mengelola risiko.
Analisis teknikal dapat membantu menemukan titik-titik support untuk averaging down.
Support merupakan titik terbawah yang potensial untuk membeli saham.
Breakdown support bisa menjadi sinyal untuk menunggu titik beli yang lebih jauh.
Contoh strategi averaging down untuk saham TLKM dengan menunggu di level support 3.390.
Pentingnya memilih saham dengan fundamental yang baik dan tidak terpengaruh oleh gejolak pasar.
Ketidakpastian psikologis bisa terjadi saat melakukan averaging down jika tidak terencana dengan baik.
Metode averaging down bisa menggunakan pendekatan piramida untuk mengurangi rata-rata harga beli.
Pola averaging down berbeda tergantung karakteristik saham, seperti cyclical atau growth.
Pentingnya memiliki alokasi modal yang terencana untuk setiap langkah averaging down.
Alokasi modal per saham bisa disesuaikan dengan fair value dan potensi penurunan harga lebih lanjut.
Transcripts
Hai balik lagi bersama aku Surya kamu
tahu enggak sih dalam sepekan terakhir
ini dari akhir Maret sampai awal April
2024 investor asing itu udah net sale
saham Indonesia hampir Rp5 triliun
artinya banyak investor asing yang
keluar dari Indonesia efeknya demand
dolar tuh naik Sehingga rupiah melemah
ke
r.900 per dolar AS dekat banget sama
16.000 kan pasar saham pun jeblok Wah
seram banget dong nih oh enggak ini
justru bisa jadi peluang untuk average
down atau nyerok saham di harga bawah
untuk itu di episode kali ini aku akan
jelasin step by step untuk melakukan
average down biar enggak boncos Sebelum
itu jangan lupa ajak kerabat pacar istri
mantan keluarga sampai musuh untuk
subscribe channel YouTube mikir duit ya
averaging down atau beli saham lagi di
harga yang lebih rendah Emang terdengar
gampang
tapi tahu enggak ada beberapa kesalahan
yang sering dilakukan investor atau
trader saat melakukan averaging down ya
ni averaging down-nya membabi buta
karena merasa harga sahamnya sudah turun
kayak langsung all in di harga satu
harga gitu Padahal ada potensi harganya
turun lebih rendah lagi hasilnya saat
harga saham lanjut turun ya kita
kehabisan peluru enggak punya modal ya
kalau sahamnya punya fundamental bagus
sih aman tinggal Tungguin aja 3 bulan
sampai 1 tahun juga selesai nyangkutnya
Masalahnya kalau saham yang booming
sesaat itu bisa bikin kita nyangkutnya
lebih lama engak tahu kapan bisa
keluarnya kesalahan lainnya adalah
seorang trader yang melakukan averaging
down kenapa salah ya karena karakter
trader tuh beli dan jual dia enggak
mikirin harus ngeavverage harga lebih
rendah agar bisa Cuan lebih maksimal
karena time frame mereka jangka pendek
kalau trader averaging down resiko
ruginya juga Tinggi karena biasanya
saham yang ditransaksikan trader itu
berbasis keaktifan di pasar bukan
fundamental sedangkan saham yang aktif
di pasar belum tentu fundamentalnya Oke
jadi gimana cara averaging Down yang
baik agar enggak boncos pertama
menggunakan analisis teknikal Wih gua
investor masa gua pakai analisis
teknikal sih baca-baca chart gitu eh
sebenarnya analisis teknikal ini bukan
punya trader doang ya tapi lebih ke
tools dalam saham di mana bisa dipakai
untuk investor untuk trader dan kita
bisa menentukan titik jual beli yang Oke
melihat dari psikologis market di eh
periode sebelumnya gitu nah di mana
dalam eh teknikal tuh ada yang namanya
support dan Resistance nah support ini
bisa dibilang sih bahasa simpelnya eh
titik terbawah yang bisa Jadi potensi e
titik beli karena setiap dia menyatuh
support ada potensi harga sampnya naik
atau ada candle hijaunya gitu Nah kalau
udah ada naik tipis dan muncul candle
hijau di titik support Nah itu kita bisa
beli dengan strategi buy on weakness
tapi kalau lanjut turun ternyata jebol
support atau biasa disebut breakdown
berarti yang dipantau adalah support di
bawahnya lagi nah setiap support itu
bisa kita jadi acuan untuk titik beli
averaging down nah tapi saran ambil
titik supportnya jangan dekat-dekatan
ambil yang agak jauhan biar resikonya
lebih terukur misalnya nih Kamu beli
tlkm di pucuk harga 4.210 pada 20
Februari 2024 lalu harga seham tlkm
terus turun kan sampai saat ini nah di
mana titik averaging down terbaik
menurutku titik yang paling terdekat tuh
ada di
3.500 nah saat dia turun ke level itu
dan mulai muncul candle hijau naik kita
bisa masuk untuk averaging down nah tapi
enggak all in ya cuman 25% dari alokasi
modal yang kita siapkan selanjutnya
tunggu di titik support
3.390 untuk melakukan averaging down
selanjutnya tapi ingat posisi averaging
down kita lakukan ketika ada candle
hijau yang sudah muncul jangan pas
candle merah lagi terjun bebas tetap
diborong risiko gede bisa dibilang tuh
nangkap pisau jatuh jika lanjut jatuh
lagi bisa tunggu di support selanjutnya
di 3.000 Nah kalau jatuh lagi ya udah
cuekin aja lah nanti makin rugi Nah
untuk itu syarat untuk menokon averaging
down adalah saham yang fundamentalnya
bagus kinernya masih bertumbuh dan
Enggak ada masalah sama GCG atau
kepatuhannya sehingga saat tekanan harga
meredah dia bisa balik ke harga atas
lagi Nah untuk saham Telkom sendiri aku
saranin sih berhenti di 3.000 aja karena
support selanjut itu ada di 2.500 dan
itu level market Crash pandemi covid-19
Jadi nikmatin aja ya harga saham Telkom
bisa pulih lagi ya Kelebihan cara ini
adalah kamu bisa hemat modal average
down di titik-titik yang berpotensi
rebound kalau beruntung ternyata reound
kan lumayan kita beli di harga Batam
tapi kalau misal turun lagi kita masih
punya peluru untuk nyerok di bawahnya
lagi kelemahannya sikologismu bisa
terkoyak-koyak karena jarak average
price dengan titik support bisa jadi
jauh banget gitu kedua melakukan average
down dengan cara targetkan di penurunan
berapa persen kalau mau nyeroknya gitu
misalnya setiap floating loss 15 % kamu
akan serok jadi sudahudah ditentukan
dari awal nih berarti dari 4.200 di
saham Telkom ee 15%-nya berapa misalkan
3.500 Terus yang kedua 3.000 yang ketiga
berapa 2.500 Nah itu kita berarti akan
melakukan averaging down setiap saham
Telkom berada di level tersebut nah
alokasi modal yang dimasukkan setiap
fver juga dibagi rata misalnya misalkan
100% modal ee untuk averageong kita bagi
3 berarti 33% modal per kali nyerok
Selain itu kamu juga bisa menggunakan
metode ee mungkin bisa dibilang piramida
ya Jadi kita nyerok pertamanya tu kecil
tapi nyerok semakin keb bisa semakin
besar tujuannya untuk menurunkan harga
rata-rata menjadi lebih rendah gitu
misalnya serok pertama 20% dari modal
serok kedua 30% dari modal dan serok
ketiga 50% gitu sehingga average
averaging press Harusnya bisa lebih oke
nah kelebihan dari metode ini sebenarnya
adalah kepastian kamu tahu titik ee
nyerok itu kapan aja gitu nah resikonya
ya kita ggak tahu pas kamu nyerok Itu
posisinya candlennya jangan-jangan lagi
turun jauh banget jadi ada potensi habis
nyerok Ya turun lagi
gitu ketiga di mikir dividen kami juga
memberikan guideline untuk strategi
averaging down nah guideline averaging
down ini akan disesuaikan dengan e jenis
saham posisi average price serta saran
untuk alokasi mode saham Jika kamu beli
saham pertama di level harga tertentu
misalnya nih di saham
bbri Jika kamu masuk di harga fair value
atau di sini bahasaku yang standar
berarti kamu harus masuk 40% dari
rencana modal yang dialokasikan ke saham
tersebut jika target alokasi modal di
bbri itu R juta berarti masuknya R juta
dulu nah Jika harga saham bbri turun ke
rentang kisaran level murah berarti kita
bisa averaging down sekitar 1,8 juta
atau 30% dari sistem modal di saham
tersebut nah ternyata jika turun lagi ke
level yang sangat murah kita bisa serok
di modal 2,64 juta Wah masih ada Sista
ya sekitar r jutaan Nah iya modal
terakhir itu buat jaga-jaga jika saham
bbri turun ke level yang lebih rendah
lagi gitu nah namun pola averaging down
ini akan berbeda-beda sesuai dengan
karakter sahamnya jika karakter saham
cyclical seperti komoditas strateginya
beda misalnya kamu beli saham untr di
harga fair value-nya kami sarankan untuk
beli 20% dari modal dulu jadi misalnya
modalmu Rp100 juta berarti masuk R juta
dulu lalu saat untr turun ke level harga
lebih murah kita bisa serok 25% dan dari
sisa modal yakni Rp80 juta Berarti
sekitar r juta saat harga saham turun
lagi ke level yang murah banget kita
bisa masuk 60% dari r0 juta yakni rp36
juta berarti masih ada sisa 24 juta yang
bisa kita gunakan jika harga saham turun
lagi ke level yang lebih rendah nah
dalam skema ini kami selalu memberikan
sisa cash untuk hal-hal yang enggak
terduka jika harga saham naik gimana ya
kita juga kasih plan averaging up-nya
dengan tetap memperhatikan penyebab
kenaikan sebuah saham Nah kamu mau dapat
guideline alokasi modal dan averaging
down serta averaging up seperti ini yuk
langsung join aja mikir dividen dengan
klik link di deskripsi ya
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