The Fight Over Minerals for Green Energy — and a Better Way Forward | Saleem Ali | TED

Summary

This script discusses the critical role of minerals in sustaining both life and the transition to clean energy. It highlights the challenges of geographical constraints and geopolitical tensions in mineral supply, proposing a 'mineral trust' as a solution to manage resources efficiently and reduce conflicts. The concept aims to create a technocratic, efficient system for global mineral management, ensuring a sustainable supply for the green transition while addressing social and environmental concerns.

Takeaways

• 🌾 Minerals are essential for metabolism and have been traded even during wartime, as seen in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
• 🏗️ Minerals are crucial for building infrastructure that supports clean and reliable energy sources, which are vital for life's various forms.
• ⚡ Sustainable energy forms, such as solar, wind, hydropower, and geothermal, require more materials for the same amount of energy generation.
• 🌞 Solar energy, in particular, relies heavily on critical minerals, as indicated by the blue bar in the research presented.
• 🌍 Geographical constraints make minerals and energy infrastructure intractable conflicts, as resources can only be harnessed in specific areas.
• 🇿🇦 South Africa's large platinum reserves make it a key player in the hydrogen economy due to the metal's use in hydrogen fuel cells.
• 🇨🇳 China's dominance in mineral refining technologies highlights the importance of downstream processing in the mineral supply chain.
• 🌐 Diversification in mineral sourcing is sought globally, but it may lead to less efficient and cleaner greenfield developments rather than brownfield.
• 🚫 Community resistance to new mining sites, as seen in Minnesota, can halt even lucrative green-transition projects due to social and environmental concerns.
• 🌐 Geopolitical tensions exist between resource-rich and demand-heavy countries, such as China and the United States, complicating mineral trade.
• 💡 The concept of a 'mineral trust' for the green transition is proposed as a planetary mechanism to manage mineral resources more effectively and efficiently.
• 🌳 The mineral trust would function similarly to an asset protection trust, with mineral-producing and technology-producing countries as beneficiaries and trustees, managed by technical arms of the UN.

Q & A

Why are minerals considered essential even during times of war, as mentioned in the script?

Minerals are essential for human metabolism and are crucial components in the production of food and medicine. They are also vital for building infrastructure that supports clean and reliable energy, which is indispensable for sustaining life and societal functions.

How do sustainable energy forms relate to the demand for materials?

Sustainable energy forms, such as solar, wind, hydropower, and geothermal, require more materials compared to traditional energy sources for the same amount of energy generation. This increased demand is due to the components needed for the technology that harnesses these renewable energy sources.

What is the significance of critical minerals in solar energy generation?

Critical minerals are essential for the production of solar panels. The script specifically mentions that the blue bar in the research represents the amount of critical minerals needed to produce solar energy, indicating their importance in the solar industry.

Why are conflicts involving minerals and energy considered the most intractable according to the speaker?

The speaker suggests that conflicts involving minerals and energy are the most difficult to resolve because they are confined by geography. The availability of minerals and suitable conditions for energy generation are limited to specific areas, leading to competition and disputes over these resources.

What role does South Africa play in the hydrogen economy due to its mineral reserves?

South Africa has massive reserves of platinum, which is a critical component in hydrogen fuel cells. This geological advantage makes South Africa a pivotal player in the development and use of hydrogen as a clean energy source.

What is the impact of China's investment in downprocessing technologies on the mineral market?

China's significant investment in downprocessing technologies has positioned it as a dominant player in the mineral market. This dominance affects the refining and distribution of minerals, which are essential for various industries, including clean energy.

What are the challenges associated with diversifying mineral sourcing?

Diversifying mineral sourcing can lead to the development of new sites, or greenfield development, which may not be more economically efficient or environmentally cleaner. It can also result in social and environmental conflicts with local communities who may oppose these developments.

What is the concept of a 'mineral trust' for the green transition proposed by the speaker?

The 'mineral trust' is a planetary mechanism that functions like an asset protection trust, where mineral-producing and technology-producing countries act as beneficiaries and trustees, respectively. It aims to manage resources more effectively, with technical arms of the United Nations overseeing key decision points.

How would a mineral trust address the issue of commodity price fluctuations?

A mineral trust would include a green stockpile that acts as a buffer against commodity price changes. This stockpile would protect mineral-producing countries from economic instability during market fluctuations, similar to a rainy day fund.

What are the potential benefits of recycling within the context of the mineral trust?

The mineral trust could facilitate a circular economy by stockpiling recycled materials and potentially leasing metals. This would create incentives for recycling and sustainable use of materials, promoting environmental conservation.

Why is the establishment of a new panel by the United Nations Secretary General significant for the mineral trust idea?

The new panel focused on energy transition minerals signifies international recognition of the importance of minerals in the green transition. It provides an opportunity for the mineral trust idea to be considered and potentially implemented in a timely manner, addressing the urgent need for climate action.

Outlines

00:00

🌟 Minerals: Key to Sustainable Energy and Global Trade

This paragraph discusses the critical role of minerals in both human metabolism and the infrastructure needed for clean energy. It highlights the increased demand for minerals in sustainable energy sources like solar, wind, hydropower, and geothermal. The speaker emphasizes the geographical constraints of mineral resources, which can lead to conflicts, both geopolitical and domestic. The concept of a 'mineral trust' is introduced as a potential solution to manage these resources more effectively, involving mineral-producing and technology-producing countries in a trustee relationship managed by technical arms of the United Nations.

05:01

🌱 The Mineral Trust: A Mechanism for Efficient Resource Management

The speaker elaborates on the concept of a 'mineral trust', comparing it to an asset protection trust where control is assigned to a third party for effective management. The beneficiaries would be mineral-producing countries, and the trustees would manage the resources, with profits still accruing to the countries. This system would include a green stockpile to buffer against commodity price changes and act as a rainy day fund. The speaker argues that this mechanism could be beneficial for countries like Indonesia, which is a major nickel producer, by preventing the weaponization of resource control and promoting a more efficient global economy. The paragraph also addresses concerns about consumption and recycling, explaining the limitations of relying solely on recycling and the need for a stock of materials to enable it.

10:02

🌍 Cooperation Over Minerals: Lessons from History and the Future

In this paragraph, the speaker discusses the potential for international cooperation in managing minerals, drawing on historical precedents such as the Antarctic Treaty and the treaty to protect the ozone layer. The speaker argues that despite conflicts, humanity has shown the ability to cooperate on planetary issues. The paragraph also mentions the establishment of a new United Nations panel focused on energy transition minerals, suggesting that the idea of a mineral trust could be timely and relevant. The speaker concludes by emphasizing the importance of minerals for both mitigation and adaptation in the face of climate change, and the need for global cooperation to secure a sustainable future.

Keywords

💡Minerals

Minerals are naturally occurring substances that are essential for various human activities, including metabolism and infrastructure development. In the video, minerals are highlighted as crucial for the production of clean energy technologies, such as solar panels, wind turbines, and fuel cells, which require specific minerals for their construction. The script mentions the importance of minerals in the context of geopolitical conflicts and the need for sustainable energy production.

💡Metabolism

Metabolism refers to the chemical processes that occur within a living organism to maintain life. The script emphasizes how essential certain minerals are for human metabolism, to the extent that trade in grains containing these minerals is maintained even during wartime, illustrating the vital role minerals play in our daily lives.

💡Sustainable Energy

Sustainable energy refers to the production of energy from sources that are renewable and have minimal impact on the environment. The video discusses how sustainable energy sources, such as solar, wind, hydropower, and geothermal, require more materials for their construction compared to traditional energy sources, highlighting the increased demand for minerals in the transition to a greener energy future.

💡Critical Minerals

Critical minerals are elements that are essential for modern technologies and have a potential supply risk. The script specifically mentions the need for critical minerals in solar energy production, emphasizing the importance of these minerals in the development of clean energy infrastructure.

💡Geography

Geography is the study of the Earth's landscapes, peoples, places, and environments. The video script discusses how the availability of minerals and the potential for energy generation, such as wind power, is confined by geography, meaning that mining and energy projects must be located in areas where the necessary resources are naturally occurring.

💡Platinum

Platinum is a precious metal used in various industrial applications, including as a catalyst in hydrogen fuel cells. The script points out South Africa's significant platinum reserves and its pivotal role in the hydrogen economy, demonstrating how the presence of minerals can influence a country's economic and technological importance.

💡Downstream Refining

Downstream refining refers to the processes that occur after the extraction of raw materials, which can include purification, smelting, and manufacturing. The video mentions China's investment in downstream refining technologies for minerals, indicating the country's strategic role in the global supply chain of mineral resources.

💡Diversification

Diversification in the context of the video refers to the strategy of investing in various locations for mining and refining minerals to reduce dependency on any single source. The script discusses the challenges and potential inefficiencies of diversification, such as the economic and environmental impacts of developing new sites.

💡Greenfield Development

Greenfield development is the process of starting a project or building a facility in a new location where there was no previous development. The video contrasts greenfield development with brownfield development, discussing the social and environmental concerns that can arise when new mining or energy projects are proposed in communities that do not want them.

💡Geopolitical Tensions

Geopolitical tensions refer to the political conflicts and rivalries between countries, often related to resources, power, or strategic interests. The script uses the example of the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine to illustrate how minerals can be a point of contention and the need for a cooperative approach to resource management.

💡Mineral Trust

The concept of a 'mineral trust' introduced in the video is a proposed mechanism for managing mineral resources in a way that benefits all parties involved in the green energy transition. It is likened to an asset protection trust, where control is given to a third party to manage resources effectively, with the goal of reducing conflicts and ensuring a sustainable supply of minerals for clean energy technologies.

💡Circular Economy

A circular economy is an economic system aimed at eliminating waste and the continual use of resources. The video suggests that a mineral trust could facilitate a circular economy for minerals, by stockpiling recycled materials and potentially leasing metals, thus promoting sustainability and reducing the demand for new resource extraction.

💡Recycling

Recycling in the context of the video refers to the process of reusing materials, particularly minerals, to reduce the need for new extraction. The script points out the challenges of recycling, such as the need for a sufficient stock of materials and the balance between product durability and the ability to recycle, using the example of electric car batteries.

💡Tipping Points

Tipping points in the context of climate change refer to critical thresholds that, once crossed, can lead to significant and often irreversible changes in the climate system. The video mentions that scientists believe we are approaching several key tipping points and emphasizes the urgency of transitioning to sustainable energy sources, which requires minerals.

Highlights

Minerals are essential for metabolism and trade exceptions are made for them even in times of war, as seen in the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

Minerals are crucial for building infrastructure to deliver clean, reliable energy.

Sustainable energy forms require more materials compared to traditional energy sources.

Research shows the significant material requirements for solar, wind, hydropower, and geothermal energy generation.

Critical minerals are needed for solar energy, as illustrated by the blue bar in the research.

Geographical constraints make minerals and energy infrastructure conflicts particularly intractable.

South Africa's platinum reserves make it a key player in the hydrogen economy due to its use in fuel cells.

China's dominance in mineral refining technologies highlights the importance of downstream processing.

Diversification in mining and refining locations is sought but may lead to less efficient and cleaner greenfield development.

Greenfield development faces community resistance, as seen in the denied Minnesota green-transition minerals project.

Geopolitical tensions exist between resource-rich and demand countries, exemplified by China-US relations.

The concept of a 'mineral trust' for the green transition is proposed as a solution to conflicts.

A mineral trust would function similarly to an asset protection trust, with beneficiaries and trustees managing resources.

The trust would involve a market price system, profits, and management by technical UN arms like the International Renewable Energy Agency.

A green stockpile would buffer mineral-producing countries from commodity price fluctuations.

Indonesia as the world's largest nickel producer would benefit from the trust without weaponizing resource control.

The mineral trust could facilitate recycling and a circular economy by leasing metals and managing stockpiles.

Historical precedents of cooperation over planetary issues, like the Antarctic Treaty and ozone layer protection, support the feasibility of a mineral trust.

The United Nations' new panel on energy transition minerals offers hope for timely adoption of the mineral trust idea.

Minerals are vital for both mitigation and adaptation infrastructure in combating climate change.

Transcripts

Consider a humble box of breakfast cereal.

On its side you will find a list of minerals.

Minerals which are so essential for our metabolism

that we are willing to make exceptions, even in times of war,

for trade in grains.

This has happened indeed

in the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine.

Now minerals are also essential for humanity in another pivotal way.

They help us build the infrastructure to deliver on clean, reliable energy.

Energy, of course, drives life in all its various forms,

and mineral raw materials are the means by which we harness that energy.

Now the interesting thing is that the more sustainable forms of energy

are the ones that require more materials.

Have a look at this research we did.

For the same amount of energy generation,

take a look at how much more material you need for solar, wind,

hydropower and geothermal.

For solar in particular,

the blue bar represents critical minerals

which are required for us to squeeze that sunshine juice that we so crave.

Now I've spent most of my career studying environmental

and social conflicts

and finding ways of resolving them.

And what I've discovered

is that those conflicts that involve minerals and energy

are the most intractable.

Why is that the case?

Well, it's because minerals and energy infrastructure are confined by geography.

You can only mine where there are minerals.

You can only have wind power where you've got wind, and so on.

So you are in this situation

where you're only going to be able

to harness these resources in particular areas.

So if you look here, South Africa for example,

has massive reserves of platinum.

That's an accident of geology.

But that makes South Africa a pivotal player in the hydrogen economy.

Why, you would wonder?

Hydrogen? Platinum?

Well, you need platinum for hydrogen fuel cells.

Also have a look at China's dominance there.

China has invested tremendously in downprocessing their technologies

around especially refining minerals.

And so downstream refining is also going to be pivotal

in delivering those minerals.

Now diversification is something we are seeking,

and one of the ways in which we're trying to do that

is to invest all over the world in other places

where we can mine and refine.

But keep in mind that if you're going to do that,

you will probably end up developing new sites,

and that may not necessarily be more efficient economically

or cleaner even.

So, while diversification builds resilience,

it is likely to lead to greenfield development, new sites, right,

as opposed to brownfield development.

Now with greenfield development, we have a challenge

because communities often don't want these sites in their backyard.

We've just seen in the last year in Minnesota,

there was a very lucrative green-transition minerals project,

which was denied a permit by the US Department of Interior

because of concerns on social and environmental risks

raised by Indigenous communities.

And indeed, we need to respect those concerns.

So you have this strange situation where you have geopolitical tensions

between countries where there is immense supply of resources

and those where there is demand,

such as between China and the United States currently.

And then you have domestic conflicts over social and environmental risk.

So this is the perfect storm, right?

How do we get out of it?

Well my big bet is that we can get out of it

if we reconfigure the conversation around a planetary mechanism

or what I'm calling

a "mineral trust" for the green transition.

Now how would this mineral trust work?

Well, it would be similar to an asset protection trust,

where you've got a beneficiary that assigns a third party with control,

which is a trustee,

on how to manage those resources most effectively.

So in this case, in the mineral trust,

the beneficiaries would be the mineral producing countries.

You would also have the technology-producing countries

who are demanding the minerals

part of the trustee relationship.

So the trustees would be both.

And so the minerals would go into the mineral trust.

You would have a market price that would be paid by those countries

that are demanding the minerals.

Profits would still accrue in the same way.

And you would have key decision points managed by technical,

not political arms of the United Nations.

And this would in this case be

the International Renewable Energy Agency

and the Climate Technology Centre and Network.

And so what you would have then is this mechanism

that is much more technocratic

and also much more efficient.

You would also pivotally have a green stockpile

where, under situations of commodity price changes,

you would be buffered from those problems for mineral-producing countries.

And it would also be like a rainy day fund.

Now in terms of the larger scheme of things,

this is going to potentially play out pretty well.

But you would wonder why would this be operationalized?

And so a country like Indonesia, let's say,

it's the world's largest nickel producer, right?

It would still have the full control over producing nickel

and also being able to sell the nickel for profit.

The only difference is it couldn't weaponize

the control of its resource.

And that would make this a much more efficient system

for the global economy as well.

Now I can understand some of you may be still very concerned

that this kind of a mechanism is unnecessary.

Friends in the environmentalist community would say:

"We should just be consuming less, we shouldn't be mining," right?

And I totally agree with you,

but that's for high-income countries.

Keep in mind there are 760 million people, at least,

who do not have access to even electricity.

You can't ask them to consume less, right?

So you've got that dynamic at play.

Now the second question,

which our friends would often raise, again,

within the environmentalist community is:

"Why don't we recycle?" Right?

And that's a very cogent question,

but you need to have stock of material to recycle, folks.

If you don't have the stock, you can't recycle.

And the other challenge with recycling is that it puts you in this trade off

between durability of a product --

so you want your product to last long

because that's an important sustainability criterion,

but if it lasts long, you can't recycle it, right?

So you have to find that sweet spot

of how long you want to have that product in use.

And we did this analysis just for electric car batteries.

And in here you can see in the red bars basically

that is the amount of mineral stock in 2015 to 2016

that was available out of recycled material

to contribute towards manufacturing these batteries.

And look at the blue bars, how the demand is likely to grow.

And that's in-use material.

So the average sweet spot is 14 years for an electric car battery.

So you want it to last 14 years.

And you cannot have that material available for recycling, OK?

But the good news with our mineral trust

is that it can still be used as a mechanism

actually to have recycling put through.

Where would it go?

You could put it in the stockpile.

So once you have the stocks, you want a circular economy,

you put it in the stockpile, and you could even lease metal,

which is really cool, right?

Like you lease your cars, you could lease your metal.

And you know, that way batteries could be leased and so on.

And that creates incentives as well.

But the trust can be used for that too.

Now I know there are still friends who will be skeptics,

especially in the defense establishment.

And they'll say, like, this guy coming from academia, rolling their eyes,

basically saying, you know,

this fellow is just singing some mineral kumbaya in la la land.

He has no idea about realpolitik

and, you know, the high politics of war and peace.

Well I would respectfully submit to them

that I have actually looked at war and peace issues.

I come originally from Pakistan,

which is a country that has endured much conflict.

So I am sensitive to those issues.

And you'd be surprised, actually,

to find that it is precisely over planetary issues

where humanity has cooperated in unlikely ways.

The only treaty in the United Nations system where we have ratification

from all UN member states is a treaty on environmental protection.

It's the treaty to protect the ozone layer, alright?

Now you'd say that was in 1987,

it was a time of relative peace.

Well go back to the 1950s.

We have the Antarctic Treaty,

where you had multiple claimants on this massive continent.

And those claimants, for the greater good of science,

set aside their claims,

and they signed the Antarctic Treaty,

including the former Soviet Union.

Have a look at this photograph as well.

It shows scientists from the former Soviet Union

and the United States of America

chatting quite amiably

at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, IIASA.

That's a mouthful, just remember IIASA.

IIASA was established at the height of the Cold War,

in the year I was born, incidentally.

But that organization is still around today.

Why was it established even then?

Because during the Cold War, too,

the former Soviet Union, the United States and many other countries

realized that global environmental data has to be shared.

And it is this institution which develops

many of the social protection models around climate change as well,

in terms of doing scenario analysis.

And so IIASA shows us

that we can cooperate over these kinds of issues as well.

Now even in terms of metals,

we have had one experiment of trying to cooperate.

The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development

in the 1970s tried to set up a trading platform for the metal tin.

But it didn't work

because it was never framed around planetary sustainability issues.

So I've tried to, in this idea for a mineral trust,

learn from these lessons and mistakes so that it is a very pragmatic idea.

It's not pie in the sky, it's something we can do.

The good news is we do have now a new panel

that has been established by the United Nations secretary general

that is focused on energy transition minerals.

So we hope that this idea can hopefully be taken up in a very timely way,

because time is running out.

Scientists have consensus

that we have basically come to the point

of crossing five key tipping points on climate change

within the next few decades.

And without minerals, folks,

we cannot mitigate emissions, as I have shown.

But we cannot even adapt.

Because even for infrastructure,

for adaptation, you need minerals, right?

So minerals are a civilizational asset.

We don't need to fight over them.

We have the history and precedent to show that we can cooperate over them,

just as we have cooperated over grains,

which have minerals, in times of war,

we can surely cooperate over minerals that energize our lives.

Our future depends on it.

Thank you.

(Applause)