Impact of Budget on these 8 stocks | Akshat Shrivastava

Summary

This video offers insights into how the budget may influence the stock market, advising against impulsive investment in sectors like defense and railways without data-backed analysis. The speaker highlights the potential of AI products for financial independence and promotes a masterclass for non-tech individuals. Emphasizing the importance of capital expenditure and job creation, the video suggests sectors like digital infrastructure, agriculture, and green energy as promising investment opportunities, with specific stock recommendations for each.

Takeaways

• 📈 The speaker advises against blindly investing in defense or railway stocks without understanding the data and facts presented in the budget.
• 💡 An alternative to traditional stock investments is building AI products, which the speaker suggests can be done by people without a tech background through education platforms like 'build school'.
• 🔢 The budget's meta data is crucial for understanding the government's financial plans, and the speaker emphasizes the importance of comparing actual expenditures with budgeted figures.
• 📉 The speaker predicts that if the government does not follow through on its promise to increase defense spending, related stocks may fall, and they personally avoid investing in this sector.
• 🇮🇳 The speaker highlights the Indian government's focus on addressing job scarcity and inflation, which are key pain points, and appreciates the government's focus on capital expenditure.
• 🏭 The speaker is bullish on sectors that will benefit from a shift towards digital infrastructure, citing companies like TCS and Geojith Finance as potential investments.
• 🚫 The speaker warns that the defense theme may have already reached its peak and advises looking for niche opportunities within the sector that align with indigenous manufacturing.
• 🚆 The speaker is not bullish on railway stocks due to the complexity and broad range of companies involved, suggesting a basket approach for those interested.
• ✈️ The speaker suggests that airlines could be a better investment than railways, as the middle class in India grows and air travel becomes more prevalent.
• 🌱 The speaker is bullish on the agricultural sector, citing government investment in agri R&D and recommending stocks like Pi Industries.
• 🌿 The speaker also sees potential in green energy, particularly companies involved in engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) of renewable energy projects.

Q & A

What is the main topic of the video?

The main topic of the video is to help viewers understand how the budget might impact the stock market and to discuss some stocks that the speaker is bullish about.

What is the speaker's stance on defense stocks?

The speaker is not bullish on defense stocks, suggesting that the market has already factored in the government's spending on defense and that these stocks might fall if the budget does not meet expectations.

What is the speaker's advice regarding railway stocks?

The speaker advises caution with railway stocks, suggesting that it's complicated to analyze this sector and recommends creating a basket of 10-15 stocks in this category if one still wants to invest.

What is the speaker's view on the current state of the Indian economy?

The speaker mentions that the Indian economy is currently facing issues like lack of jobs and high inflation, and that the government is focusing on capital expenditure to address these issues.

What is the speaker's opinion on the potential of AI products in achieving financial independence?

The speaker believes that building AI products is a viable way to achieve financial independence, especially for those without a tech background, and mentions a master class offered by Build School for learning how to build and launch AI-related products.

What are the two key themes the speaker is bullish about in the Indian stock market?

The speaker is bullish about the agricultural theme and the digital infrastructure theme, suggesting that these areas will see quality growth and capital expenditure.

What is the speaker's strategy for investing in the defense sector?

The speaker suggests focusing on very niche themes within the defense segment that are required to be indigenized, rather than investing broadly in the defense sector.

What are the two stocks the speaker is bullish about and why?

The speaker is bullish about Geo Finance and TCS. The speaker believes that Geo Finance is a stable stock with potential for growth in India's digital requirements, and TCS is expected to benefit from India's focus on digital infrastructure and a potential interest rate cut.

What is the speaker's view on the Indian government's focus on capital expenditure?

The speaker appreciates the BJP government's focus on capital expenditure, as it is a good type of expenditure that can lead to quality growth and sensible results.

What is the speaker's advice on how to become a better investor?

The speaker advises learning the fundamentals of investing, running a stock market course, and participating in a community like the Wisdom Community to learn and practice what has been taught.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Stock Market Analysis Post-Budget

The speaker begins by addressing the audience and setting the context for the video, which is to analyze how the budget might impact the stock market. They caution against making impulsive stock purchases based on the budget and emphasize the importance of understanding data and facts. The speaker also introduces an AI product-building school, offering a free masterclass for the first 1,000 users, which is relevant for individuals from various professional backgrounds. The video then transitions to discussing the budget's meta data, comparing actual expenditures to budgeted amounts, and highlighting the changes from 2023 to 2024. The speaker also touches on the political implications of the budget, particularly the focus on nationalism and defense spending, and provides a personal analysis of the defense theme in the stock market.

05:01

💼 Capital Expenditure and Infrastructure Focus

In this paragraph, the speaker discusses the government's focus on capital expenditure, appreciating the growth rate and its potential impact on sensible results. The speaker, who teaches economics and finance, presents data and analysis without political bias. They mention running a stock market course for beginners and the benefits of joining the Wisdom Community for further learning and practice. The speaker then delves into the distinction between physical and digital infrastructure, suggesting a shift in focus towards digital infrastructure. They express bullishness on two stocks, Geo Finance and TCS, due to their potential growth in the digital infrastructure space, and provide a brief analysis of the defense sector's opportunities and challenges.

10:02

🛫 Diversifying Investment Themes

The speaker moves on to discuss various investment themes, starting with the defense sector, where they express a cautious approach due to the sector's reliance on international relations and the potential for indigenous manufacturing. They suggest looking for niche themes within the defense segment that might offer growth opportunities. The speaker then shifts focus to railway stocks, advising against broad investment in this sector due to its complexity and suggesting a basket approach instead. They also touch on the potential of airline stocks as a better investment theme, given the growing middle class and the preference for air travel over railways.

15:02

🌱 Agricultural and Digital Themes for Growth

In the final paragraph, the speaker outlines their bullish stance on the agricultural theme, citing a statement by NAS Chief Investment in ag R&D and the potential for higher yields. They recommend Pi Industries as a stock to watch due to its consolidation and sensible P/E numbers. The speaker also discusses the potential of IT stocks like TCS and Infosys, highlighting technical patterns and the benefits of interest rate cuts for these companies. They conclude with a mention of green energy as a continuing theme, with a focus on EPC companies and the potential for growth in this sector.

Keywords

💡Budget

The term 'budget' refers to a financial plan that outlines the government's proposed expenditures and revenues. In the video, the budget is a central theme as it is analyzed for its potential impact on the stock market. The script discusses how the budget's allocations for various sectors like defense and railways can influence stock performance, with the presenter cautioning against investing based solely on these themes without deeper analysis.

💡Stock Market

The 'stock market' is a platform where shares of publicly traded companies are issued, bought, and sold. The video's theme revolves around understanding how the budget might affect the stock market, with the speaker providing insights into which sectors and stocks could be affected by the budget's proposals and actual spending.

💡Defense Stocks

In the context of the video, 'defense stocks' are shares of companies involved in the production of military equipment and services. The script mentions that despite the potential for growth in this sector, the presenter is not bullish on defense stocks due to the market already factoring in budget allocations and the potential for these stocks to fall if actual spending does not meet expectations.

💡Railway Stocks

'Railway stocks' are shares of companies that are involved in the railway industry, such as manufacturing of trains or railway infrastructure. The video script discusses the presenter's skepticism about investing in railway stocks, suggesting that the market may have already priced in expected growth from the budget, and that the sector may not offer the best investment opportunities.

💡AI Products

The term 'AI products' in the script refers to artificial intelligence-based products or solutions that can be developed and commercialized. The video mentions an opportunity for individuals without a technical background to learn how to build AI products through a masterclass, indicating a shift towards technology as an alternative way to achieve financial independence.

💡Capital Expenditure

'Capital expenditure' is the spending by a business on acquiring, upgrading, and maintaining physical assets. In the video, the presenter appreciates the government's focus on capital expenditure, particularly in the context of infrastructure development, which is seen as a positive sign for the economy and potentially beneficial for certain sectors in the stock market.

💡Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. The script identifies inflation as a key concern for the government, which is expected to influence the budget and, by extension, the stock market. The presenter suggests that the government's focus on addressing inflation could impact sectors that are sensitive to price levels.

💡Physical Infrastructure

'Physical infrastructure' refers to the tangible structures and facilities, such as roads, bridges, and buildings. The video discusses how the government's focus on physical infrastructure has been a significant theme in recent years, but the presenter anticipates a shift towards digital infrastructure, which could affect investment opportunities in related stocks.

💡Digital Infrastructure

In the script, 'digital infrastructure' pertains to the technological systems and platforms that enable the functioning of digital services and data management. The presenter is bullish on this theme, suggesting that the government's focus may shift towards enhancing digital infrastructure, which could lead to growth opportunities in related sectors and stocks.

💡Geo Finance

Although not explicitly defined in the script, 'Geo Finance' appears to be a stock that the presenter is bullish on, likely related to the digital infrastructure theme. The presenter mentions considering increasing positions in this stock, indicating a belief in its potential for growth due to the government's focus on digital initiatives.

💡TCS

TCS, or Tata Consultancy Services, is a leading global IT services, consulting, and business solutions organization. The script highlights TCS as a stock that the presenter is bullish on, associating its potential growth with the anticipated increase in digital infrastructure spending by the government.

Highlights

The video aims to help viewers understand the potential impact of the budget on the stock market and guide them on which stocks to consider.

The speaker warns against blindly investing in defense or railway stocks without analyzing data and facts.

An introduction to an alternative way to achieve financial independence through building AI products, even for those without a tech background.

A mention of a free masterclass for building AI-related products, available to the first 1,000 users through links in the description.

The importance of understanding the budget's metadata, including actual versus budgeted expenditures, is emphasized.

A detailed analysis of the defense budget, highlighting an 8% increase from 2023 to 2024, indicating a positive development.

The speaker suggests that the market has already factored in increased defense spending, warning of potential falls if this does not materialize.

The government's focus on capital expenditure, which is seen as a positive move towards addressing job creation and inflation.

An appreciation of the BJP government's focus on capital expenditure and its potential impact on sensible results.

The speaker's personal stock market course is advertised, promising to teach everything from scratch for beginners.

A shift in focus from physical to digital infrastructure is predicted, with the speaker expressing bullishness on certain tech stocks.

Specific stocks that the speaker is bullish about are mentioned, including Geo Finance and TCS, due to their potential growth in digital infrastructure.

A discussion on India's defense sector opportunities and the potential for defense stocks to fall if the budget does not meet expectations.

The speaker advises caution in investing in railway stocks due to the complexity and the need for a niche focus within the sector.

An alternative suggestion to consider airline stocks due to the growing middle class and preference for air travel over railways.

The introduction of specific themes the speaker is bullish on, including agriculture, IT stocks, and green energy, with specific stock recommendations.

A final summary of the video's key points, encouraging viewers to analyze the budget and different themes carefully before investing.

Transcripts

hi everyone so on this video I'm going

to help you understand how the budget

might impact the stock market what are

some good bad stocks to purchase many of

you might be thinking you know what boss

I'll buy defense stocks or I'll buy

Railway stocks and and I'm going to get

like multimillionaire or whatever please

do not do it please understand data

facts so I'm going to present all the

data facts in pointwise manner I'll also

reveal some of the stocks that I am

bullish about but this is not a stock

recommendation video please do your own

analysis Financial Independence be built

through stocks but in 2024 there is

another way to do that which is to build

AI products there are a lot of people

who despite having no Tech background

are building AI products and making

money with it too if this sounds

interesting here's your chance to learn

how to do it in build school they teach

how to build and launch AI related

products they are offering a master

class usually this master class is paid

but by using the links in the

description and comment box the first

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absolutely free of cost so whether you

are from a tech background HR background

Finance marketing design or sales

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finally how to acquire your first 100

customers 300,000 people have already

attended and benefited from this master

class so in case you are interested you

can definitely check out the links in

the description and comment box so back

to the video and the first key point

that I will help you understand stand is

the metad DAT of the

budget for example this is the table

please look at this actuals budgeted

revised

bued what was budgeted for example in

2023 593 538 was budgeted as a spent on

defense but the actual expenditure came

out to be little short

5739 right so on and so forth right so

this is point one point two that you

need to know from this data is that see

2024 budget has already been presented

in a way that was the interim budget now

it will be because there the ruling

party has come back to Power now they

will present the actual budget right so

they have already indicated where they

are going to spend money right so for

example they have already said defense

we are going to go and spend so how do

you analyze this data it's very

simple for example see the first key

thing that you should notice is that how

much has it changed from 2023 to

2024 already what has been budgeted so

for

example we went from 593 to

621 8% increase so this is already a

positive development second key point

that this was an election year right the

BJP government came back into power and

all good good things no doubt about that

but the fact is that see that

nationalism thing has played out now

there is no reason for the government to

keep on pushing these themes like

defense

Railways so this is a point that you

need to be careful this is not a buy or

not buy recommendation I'm simply

telling you facts third key point and

the more important point is the market

is already factoring in the fact that in

this new budget govern is going to spend

money on defense now in case that does

not

happen they are going to fall my

estimate is that these stocks are going

to fall so I'm not touching them this is

the type of analysis that you need to do

on other sectors I will give you my take

also on different themes that I'm

bullish about but I'm not really bullish

on defense theme now why am I saying

that so before I speak specifically

about the defense theme let me share

like very key important point and a

common sensical Point here

now budget is brought in order to

achieve some goal that the government

has and one of the key goals

is right now in India Hal is being made

for two things number one lack of jobs

and the number two Hal point is

inflation which

is insur 14 14 15 15% premium

so you know 5% 6% is the only growth no

that is not the case uh the inflation

growth has been fairly high so these are

two pain points now this was a pain

point last year also but in this in

these last 8 10 months what has changed

well election results even government

understands this is not working for us

so maybe we should start focusing on

jobs inflation

such so maybe they will focus on that

good thing is that government is

actually looking at it and this can be

understood by looking at this point this

is always good and I always appreciated

the BJP government for doing this that

they are focusing on capital expenditure

the growth rate of capital expenditure

which is the good type of expenditure is

picking up this is a good point right so

whenever any government is doing good

work we have to appreciate so I'm

appreciating

itom right I teach economics I teach

Finance I analyze the data I present it

in front of you right I have no interest

in becoming like Mont and all that stuff

so it's not as if that I'm during any

political party now back to the video

see this is happening right so this is

good point maybe this will now start

translating into sensible results if the

budgetary allocations make sense okay

now what do I mean by that let me help

you understand that point more and

please this is what allows you to make

money that is not the point right you

have to understand the fundamentals so

that you can realign your portfolio in

case you guys are interested I also run

stock market course a live batch is

coming up I will teach everything from

scratch so if you are a complete

beginner also this course will be very

helpful we study for full four days

right over two weekends so then you put

on the wisdom Community where you end up

learning and practicing whatever I've

taught you for over a year so that is

how you will become a better investor

there is no such course that is

currently being run by

anyone fundamental knowledge I'm doing

it people have really appreciated it so

in case you guys are interested do check

it out so okay plug lug now let me talk

about specific sectors in India there

are two types of things right one is

that you can create physical

infrastructure and second you can create

digital infrastructure both of the

infrastructures are important but one

could clearly see right that the focus

in the last one one and a half two years

was on physical

infrastructure and all that stuff now

the capital expenditure can happen here

also the capital expenditure can happen

here also now here when the capital

expenditure happens we were not focusing

on quality of

infrastructure for

example but do it really translate into

any sort of sensible results the short

answer is no right so I feel that the

government is going to do the right

thing now right it will move away from

this entire physical narrative it will

start focusing more on digital narrative

which brings us to very quick stocks

that I am two stocks that I'm bullish

about I'll explain in that also one is

Geo Finance I already have it I might

increase my positions second is TCS I

discussed this in community also roughly

20 25 odd days

back on TCS stock also why because I

feel that the digital infrastructure is

where a lot of capital expenditure will

lead to Quality growth right so this is

a very important Point quality everyone

understands all that

indigenous theme and all that stuff

right it's not as if that government is

forever going to play this theme only

they are going to keep on playing the

infrastructure physical theme only right

now this theme has been somewhat

neglected according to me so a lot of

support will be lent here that is my

estimate so let me Del deeper into

specific sections because I can already

hear clicking

noises and all that stuff okay so see

guys basically number one point is I

will show you the entire thing right so

the first key point is that India's

defense sector has opportunities for USD

138 billion over the next 10 years very

good news and this is the type of news

that actually has already propelled the

defense

stocks or bunch of different different

stocks have grown up by like four four

five five times okay so this theme has

already run this is point one point two

you can see from this graph that India's

defense budget in the last 10 years has

actually spiked quite a lot okay you

know this graph will be like this right

no it's not as if that in India we only

need defense budget only we need other

things also okay so please remember this

we are probably peing when it comes to

defense spending as per my understanding

or defense growth rate right now do you

guys know that who is the biggest arms

importer in the world well it's India

why because we have to extend favors to

countries like Russia countries like USA

why because India has strategic

importance and us also has a strategic

importance Russia also has a strategic

importance if India wants to maintain

its relationships it needs to give

business to these countries also and as

a

result so please don't miss that point

this is very very

important indigenous this that stuff

which is great no doubt about that but

please do not forget that indigenous

manufacturing of Defense product why

will Russia support us why will US

support us all that stuff so please

remember that this is a critical point I

feel that defense theme has played out I

am not putting any money on this theme

now in case this pinches you and you

disagree with me then what I would

recommend you is that take a look at

these stocks right and order book for

example H

order some stocks which is doing some

kind of very specific Niche work that

can't be outsourced to us or Russia for

example in say and you guys tell me in

the comment box that Ina if you feel

that for example India is working on

defense security Now

defense all

that now that is a critical challenge

for example defense security defense

security is what right that for example

there is certain critical piece of

information that we cannot give to us

and Russia and all all those countries

so is may say which of the companies do

you think will end up doing that type of

work so that is a sub segment of defense

that might grow H cannot keep on growing

that is tough according to my analysis

uh so I'm just giving you a high level

Viewpoint so far I've not been able to

figure out any specific Niche themes I'm

not an expert when it comes to defense

in case some of you are let me know I

will analyze these companies more but

the idea is to specifically figure out a

very Niche theme within the defense

segment which is required to be

indigenized so that's sub segment that

might play out okay so this is what I

would look for if I were to do defense

investing now let's talk quickly about

railway stocks now see guys basically

these type of headlines will come that

hey Indian railways to manufacture

10,000 AC

coaches now the problem is that here is

the universe of Railway stocks now right

for example will you buy bearings right

or will you buy forging companies or

will you buy Railway cables

wires everything will be there cables

wires will be there bearings will be

there forging will be done so many

different different things will be done

so it's impossible to analyze this

entire group of stocks sensibly right

it's complicated it's puning it's

gambling what I would recommend is that

STS right and just create like a basket

of those 10 15 stocks

and right so that is the simple point

that you can do am I doing it no okay

I'm not very bullish on a railway like

physical themes right now so I not

putting in but if that is if you still

feel that Railway is going to grow

because announc then good luck please

you can do that but my advice to you

would be that hey pick like 10 15 stocks

within this category and and mostly try

to pick the stocks that have already not

gone

45xx okay so I hope that this is

sensible a better theme according to me

would be something like Airlines okay

now Airlines why because Airlines may be

right that for example this is the total

outlay or the budgetary allocation of

Airlines the India's middle class

segment is growing now mostly these days

I mean many of us are preferring to

travel by Airways compared to Railways

ac1 AC then the train ticket is almost

equivalent to Airlines

ticket so what I'm trying to tell you is

that from a cost perspective it's not as

if there's now a massive gap between

Airlines and Railways okay if you are in

Middle upper middle class segment then

the chances are that You' be using more

and more Airways so this might increase

I had done a video on spice jet a few

days

back I was just giving an analis audit

not an issue point I'm trying to make is

that companies like Indigo and some of

the end Airlines whichever you see value

in depending on how you want to

aggregate it in your portfolio you could

consider picking these type of companies

it might make more sense now let me

start speaking about specific themes

that I'm bullish on and why and I will

introduce some stocks to you also and

explain you the reason why but so far I

hope that you were able to understand

and appreciate the point overvalue

defense themes raway themes you should

pretty much avoid

it sensibly carefully that is the

precise input that I will have so the

First theme that I'm bullish about is

agricultural theme now there was a

statement that was issued by Nas

Chief investment

in ag R&D then 13 can be fetched now the

Agri R&D is mostly done by the

government or is supported by the

government right so

because for example

specials now it might make sense to pick

like slightly broader type of businesses

here I'm personally picking up something

called as Pi Industries I feel the stock

is good I had already built positions on

it I'll do a very quick analysis right

why Pi industry seems like an okay Bet

as of now

the stock has Consolidated it hasn't run

up like crazy in the last 2 3 years so

consolidate stock right that's one

second key thing it's available at a

sensible P numbers grow there is no

problem in terms of numbers so therefore

I feel that this is a good stock from a

mid to long-term Viewpoint so this is

the first key theme that I will be

bullish on now if you do not agree with

pi Industries you can go and check out

these stocks and Analysis and whichever

stocks you like you can go and pick

second is it stocks I feel that they are

going through a turnaround in fact when

TCS P not only I gave member Community

commentary I also made an open video few

maybe around a month

back have not removed this I had

estimated that the stock will go

something like this

but so this was like faster gain now

again this is a beautiful technical

pattern let me show it to you so right

this is reverse Head and Shoulder now

this is more like a cup with handle

pattern and techn tget this will come

out to be roughly 6,000 rupes ASP right

so there is good gains to be made and as

India starts focusing more on digital

infra right contracts ISS and TCS seems

like the top bidder TCS infosis worst is

over it looks like interest rate cut us

Advantage mea for these companies so

this is set to Rally so I will try to

max out my positions on TCS over the

next one month and a half two months

right so this seems like a good bit as

of now second stock is Gio fin right Gio

problem

right but it is a stable stock in the

sense that it is likely to survive the

next 5 10 years so if you're holding it

from a long-term perspective as India's

digital requirements keep on growing

it's going to do well and profit

making that they recently hiked the goo

plans right and were able to Mint like

very good money so game right and they

will become more and more profitable so

it makes sense to have a little bit of

Stak there right and not cut it and

don't be bother too much about it B Gio

finance stock check if you investing it

from a long-term Viewpoint it makes

sense if you are looking to make

short-term profit on it then no one can

guess it's a very volatile stock finally

I will talk about green energy I think

this is a theme that might still

continue to do well uh a lot of work has

already happened I have a stock called

as s SW solar that is already doing well

I will build more positions on it why

because India is going to reduce its

dependence on conventional sources of

energy but

all that stuff you have to be picky

right at what point certain theme is

playing out for example right now EPC

theme is likely to play out EPC

engineering procurement construction

so because a lot of infrastructure needs

to be built and well connected small Gap

company they are likely to do well

Solis I will revisit this stock tomorrow

on the member community so in case you

guys are interested you can definitely

check it out I hope that you enjoyed

this video I'll make a part two soon but

I hope that this gave give you an

introductory understanding of how to

analyze the budget how to analyze

different themes if you did do press the

like button and subscribe and I'll see

you soon