How I got banned from sports betting (Using Maths) | Arbitrage Betting Explained

Summary

The speaker shares a high school math-based strategy for arbitrage betting, which involves taking advantage of different bookmakers' odds to guarantee profit without relying on luck. They explain how bookmakers make money by setting odds that always favor them, but reveal how finding skewed odds across different platforms can lead to risk-free betting opportunities. The speaker emphasizes the importance of research, understanding the strategy's complexities, and acknowledges the inevitable banning from bookmakers for consistent winners. This strategy is presented as a temporary way to make money and learn about mathematical betting.

Takeaways

• 🎲 The speaker deposited $200 into a sports betting account and eventually turned it into over $8,000 before being banned from the platform.
• 💡 The strategy used for betting is based on mathematics, specifically arbitrage betting or positive EV betting.
• 🔢 Arbitrage betting involves betting on all possible outcomes of an event with different bookmakers to guarantee a profit regardless of the result.
• 📊 Bookmakers typically offer odds that are less favorable than the true probability, ensuring they make a profit over time.
• 📈 To find fair odds, the formula used is 1 divided by the odds, which gives the implied probability of winning.
• 💵 By finding discrepancies in the odds offered by different bookmakers, one can place bets that cover all outcomes and still make a profit.
• 🤔 Arbitrage betting removes the risk by hedging bets, and it relies on finding mispriced odds across various bookmakers.
• ⚽ The speaker provides examples of different sports events where probabilities and odds can vary significantly between bookmakers.
• 📉 Implied probability sums for individual bookmakers are usually greater than 100%, but using the best odds from different bookmakers can reduce this sum and create arbitrage opportunities.
• 🛑 The main challenge with arbitrage betting is that bookmakers may eventually ban successful bettors who consistently make money through these strategies.

Q & A

What is the basic principle behind the betting strategy mentioned in the transcript?

The basic principle behind the betting strategy is mathematics, specifically arbitrage betting or positive EV (Expected Value) betting, which removes risk by hedging bets across different outcomes.

How do bookmakers generally make their money according to the transcript?

Bookmakers make money by offering odds that are underpriced compared to the true probability of an event occurring. This ensures that over time, the bookmaker always makes a profit, similar to how casinos operate.

What is arbitrage betting?

Arbitrage betting involves placing bets on all possible outcomes of an event across different bookmakers, ensuring that no matter the result, the bettor does not lose money and often guarantees a profit.

Why are odds offered by bookmakers often less favorable than the true probability?

Bookmakers offer less favorable odds to ensure they make a profit. They price the odds lower than the true probability to create a margin that benefits them.

Can you provide an example of how arbitrage betting works?

In a coin toss example, if one bookmaker offers odds of 1.90 for both heads and tails, and another offers 2.50 for both, a bettor can place bets on heads with the first bookmaker and tails with the second. Regardless of the outcome, the bettor makes a profit because the combined odds are more favorable than the actual probability.

Why might a bettor get banned from a bookmaker?

A bettor might get banned from a bookmaker for consistently making too much money through strategies like arbitrage betting, which can lead to significant profits at the bookmaker's expense.

What should one consider before starting arbitrage betting?

Before starting arbitrage betting, one should do thorough research, understand the mathematics behind it, be aware of potential betting limits, and be prepared for the possibility of being banned from bookmakers.

What are some potential risks or challenges associated with arbitrage betting?

Risks and challenges include quickly changing odds, betting limits imposed by bookmakers, and the potential for making mistakes, such as betting on the wrong outcome.

Why is mathematics important in arbitrage betting?

Mathematics is crucial in arbitrage betting because it allows bettors to calculate the true probability of outcomes, identify favorable odds, and ensure they place bets that guarantee a profit or minimize risk.

Is arbitrage betting a get-rich-quick scheme?

No, arbitrage betting is not a get-rich-quick scheme. It requires careful analysis, understanding of mathematics, and diligent monitoring of odds across different bookmakers.