Expect a Fed rate cut in September with quarterly cuts thereafter: JPMorgan's Michael Feroli
Summary
TLDR在这段视频脚本中,讨论了股市对政策变动的反应,特别是关于利率和经济增长的预期。Wells Fargo Securities的首席股票策略师Chris Harvey和JPMorgan的首席美国经济学家Mike Feroli分享了他们对市场轮动和利率削减的看法。他们认为,尽管市场对轮动持怀疑态度,但美联储的降息预期可能会对经济产生积极影响。同时,他们也讨论了特朗普总统任期和可能的共和党大获全胜对经济增长和通货膨胀的潜在影响,以及贸易和移民政策的不确定性。
Takeaways
- 📉 股票市场对于政策变动非常敏感,特别是关于利率的调整。
- 🤔 Wells Fargo Securities的股权策略主管Chris Harvey对市场轮动持怀疑态度,认为需要看到公司即使在负面消息下股价不跌,才能确认市场轮动。
- 📉 Chris Harvey认为目前市场对坏消息的反应是负面的,这表明市场轮动可能不可持续。
- 💹 尽管对市场轮动持怀疑态度,但Chris Harvey认为利率将会下降,因为美联储已经明确表示将降息。
- 📉 JPMorgan的首席美国经济学家Mike Feroli认为,基于当前经济情况,利率已经达到高点,将会下降。
- 🗓️ Mike Feroli提到他们将预期的降息时间从7月推迟到9月,之后预计会持续每个季度降息。
- 📊 Mike Feroli认为,考虑到过去一年通胀下降和失业率上升,美联储官员会注意到这些变化,并可能在下午2:30的讲话中提及。
- 💼 Mike Feroli暗示,如果劳动力市场继续恶化,美联储可能会加快降息的步伐。
- 🏦 Mike Feroli讨论了特朗普总统和共和党全面胜利对经济增长的影响,认为可能会有进一步的减税政策,但这也可能导致更高的赤字。
- 🔄 Mike Feroli指出,贸易和移民政策是未来的不确定性因素,可能会对商业环境产生影响。
- 📈 Mike Feroli认为,如果当前政策继续下去,赤字将继续增加,如果减税政策延长,情况可能会更糟。
Q & A
克里斯·哈维对于股市轮动持什么态度?
-克里斯·哈维并不反对股市轮动,但他和他的团队正在等待更多的证据来证明轮动的可持续性。他们希望看到即使公司发布不利消息,股价也不会下跌,这样他们才会相信轮动是可持续的。
为什么克里斯·哈维认为当前的股市轮动可能不可持续?
-克里斯·哈维认为,目前坏消息对股价的影响是负面的,这表明投资者对公司的未来收益持怀疑态度,因此他认为当前的股市轮动可能不可持续。
克里斯·哈维对联邦储备银行降息的预期是什么?
-克里斯·哈维认为联邦储备银行将会降息,并且他们已经非常积极地发出了这一信号。他还认为经济并不像人们想象的那么强劲,因此利率将会下降。
迈克·费罗利为什么将降息预期调整到9月?
-迈克·费罗利和他的团队将降息预期调整到9月,因为他们观察到过去一年的通胀已经显著下降,同时失业率也有所上升,这促使他们调整了预期。
迈克·费罗利如何看待美联储主席鲍威尔对CPI报告的反应?
-迈克·费罗利预计鲍威尔将会对最新的CPI报告持积极态度,因为他之前已经将5月的报告视为好消息,并且预计这一趋势将会继续。
如果特朗普再次当选,对经济增长和通胀有何影响?
-迈克·费罗利认为,如果特朗普再次当选,可能会有更多的减税政策,这将对经济增长有正面影响,但同时也可能导致更高的赤字和通胀风险。
迈克·费罗利如何看待贸易和移民政策对经济的不确定性?
-迈克·费罗利认为贸易和移民政策存在很多未知因素,这些政策的变化可能会给商业环境带来不确定性,就像2019年的贸易战对商业产生了冷却效应一样。
如果特朗普连任,是否会有更多的减税政策?
-迈克·费罗利认为,如果特朗普连任,很可能会有更多的减税政策,这些政策可能会延长到2025年之后,从而对经济增长有正面影响。
迈克·费罗利如何看待当前的财政赤字状况?
-迈克·费罗利认为,即使在当前政策下,财政赤字也没有处于良好的轨迹上,如果所有减税政策都延长,财政赤字问题可能会更加严重。
如果特朗普连任,是否会加快降息的步伐?
-迈克·费罗利认为,如果特朗普连任,并且劳动力市场继续恶化,那么美联储可能会比预期的更频繁地降息。
迈克·费罗利如何看待当前的就业市场状况?
-迈克·费罗利观察到失业率已经从最低点上升了0.7个百分点,并且美联储官员已经注意到了这一变化,这可能会影响他们对利率的决策。
Outlines
📉 股市政策影响与利率预期
在这段视频中,Wells Fargo Securities的股权策略主管Chris Harvey和JPMorgan的首席美国经济学家Mike Feroli讨论了政策对股市的影响。他们对市场轮动持怀疑态度,因为目前的盈利情况并不明朗。Harvey认为,除非像耐克、达美航空或沃尔格林这样的公司在负面消息下不下跌,否则市场轮动可能不可持续。Feroli则提到,尽管他们将利率下调的预期从7月推迟到9月,但美联储已经非常明确地表示将降息,并且他们认为经济并不像人们想象的那么强劲。此外,Feroli还提到了特朗普总统和共和党全面胜利对增长的潜在影响,以及贸易和移民政策的不确定性。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡政策
💡股市轮动
💡收益
💡美联储
💡利率
💡通货膨胀
💡失业率
💡特朗普
💡税收减免
💡财政赤字
💡贸易政策
Highlights
Chris Harvey表示,尽管不反对股票市场的轮动,但目前对轮动的可持续性持怀疑态度。
Chris Harvey认为,市场需要看到像耐克、达美航空、沃尔格林这样的公司在负面消息下不下跌,才能相信轮动。
Chris Harvey指出,目前坏消息仍然对市场产生负面影响,这表明市场对公司业绩的预期并不乐观。
Mike Feroli提到,美联储已经明确表示将降息,这是前所未有的积极信号。
Mike Feroli认为,经济并不像人们想象的那么强劲,因此利率将会下降。
Mike Feroli预计9月份将降息,并预计之后将有连续的季度降息。
Mike Feroli提到,过去一年通货膨胀显著下降,失业率上升,这影响了美联储的政策决策。
Mike Feroli预计,鲍威尔将在下午2:30的讲话中提到最新的CPI报告,并认为这将是好消息。
Mike Feroli讨论了7月份降息是否过早的问题,以及9月份之后降息的节奏。
Mike Feroli提到,如果劳动力市场继续恶化,美联储可能会加快降息的步伐。
讨论了特朗普总统和可能的共和党全面胜利对经济增长的影响,以及对通胀的风险。
Mike Feroli认为,如果出现全面红色胜利,可能会有更多的减税政策,这将有利于经济增长,但会增加赤字。
Mike Feroli提到贸易和移民政策是当前政策不确定性的主要因素。
Mike Feroli回顾了2019年贸易战对商业的冷却效应,并提到放松管制可能部分抵消这种影响。
Mike Feroli认为,我们正在进入一个政策不确定性普遍存在的环境。
讨论了在特朗普胜选概率上升时卖出债券的策略。
Mike Feroli认为,即使在当前政策下,赤字也不是在良好的轨迹上,如果延长所有减税政策,赤字问题将更加严重。
Transcripts
>> MEANTIME, I HAVE TO PAY
ATTENTION TO WHAT THE POLICY
MEANS FOR STOCKS.
WELLS FARGO SECURITIES, HEAD OF
EQUITY STRATEGY CHRIS HARVEY
WITH US.
AND JPMORGAN CHIEF U.S.
ECONOMIST MIKE FEROLI.
APPRECIATE YOU COMING ON IN AN
IMPORTANT DAY.
I THOUGHT ABOUT YOU BECAUSE YOUR
NOTE ABOUT ROTATION WHICH YOU
HAVE DOUBTS ABOUT BECAUSE OF
EARNINGS.
>> THAT'S RIGHT.
I THINK WE'RE NOT AGAINST THE
ROTATION, WE'RE JUST WAITING FOR
-- I THINK A LOT OF PEOPLE AND
INVESTORS ARE JUST NOT SURE
ABOUT THE E.
AND UNTIL WE START TO SEE
SITUATION WHERE'S A NIKE, A
DELTA, A WALGREENS DOESN'T GO
DOWN ON BAD NEWS, WE WON'T --
WE'RE NOT CONVINCED OF THE
ROTATION.
RIGHT?
WE WANT PEOPLE TO BELIEVE THAT
NUMBERS ARE GOING TO BE HIGHER,
THAT THINGS ARE GOING TO GET
BETTER.
BUT BAD NEWS RIGHT NOW IS BAD
NEWS.
AND THAT FOR US MEANS THAT THE
ROTATION'S PROBABLY NOT
SUSTAINABLE.
>> BUT THE RATE PART YOU THINK
IS COMING.
>> THE RATE PART IS COMING,
RIGHT.
THE FED IS OUT THERE SAYING,
HEY, WE'RE GOING TO CUT RATES.
THEY NEVER TELEGRAPHED IT THIS
AGGRESSIVELY BEFORE.
WE ALSO THINK THE ECONOMY'S NOT
AS STRONG AS PEOPLE THINK, AND
SO RATES ARE COMING DOWN.
I THINK WE TOP TICKED IT ON
RATES.
REALLY IT'S ABOUT THE E AT THIS
POINT IN TIME.
>> MIKE, MEANTIME, I THINK YOU
DID MOVE TO SEPTEMBER.
CAN YOU TALK ABOUT YOUR CAL
CLASS BEHIND THAT, AND I WONDER,
TOO, HOW YOU THINK POWELL WILL
RESPOND TODAY AS HE HAS HIS
FIRST CHANCE TO TALK ABOUT CPI.
>> YEAH, WE DID MOVE TO
SEPTEMBER ON THAT CPI REPORT.
WE'RE NOW LOOKING FOR A --
CONTINUING TO LOOK FOR QUARTERLY
CUTS THEREAFTER.
THE CALCULUS IS PRETTY SIMPLE
WHICH IS, YOU KNOW, IF YOU LOOK
BACK OVER THE PAST YEAR,
INFLATION IS DOWN QUITE
CONSIDERABLY AND UNEMPLOYMENT
RATE IS UP .7 FROM ITS LOW.
AND FED OFFICIALS HAVE BEEN
MAKING, YOU KNOW, CONSIDERABLE
NOTE OF THAT MOVE IN THE
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE.
AND I DO THINK, YOU KNOW, WE'RE
GOING TO HEAR FROM POWELL AT
2:30 TODAY.
I SUSPECT HE WILL HAVE THAT
LATEST CPI REPORT WITH MORE GOOD
NEWS THAN THE LAST TIME HE
SPOKE.
HE WAS ALREADY SEEING -- THE MAY
REPORT AS GOOD NEWS.
I THINK HE'LL SEE THAT CONTINUE.
THEN I THINK THE QUESTION REALLY
IS, YOU KNOW, IF YOU THINK JULY
IS TOO EARLY, WHICH WE AND MOST
PEOPLE DO, THEN WHAT WILL BE THE
TEMPO OF RATE CUTS AFTER THEY
START IN SEPTEMBER?
AS WE SAID, WE'RE AT A QUARTERLY
PACE.
YOU KNOW, IF THE LABOR MARKET
CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE, I
THINK THEY COULD POTENTIALLY GO
FASTER THAN THAT.
>> I WAS JUST TALKING ABOUT SOME
OF THE IMPLICATIONS FROM A
DONALD TRUMP PRESIDENCY AND
POTENTIAL REPUBLICAN SWEEP,
MIKE.
DO YOU SEE IT AS POSITIVE FOR
GROWTH WITH RISK TO INFLATION?
>> SO I THINK THERE'S A LOT OF
UNKNOWNS RIGHT NOW.
I THINK CERTAINLY ON GROWTH, IF
WE HAVE A RED SWEEP I THINK IT'S
LIKELY WE'RE GOING TO HAVE MORE
TAX CUTS -- MORE THAN THE 2017
TAX CUT EXTENDED AFTER ITS
CURRENT EXPIRATION IN LATE '25.
THAT CERTAINLY WOULD BE A
RELATIVE BENEFIT FOR GROWTH,
ALBEIT WITH HIGHER DEFICITS.
THEN I THINK THE BIG WILD CARD
-- AND I THINK YOU ALLUDED TO
THIS EARLIER, SARA -- IS ON
TRADE AND IMMIGRATION POLICY,
THERE ARE A LOT OF UNKNOWNS.
AND YOU KNOW, IF YOU GO BACK TO
2019, THE FIRST, YOU KNOW, TRADE
WAR DID HAVE A CHILLING EFFECT
ON BUSINESS.
AND AGAIN, PERHAPS SOME OF THAT
EFFECT CAN BE OFFSET BY
DEREGULATION.
I THINK WE'RE ENTERING AN
ENVIRONMENT OF PERVASIVE
UNCERTAINTY WHEN WE LOOK AT
POLICY NEXT YEAR.
>> DO YOU AGREE WITH THE URGE TO
SELL BONDS WHEN HIS ODDS GO UP?
>> WELL, I CERTAINLY THINK THE
DEFICIT IS NOT ON A GOOD
TRAJECTORY EVEN UNDER CURRENT
POLICY, AND IF WE EXTEND ALL THE
TAX CUTS WHICH WOULD PROBABLY
HAPPEN UNDER ALMOST ANY
SCENARIO, BUT PERHAPS A LITTLE
BIT MORE UNDER A RED WAVE, YOU
KNOW, YOU'RE LOOKING AT A PRET
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